有限区间内设备顺序预防性维护策略研究

为了克服等周期维护模型忽略设备可靠性要求,以及长期运行期望维护周期模型忽略设备特定阶段维护需求的缺点,通过引入基于役龄递减因子和故障率递增因子的混合式故障率演化规则,建立了有限区间内基于设备可靠性的顺序预防性维护优化模型,并以威布尔分布为例,利用仿真方法对其进行了优化。仿真结果显示,该模型可使设备的维护周期呈递减之势,反映了设备在某一特定阶段的可靠性需求。     

Reliability-based maintenance optimization under imperfect predictive maintenance

The reliability-based maintenance optimization model has been focused by the engineers and scholars but it has never been solved effectively to formulate the effect of a maintenance action on the optimization model.In existing works,the system reliability was assumed to be increased to 1 after a predictive maintenance.However,it is very difficult in the most practical systems.Therefore,a new reliability-based maintenance optimization model under imperfect predictive maintenance (PM) is proposed in this paper.In the model,the system reliability is only restored to Ri (0相似文献   

串并联衰退系统的多目标预防性维护优化建模

以多设备串并联衰退系统为研究对象,通过引入失效率调整因子,整合优化维护成本率和设备可用度,建立了一种设备层的单设备动态预防性维护的多目标决策模型。在此基础上,给出了多设备串并联系统成组维护的优化建模,提出了系统层的非周期预防性维护规划的优化方法。在模型中提出维修时间窗的概念,为降低系统层总维护成本,根据维修时间窗对逻辑串联设备组的维护作业进行作业合并,并对逻辑并联设备组的维护作业进行作业分离。数值实例结果表明,与各设备独立进行预防性维护相比,该建模方法更经济,可为多设备串并联系统的维护决策提供有力的支持。     

带缓冲区的三设备串行生产系统动态机会维护策略研究

以采用周定周期预防维护技术并带有中间缓存区的三设备串行生产系统为研究对象,基于机会结余和组成本理论,运用动态规划方法,在组合优化的基础上,建立一种基于设备可靠性的三设备串行系统动态机会维护策略及决策优化模型.该模型克服了在当前生产系统中设备只有短期信息可用,而导致预防性维护计划制定的灵活性不足这一问题.数值试验结果表明,该模型能在控制维护成本的基础上提供有效的维护调度方案,为企业的设备维护管理决策问题提供了一种新的解决思路.     

Multi-objective supply chain sourcing strategy design under risk using PSO and simulation

Sourcing strategy design in a supply chain is vital to gain competitive advantage. In recent years, supply chain risks are growing significantly and supplier failure is identified as one of the top supply chain risks. Researchers attempt to mitigate the negative impacts of supplier failure by applying strategies such as local versus global sourcing, single versus dual/multiple-sourcing, performance-based supply contracts, and optimizing the order allocation among suppliers. Global sourcing is a widely recognized strategy among firms, and it involves a trade-off between reliable, high-cost local suppliers and unreliable, low-cost offshore suppliers. The global sourcing is associated with the risks of exchange rate volatility, trade restrictions, longer lead time, and problems with supplier reliability. Sourcing strategy design considering price, exchange rate risks, and supplier delivery reliability is an important research topic and needs attention. In this work, a hybrid optimization and simulation approach is proposed to design the supply chain sourcing strategy. In the optimization approach, a multi-objective binary particle swarm algorithm is developed for minimizing the total cost and maximizing the supplier delivery reliability. Selected scenarios from the optimization results are modeled using Witness simulation software to evaluate the robustness of sourcing strategies under price, exchange rate and demand risks. The proposed approach is exemplified using a real-life case study of a plastic product manufacture in India.     

基于机会策略的复杂系统视情维修决策模型

针对部件间存在经济相关性的复杂系统,提出一类基于机会策略的视情维修优化模型。模型从部件本身的失效规律分析出发,确定不同失效模式下部件的维修方式及对应的预防性维修阈值。对于整个复杂系统的维修决策问题,借鉴机会维修思想,通过增加机会维修阈值,将时间和状态两类不同度量空间上的维修控制参数组合起来,解决系统层事后维修与视情维修的综合优化问题。同时利用更新过程理论,提出一类基于马氏决策过程的值迭代算法,确定系统的最优检测时间间隔与机会维修状态阈值。以某机械设备为例对机会维修决策模型和值迭代算法的有效性进行了验证。通过对比分析发现,应用模型能够降低系统的运行维护费用,如果部件级失效率之比在适当范围内,其经济相关性越强,节省费用的效率越高。     

自动化生产线中关键设备的预维护策略研究

为了避免由于设备故障导致的生产线停产,首先研究生产线故障维修成本、预防性维护成本和停产损失的计算方法,建立生产线平均可靠度与维护总成本多目标优化模型,从而获得了最优的生产线周期性维护计划。针对关键设备,如数控机床、工业机器人,运行状态突然严重劣化的情况,基于时间延迟理论得到了关键设备子系统可靠度随时间变化的规律,根据设备运行状态的监测数据,采用支持向量机模型对设备子系统潜在故障的发生概率进行预测。由此建立了关键设备延迟维护最佳时刻优化模型,并通过粒子群优化算法求解关键设备的最佳维护时刻。最后,通过实例仿真分析验证了文本预维护策略的有效性,能够在保证可靠度要求的同时,有效降低维护成本。     

工业设备预防性维修策略及其效果评估

采用随机变量评估工业设备预防性维修的效果,以单位时间平均维修费用最低为目标,并假定评估预防性维修效果的参数服从均匀分布,构建维修策略的优化模型并进行数值仿真.仿真结果表明,采用随机参数的预防性维修模型能有效降低故障率增长趋势,减少单位时间平均维修费用,具有更好的优化结果,可以为维修计划的制定和现场的作业调度提供决策支持.     

基于部分可观察马尔可夫决策过程的机电装备动态可靠性评价方法

针对机电装备运行维护问题,提出了基于部分可观察马尔可夫决策过程(POMDP)理论的动态可靠性评价方法。该方法将可靠性动态演变看成POMDP问题,通过不完全观测到的设备运行信息（如噪声、温度、压力等）,对可靠性状态进行估计,同时分析不同的维修行为对可靠性水平的影响规律,构建了基于状态转移的动态可靠性评价模型。然后,提出了以最小化维修成本费用和潜在故障危害为目标的维护策略制定方法,并通过案例分析验证了该方法的有效性,实现了机电装备动态可靠性的有效评价与维护策略的科学制订。     

Bayesian degradation assessment of CNC machine tools considering unit non-homogeneity

Field reliability assessment and prediction is critical for the estimation, operation and health management of CNC machine tools. The classical methods for field reliability of CNC Machine Tools assessment and prediction are challenged with the issues of expensive reliability tests, small sample size and unit non-homogeneity. In order to solve these problems, this paper introduces a degradation analysis based reliability assessment method for CNC machine tools under performance testing. Since the degradation is an independent increment process, the gamma process is employed to characterize the degradation process of CNC machine tools. The random effects are introduced to accommodate performance degradation model with unit non-homogeneity. The parameters of model are updated by Bayesian estimation approach. As a case study, the CNC Machine Tools is studied to illustrate the approach. And the proposed method is demonstrated precise for practical use.     

考虑故障风险的动车组部件预防性维护优化建模*

为了减小动车组部件的故障危害,以动车组四级修程时进行更换的部件为研究对象,通过引入故障风险因子,并结合我国动车组现行的多级非完美维护制度,建立一种考虑故障风险的动车组部件两级非完美顺序预防性维护模型。在顺序预防性维护模型的基础上,将维护方式进一步划分为初级维修和高级维修两种,通过经济性分析确定每一次维护的具体方式。对影响部件故障风险的各因素进行评分和权重,克服了以往模型仅考虑部件故障停机损失,忽视部件故障导致的其他危害的不足。以故障里程服从威布尔分布的部件进行算例分析,仿真结果表明,与不考虑故障风险制定出的预防性维护计划相比,该模型更具经济性和安全性,可为动车组部件的维护决策提供理论支持。     

考虑机会维修的等风险预防性维修策略优化

研究了对流水线生产系统进行等风险预防性维修策略优化的问题。预防性维修计划中包括不完全预防性维修和预防性替换，突发故障用最小维修处理。为了减少预防性维修造成的停产损失，一些预防性维修活动将根据机会维修阈值归并在一起进行。采用遗传算法在满足系统可靠性的前提下，以最小化维修成本为目标优化预防性维修计划。首先建立预防性维修的优化模型；然后设计了模型求解的遗传算法；最后在Emplant仿真环境下，将算法求解的最优预防性维修计划应用到生产系统仿真模型中进行评价，并与传统的故障替换策略进行了比较。     

Joint optimization of lot-sizing and maintenance policy for a partially observable two-unit system

In this paper, we present a new model to find the jointly optimal economic manufacturing quantity (EMQ) and preventive maintenance (PM) policy for a complex production facility. Unlike the previous joint models which dealt with EMQ and maintenance policy considering a single unit production facility and traditional maintenance approaches, we consider a production facility which consists of two modules with economic dependence. The more expensive module (unit 1) is subject to condition monitoring (CM), and only the age information of the second module (unit 2) is available, which follows a general distribution. The deterioration process of unit 1 is modeled as a continuous time hidden-Markov process. CM data is available at the end of each production run, and it provides only partial information about the hidden state of unit 1. The failure state of unit 1 is observable at any time. The objective is to develop a jointly optimal lot sizing and maintenance policy for a two-unit production facility using multivariate Bayesian control approach by minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. Also, a formula for the mean residual life (MRL) of the production facility is derived, which is an important statistic for practical applications. A practical example of the wind turbine CM and maintenance is provided and a comparison with other policies shows an outstanding performance of the new model and the control policy proposed in this paper.     

串行连续生产线的缓冲库存控制与可靠性研究

以可靠性理论为基础,建立了单元化的串行连续生产线模型,为保证连续生产的可靠性,研究了缓冲库存最小安全量的计算,同时研究了缓冲库存的补给,提出了非均匀节拍法,可有效保障安全库存量,具有一定的应用价值。对生产线的整体可靠度进行了研究,得到了其可靠性计算公式,从中可知生产的可靠性与设备故障率、修复率、缓冲库存量、生产节拍和时间相关。在最小成本原则基础上,提出了生产单元可靠度、设备故障率与维修率的设计方法,可供参考。     

[轨道交通运维技术]风险视角下的动车组部件多级非完美维修策略

为了降低动车组部件在一个寿命周期内的维修总成本,以动车组五级修程时需要更换的部件为研究对象,基于现行的分级检修制度,提出一种动车组部件多级非完美预防性维修策略。以故障对动车组运行安全和对动车组晚点的影响以及故障维修难易程度作为故障风险的评价指标,使用层次分析法和评分法量化评价部件的故障风险。将动车组部件非完美维修方式划分为初级维修、中级维修和高级维修三个级别,克服了以往模型中非完美维修方式单一、忽视实际维修中普遍采用多级非完美维修方式的不足。算例仿真结果表明,提出的维修策略可使动车组部件在一个寿命周期内保持更高的可靠度水平且总成本也有所减少。     

寿命型设备的预防维修策略研究

为解决寿命型设备在基于可靠度的预防维修下的经济维修策略问题,提出一种基于可靠度和经济性求解维修周期和维修时间策略的方法.基于可靠性理论,用维修度(维修时间的函数)近似描述维修降低的不可靠度比例,以可靠度和维修度服从指数分布为例,引入失效率递增因子和维修率递减因子,建立了设备可靠度与维修周期、维修时间的函数方程.基于该方程,以设备使用寿命内总收益为决策目标.建立了寿命型设备的预防维修周期和维修时间的策略模型.经优化计算得到不同参数下的预防维修策略.结果表明,寿命型设备的预防维修周期和维修时间呈先增长后缩短的趋势,且维修成本越高,维修次数和时间均越少.     

考虑动态折旧成本的动车组部件预防性维修决策模型

为研究部件自身价值变化对其维修决策的影响,以动车组四级修时需更换的部件为研究对象,结合我国动车组现行的多级非完美维修方式,建立了一种考虑动态折旧成本的动车组部件两级非完美预防性维修优化模型,该模型以动车组部件的等效役龄计算其相应的折旧成本。进一步研究了部件折旧成本与故障率变化相关联的维修决策方法。研究结果表明,与不考虑部件折旧成本的维修模型相比,该模型兼顾了部件的生产运行和维修活动对维修决策的影响,能够更好地平衡预防性维修成本和故障维修成本,使模型更具维修经济性。     

Cutting tools reliability and residual life prediction from degradation indicators in turning process

In the field of cutting tool reliability, an investigation based on four complementary approaches for tool wear assessment is proposed: the approach 1 is a general failure times approach (statistical reliability based on flank wear threshold hitting times), the approach 2 is based on power consumption monitoring (statistical reliability based on power threshold hitting times), the approach 3 is based on vibration signal analysis (statistical reliability based on vibration threshold hitting times), and the approach 4 is based on the evolution of flank wear for each insert (statistical reliability based on predicted failure times). For this study, 30 identical inserts from a same batch were studied with a CNC lathe in identical turning conditions. As the remaining useful life assessment is the final goal, this study highlight four approaches in order to find out the safest one. The results obtained showed that the approach 1 has too many uncertainties, whereas the approach 2 provides more specific and safer replacement times. The approach 3, in the first hand, highlights the fact that cutting conditions are not exactly identical and, in the second hand, leads to a safe conditional replacement of an insert. Finally, it appeared that the approach 4 allows applying a predictive maintenance strategy.     

基于可靠性的设备全寿命周期维修时刻决策建模研究

基于可靠性理论,研究了设备维修决策量化分析方法。阐述了预知性维修时刻对其设备安全性和经济性的影响,然后运用可靠性理论建立了以设备全寿命周期内单位时间维修费用支出最小为原则的最佳维修时刻优化模型。通过实例验证了该模型的正确性和实用性,可有效适用于设备最佳维修时刻的确定。     

考虑客流分布的动车组部件预防性维护决策

为探究客流分布不均的动车组部件维护策略的经济性,引入多项式拟合方法对波动客流进行分段量化,并提出客流分布不均的部件差异化停机损失成本函数,进而结合加速失效模型建立了以可靠度为约束条件的部件维护策略动态调整方法,通过对部件延迟维护可靠度阈值进行敏感性分析,确定了经济性最佳的维护策略调整方法。研究结果表明,考虑客流分布的维护模型能够更加准确地刻画部件的可靠度退化过程,在客流高峰期内对部件维护活动进行动态调整能够有效降低停机损失,该模型可为客流分布不均情况下制定维护计划提供参考。