The British housing market: contained and exploding1

While the long run trend in housing prices in the UK has been upwards since the mid‐1950s the post 1998 boom represents short term volatility and threatens stability in the wider economy. This paper argues the fundamental reason driving both the rise in the real price of housing and its increased volatility is the increasing constraint on the supply or urban space applied by the British system of land use planning and its attempts to contain urban areas. Housing is an economic good and the supply of available housing space is allocated through the market. As incomes rise people try to purchase more space. This not only drives up the price of space and so housing but it also makes the supply of housing more inelastic and so the price more volatile. Housing increasingly behaves like a financial asset marker rather than a market for housing services.     

Housing Policy,Wealth Formation and the Singapore Economy

This paper evaluates the contribution of housing policy in Singapore to financial sector development, housing wealth formation and macro-economic performance, both retrospectively and prospectively. It provides an overview of past housing policies and traces the linkages to the financial sector. Housing policy as effected through the Housing and Development Board and the Central Provident Fund (CPF) hampered the development of the commercial housing loans sector and domestic financial markets, but contributed to the overall growth and stability of the housing loans market and associated financial institutions. Housing policy and the trend of housing asset inflation contributed significantly to the formation of both gross and net housing wealth. Economic growth has not suffered from the heavy emphasis on housing investment although various policies that resulted in exogenous shifts in housing demand contributed to increased housing price volatility in the short term. The structure of the housing loans market has also allowed the CPF contribution rate to be more effectively used as an instrument for macro-economic stabilisation.     

Housing price and transaction intensity correlation in Hong Kong: implications for government housing policy

Examination of the causal relationship between housing price and transaction intensity helps us understand the housing market dynamics better. The housing market is a very unique asset market as demand for housing comes from both demand for investment return and demand for a shelter/accommodation. Empirical analysis on this causal relationship therefore provides government with important policy considerations. In this paper, we will examine such correlation between housing price movements and transaction intensity in Hong Kong with a core objective of getting a better understanding of the housing market behavior in this city so that more effective government housing policy could be devised. We examine the price–transaction correlation observed in the Hong Kong housing market by means of a bivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model, with a time series spanning over the period from 1993 to 2014. Without examining other macroeconomic variables such as employment and gross domestic product, our Granger causality test shows a strong evidence, suggesting that housing price Granger causes transaction intensity in the housing market of Hong Kong, but not vice versa. The findings buttressed by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the bounds test results on cointegration relationships support our conclusion. Based on these results, we question the current government housing policy which aims mainly at suppressing demand and hence transaction intensity, if the objective of government intervention is to bring housing price level to a more affordable level. Housing policy therefore should aim at effectuating the supply channel so that there is a clearer signal of constant and effective supply of housing units, which will eventually help stabilize housing price.     

Housing Careers,House Price Dispersion and the Housing Market Multiplier

Housing markets reflect our housing consumption profile over the life cycle. As we age, marry and have kids, we seek larger dwellings and to a greater extent owner-occupied housing. The up-trading process has two key characteristics: first, it is equity induced. Second, it impacts both the supply and demand sides of housing markets. This is our point of departure. The paper combines a housing ladder with a house price index to show how up-trading amplifies shocks and introduces a multiplier into the housing market. The interplay between market segments results in up-trading induced price dispersion and a price response in the segments on top of the ladder that exceeds those of segments further down, even when shocks are equal across market segments. Finally, as up-trading impacts both housing supply and housing demand, even balanced shocks to net demand might impact house prices. Focusing on different market segments, shocks to demand might have both direct (the size effect) and indirect (the up-trading effect) effects on the house price index. This paper highlights policy options at a finer level when in need of stimulating or dampening house price cycles.     

用可负担能力指数分析我国城镇居民购房负担能力

结合我国最近7年房地产市场实际情况,借鉴国外所用的可负担能力指数理论来验证全国以及北京和上海1998～2004年房价,得出当前我国商品住宅总体上处于可负担水平；北京的房价如此高使得指数一直低于可负担水平但可负担指数在逐渐提高；上海的房价最近两年上涨太快使得指数剧烈下降,由2002 年的可负担下降到2003年和2004年的不可负担水平最后给出相应分析。     

于GWR模型的广州市住宅价格影响因素研究

以广州市“都会区”为例,基于2016~2019年住宅小区均价及POI数据,综合运用kriging插值、GWR模型对广州市住宅价格空间分布结构及其影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明:2016~2019年广州市住宅价格整体呈上升趋势,沿珠江水系发展的双核、多次中心、组团式的空间结构已基本成型;高速/快速路口、三甲医院、省一级小学对住宅价格的回归系数在中心城区与近郊区域间呈明显的正负差异,绿化率、地铁、房龄等单向影响因素回归系数强弱渐变;房龄、CBD、省一级小学、三甲医院、绿化率、休闲配套对中心城区住宅价格影响较大,而近郊区域主要受地铁、高速/快速路口的影响;较全局OLS模型,GWR模型的拟合优度大幅提高19.9%,能够更加精确地研究住宅价格影响因素的空间异质性。     

The Residential Housing Market in Iceland: Analysing the Effects of Mortgage Market Restructuring

In June 2004 the government-backed Housing Financing Fund eased its loan regulations in an attempt to consolidate its position in the domestic credit market. This led to a strong response from the domestic commercial banks that actively entered the mortgage market for the first time. These changes led to a substantial decline in long-term real mortgage rates, increased the access to credit, and allowed homeowners for the first time to withdraw equity from their homes without actual transactions. This paper sets up a simple model of housing demand and supply to analyse these effects. The results suggest that the structural changes led to a substantial rise in housing demand, with house prices rising by 25 per cent one year after the shock. This triggered a similar rise in housing investment approximately two years after the shock. The model predicts that the effects on house prices gradually die out as house prices return to the level that is consistent with normal profit margins in the construction sector. However, the housing stock remains approximately 5 per cent larger than in the baseline scenario.     

基于挤出效应的住房保障规模对商品住房价格的影响

中国房地产市场中保障性住房的角色和作用愈加重要,保障性住房建设规模正在逐年扩大。商品住房价格变化是供给需求作用的结果,但是随着保障房供给规模的增加,商品住房价格的涨幅也会发生改变,说明保障房的供给规模会对普通商品房的供需产生影响。本文以北京市商品住房市场为例,选取住宅需求、住宅供给、住房投机对价格的影响为自变量,住宅价格为因变量,利用多元回归模型对商品住房价格变化进行实证研究,同时通过考虑保障房供给对住房市场产生的不同挤出效应,分析保障房供给规模供需变化对房价产生的影响,进而为政府制定相关的住房保障政策提供建议和对策。     

京沪穗城镇家庭住房状况变迁——基于“五普”与“六普”数据的比较

住房以家庭为单位进行消费,确定住房市场发展方向需要进一步了解当前城镇家庭居住水平与住房现状。本文利用第五次人口普查和第六次人口普查长表数据,对京沪穗城镇家庭住房状况进行比较分析,指出一线城市经济发展背景下人口快速增长导致城市住房需求旺盛,这是造成城市住房价格不断上涨的重要原因。2000~2010年间,伴随房地产市场化进程,城镇家庭居住水平不断提高,京沪穗三地中广州市城镇家庭居住水平改善程度最高。当前一线城市家庭住房现状和消费偏好决定了住房需求还有进一步提升空间,住房市场调控要结合需求变动趋势来进行。未来随着一线城市住房租赁市场和存量住房交易市场规模日益扩大,住房市场结构亟待进一步规范。     

The Limits and Potentials of the Housing Market Enabling Paradigm: An Evaluation of China's Housing Policies from 1998 to 2011

This paper examines the housing policies in China in the last 14 years in the context of the international debate on the World Bank's housing market enabling strategy to improve low-income housing provision in developing countries. A review of China's urban housing outcomes reveals housing price inflation and shortage of affordable housing in the fast expanding housing market. The paper analyzes policies to increase both demand for and supply of housing and argues that these policies have contributed to worsening affordability. This situation has been exacerbated by problems in the institutional framework managing the housing sector. The paper concludes that market enabling alone is not sufficient to achieve a satisfactory housing outcome for low- and middle-income groups in Chinese cities. It advocates more effective and direct public intervention for enhancing social housing provision and tightening market regulation to address both market and government failures to improve housing conditions for lower income groups.     

重庆两江四岸高架桥下空间有效利用初探——2008IUHC国际大学生住宅设计竞赛特别奖之“桥宅”方案简介

本文针对当前城市快速发展过程中土地资源紧缺和居民住房紧张等问题,结合山城重庆的实际情况,创新性地提出了利用滨江高架桥下的闲置空间为城市低收入阶层设计和建设住房的构想,并进行了相关的“桥宅”方案的设计,这对缓解城市土地与住房紧缺的现状问题具有一定的现实与指导意义。     

The Sudden Rediscovery of Housing Supply as a Key Policy Challenge

Housing supply was suddenly rediscovered as a major challenge for English housing policy in the early 2000s, after nearly three decades of neglect. There does appear to be a problem of inadequate and unresponsive housing supply in England, by international or historical standards. Although shortcomings of the house building industry and limited public investment play a part, the most important factor explaining England's housing supply problem is the operation of the land-use planning system. Policies, procedures and incentives are all implicated. The most important impact is a long-term real rise in the price of housing, differentiated by region, which is damaging both economically and socially, although there are some compensating benefits in terms of the environment. The Barker Inquiry has proposed a radical supply agenda, which has been substantially accepted by the present government. This proposes that planning targets should be geared to affordability, with more land released and market-contingent mechanisms, more social housing and supporting infrastructure investment. There is room for debate about the magnitudes involved, the role for more proactive approaches to development and the best fiscal mechanisms and incentives. However, given the fraught political economy of housing and planning in the pressured regions, there is considerable doubt as to whether these measures will be implemented on the requisite scale.     

天津市住宅市场发展的系统动力学模型仿真研究

为构建天津市健康、稳定的住宅市场,采用系统动力学理论,对天津市住宅市场发展进行系统建模,将天津市住宅市场系统划分为:人口与就业、经济与金融、土地供应、住宅供给与需求5 个子系统。根据天津市年鉴及天津市国土资源与房屋管理局等统计数据,分析各子系统间影响机理,建立系统反馈回路,从而构建城市住宅系统动力学仿真模型,模拟近5 年天津市住宅市场发展现状,并预测天津市住宅市场未来10 年发展走势,结合预测住宅市场发展,提出人口、就业及土地调控等政策性建议。     

我国城镇商品住房需求的行为特征分析

从宏观经济学中家庭储蓄与消费行为的基本理论出发,建立住房需求方程,并将误差修正模型应用于方程的估计,进而分析我国住房需求的长期与短期的行为特征。研究表明,当前我国住房市场中住房需求偏离长期均衡关系的短期波动较小,并具有很强的恢复长期均衡关系的能力;住房需求具有较高的收入弹性,不管从长期还是短期来看,需求均伴随收入增长而高速增长;住房面积需求具有极大的刚性;目前我国住房需求的增加是一个必然的过程,适当增加供给尤其是公共住房的供给是解决住房问题的根本出路。研究结果可为政府制定以需求为主导的住宅用地供应计划、进行住房价格的宏观调控提供参考。     

The extreme primacy of location: Beijing's underground rental housing market

This article analyzes Beijing's subterranean housing market within the context of the city's larger housing supply system. The emergence of this widespread market of rooms for rent in bomb shelters and basements indicates a demand for housing attributes that neither the mainstream private housing market nor public housing programs yet supply. The study collected market data about these rental units from internet ads during October 2012–September 2013 and mapped their locations, displaying their general spatial distribution. Next, a hedonic price model was deployed on this data which reveals the relative priorities and preferences in price levels, location, and housing amenities of the middle–lower income population, particularly migrants who do not possess hukou, Chinese urban residence rights.     

试析我国现代住宅的演化历程

1949年建国以来,不同的经济发展阶段出现相应的住宅类型.从单元式住宅的推广到厅式住宅的发展,住宅类型逐渐丰富起来.改革开放后,从住宅商品化到安居工程,住宅建设在政策与市场的双重作用下,覆盖面更全面,类型趋于多元化,城市中低收入群体住房问题突出,安居工程建设更加受到重视.     

城市集约化政策与住宅价格——1991-2004年墨尔本案例研究

本文通过回顾墨尔本1991—2004年期间在混合住宅建设和住宅价格方面的变化,探讨了在战略性发展政策、城市集约化政策和住宅价格之间的关系。作者认为可以将城市集约化政策视为增加土地供给的一种来源（这也许可以降低住宅价格,并有助于实现地方的政策目标）,同时它也刺激了土地需求（开发商会以高价竞拍那些预期能够建设更多住宅的地块）。本文在大都市和次区域的尺度进行了相关性分析,研究表明数据相关程度很低,并推断在城市集约化政策与住宅价格变化之间并不存在关联。     

Floor Space per Person and Housing Development: An Urban Growth Approach to Estimate Housing Supply in Hong Kong

This article estimates an empirical model of new housing supply in Hong Kong based on the urban growth approach. The article introduces a new factor, space usage per person (SPP), to this model reflecting the quality of housing, the demand and supply aspects of the housing market, along with prices and other standard variables. SPP may also be used as a human settlement development indicator. Empirical results provide strong evidence that the introduced new factor exerts a strong positive influence on new housing supply, and that even a marginal change in the space usage pattern would have a great impact on housing supply. This suggests that non-price measures too should receive priority when estimating future housing development needs. Empirical estimates also suggest that a 10 per cent rise in real house prices leads to a 0.6 per cent increase in new housing starts and twofold rise in real house prices would increase the entire housing stock by 6 per cent.

     

重庆市商品房价格与供求经济指标关系研究

通过构建商品房价格与商品房施工面积、竣工面积、销售面积的回归模型,对重庆市商品房市场的供求指标与房价的关系进行了分析。结果表明重庆商品房价格与商品房施工面积、竣工面积、销售面积存在着稳定均衡的关系,商品房价格影响商品房的施工面积、竣工面积和销售面积;商品房施工面积、竣工面积和销售面积长期存在均衡的关系,短期内供不应求,影响商品房的价格。     

商品住房市场土地供给政策调控的传导机制分析

土地供给政策在中央及各城市的房地产调控政策文件中频繁出现,表明了其在住房市场调控中的重要作用。本文就各土地供给政策工具将如何影响商品住房市场进行研究,希望对土地供给政策的制定提供参考。文章主要通过供求均衡模型分析各土地供给政策对住房市场的作用。并得出如下结论:各土地供给政策通过影响土地市场各环节和住房市场供给弹性对商品住房市场产生影响,其影响渠道较为复杂,但主要土地供给政策工具通过各种渠道影响住房市场的方向是可以判断的。土地供应数量通过住房供给数量、土地价格水平及住房供给预期三种渠道影响住房市场,且同时从三种渠道对房价产生负向作用;我国2002～2004年进行的土地出让方式改革则通过住房供给数量、土地价格水平和住房供给价格弹性影响住房市场,且三种渠道都会助推房价的上涨。