从复杂系统建模角度研究网络经济测度

本文从网络经济系统属于复杂系统的角度出发,从定性到定量的综合集成分析就是测度网络经济系统的有效的系统建模方法。实践中用自组织数据挖掘及其核心技术数据分组处理方法,能有效地对网络经济进行测度。它从初始模型出发,按一定的法则经不断的筛选,使中间模型的复杂度不断增加,直至得到最优复杂度模型。     

Designing an Internet Traffic Predictive Model by Applying a Signal Processing Method

Detection of abnormal internet traffic has become a significant area of research in network security. Due to its importance, many predictive models are designed by utilizing machine learning algorithms. The models are well designed to show high performances in detecting abnormal internet traffic behaviors. However, they may not guarantee reliable detection performances for new incoming abnormal internet traffic because they are designed using raw features from imbalanced internet traffic data. Since internet traffic is non-stationary time-series data, it is difficult to identify abnormal internet traffic with the raw features. In this study, we propose a new approach to detecting abnormal internet traffic. Our approach begins with extracting hidden, but important, features by utilizing discrete wavelet transformation. Then, statistical analysis is performed to filter out irrelevant and less important features. Only statistically significant features are used to design a reliable predictive model with logistic regression. A comparative analysis is conducted to determine the importance of our approach by measuring accuracy, sensitivity, and the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve. From the analysis, we found that our model detects abnormal internet traffic successfully with high accuracy.     

互联网环境下基于预测控制的闭环控制方法

针对基于互联网的控制系统中，网络数据传输普遍存在随机时延、数据时序颠倒和数据丢失而难以实现闭环实时控制的问题，提出一种基于预测控制思想的闭环实时控制方法．该方法通过对采样数据附加时间标志，选择和利用当前时刻所能得到的最新输出测量值进行在线校正，并在互联网上实现预测控制策略．在模型准确或模型失配情况下，控制效果与无网络传输环节时接近．仿真结果表明了该方法的有效性．     

基于支持向量机的网络舆情混沌预测

精确预测网络舆情发展趋势,对防止负面网络舆情对公共安全威胁具有重要意义,针对网络舆情变化的时变性、混沌性,提出一种基于支持向量机的网络舆情混沌预测模型（PHR-SVR）。证明了网络舆情具有混沌特性,根据Takens定理分别采用互信息法和G-P法确定延迟时间和嵌入维数重构网络舆情时间序列相空间;在相空间中,利用支持向量回归机（SVR）建立网络舆情预测模型,与其他预测模型进行对比实验。结果表明,相对于对比模型,PHR-SVR提高了网络舆情的预测精度和可靠性,预测结果具有一定实用价值。     

文字作品互联网传播模型的研究与应用

通过分析文字作品在互联网中的传播过程与规律,建立文字作品的网络传播模型,通过仿真实验将采集的真实数据与模型的理论值作对比分析,结果表明该模型可以用来描述互联网中文字作品的传播趋势.进而将所提出的模型与一个网络监测系统相结合,在监测网站数目有限的情况下能对整个网络中的转载网站数目做出估计,为有效遏制文字作品的网络非法转载提供了理论依据.     

基于动态数据联盟的虚拟设计/制造系统—VC~3

提出了一种基于因特网络的快速市场反应虚拟设计／制造系统的体系结构－ＶＣ３。该系统以数据仓库为核心，以专业专家系统为各个生产环节的决策系统，以网络环境的专业竞争为优化机制，实现了网络环境的、面向市场反应的新一代 ＣＡＤ系统集成。     

基于灰色Verhulst的互联网上网人数动态预测模型

在分析最近几年我国互联网上网人数实测数据的基础上,根据数据本身所具有的特征,引入灰色Verhulst预测理论,通过分析建立了我国互联网上网人数的灰色Verhulst动态模型,并通过所建立的模型对2000~2005年我国互联网上网人数进行实例验证和误差检验。检验结果表明,所建立的灰色Verhulst动态模型对实测数据具有很高预测精度,具有一定的研究和应用价值。     

Insight of the fuzzy grey autoregressive model

In our previous research, we proposed a fuzzy grey regression model for solving limited time series data. The present paper follows the previous research and proposes a fuzzy grey autoregressive model for considering that the current value is correlated with previous values. The proposed model combines the advantages of the grey system model, the fuzzy regression model and the autoregressive model. Two illustrated examples are provided in which the amount of internet subscribers in Taiwan and the global demand of LCD TVs are forecasted. The results of these practical applications show that the proposed model can be used to obtain smaller forecasting errors of MAPE and RMSE, and that it makes good forecasts for the next demand period of internet subscribers and LCD TV. Furthermore, this model makes it possible for decision makers to forecast the best and the worst estimates based on fewer observations.     

Identity formation in adolescent and emerging adult regular players of massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPG)

The aim of this study was to investigate the process of identity formation in adolescent and emerging adult regular players of massively multiplayer online role-playing games. Moreover, considering the association between involvement in these games and addiction, we took into account also the role of internet addiction. A total of 176 regular players and 239 controls, not playing massively multiplayer online role-playing games, aged between 15 and 30 years completed: the Utrecht-management of identity commitments scale, evaluating three identity processes, i.e. commitment, in-depth exploration and reconsideration of commitment; and the dependence subscale from the use abuse and dependence on internet questionnaire, in order to evaluate internet addiction. A multivariate analysis of variance evidenced that controls were higher on commitment and in-depth exploration, whereas players were higher on reconsideration of commitment and internet addiction. A structural equation model in which the three identity processes affected simultaneously internet addiction and regular involvement in massively multiplayer online role-playing games showed that reconsideration of commitment was positively associated with internet addiction and the probability to be a player, whereas in-depth exploration was negatively associated only with the probability to be a player. Being a regular player of massively multiplayer online role-playing games seems to be associated with a troubled path in the process of identity formation.     

A study on the monitoring model development for quality measurement of internet traffic

The recent trend of integration among new network services such as the long-term evolution (LTE) based on internet protocol (IP) needs reputable analyses and prediction information on the internet traffic. The IP along with increased internet traffics due to expanding new service platforms such as smartphones will reflect policies such as network QoS according to new services. The establishment of monitoring methods and analysis plans is thus required for the development of internet traffics that will analyze their status and predict their future. The paper with the speed of Internet traffic model is developed for monitoring the state of the experiment and verified. The problem is that the proposed service Internet service provider (ISP) to resolve the conflict between the occurrences can be considerably Internet traffic and that the state of data may be helpful in understanding. The paper advancement policy to reflect the network traffic volume of Internet services and users irradiation with increased traffic due to the development and management of the analysis was carried out experimental measurements.     

Disability digital divide: the use of the internet,smartphones, computers and tablets among people with disabilities in Sweden

Although Sweden is one of the most digitalized countries and the Swedish population’s use of the internet is among the most studied in the world, little is known about how Swedes with disabilities use internet. The purpose of this study is to describe use of and perceived difficulties in use of the internet among people with disabilities and to explore digital divides in-between and within disability groups, and in comparison with the general population. This is a cross-sectional survey targeting the same issues as other nationwide surveys but adapted for people with cognitive disabilities. Participants were recruited from May to October 2017 by adaptive snowball sampling. The survey comprised questions on access to and use of devices, and use of and perceived difficulties in use of internet. A total of 771 people responded to the survey, representing 35 diagnoses/impairments. Larger proportions of people with autism, ADHD and bipolar disorder reported using internet than other disability groups. Women with autism used the internet more than any other disability group, and women with aphasia used the internet the least. People with disabilities related to language and understanding reported more difficulties using internet than other disability groups. Larger proportions of participants than the general Swedish population reported not feeling digitally included. In many but not all disability groups, larger proportions of men than women reported not feeling digitally included. Our findings show that there are differences in digital inclusion between sub-groups of diagnoses/impairments. Thus, disability digital divides are preferably investigated by sub-grouping disabilities, rather than studied as one homogeneous group.

     

基于效用流量的网间结算系统的设计与实现

详细介绍了基于效用流量的网间结算系统的设计与实现.提出了一个IUEF模型,从三个方面对网络流量进行区分,从而采用不同的收费策略;分析了整个系统的架构,并且介绍了费率参数预生成系统的程序结构.是对网间结算策略的一个有益探索.     

考虑非支持性评论的网络谣言传播模型

针对现有谣言传播模型尚未分析非支持性评论对网络谣言传播的影响,提出一个引入带有非支持性评论的谣言传播者的SII_CR₁R₂（Susceptible-Infected-Infected with non-supportive comment-Removed1-Removed2）网络谣言传播模型。首先,对模型进行稳态分析,以证明无谣言平衡点和谣言传播平衡点的稳定性;其次,通过数值仿真验证理论成果,并分析非支持性评论率、恢复率、传播率和非支持性评论的说服力对网络谣言传播的影响。分析结果表明：提高非支持性评论率对网络谣言传播具有抑制效果,但是该效果受到恢复率的影响,而增强非支持性评论的说服力和降低传播率均能有效降低网络谣言的影响范围。基于WS（Watts-Strogatz）小世界网络和BA（Barabási-Albert）无标度网络进行模型仿真,仿真结果证实了非支持性评论能够抑制网络谣言传播;最后,根据分析结果提出相应的谣言防控策略。     

基于城市小区域的车联网模型

随着社会进步及车辆增多,交通问题日益突出,使得城市环境下车联网的研究受到越来越多的关注。基于真实数据的分析和验证,可以得到城市不同区域的车联网网络度分布服从广义的幂律分布,即网络是无标度网络。根据此性质利用复杂网络理论建立车联网网络模型,通过分析和仿真验证该模型的正确性和有效性。     

Use of a Modified UTAUT Model to Investigate the Perspectives of Internet Access Device Users

This study integrates perceived enjoyment and cyberloafing with the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) and uses a modified UTAUT model to investigate the behavioral intention and user behavior of access internet device users. The research results show that perceived enjoyment can be used as the antecedence variable of performance expectancy (PE) and effort expectancy (EE). In addition, PE, EE, and social influence will all lead to the occurrence of cyberloafing behavior and increased internet browsing time; however, the hypothesis of the moderator is not fully supported. The results can be provided as reference for subsequent researchers to re-modify the model.     

基于Web的多形态新闻信息发布模型

There are a lot of different terminals existed in internet. Each of them has different demand on format and language when it retrieves information. This paper introduces a Web news information publish model with multi-for-mat and multi-language capability. Within this model,users no longer need specify format and language when he re-trieves information by any internet terminal. And information provider no longer need create copies for every format.A discrete model implement based on NewsML,a kind of XML standard used in news area,is presented in the paper.     

基于物联网技术的科技基础设施智能管理的可靠性研究

从互联网到物联网是一个必然的趋势,物联网技术必将促进科技基础设施的智能管理和数据共享.物联网技术主要利用各种传感器采集设备的各种运行状态,并且通过射频技术传到云端或者其他数据共享中心进行处理.由于涉及到无线传输,必定会涉及到数据传输的可靠性问题,如果设备的信号未能实时地到达数据共享中心,则可能影响到该设备的智能管理.鉴于此,将科学基础设施系统简化为一个非线性多态系统,建立一个初步模型,分析利用物联网技术进行科技基础设施智能管理的可靠性.对该系统建立基于多值决策图的可靠性建模流程,并分析多值决策图中计算最大节点数和最大路径数的计算复杂度.最后通过示例演示了所建立的多值决策图可靠性的计算步骤.     

A conceptual and methodological critique of internet addiction research: Towards a model of compensatory internet use

Internet addiction is a rapidly growing field of research, receiving attention from researchers, journalists and policy makers. Despite much empirical data being collected and analyzed clear results and conclusions are surprisingly absent. This paper argues that conceptual issues and methodological shortcomings surrounding internet addiction research have made theoretical development difficult. An alternative model termed compensatory internet use is presented in an attempt to properly theorize the frequent assumption that people go online to escape real life issues or alleviate dysphoric moods and that this sometimes leads to negative outcomes. An empirical approach to studying compensatory internet use is suggested by combining the psychological literature on internet addiction with research on motivations for internet use. The theoretical argument is that by understanding how motivations mediate the relationship between psychosocial well-being and internet addiction, we can draw conclusions about how online activities may compensate for psychosocial problems. This could help explain why some people keep spending so much time online despite experiencing negative outcomes. There is also a methodological argument suggesting that in order to accomplish this, research needs to move away from a focus on direct effects models and consider mediation and interaction effects between psychosocial well-being and motivations in the context of internet addiction. This is key to further exploring the notion of internet use as a coping strategy; a proposition often mentioned but rarely investigated.     

探析网络文化对家庭教育的影响

网络文化对青少年的影响是巨大的，每当有弦子陷入网络中不可自拔时，许多人将责任归咎于学校、社会。笔者认为，家庭教育者有着不可推卸的责任，互联网出现所带来的网络文化虽然为家庭教育提供了新气息，但同时又出现了许多负面效应，家庭教育者要善待网络。身教结合，以应时网络文化的到来。     

基于Web使用挖掘的个性化系统

Web个性化在信息量巨大的互联网中显得越来越重要.针对一般聚类算法不可以用于在线预测的缺点,提出了一个实现个性化的实时聚类算法,并对个性化系统模型进行了设计,使模型不但能实时提供个性化服务,还可以根据用户的短期浏览变化对个性化服务进行调整.最后通过实验系统验证了模型的准确性.