A methodology for selecting portfolios of projects with interactions and under uncertainty

Effective project evaluation and selection strategies can directly impact organizational productivity and profitability. Numerous analytical techniques ranging from simple weighted scoring to complex mathematical programming approaches have been proposed to solve these problems. However, traditional project selection methods too often fail to consider both the uncertainties in projects and the interaction among projects. Some prior studies have considered the interaction among projects in deterministic environments. Others have dealt with stochastic environments but have not considered project interdependencies. This study aspires to fill this gap in the project portfolio selection literature. Information system/information technology (IS/IT) projects are used in this study because they are frequently subject to uncertainties due to estimation difficulties and bounded by interactions due to technological interdependencies. We use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to select the best portfolio of IS/IT projects while taking both project uncertainties (modeled as fuzzy variables) and project interactions into consideration simultaneously. We also present a numerical example to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework and exhibit the efficacy of the procedures.     

改进的多项目交互组合选择优化模型

项目组合选择（ProjectPortfolioSelection,PPS）是多项目管理中的一个重要的决策问题。从大量的候选项目中选出最优的项目组合非常困难,尤其是项目间存在交互作用。以往很多研究考虑了两两交互的项目组合选择问题,但在考虑3个或者3个以上项目间的交互作用时存在缺陷。提出一个改进的多项目交互组合选择优化模型,考虑3个或者以上项目间存在交互作用的复杂情况,并用NSGA-II算法有效地求解该模型,算例分析表明了该模型和算法的有效性。     

Optimizing project selection and scheduling problems with time-dependent resource constraints

This study presents an optimization model using constraint programming (CP) for project selection and scheduling problems with time-dependent resource constraints. A generic model is proposed to maximize the total profit of selected projects for construction and R&D departments given scheduling problems with various resource constraints during specified time intervals, including consumed and renewable resource limitations. Due to different periodical procurement strategies and annual budget concerns, this research considers various practical limitations for scheduling and allocating resources, such as budget limitations and resource constraints. For additional practicality, the optimization model integrates a project selection mechanism, scheduling precedence, and relationships between projects. To illustrate the model capabilities for solving project selection and scheduling problems, the current study presents two scenarios for maximizing profit, including fifteen candidate projects with time-dependent resource constraints. Analysis results demonstrate that the proposed model allows planners to determine an optimal portfolio with specified resource constraints according to various time intervals, and benefits decision-making for project selection and scheduling.     

基于DEA 的建设工程项目组合配置协同评价研究

随着建筑市场的不断发展和扩大,建设工程多项目管理逐渐成为一项新兴的管理模式。建设工程多项目管理不确定性高、影响关系复杂,现有的单项目管理理论未能将多项目间的复杂协同关系纳入管理过程中,难以为建设工程项目组合协同管理提供支撑。为解决此问题,提出了建设工程项目组合配置协同效果评价指标体系,采用数据包络分析模型（DEA）构建了建设工程项目组合配置协同效果评价模型。并通过案例分析证明了所构建评价模型能够有效量化项目组合配置协同效果,缩小项目组合选择范围,为协同视角下的建设工程项目组合管理提供理论依据。     

Centralized bid evaluation for awarding of construction projects – A case of India government

Reviewing the procedures of contractor selection in government departments in various countries and in the Rural Development Department (RDD) in India, this paper brings out several weaknesses of the current contractor selection procedure. It suggests a centralized contractor evaluation process with the inclusion of three new selection attributes along bid price. The suggested attributes are: (1) time quoted to complete the project, (2) warranty period quoted, and (3) past performance score of the contractor. To solve the resulting multi-objective decision-making problem, the paper proposes a binary goal programming model. When tested with the existing contractor selection procedure for six past projects in RDD, the model yields the same results as those taken by RDD in the past, confirming the credibility of the model. When tested with the suggested procedure, the model yields much superior results.     

Modeling project criticality in IT project portfolios

Today's IT project portfolios (ITPP) contain many projects and varied interdependencies. Depending on a project's criticality to the ITPP, a failure can have massive consequences. However, existing methods usually only assess overall project portfolio risk and do not account for the criticality of single projects and their dependencies. Applying Bayesian network modeling to ITPPs, we bridge this gap and extend the current body of knowledge for the information systems and project management literatures. Our new method analyzes single projects' criticality in a portfolio context by considering both transitive dependencies and different dependency types in an integrated way. Since we demonstrate that single projects' criticality can vary substantially, being aware of which projects are critical is a key success factor for ITPP management. For practitioners, our method provides a straightforward procedure to enhance ITPP risk management.     

A Real Option based Six Sigma project evaluation and selection model

Identification and selection of Six Sigma projects are one of the most frequently discussed issues in the Six Sigma literatures today. In this paper a two-stage methodology has been proposed based on (i) Real Option Analysis for evaluating the value of the project to improve the managerial flexibility (ii) a zero–one integer linear programming model for selecting and scheduling an optimal project portfolio, based on the organization's objectives and constraints. The methodology is illustrated through a case study from petrochemical industry carried out during 2007. The study contributes to managerial practices by identifying a new way of valuing the Six Sigma projects through Real Option Analysis by considering various kinds of risks. Resource-constrained environment has been chosen to test the proposed approach of selection of project portfolio and the model is validated with a detailed discussion.     

SCHEDULING OF NONSERIAL LINEAR PROJECTS WITH MULTIPLE NON-OVERLAPPED LOOP STRUCTURES

Existing dynamic programming formulations are utilized for the scheduling of serial linear projects. These formulations cannot, however, be used for the scheduling of nonserial linear projects. The intent of this paper is to present a nonserial dynamic programming formulation for the scheduling of linear projects with multiple non-overlapped loop structures. The objective of the nonserial dynamic programming solution is to provide for the selection of resources, interruptions, and lags for production activities that lead to the minimum project duration. The advantages of this nonserial dynamic programming approach include its ability to handle work interruption and variable production rates. In addition, the developed system produces a graphical representation of the project schedule of minimum duration. A nonserial linear project is treated herein using the proposed method.     

Selection of maintenance,renewal and improvement projects in rail lines using the analytic network process

This paper addresses one of the most common problems that a railway infrastructure manager has to face: to prioritise a portfolio of maintenance, renewal and improvement (MR&I) projects in a railway network. This decision-making problem is complex due to the large number of MR&I projects in the portfolio and the different criteria to take into consideration, most of which are influenced and interrelated to each other. To address this problem, the use of the analytic network process (ANP) is proposed. The method is applied to a case study in which the Local Manager of the public company, who is responsible for the MR&I of Spanish Rail Lines, has to select the MR&I projects which have to be executed first. Based on the results, it becomes evident that, for this case study, the main factor of preference for a project is the location of application rather than the type of project. The main contributions of this work are: the deep analysis done to identify and weigh the decision criteria, how to assess the alternatives and provide a rigorous and systematic decision-making process, based on an exhaustive revision of the literature and expertise.     

A decision-making system for construction site layout planning

A decision-making system, which consists of input, design, evaluation and selection, and output stages, is proposed to solve dynamic, multi-objective and unequal-area construction site layout planning (CSLP) problem. In the input stage, the multiple objectives, schedule planning and site condition are determined. In the design stage, two mathematical optimization models max-min ant system (MMAS) and modified Pareto-based ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithm are employed to solve single objective optimization (SOO) and multi-objective optimization (MOO) problem respectively. In the evaluation and selection stage, the intuitionistic fuzzy TOPSIS method is used to evaluate and select the best layout plan among the generated layout alternatives from the design stage. The performance of the proposed decision-making system, which was verified by a residential building project, shall assist the practitioners in the construction industry to deliver construction projects in a more efficient and effective manner, and thus construction costs could be reduced significantly.     

Microfoundations of project portfolio regulation in joint university-industry laboratories

Joint university-industry laboratories (joint U-I labs) consist of a new, yet little understood model of academic partnership with the firms, typically involving the establishment of a collaborative research unit to conduct research and development (R&D) projects. This type of collaboration faces an ongoing challenge in dealing with the tension between the development and deployment focus in the project portfolio. While several studies have investigated project portfolio management in a given firm, little is known about the interorganizational portfolio management and how the actors manage tensions in joint U-I labs. This study aims to investigate the microfoundations of project portfolio management in joint U-I labs. By combining the multiple-case study and at-home ethnography methods, we identified that the regulation approach explains how partners in joint U-I labs dynamically adjust and manage the project portfolio. Based on the empirical findings, we propose a new framework for project portfolio management in joint U-I labs: portfolio regulation. This framework consists of four processes: dual scouting, dual matchmaking, joint selection, and bridgemaking. These microfoundations enable actors to strategically regulate the portfolio by increasing/decreasing resources related to development or deployment. Our study explores how portfolio regulation evolves within a joint U-I lab through four stages: formation, learning, reconfiguration, and joint portfolio. The proposed framework contributes to interorganizational R&D portfolio management theory and joint U-I lab portfolio management practice.     

Resource interdependence and project termination: An analysis in the biopharmaceutical industry

Firms typically manage project portfolios with specific characteristics, including lengthy and high-risk projects with many similarities in human and technological resources and whose sequence and movement through the pipeline create longitudinal interdependencies. Interdependencies increase the complexity of project portfolios and create constraints in decision-making. This paper focuses on resource interdependencies and aims deepen our understanding of the extent to which resource interdependencies affect project termination. We study a sample of 417 new biotechnology-based drug discovery and development projects initiated by 25 biopharmaceutical SMEs. To test the hypotheses, we employ survival analysis and model terminations as a conditional probability and a corresponding hazard function. Our results show that for drug development projects, only certain types of interdependencies have a significant effect.     

夏热冬暖南区高层住宅建筑节能决策的研究与应用

利用动态规划原理建立了节能决策问题的数学模型,列出建筑节能方法。采用高层建筑项目统计数据,并用案例验证了动态规划原理可应用于节能决策。     

多项目分阶段开发决策的动态规划模型研究

针对房地产开发中多项目开发的优化决策问题,通过建立有针对性的项目开发方案评估体系,在完成对各项目的开发方案评估的基础上,将多项目的优化决策转换为多阶段优化决策,以所有项目的总效益达到最优为目标,创新性地运用动态规划的方法来求解最优的多项目开发策略。实证研究表明:文章所建立的决策方法和动态规划模型是有效的,并且能够针对项目外部及内部变化做出相应调整,体现了该动态规划模型的适用性。     

Recent developments in engineering education

The use of portfolio theory allows the consideration of correlation between projects and may rationalize the selection of the projects and capital budgeting. Positive coefficient of correlation increases the risk for a portfolio, while negative coefficient decreases the risk. On the other hand, the expected return of a portfolio may increase or decrease due to project correlation. The correlation between projects is due to several casual factors which are of different importance and contribution to project correlation. The importance and the level of contribution of each factor can be estimated based on experience and judgement. Experience and judgement may easily be expressed in semantic measures rather than mathematical terms. Classical portfolio theory fails to incorporate subjective information. The semantic measures can be translated into mathematical values using the fuzzy set theory. A method by which project correlation may be estimated based on experience and judgement is proposed. The method utilizes the fuzzy set theory to estimate the coefficient of correlation and the judgement uncertainty. Then, the total risk of a portfolio can be estimated.     

Relationships between project governance and information technology governance and their impact on project performance

This research endeavors to address the question of how to enhance project performance through exploring the relationships among information technology (IT) governance, project governance and project performance. The research utilizes an empirical survey methodology. The survey of 533 working professionals in various industries renders 282 usable responses or a response rate of 53.91%. The results suggest that both IT governance and project governance have a positive impact on project performance. Moreover, we found that three dimensions of IT governance (i.e., strategy setting, value delivery, and performance management) are positively associated with project performance while all three dimensions of project governance (i.e., portfolio direction, project sponsorship as well as project effectiveness & efficiency, and disclosure & reporting) are positively associated with project performance. Additionally, the alignment between IT governance and project governance is also found to be positively associated with project performance. These findings provide evidence to project management professionals in regard to IT governance and project governance being part of the operational strategy in facilitating the success of projects. It also demonstrates the importance of the alignment strategy between IT governance and project governance in enhancing project performance.     

Object–Oriented Enterprise Modeling and Simulation of AEC Projects

In this paper we describe an object–oriented framework for developing enterprise models of Architecture, Engineering, Construction projects, and a methodology for formalizing these models such that they can be used for discrete event simulation of information processing and coordination in project execution. The simulation results can be used to predict the probable effects of carrying out proposed changes in planning and managing projects.
In our enterprise modeling framework we represent engineering design projects in terms of deliverables (requirements and solutions), plans (activities and process relations), and organization (participants and organizational relations). The resulting project model is the starting point for identifying coordination requirements between project team participants. Our methodology uses matrix techniques derived from qualtiy function deployment (QFD) to identify interactions between project requirements and solutions and calculate measures of product complexity . We then describe information flow between project activities in a similar matrix and calculate measures of process uncertainty . Finally, we identify the responsibilities of project team members and use a matrix to point out organizational interdependencies .
We apply our framework and methodology to model and simulate engineering design for a major extension of an electrical power substation. Our simulation results demonstrate how project performance is contingent on the fit between the project policies and the objectives and preferences of the project team.     

基于改进网络分析法（ANP）的工程交易模式选择研究

工程交易模式,不仅定义了工程项目参与各方的角色和责任,同时也为项目的设计、采购、建设提供了框架。选择适当的工程交易模式是业主进行工程项目决策的关键问题。网络分析法（ANP）是层次分析法（AHP）的延伸,不仅考虑了综合因素,同时考虑了各因素之间的相互影响关系。在已有的研究基础上统计出影响工程交易模式选择的主要因素,建立了多层次的ANP 模型,并将三角模糊数引入到模型的求解过程,增加了评估的准确性,为业主进行工程交易模式的选择提供了一种有效的方法。     

A decision support framework for project sponsors in the planning stage of build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects

Every decision-making problem is oriented towards the selection of the correct strategies for achieving objectives, and depends on the assumptions associated with different scenarios. Project planning in a buildoperate-transfer (BOT) project is a complicated decision-making problem because the model has a complex financial and organizational structure which is influenced also by the socio-economic environment in a country. A decision support framework is reported, as used in the planning stage of a hydropower plant project in Turkey, which helped the project company to check project viability against some predefined critical success factors, define the risk sharing scenarios under which a project becomes viable, incorporate risks into cash flow analysis and, finally, define effective risk mitigation strategies. Key challenges in the realization of BOT projects, particularly in developing countries, are discussed together with possible risk sharing principles between the private and public sector participants.     

An investigation into the governance of information technology projects in South Africa

Information technology (IT) projects are often perceived as adding little or no organisational value despite substantial investments being made. The non-adoption of governance principles might contribute to this perception as unfeasible projects are often approved and initiated without proper discourse. To test this statement, 16 semi-structured interviews were conducted to understand current practice. This article reports on the investigation of IT projects in South African organisations to determine whether generally accepted governance principles were applied in the project domain. The main trend that emerged as a result of the investigation is that adherence to governance principles is a myth and that it does not guide decision-making for IT projects. Using the findings of the investigation, a conclusion is drawn that the majority of the organisations do have corporate governance in place but that they do not comply with IT and IT project governance.