Synthesis of System Dynamics Tools for Holistic Conceptualization of Water Resources Problems

Out-of-context analysis of water resources systems can result in unsustainable management strategies. To address this problem, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems driving a system??s overall behavior. System dynamics, a method for operationalizing systems thinking, facilitates holistic understanding of water resources systems, and strategic decision making. The approach also facilitates participatory modeling, and analysis of the system??s behavioral trends, essential to sustainable management. The field of water resources has not utilized the full capacity of system dynamics in the thinking phase of integrated water resources studies. We advocate that the thinking phase of modeling applications is critically important, and that system dynamics offers unique qualitative tools that improve understanding of complex problems. Thus, this paper describes the utility of system dynamics for holistic water resources planning and management by illustrating the fundamentals of the approach. Using tangible examples, we provide an overview of Causal Loop and Stock and Flow Diagrams, reference modes of dynamic behavior, and system archetypes to demonstrate the use of these qualitative tools for holistic conceptualization of water resources problems. Finally, we present a summary of the potential benefits as well as caveats of qualitative system dynamics for water resources decision making.     

Statutory Regulation of Water Quality in Modern Australia

Abstract

At the beginning of the 21st century, there has been recent development, in human historical terms, of substances that can cause serious harm to human health, and also development of remarkable new analytical technologies capable of detecting substances at the atomic level. Despite this, Australia, though an advanced country, has not implemented any mandatory water quality standards or developed a program similar to well established U.S. or European programs. Presented in this paper is an analysis of the statutory regulatory methods for domestic water in mainland Australia. First, the paper briefly reviews the need for mandatory regulations as opposed to voluntary guidelines. Second, the development of guidelines for drinking water by the National Health and Medical Research Council is reviewed, followed by the legislative requirements in each of the five mainland States of Australia. Drinking water guidelines have been used to assist planning and management and were not construed to be legally enforceable mandatory standards. Health Acts in each State remain the primary statutory defenders of water quality, and the variability between Acts is considerable. Third, other legislation that states the necessity of a high quality of water but does not guarantee its deliverance for all uses is referenced as miscellaneous provisions supporting the need for a comprehensive risk reduction water quality program. The main organizations that supply water in Australia are listed along with the nature of their obligations to supply a quality product. Each State has specific water sanctions that attempt to safeguard water quality, but the legal rights of customers have not advanced substantially. The major administrative scheme in Australia that can enforce quality is licensing, and is this limited to the urban regions of Victoria, New South Wales, and Western Australia.     

A Comparison of Water Policies for Sustainable Irrigation Management: The Case of India and Australia

A comparative analysis of irrigation related issues and effectiveness of water policies in India and Australia is conducted to help share the learning from each other’s experience in sustainable irrigation management. Keeping in pace with the global trend of implementing a sustainable water management program, India has adopted the concept of participatory irrigation management (PIM) while Australia has adopted irrigation management transfer (IMT) program. PIM in India is regarded as experimentation in diverse socio-economic settings with mixed results while IMT in Australia has achieved a high level of water use efficiency. Australian irrigation industry is currently driven by market mechanisms where water trading is expected to lead to greater efficiency. However, there are concerns that sole reliance on water use (or economic) efficiency objective may conflict with the objectives of social equity and ecological sustainability. Similar to Australia, there is an opportunity for water markets in India. However, conflict in the objectives of efficiency, equity and sustainability constrain the debate of establishing water markets in India. The comparative analysis indicates that despite both countries have a common goal of sustainable water management, their strategies differ. Nevertheless, India can emulate many of the Australian experiences in water policy reforms, entitlements, institutional arrangements, and corporate style of management while Australia can adopt the best Indian traditions of decentralized participatory and community management for sustainable irrigation water management.     

实施水资源统一管理,保障山西省水资源可持续利用

山西省属资源型缺水省份，水资源短缺已经成为经济社会发展和人民生活水平提高的“瓶颈”，在此形势下，必须理顺水资源管理体制，实现水资源统一管理，从而为实现山西省水资源的可持续利用提供战略保障。     

Strategic Water Resources Planning: A Case Study of Bangladesh

Many agrarian countries have heavily invested in large-scale water projects to promote their agricultural development. There have been, however, few attempts to devise strategic water resources planning accounting for the macroeconomic linkages ofagriculture. This article presents such a strategic water resourcesplanning framework for Bangladesh. First, a dynamic costminimization model is solved to compute the optimal investmentneeded in various water projects such that an agricultural growthtarget can be met. Next, the minimum cost solution is againderived accounting for the macroeconomic linkages of agriculture,which, under different macroeconomic scenarios, results innoticeably different policy implications for optimal waterplanning. These results suggest that the traditional sectoralapproaches of planning water investment projects are generallyinconsistent with the broader macroeconomic reality of Bangladesh.     

澳大利亚水资源优化调度及监控管理技术

澳大利亚采取分阶段实施、逐步完善的方法实现水资源（供水和防洪）的优化调度及监控管理，采取的主要技术有：计算机技术和GIS建立数据库管理系统；通过水文模拟和水力模拟建立供水需求模型和防洪预警系统；在与资产及财务等系统相联系后，采用鲁棒技术使系统更加优化；与自动控制设备相结合实现全系统的自动监控；具有人机友好的开放式管理系统；便于系统的更新和升级、易于与其他网络之间的资源共享。     

Accounting of Transboundary Ecocompensation Standards Based on Water Quantity Allocation and Water Quality Control Targets

In China, under the premise that the water quantity allocation and water quality control targets for transboundary rivers have been determined, ecocompensation between upstream and downstream areas is urgently needed in management practice when targets cannot be met in the transboundary section. A dynamic accounting method for ecocompensation standards needs to be established at the scientific level. However, the accounting method of the existing ecocompensation standards is not sufficient. The purpose of this study is to propose a transboundary compensation standard accounting method based on water quantity allocation and water quality control targets and to establish ecocompensation standard accounting formulas for the Shaying River watershed. The accounting process is as follows: the water quantity compensation standard in different water quantity scenarios is calculated from the perspective of the water resource value. By using the comprehensive pollution index method, the water quality compensation standard is calculated in different water quality scenarios, and the ecocompensation standard calculation formulas for watersheds are determined. As an application, 27 types of ecocompensation standard formulas for the Shaying River watershed were determined for 3 hydrological frequencies (50%, 75% and 95%), 3 water quantity scenarios (equal-quantity, excess-quantity and reduced-quantity discharging) and 3 water quality levels (equal-quality, inferior-quality and better-quality discharging). The results not only provide a compensation standard for the Shaying River but also provide a reference for the calculation of ecocompensation standards for other transboundary rivers in China with definite water quantity and water quality management objectives.

     

浅析水利工程区域平均供水成本

合理的水利形成机制必须具备五项内容：一是合理的供水成本；二是经济压力适宜的价值水平，三是科学的定额指标体系，四是可持续发展的价格构成，五是体现激励的供水管理体制，现行供水成本核算的基础规则有缺陷，成本核算的办法和内容不准确，不完整，供水成本费率取值不严密，不明确，由此而形成在同一区域供水成本差距很大，在一定程度上带来了物价部门，用水户和社会舆论对水管单位核算的供水成本不信任。用区域平均供水成本供替单个工程供水成本是消除现行的“成本核算办法”制度障碍的有效途径。     

水资源综合模拟与调配模型WAS(I):模型原理与构建

针对自然-社会水资源系统的复杂互馈机制科学问题,以及水资源管理应用需求,将水文学数值模拟和水资源适应性调配相结合,研究构建了概念性半分布式水资源综合模拟与调配模型WAS;提出了模型架构、单元划分、动态互馈模拟、计算公式和运行策略等WAS模型原理及方法,为自然-社会水资源复杂系统的模拟与科学调配提供支撑。     

水资源系统模拟模型及其应用

水资源系统模拟模型（简称HBSIM模型）是适合我国水资源规划特点的通用模拟模型．该模型借鉴了国内外同类模型的设计方法，在模型的通用性及模拟功能的实用性方面做了一些开创性工作，除能满足水资源系统的一般模拟需要外，还设立了水资源系统中各项工程的调度运用、水资源补偿调节、农业灌溉用水过程模拟，以及地表水和地下水联合调度等多项模拟功能，是一个包括来水、用水、输水、储水等工程在内的比较完整的水资源系统模拟模型．应用该模型对滦河流域水资源开发现状进行了评价分析．通过应用表明该模型对水资源规划工作有很强的适应性，可基本满足一般流域的实际模拟需要．     

加拿大的可持续水管理改革及其对我国构建“资源水利”体系的借鉴意义

198 7年后 ,加拿大的水利工作进入了可持续水管理的新阶段 .其特点是 :以构筑支撑社会可持续发展的水系统为水管理目标 ,以确保当代人和下代人用水权的平等为水管理道德理念 ,以水不仅是可供人类消费的物质资源 ,而且是生态系统的重要组成部分为水管理准则 ;通过将原来分布于政府诸多机构的水管理权集中于一个或少数几个机构的方式重组水管理机构 ;水管理机构普遍把生态系统方法作为可持续水管理的一种基本方法 ,将水与生态环境、社会经济等联在一起 ,将水管理与土地、森林等环境资源的管理联在一起 .中国今天的水管理工作不仅要为当代人服务 ,也要为后代人服务 .为实现我国水资源的可持续利用 ,在构建“资源水利”体系过程中 ,应通过重组水管理机构适当集中水政管理权 ;要重视将水资源的管理与其它资源的管理联系在一起 ,在规划和配置水资源时 ,多考虑生态环境和社会经济因素     

浅谈下坂地水利枢纽工程水价核定的必要性

在分析下坂地水利枢纽工程管理机制和供水运营机制的基础上,提出核算供水价格的必要性,并给出了核定供水价格的原则和依据,可为其他水利工程制定水价提供有价值的参考。     

基于系统动力学的某市水环境承载力动态变化研究

在对某市社会、经济、环境系统分析的基础上,建立了该市的水环境承载力系统动力学模型,针对目前该市水环境存在的问题提出了9种水环境保护模拟方案。通过对各个方案下水环境承载力的动态变化分析比较,确定出了符合该市社会经济可持续发展要求的最优方案,从而为该市走可持续发展道路提供了科学的决策依据。     

Probabilistic Water Demand Forecasting Using Projected Climatic Data for Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia

Long term water demand forecasting is needed for the efficient planning and management of water supply systems. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is adopted in this paper to quantify the uncertainties in long term water demand prediction due to the stochastic nature of predictor variables and their correlation structures. Three future climatic scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and four different levels of water restrictions are considered in the demand forecasting for single and multiple dwelling residential sectors in the Blue Mountains region, Australia. It is found that future water demand in 2040 would rise by 2 to 33 % (median rise by 11 %) and 72 to 94 % (median rise by 84 %) for the single and multiple dwelling residential sectors, respectively under different climatic and water restriction scenarios in comparison to water demand in 2010 (base year). The uncertainty band for single dwelling residential sector is found to be 0.3 to 0.4 GL/year, which represent 11 to 13 % variation around the median forecasted demand. It is found that the increase in future water demand is not notably affected by the projected climatic conditions but by the increase in the dwelling numbers in future i.e. the increase in total population. The modelling approach presented in this paper can provide realistic scenarios of forecasted water demands which would assist water authorities in devising appropriate management strategies to enhance the resilience of the water supply systems. The developed method can be adapted to other water supply systems in Australia and other countries.     

The Yellow River Basin: Water Accounting,Water Accounts,and Current Issues

Abstract

There is increasing recognition of the problems facing China in meeting the growing water demand in the Yellow River basin, the “cradle of Chinese Civilization” and a critically important agricultural and industrial region. Meaningful debate on the range and relative costs of options available to policy-makers in addressing the problem depend fundamentally on an accurate understanding of basin water resources. Unfortunately, the ability of outsiders to participate in the de bate and for Chinese, with their long history of water management, to contribute to similar discussions elsewhere in the world is hindered to some extent by a lack of understanding of differences in water accounting systems and concepts. This paper attempts to address this problem by describing the water accounting system used in the Yellow River basin and elsewhere in China. The paper shows that the primary difference between water accounting methodologies in the Yellow River and those typically applied elsewhere is related to supply accounting in general and groundwater accounting in particular. Although not currently included in its water accounting system, Chinese concepts of environmental water use, when included, will also differ substantially from those familiar to outside researchers. In terms of actual Yellow River balances, the paper highlights the apparent declining trend in basin rainfall and runoff and the dramatic growth in industrial and domestic water use. Together declining supply and rising demand will increasingly cause policy-makers to face hard choices in assessing their water planning options. These choices will only become more difficult as managers in the Yellow River, as elsewhere in the world, try to incorporate ecological needs in the water accounting equation.     

Water Law and Planning Frameworks Under Climate Change Variability: Systemic and Adaptive Management of Flood Risk

Climate change is predicted to bring more extreme climatic variability to Australia. Yet recent reforms to Australian water law and governance have typically focused on water scarcity, not floods. In the summer of 2010/2011, devastating floods in a major urban centre and in regional areas were powerful reminders of the need for more systemic and adaptive responses for water resources management. Using Queensland and Victoria as case studies, the article demonstrates how the water law frameworks in both states assume ‘stationarity’ through the adoption of standards such as the 1:100 year flood event probability—an assumption that climate change has rendered unreliable. The article then examines the consequences of reliance on these past modes, particularly in respect of land use planning measures for flood risk adaptation. Finally, this article considers systemic responses for improved flood management focussing on strategic government planning, driven in part by potential litigation in the courts, as well as more local ‘autonomous’ adaptation in community-based initiatives.     

An Integrated Model to Evaluate Losses in Water Distribution Systems

To evaluate non revenue water (NRW) and losses in water distribution networks a methodology is developed by applying “annual water balance” and “minimum night flow” analyses. In this approach the main NRW components such as leakage from reported and un-reported bursts and background leakage, with real or estimated data, enabling assessment of indices of leakage performance are evaluated. Also, a novel procedure is introduced in this paper that can determine the nodal and pipe leakage by using a hydraulic simulation model. Recognising the pressure dependency of leakage the total consumption is divided into two parts, one pressure dependent and the other independent of local pressure, and the hydraulic behaviour of the network is analyzed. A computer code is developed to evaluate all components of water losses based on the proposed methodology. For better representation of the results and management of the system, the outputs are exported to a GIS model. Using the capabilities of this GIS model, the network map and attribute data are linked and factors affecting network leakage are identified. In addition, the effects of pressure reduction are investigated. The model is illustrated by a real case study. The results show that the suggested model has overcome the shortcomings of the existing methodologies by accounting for the leakage and other NRW components in water distribution networks more realistically.     

Identifying Uncertainty Guidelines for Supporting Policy Making in Water Management Illustrated for Upper Guadiana and Rhine Basins

In recent years, guidelines have been developed for supporting water managers in dealing with uncertainty in integrated water resources management (IWRM). Usually such guidelines have concentrated on certain aspects of processes in IWRM, notably on uncertainty associated with the modelling process and monitoring data. While this is of undisputed importance for supporting water managers in making well balanced and informed decisions, less attention has been paid to guiding policy makers in where uncertainty may emerge when considering the whole water management process. In this paper it is assessed in what way the policy makers can benefit from support in accounting for uncertainty at various stages in the water management process. Point of departure is an analysis of a broad range of uncertainty guidelines and their categorization in the water management process using a recently developed framework. Emphasis is on linking sources of uncertainty to uncertainty guidelines from an applied point of view in water management by developing a way to assist water managers to deal with uncertainty in IWRM and make informed and robust decisions. To support this, the Upper Guadiana basin in Spain and three Rhine basins are used as cases for water management issues in which it is demonstrated how water managers potentially can benefit from uncertainty guidelines in support of policy making, for instance with respect to implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD).     

Development of a Combined Index to Evaluate Sustainability of Water Resources Systems

It is necessary to assess water resources sustainability for development and management of a large-scale water resources system with various components such as reservoirs, inter-basin water transfer, and consumers and stakeholders in various sectors including drinking, industry, fish farming, agriculture, and environment. For this purpose, in the present study, a spatially-distributed model was developed based on the system dynamics approach. Then, a set of individual indexes were utilized to evaluate the behavior of a water resources system by considering quantitative/qualitative environmental, economic, and water productivity aspects. Each of the individual indexes was computed for all system nodes. A combined index was further developed and applied to evaluate the system sustainability. To evaluate the efficiency of the combined index and ensure its proper performance, the new method was compared with the well-known multi-criteria decision making method. The results indicated that the combined index was 15.315 for sustainable development with implementation of an integrated water management policy, while the index for the current condition was 15.361. For other management policies that were not based on the integrated management concept, the values of the combined index were higher than those for the current condition.

     

What is Public Participation in Water Resources Management and Why is it Important?

Abstract:

Australia has undergone comprehensive water policy reforms since the mid‐1990s. These reforms have imposed considerable uncertainties with respect to future supply and passed the risk management burden from water authorities to irrigators. There is, therefore, an increased need for risk management tools to assist irrigators in managing this increased uncertainty. Water markets are seen as important tools for managing this uncertainty and in assisting irrigation communities in the necessary adjustment process. Australia, therefore, provides an excellent case study in the extent to which irrigators have used markets as a risk management tool. It is concluded that allocation markets have been used by irrigators to manage uncertainty and risk within and between seasons while entitlement markets have been used to adjust irrigators’ risk position in the long term, resulting in subsequent use of the allocation market to manage this new risk position. However, there is clear evidence that the substantial uncertainty with respect to future supply has made irrigators reluctant to use the entitlement market and has therefore seen them rely heavily on the allocation market to manage their existing risk position. Also, existing water trading arrangements are impeding new investments in high value, efficient production systems. To address these two issues and to remove these impediments a new National Water Initiative is presently being implemented.