Decision support for foreign investment strategy under hybrid uncertainty

Empirical evidences show that Japan-based companies moved their major operations to the USA due to the currency appreciation of Japanese Yen in 1980s. However, the multinational firms moving their operations abroad still face both the risk of foreign price and the risk of foreign exchange rate. According to the purchasing power parity (PPP) and interest rate parity (IRP), the foreign exchange rate has associations with the relative price and the relative interest rate between two countries. Therefore, when the price and the interest rate evolve stochastically as proposed by many scholars, we can anticipate the randomness of the foreign exchange rate. By integrating these three sources of risks as a hybrid uncertainty, we propose a framework for corporate valuation and investment strategy. We analytically derive corporate value for those multinationals in question and then numerically obtain the real option value by Monte Carlo simulations, based on which we investigate the optimal entry strategy. The sensitivity for corporate value, optimal entry time, and real option value are analyzed. The results suggest a decision support process for foreign investment timing strategy under the hybrid uncertainty. The managerial implication of this work is that the optimal investment strategy for the multinational firms with foreign operations depends on some market and risk factors, as well as correlations among them.     

A comprehensive framework for project selection problem under uncertainty and real-world constraints

This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for project selection problem under uncertainty and subject to real-world constraints, like segmentation, logical, and budget constraints. The framework consists of two main phases. In the first phase, the candidate projects are ranked considering the uncertainty, through a Monte Carlo simulation linked to a multi-criteria approach. In the second phase, the overall complete preorder of the projects in different iterations is first determined and then used in another Monte Carlo simulation linked to an integer programming module in order to effectively drive the final portfolio selection while satisfying the budget, segmentation and other logical constraints. The proposed framework is implemented in a case study to show its usefulness and applicability in practice. Finally, a comparison is carried out between the proposed approach and its deterministic counterpart and the corresponding results are discussed.     

Computation of the effects of uncertainty in volatility on option pricing and hedging

We quantify the effect of uncertainty in the volatility parameter σ on the Black–Scholes price of the European and American put. We apply probabilistic uncertainty analysis to the Black–Scholes model and compare the results with those of the Uncertain Volatility model. From historical data, we calibrate a probability distribution for the volatility. We then use Monte Carlo (MC) and a surrogate Polynomial Chaos (PC)/MC method to compute uncertainty bounds. The calibrated probability distribution is not one related to a standard orthogonal basis, so a basis is constructed numerically for the PC approximation. We show how to construct one stably from the probability distribution. We show that both methods give the same results, and quantify the relative speedup of the surrogate method. Finally, we investigate the effect of the parametric uncertainty, and show, for example, that the presence of uncertainty smoothes out the optimal exercise boundary of the American put.     

不确定性数据的超球支持向量机分类方法

针对区间不确定性数据的分类问题,提出一种基于超球支持向量机的多分类方法。采用超椭球凸集模型描述数据的不确定性信息;建立超球支持向量机的不确定约束规划模型,将其转化为两层嵌套约束规划问题;通过上下两层子优化交替迭代寻优的方法求解最优超球面,利用泰勒展开法,直接推导下层子优化线性近似问题的最优解,以降低计算复杂度。实验结果表明,该方法具有较高的分类精度及较好的抗噪性和鲁棒性,适合解决区间不确定性数据多分类问题。     

Comparison of interval and Monte Carlo simulation for the prediction of postprandial glucose under uncertainty in type 1 diabetes mellitus

In this paper, the problem of tackling uncertainty in the prediction of postprandial blood glucose is analyzed. Two simulation approaches, Monte Carlo and interval models, are studied and compared. Interval simulation is carried out using modal interval analysis. Simulation of a glucoregulatory model with uncertainty in insulin sensitivities, glucose absorption and food intake is carried out using both methods. Interval simulation is superior in predicting all severe and mild hyper- and hypoglycemia episodes. Furthermore, much less computational time is required for interval simulation than for Monte Carlo simulation.     

Improved algorithm for tolerance allocation based on Monte Carlo simulation and discrete optimization

The allocation of design and manufacturing tolerances has a significant effect on both manufacturing cost and quality. This paper considers nonlinearly constrained tolerance allocation problems. The purpose is to minimize the ratio between the sum of the manufacturing costs (tolerances costs) and the risk (probability of the respect of geometrical requirements). The techniques of Monte Carlo simulation and genetic algorithm are adopted to solve these problems. As the simplest and the popular method for non-linear statistical tolerance analysis, the Monte Carlo simulation is introduced into the frame. Moreover, in order to make the frame efficient, the genetic algorithm is improved according to the features of the Monte Carlo simulation. An illustrative example (hyperstatic mechanism) is given to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach.     

A new algorithm based on copulas for VaR valuation with empirical calculations

This paper concerns the application of copula functions in VaR valuation. The copula function is used to model the dependence structure of multivariate assets. After the introduction of the traditional Monte Carlo simulation method and the pure copula method we present a new algorithm based on mixture copula functions and the dependence measure, Spearman’s rho. This new method is used to simulate daily returns of two stock market indices in China, Shanghai Stock Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Composite Index, and then empirically calculate six risk measures including VaR and conditional VaR. The results are compared with those derived from the traditional Monte Carlo method and the pure copula method. From the comparison we show that the dependence structure between asset returns plays a more important role in valuating risk measures comparing with the form of marginal distributions.     

Modelling decision support and uncertainty for large transport infrastructure projects: The CLG-DSS model of the Øresund Fixed Link

This paper presents a decision support system, named the CLG-DSS model, which makes it possible for decision makers to assess various uncertainties in project appraisal in a systematic and explicit way. This model, a decision support system (DSS) developed within the Danish Centre for Logistics and Freight Transport (CLG) is based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) embedded in a wider multi-criteria analysis (MCA) by the use of some principles for composite modelling assessment (COSIMA). The CLG-DSS model is set up to make use of scenario analysis (SA) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). A particular concern in the model is the handling of varying information across the assessment criteria and the application of SA to inform the MCS parameter setting. After the presentation of the modelling principles some ex-post case calculations for the Øresund Fixed Link are illuminating different aspects of appraisal uncertainty and thereby, at the same time, demonstrate the features of the CLG-DSS model as a useful decision support tool. It is finally concluded that appraisal of large infrastructure projects can be effectively supported by dealing with uncertainty issues in accordance with the principles described.     

基于计算机仿真和层次分析法的船舶泊靠港选择决策支持

以港口作业计算机仿真模型为基础,阐述船舶泊靠港选择中港口这一复杂对象所涉及的主要因素,构造港口选择决策AHP模型层次结构中的准则,建立数学模型进行定量分析,并得到有效验证.     

基于鲁棒估计的动态数据校正方法

针对目前动态数据校正方法存在的缺陷，本文在以前的工作基础上把基于鲁棒估计原理构造的鲁棒估计函数用于含异常点类型的过失误差的数据校正，Monte Carlo模拟结果及对TE问题的校正计算结果表明，这种基于鲁棒估计的过换误差侦破和数据协调同步方法可以在得到协调数据的同时很准确的侦破和识别出测量数据中所含的过失误差，具有较强的优越性。     

An optimization method for designing type-2 fuzzy inference systems based on the footprint of uncertainty using genetic algorithms

This paper proposes an optimization method for designing type-2 fuzzy inference systems based on the footprint of uncertainty (FOU) of the membership functions, considering three different cases to reduce the complexity problem of searching the parameter space of solutions. For the optimization method, we propose the use of a genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize the type-2 fuzzy inference systems, considering different cases for changing the level of uncertainty of the membership functions to reach the optimal solution at the end.     

A heuristic algorithm based on Monte Carlo methods for the Rural Postman Problem

In Routing Problems the aim is to determine a minimum cost traversal over a graph satisfying some specified constraints. Most of them are NP-hard problems and many different heuristic solution algorithms have been proposed. The name Monte Carlo, MC, applies to a set of heuristic procedures with the common feature of using random numbers to simulate a given process. MC approach has not been applied to the framework of Routing Problems in the literature. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that MC methods could be useful in implementing heuristic algorithms for Routing Problems. In particular, we design an efficient MC heuristic algorithm for the well known Rural Postman Problem (RPP), for which we have a set of instances with known optimal solution taken from the literature.The Rural Postman Problem (RPP) consists of finding a minimum cost traversal of a specified arc subset of a graph. Given that the RPP is a NP-hard problem, heuristic algorithms are interesting both to handle large size instances and to provide upper bounds that could be used in branch and cut procedures. In this paper we propose a heuristic algorithm for the RPP based on Monte Carlo methods. We simulate a vehicle travelling randomly over the graph, jumping from one node to another on the basis of certain probabilities. Monte Carlo methods provide a simple approach to many different Routing Problems and they are easily implemented in a computer code. The application of this algorithm to a set of RPP instances taken from the literature demonstrates that, using the appropriate probabilities, they are also efficient.     

Lifetime analysis based on the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

In this paper, we consider a family of generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distributions and present a lifetime analysis based mainly on the hazard function of this model. In addition, we carry out maximum likelihood estimation by using an iterative algorithm, which produces robust estimates. Asymptotic inference is also presented. Next, the quality of the estimation method is examined by means of Monte Carlo simulations. We then provide a practical example to illustrate the obtained results. From this example and based on goodness-of-fit methods, we show that the GBS distribution results in a more appropriate model for modeling fatigue data than other models commonly used to model this type of data. Finally, we estimate the hazard function and the critical point of this function.     

云计算平台全生命周期安全运维体系探究

结合云计算平台现状和工作实际,针对其安全运维体系的缺失,提出了全生命周期的安全运维体系．并对全生命周期中各个阶段的安全运维要求及要点进行了详细阐述和说明。     

Computer Aided Tolerancing (CAT) platform for the design of assemblies under external and internal forces

Due to the stochastic nature of manufacturing processes, the functionality of mechanical assemblies is subject to variation defined by tolerances and manufacturing process characteristics. In many assemblies, functionality is also dependent on external and internal forces. Numerous Computer Aided Tolerancing (CAT) tools have been proposed that address tolerance analysis problems in complex mechanical assemblies; however current tools do not accommodate a general class of problem where the functionality of a design is fundamentally dependent on the effects of external and internal forces. This research addresses the limitation of CAT tools to accommodate assemblies under loading by developing a tolerance analysis platform which integrates CAD, CAE and statistical analysis tools using Process Integration and Design Optimisation (PIDO) software capabilities. The platform extends the capabilities of traditional CAT tools by enabling tolerance analysis of assemblies in which assembly characteristics are dependent on external and internal forces. To demonstrate the capabilities of the developed platform, examples of tolerance analysis problems involving external forces (compliance) and internal forces (multi-body dynamics) are presented.     

A decision support system for the automatic management of keep-clear signs based on support vector machines and geographic information systems

This paper presents a decision support system for automatic keep-clear signs management. The system consists of several modules. First of all, an acquisition module obtains images using a vehicle equipped with two recording cameras. A recognition module, which is based on Support Vector Machines (SVMs), analyzes each image and decides if there is a keep-clear sign in it. The images with keep-clear signs are included into a Geographical Information System (GIS) database. Finally in the management module, the data in the GIS are compared with the council database in order to decide actions such as repairing or reposition of signs, detection of possible frauds etc. We present the first tests of the system in a Spanish city (Meco, Madrid), where the systems is being tested for its application in the near future.     

基于Monte Carlo随机模拟的综合交通网络布局评价与决策方法

针对综合交通网络评价指标权重及属性值具有主观性和随机性的特点,提出了基于模拟运算的布局规划方案排序选优的群体随机决策方法.仿真生成满足集结的多个专家对指标重要性偏好排序统计分布的权重,同时考虑交通需求的不确定性对指标值的影响,结合客观熵权计算方案的综合评价值,由多次模拟得到的排序优势度确定方案的优劣差异.根据设计的仿真流程通过算例说明了方法应用的有效性,评价中考虑了主客观因素及随机性特征,可以为网络布局提供科学决策依据.     

Prediction for Pareto distribution based on progressively Type-II censored samples

In this paper, we discuss different predictors of times to failure of units censored in multiple stages in a progressively censored sample from Pareto distribution. The best linear unbiased predictors, maximum likelihood predictors and approximate maximum likelihood predictors are considered. We also present two methods for obtaining prediction intervals for the times to failure of units. A numerical simulation study involving two data sets is presented to illustrate the methods of prediction.     

Heuristics for the probabilistic traveling salesman problem with deadlines based on quasi-parallel Monte Carlo sampling

The Probabilistic Traveling Salesman Problem with Deadlines (PTSPD) is a Stochastic Vehicle Routing Problem with a computationally demanding objective function. In this work we propose an approximation for that objective function based on Monte Carlo Sampling and using the novel approach of quasi-parallel evaluation of samples. We perform comprehensive computational studies that reveal the efficiency of this approximation. Additionally, we examine different Local Search Algorithms and present a Random Restart Local Search Algorithm for solving the PTSPD together with an extensive computational study on a large set of benchmark instances.     

A metaheuristic framework for stochastic combinatorial optimization problems based on GPGPU with a case study on the probabilistic traveling salesman problem with deadlines

In this work we propose a general metaheuristic framework for solving stochastic combinatorial optimization problems based on general-purpose computing on graphics processing units (GPGPU). This framework is applied to the probabilistic traveling salesman problem with deadlines (PTSPD) as a case study. Computational studies reveal significant improvements over state-of-the-art methods for the PTSPD. Additionally, our results reveal the huge potential of the proposed framework and sampling-based methods for stochastic combinatorial optimization problems.