Speeding up decision-making in project environment: The effects of decision makers' collaboration network dynamics

Faced with continuously changing project environments, organizations need to not only make the right decisions but also make decisions in a timely manner. This study investigates the determinants of timely decision-making from the perspective of collaboration network dynamics. From the archival data recordings of the decision-making meetings of Program N, a national water transfer program, the meeting-based collaboration relationships of the decision makers were identified. Cox regression was employed to explore the effects of collaboration network dynamics on the time needed to reach a decision. The results suggest that stronger previous collaboration relationships and more centralized social capital distribution in decisions groups contribute to more timely decision-making. These findings substantiate social network theories in a real-world collaborative decision-making setting and reveal the facilitators of timely project decisions. The practical implication for project decision management is that the recruitment of a decision-making group should be based on not only the decision makers' technical expertise but also their collaboration network dynamics.     

数据包络分析在建设工程招评标中的应用研究

介绍了一种基于DEA算法的建设工程项目评标方法,采用DEA的C2R模型作为建设工程项目评价模型,并根据决策单元多输入多输出的特点建立了评价指标体系,实例分析表明,使用该模型可使评标方法和结果更科学、更公正.     

合理利用已有评标资源——CBR在CM项目评价中的应用

CM模式工程项目评标是一个复杂的过程,期间需要综合考虑诸多指标的相互影响。本文结合CM模式的特点,从有效利用已有投标资源的角度,提出了一种基于事例推理的CM项目综合指标评价方法,力求在充分考虑评价者经验的同时,降低评价过程中人为不确定性因素的影响,最终达到提高CM模式项目评标效率和效果的目的。     

基于风险视角的国际PPP 项目投标决策模型研究

构建一个规范化的投标决策模型,将有利于国际PPP 项目投资者投标决策的科学性和有效性。根据国际PPP 项目的特点,以风险管理为视角,在系统分析投标决策影响因素的基础上,构建出国际PPP 项目投标决策模型。该模型主要包括投标决策流程和辅助投标决策的计算工具两个部分,投资者采用该模型能够得到各个风险因素的重要性排序、项目的整体风险水平和企业对风险的控制与承受能力评价结果,并以此作为科学决策的依据。并通过算例演示了该模型在国际PPP 项目投标决策中应用的可行性和适用性。     

现有工程招标评标的不规范现象及对策

工程项目评标是招标工作的主要环节,评标决策方法的科学、客观与否,直接关系到招标工作的成功,保证公开、公平、公正地选择中标人,是建筑市场环境的综合反映。现有工程招标评标的不规范现象,其根源就是标底的存在。随着市场经济的发展,采用“最低价中标”的方法是大势所趋。但“最低价中标”原则却遭到了许多人的反对。投标人为了不使总报价过高,对在施工过程中无望增加工程量或可能减少工程量的项目压低报价。同时,有些投标人不惜一切手段了解专家名单,长期拉拢某些专家,影响评标的科学性和公正性。规范招投标行为,提高招投标透明度,实质是通过公开、公平、公正的招投标活动,将建立高效、规范的管理体系的过程法律化。     

A decision model proposal for construction contractor selection in Turkey

This study proposes a multi-criteria decision model for construction contractor selection in the Turkish public sector. Current selection methods are reviewed and three main concepts are generated for selection: cost, time, and quality. The proposed selection model uses evaluation criteria related to these concepts and has a process with two main stages: contractor prequalification and the choice of the eligible (compromised) bidder among prequalified contractors. This model can be used as a decision support system by project owners in order to identify an eligible contractor to be awarded the contract.     

基于主成分分析法的清单商务标评标方法及应用

基于主成分分析方法,运用SPSS统计软件,针对有7家投标单位的某清单招投标的建筑工程,对商务标关键报价数据进行处理分析,并运用综合评价函数对各投标单位进行排序。本文将主成分分析方法应用到清单商务标评标领域,评价结果具有一定参考价值,为招标人合理选择中标人提供了决策依据。     

工程量清单项目单价的评审方法

本文针对目前招授标工作中只评授标总报价而忽视工程量清单项目单价的问题，介绍了一种评审工程量清单主要项目单价的方法和标准，为评标中选择最佳承包商提供决策依据。     

Underground mining method selection by decision making tools

Underground mining method selection is one of the most important decisions that mining engineers have to make. Choosing a suitable underground mining method to extract a mineral deposit is very important in terms of economics, safety and productivity of mining operations. In real life, underground mining method selection is one of the multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problems and decision makers have always some difficulties in making the right decision in the multiple criteria environment. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Yager’s methods are the MADM tools and can be used for selection of the best underground mining method by considering the problem criteria. In this study, a computer program (UMMS) based on the AHP and the Yager’s method was developed to analyze the underground mining method selection problems and produce the best underground mining method swiftly for different deposit shapes and ore bodies.     

A fuzzy stochastic technique for project selection

The comparison of two or more risky projects is more of a challenge than the evaluation of one project in isolation. In the numerous decision models and methods suggested in the literature, often it is assumed that the criteria as well as the decision maker's preference or utility function can be crisply defined. Multi-attribute decision aids that permit the consideration of both multi-variables and risks generally have been associated with complex mathematics and heavy consumption of resources. This paper shows how project selection problems can be dealt with when some project attributes are subject to random variations. The method incorporates fuzzy analysis into multi-attribute utility theory. The aggregate utility function for an individual project is derived as a fuzzy number (or interval) which, in turn, yields probabilistic information for stochastic dominance tests. A unique feature of the approach is that it dispenses with the task of selecting probability distributions for aggregate utility functions. A comparison of the proposed method with the expected utility approach was made and the findings showed agreement between the results.     

Enhancing R&D in science-based industry: An optimal stopping model for drug discovery

Drug discovery is a process of science work full of exploration and complexity. Drug researchers face the dilemma of either working ‘forever’ to create a perfect drug or delivering a workable drug within an acceptable deadline to both save lives and make a profit. Specifically, in the compound screening and optimization stage, drug researchers must decide whether or not to stop the research and deliver the result for clinical testing. This paper proposes a model of optimal stopping time to help drug researchers make such decisions. It examines the decision strategies drug researchers should take through maximizing their objective function. The numerical examples given here show that this model is widely applicable. The model offers potential merits in terms of its ability to clarify drug researchers’ decision-making practices and helping managers maneuver through the jungle of science work.     

The moral responsibility of project selectors

Managers who select projects have a moral responsibility. The purpose of this paper is to present a template to assess this responsibility so that it can be put into practice. Responsibility is here defined as a combination of attributability—what choices the project manager can ultimately be praised or blamed for, and of accountability—what choices the project manager has to be prepared to answer for. The template combines these two aspects of responsibility with the project selection process divided into three phases: initialization phase, appraisal phase, and decision phase. Various moral philosophers are used to highlight the moral issues at stake for each of these two dimensions of responsibility at each stage of the project selection process. Concluding remarks underlines the need for project selectors to adapt to the specific context when they use the template.     

A framework for contractors to reach strategically correct bid/no bid and mark-up size decisions

In an effort to uncover the main factors that characterize the two distinct but sequential stages of bidding decisions, namely bid/no bid and mark-up size decisions, this study identifies the key determining factors and their importance weights by presenting survey findings of 80 contracting organizations from Northern Cyprus and Turkish construction markets regarding this issue. The framework presented in this study will serve as a basis for a knowledge-based system model which will guide the contracting organizations in reaching ‘strategically correct’ bid/no bid and mark-up size decisions. The proposed framework used a reasoning model, which went deeply into the heart of the decision-making process and helped to clarify the complex picture regarding the two sequential decisions. The results revealed that there is a distinct and significant difference in the importance assigned to the same key factors for the two separate decision processes. Furthermore, the study confirmed the fact that the factors related to ‘strategic considerations’ have a significant role in both of these decision processes. One of the most striking findings of this research was the distinct difference in approach of varying sizes of contractors to the overall issue. Hence, these results suggest that any model regarding bidding and mark-up size decisions should definitely differentiate among different sizes of contractors to reflect the approaches of the related contractors in a better manner. Furthermore, it was interesting to find out that the correlation between different sizes of contractors’ approaches was higher in the mark-up decision process compared to the bidding decision process. In spite of the fact that this study was based on input provided by certain types of contractors in Northern Cyprus and Turkish construction markets only, we believe that the overall approach, reasoning and findings of the proposed framework are of good value to contracting organizations in different construction markets throughout the world as well.     

Multi-attribute group decision making model under the condition of uncertain information

Owing to the increasing complexity in the construction management, integrating experts' knowledge and experiences to make appropriate decisions is a commonly used method. TOPSIS (technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution) is a practical and useful technique in dealing with multi-attribute decision making problems, and has been widely employed in the construction management and other fields. The modification and extension of TOPSIS to a group decision environment is investigated in this study. In the proposed group decision making model, we both adopt the Minkowski distance function to solve the over-weighted problem in the original TOPSIS technique, the grey number operations to deal with the problem of uncertain information, and the aggregation approach to integrate experts' evaluations. Finally, an illustrative example of subcontractor selection is used to demonstrate the feasibility and practicability of the proposed model.     

Effect of project role,age and gender differences on the formation and revision of project decision judgements

In this study, the authors examine how demographic variables such as project role, age and gender moderate the formation and revision of explicit decision judgements in a project by practitioners over the lifecycle of that project. Understanding the impact of these moderating factors on decisions made by project management practitioners can contribute to more effective managerial decision making; for example when decisions are being taken on whether or not to abandon a project. Empirical data are obtained from a quantitative survey of 1313 project management practitioners across seven countries. Data analysis is undertaken using log-linear modelling in SAS9.2. The results show that while project role and age of practitioners served as influencing factors when forming or revising decision judgements at any stage in the lifecycle, gender was not found to show any significant effect.¹     

Predicting completed project cost using bidding data

Neural network and regression models have been developed to predict the completed cost of competitively bid highway projects constructed by the New Jersey Department of Transportation. Bid information was studied for inclusion as inputs to the models. Data studied included the low bid, median bid, standard devi9 ation of the bids, expected project duration and the number of bids. A natural log transformation of the data was found to improve the linear relationship between the low bid and completed cost. The stepwise regression procedure was applied, and yielded the best performing predictive model. This regression model used only the natural log of the low bid as independent variable to predict the natural log of the completed cost. Radial basis neural networks were also constructed to predict the final cost. The best performing regres4 sion model produced superior predictions to the best performing neural network model. Hybrid models that used a regression model prediction as an input to a neural network were also studied and were found to also produce reasonable predictions. The calculated models produced good predictions of the completed project cost, but were found to be deficient in predicting very large cost increases. Simple models using the natural log of the low bid as input produced the best results. From the analysis it may be concluded that additional information about the variability of the bids submitted does not provide useful information for predicting the final project outcome.     

厦门市电子辅助评标系统的实践与探索

商务标评审工作的好坏是经评审合理低价中标法能否有效实施的关键,厦门市针对商务标评审工作的主要环节和内容,设计并建立了厦门市电子辅助评标系统,在实际运用中取得很大的成效。结合厦门市"经评审合理低价中标法"评标过程及方法,对厦门市电子辅助评标系统的工作原理、流程及系统的功能设计进行详细阐述,对电子辅助评标系统的设计和应用起到一定的借鉴作用。     

基于模糊多属性群决策的工程交易模式选择研究

工程项目是国家进行实体投资的主要方式,而工程交易模式对工程项目能否成功实施起着决定性作用。为了使业主方能够选择出更加恰当的工程交易模式,文章对影响工程交易模式的影响因素进行了归纳总结,构建了工程交易模式决策指标体系。由于业主在进行工程交易模式选择时涉及的因素非常多且十分复杂,因此工程交易模式的选择是一个多属性的决策问题。文章通过运用熵权法及模糊多属性决策理论,建立了模糊多属性群决策模型,并用实例对该模型进行了验证,确保其有效性,最终为业主方提供了更加科学、合理、实用的工程交易模式的决策方法。     

Modelling occupant interaction with fire conditions using the buildingEXODUS evacuation model

When evacuating through fire environments, the presence of smoke may not only have a physiological impact on the evacuees but may also lead occupants to adapt their evacuation strategy through the adoption of another exit. This paper attempts to introduce this type of adaptive behaviour within the buildingEXODUS evacuation model through enabling occupants to make decisions concerning the selection of the most viable available exit during an evacuation involving fire. The development of this adaptive behaviour requires the introduction of several new capabilities namely, the representation of the occupants’ familiarity with the structure, the behaviour of an occupant that is engulfed in smoke and the behaviour of an occupant that is faced with a smoke barrier. The appropriateness of the redirection decision is dependent upon behavioural data gathered from real fire incidents (in the UK and USA) that is used to construct the redirection probabilities. The implementation is shown to provide a more complex and arguably more realistic representation of this behaviour than that provided previously.     

Centralized bid evaluation for awarding of construction projects – A case of India government

Reviewing the procedures of contractor selection in government departments in various countries and in the Rural Development Department (RDD) in India, this paper brings out several weaknesses of the current contractor selection procedure. It suggests a centralized contractor evaluation process with the inclusion of three new selection attributes along bid price. The suggested attributes are: (1) time quoted to complete the project, (2) warranty period quoted, and (3) past performance score of the contractor. To solve the resulting multi-objective decision-making problem, the paper proposes a binary goal programming model. When tested with the existing contractor selection procedure for six past projects in RDD, the model yields the same results as those taken by RDD in the past, confirming the credibility of the model. When tested with the suggested procedure, the model yields much superior results.