Concurrent consideration of evacuation safety and productivity in manufacturing facility planning using multi-paradigm simulations

Manufacturing facilities are expected to maintain a high level of production and at the same time, employ strict safety standards to ensure the safe evacuation of the people in the event of emergencies (fire is considered in this paper). These two goals are often conflicting. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate evacuation safety versus productivity concurrently for various, widely known manufacturing layouts. While the safety performance indicators such as evacuation times are inferred from the crowd (agent based) simulation, the productivity performance indicators (e.g. throughput) are analyzed using the discrete event simulation. To this end, this research focuses on creating innovative techniques for developing accurate crowd simulations, where Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) agent framework is employed to build each person’s individual actions and the interactions between them. The data model and rule based action algorithms for each agent are reverse-engineered from the human-in-the-loop experiments in the immersive virtual reality environments. Finally, experiments are conducted using the constructed simulations to compare safety and productivity for different layouts. To demonstrate the proposed methodology, an automotive power-train (engine and transmission) manufacturing plant was used. Initial results look quite promising.     

A Hybrid Model for Simulating Crowd Evacuation

Macroscopic and microscopic models are typical approaches for simulating crowd behaviour and movement to simulate crowd and pedestrian movement, respectively. However, the two models are unlikely to address the issues beyond their modelling targets (i.e., pedestrian movement for microscopic models and crowd movement for macroscopic models). In order to solve such problem, we propose a hybrid model integrating macroscopic model into microscopic model, which is capable of taking into account issues both from crowd movement tendency and individual diversity to simulate crowd evacuation. In each simulation time step, the macroscopic model is executed first and generates a course-grain simulation result depicting the crowd movement, which directs microscopic model for goal selection and path planning to generate a fine-grain simulation result. In the mean time, different level-of-detail simulation results can also be obtained due to the proposed model containing two complete models. A synchronization mechanism is proposed to convey simulation results from one model to the other one. The simulation results via case study indicate the proposed model can simulate the crowd and agent behaviour in dynamic environments, and the simulation cost is proved to be efficient.     

建筑物火灾中的人群疏散研究

建筑物火灾是我国频发的安全事故,所以应研究建筑物火灾人群安全疏散问题。由于在建筑物火灾中,人群疏散时出现拥堵,存在不安全因素,造成人员伤亡。针对在现有的研究中未考虑人员行为的影响,提出了智能体(Agent)的人群行为建模技术在建筑物火灾中的人群疏散仿真中的应用方法。仿真结果显示基于Agent的行为模型可以仿真出人员特性及决策过程对人群疏散的影响,弥补现有的人群疏散模型的不足。仿真结果证明,Agent的行为建模技术具有仿真火灾全过程中人员疏散行为的功能,适用于建筑物火灾中的人群优化疏散策略。     

基于地面场粒子群优化算法的高密度人群应急疏散建模

针对非常规突发事件环境下高密度人群的拥挤管理和快速疏散问题,提出一种由感知层、传输层、计算层和应用层构成的多层结构人群疏散信息物理系统（E-CPS）体系框架。在E-CPS体系框架计算层中将静态地面场（FF）建模规则引入经典粒子群优化（PSO）模型,提出地面场PSO （FF-PSO）人群疏散模型,该模型同时具备静态场规则简单、计算快和PSO模型快速搜索、快速收敛的优点。此外,FF-PSO模型中构建了一种新的适应度函数,实现了疏散策略的动态选择,并通过数值仿真及实例仿真验证了FF-PSO模型在拥挤管理中的可行性和有效性。国家会展中心（上海）的实例仿真结果表明,考虑拥堵管理比仅考虑距离最短平均每分钟可多疏散66人,疏散时间节省19 min,疏散效率提升13.4%。     

人群应急疏散可视仿真研究进展和问题

人群应急疏散可视仿真是用智能体来模拟具有自主感知、情绪和行为能力的人群个体,并采用3维可视的方式来直观呈现人群应急疏散情景,可以为制定人群应急预案提供形象直观的分析方法。本文从人群仿真数据的来源、人群导航模型的构建、人群行为模型、人群情绪感染、人群渲染5个方面概述目前研究的进展,然后从仿真模型的可验证性、人群疏散导航模型的构建、人与环境的物理模型、动物逃生实验与仿真、疏散中的社会行为表现以及人群情绪的可视计算6个角度讨论需要进一步研究的问题。针对需要深入研究的问题,指出借助于紧急事件的视频监控分析和虚拟人群情景的用户调查,有助于完善人群仿真模型。结合物理模型,可以更准确地描述人群应急疏散场景。开展动物逃生实验分析,有助于完善人群运动导航算法。建立人群社会行为模型,可以更详细描述疏散中人群行为的多样性。构建基于多通道感知的人群情绪感染计算方法,可以详尽描述情绪感染的过程。人群应急疏散行为的可视仿真研究在城市的安全管理方面具有重要的应用前景,但其研究仍存在很多亟待解决的问题,综合地运用多学科知识,完善实验手段是进一步推动研究的关键所在。     

结合最短路径改进的社会力人群疏散仿真模型

社会力模型广泛应用于人群疏散仿真,针对该模型在仿真过程中存在行人停滞不前、无法通过非凸边形障碍物和疏散路径与行人实际选择的路径不相符等问题,提出了一种社会力改进模型。该模型基于场景中的障碍物生成路径节点,利用这些节点生成无向图,同时考虑了节点的安全系数和拥挤系数对节点通行性的影响生成最短疏散路径。通过改进后的社会力模型进行了多种场景的仿真实验,实验结果显示行人在复杂障碍物场景中能有效绕过障碍物,生成合理的疏散路径,表明该模型有效改善社会力模型,使人群疏散仿真更加真实。     

复杂条件下多层建筑人员协作疏散仿真

研究具有复杂多层协作过程条件下的人员疏散控制系统,就能够比较准确地模拟突发情况下人员的疏散情况。本文对元胞自动机进行了改进,综合人员个体特征和从众心理等各种复杂因素,对具有复杂障碍物的多层建筑中人员疏散过程进行了计算机仿真分析,并给出了人员疏散效率与人员的从众系数、障碍物及出口位置等因素的关系。该仿真能够很好地模拟大型公共场所发生突发事件时人员疏散的情况,对在复杂地理环境及人员特性条件下的多层建筑突发事件疏散策略制定具有一定的实际参考意义。     

Parameter estimation and comparative evaluation of crowd simulations

We present a novel framework to evaluate multi‐agent crowd simulation algorithms based on real‐world observations of crowd movements. A key aspect of our approach is to enable fair comparisons by automatically estimating the parameters that enable the simulation algorithms to best fit the given data. We formulate parameter estimation as an optimization problem, and propose a general framework to solve the combinatorial optimization problem for all parameterized crowd simulation algorithms. Our framework supports a variety of metrics to compare reference data and simulation outputs. The reference data may correspond to recorded trajectories, macroscopic parameters, or artist‐driven sketches. We demonstrate the benefits of our framework for example‐based simulation, modeling of cultural variations, artist‐driven crowd animation, and relative comparison of some widely‐used multi‐agent simulation algorithms.     

Agent-CA的体育场馆人群疏散模型

根据体育场馆人群疏散的特点与规律,提出一种基于多智能体和元胞自动机相融合的大型体育场馆人群疏散模型（Agent-CA）。将元胞空间中被虚拟人个体占据的元胞视为一个独立的智能体,将元胞及其状态进行封装,扩展为具有自主性的智能体,通过设计各种人群疏散行为策略做为演化规则,实现个体的差异性以体现个人个性、体力、心理等对疏散行为的影响,对体育场馆的人群疏散进行仿真实验。结果表明,Agent-CA综合了多智能体和元胞自动机的优点,充分考虑了个体内在因素,更接近现实大型体育场馆的人群疏散情形,缩短了疏散时间。     

基于智能体方法的人群疏散三维仿真

研究建筑物在不同出口条件设置下人员的安全疏散问题。针对人群仿真中如何计算疏散路径问题,文中采用导航图技术和agent技术来对个体进行疏散路径的规划。同时为表现人群运动过程当中个体之间的相互碰撞问题,结合碰撞规避规则进行穿透矫正。并且采用三维引擎DeltaSD在Vc＋＋9．0环境下进行仿真并搭建了一套三维人群运动模拟平台。最后分别在三种不同出口条件下的虚拟场景中进行仿真。对比仿真结果表明该平台能直观地展现整个人群疏散的运动过程,并能够对建筑物出口安全设计的合理陛提供有效的数据依据。     

基于Agent的应急疏散模型研究

根据突发事件出现的等级,选择安全区域,并采用适当的疏散方式,选择受灾区域的周边安全区域作为避难所;通过分析影响应急情况下人员选择目的地的因素,对人员疏散行为直观分析并结合人机功效评估,对疏散行为规范,建立基于Agent的应急疏散人员避难所选择模型。通过设定可能影响人员疏散的多种可能因素,该模型能够比较真实地模拟紧急情况下的人员疏散状态。仿真过程与实际情况相似,方法可广泛用于人员应急疏散过程分析研究。     

应急响应环境下基于BDI模型的Agent结构研究

基于Agent的应急响应建模仿真具有优越性和现实性,通过分析应急响应体系中Agent主体所应具有的特征——反应性、推理性、互动性和能动性,构建了基于BDI模型的反应+思考+通信的混合型Agent结构,并在NetLogo仿真平台上实现。为今后进一步研究基于Agent的应急管理建模仿真奠定研究基础,同时也为在NetLogo平台下开发基于BDI模型的Agent结构提供范式和标准。     

Learning behavior patterns from video for agent-based crowd modeling and simulation

This paper proposes a novel data-driven modeling framework to construct agent-based crowd model based on real-world video data. The constructed crowd model can generate crowd behaviors that match those observed in the video and can be used to predict trajectories of pedestrians in the same scenario. In the proposed framework, a dual-layer architecture is proposed to model crowd behaviors. The bottom layer models the microscopic collision avoidance behaviors, while the top layer models the macroscopic crowd behaviors such as the goal selection patterns and the path navigation patterns. An automatic learning algorithm is proposed to learn behavior patterns from video data. The learned behavior patterns are then integrated into the dual-layer architecture to generate realistic crowd behaviors. To validate its effectiveness, the proposed framework is applied to two different real world scenarios. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed framework can generate crowd behaviors similar to those observed in the videos in terms of crowd density distribution. In addition, the proposed framework can also offer promising performance on predicting the trajectories of pedestrians.     

基于GPU的大规模人群疏散模拟*

基于中央处理器(CPU)串行的人群疏散传统方法对于人群规模较少的场景,可以得到良好的疏散模拟效果,但在人群密度较高的场景中,难以达到实时模拟的要求。为了克服上述问题,实现了一种基于图形处理器(GPU)的人群疏散模拟的方法。该方法通过对个体寻径算法的优化,不仅能使个体快速准确地智能寻径,而且将个体寻径独立性与图形处理器高性能计算特性进行结合,充分利用了图形处理器强大的并行计算能力,从而大幅度提高了人群疏散模拟的人群规模,使人群疏散模拟的实时性得到增强。     

基于深度时空Q网络的机器人疏散人群算法

针对目前人群疏散方法中机器人灵活性低、场景适应性有限与疏散效率低的问题,提出一种基于深度强化学习的机器人疏散人群算法。利用人机社会力模型模拟突发事件发生时的人群疏散状态,设计一种卷积神经网络结构提取人群疏散场景中复杂的空间特征,将传统的深度Q网络与长短期记忆网络相结合,解决机器人在学习中无法记忆长期时间信息的问题。实验结果表明,与现有基于人机社会力模型的机器人疏散人群方法相比,该算法能够提高在不同仿真场景中机器人疏散人群的效率,从而验证了算法的有效性。     

人群应急疏散中一种多智能体情绪感染仿真模型

为了从情绪的视角分析紧急情境下人群的疏散行为,梳理了现有情绪感染的研究工作,总结了人群紧急状况下行为特点.采用智能体描述人群个体,提出一种多智能体情绪感染模型.其主体框架分为感知层、情绪层、感染层、行为层和行动层.归纳了产生情绪感染现象的3个条件及情绪感染的3个规则,提出了情绪感染的算法,考虑个体的个性和个体间距离因素,采用情绪强度和人群紧密度来计算个体疏散速度.用C#语言编制了仿真实验,采用真实的地震疏散案例,验证了仿真疏散时间和实际观测的基本一致.通过与以往基于传染病思路的情绪感染模型对比,所提出的模型可以更好地描述情绪感染从局部到整体的过程.实验结果表明,所提出的模型可以推演情绪驱动下的群体聚集行为,有望为制定应急疏散预案提供一种可视化分析方法.     

行人运动建模技术综述*

随着计算机数值模拟技术的迅速发展,行人运动仿真技术开始成为人群疏散仿真、城市规划和计算机疏散软件开发方面的研究热点。介绍了对行人建模仿真的初步研究,重点介绍了基于行人行为的微观行人运动建模方法,并对各个模型进行了比较分析和研究展望。     

Crowd simulation-based knowledge mining supporting building evacuation design

Assessing building evacuation performance designs in emergency situations requires complex scenarios which need to be prepared and analysed using crowd simulation tools, requiring significant manual input. With current procedures, every design iteration requires several simulation scenarios, leading to a complicated and time-consuming process. This study aims to investigate the level of integration between digital building models and crowd simulation, within the scope of design automation. A methodology is presented in which existing ontology tools facilitate knowledge representation and mining throughout the process. Several information models are used to integrate, automate and provide feedback to the design decision-making processes. The proposed concept thus reduces the effort required to create valid simulation scenarios by applying represented knowledge, and provides feedback based on results and design objectives. To apply and test the methodology a system was developed, which is introduced here. The context of building performance during evacuation scenarios is considered, but additional design perspectives can be included. The system development section expands on the essential theoretical concepts required and the case study section shows a practical implementation of the system.     

A grid-based spatial data model for the simulation and analysis of individual behaviours in micro-spatial environments

As crowd simulation in micro-spatial environment is more widely applied in urban planning and management, the construction of an appropriate spatial data model that supports such applications becomes essential. To address the requirements necessary to building a model of crowd simulation and people–place relationship analysis in micro-spatial environments, the concept of the grid as a basic unit of people–place data association is presented in this article. Subsequently, a grid-based spatial data model is developed for modelling spatial data using Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of the model for crowd simulations in indoor and outdoor spatial environments is described. There are four advantages of this model: first, both the geometrical characteristics of geographic entities and behaviour characteristics of individuals within micro-spatial environments are involved; second, the object-oriented model and spatial topological relationships are fused; third, the integrated expression of indoor and outdoor environments can be realised; and fourth, crowd simulation models, such as Multi-agent System (MAS) and Cellular Automata (CA), can be further fused for intelligent simulation and the analysis of individual behaviours. Lastly, this article presents an experimental implementation of the data model, individual behaviours are simulated and analysed to illustrate the potential of the proposed model.     

基于全局路径规划的相互速度障碍物人群疏散方法

针对相互速度障碍物（RVO）模型缺少全局路径规划,只依靠局部碰撞避免不能很好地模拟复杂的疏散场景问题,提出了一种剩余路径代价尽量小的动态全局路径选择方法。该方法包含路径预处理和路径实时更新两部分:第一部分使用快速最短路径算法（SPFA）求取场景最短路径（SSP）;第二部分根据SSP快速动态地计算每个个体的最优疏散路径,并使用KD树优化障碍物阻挡判断过程。最后将方法扩展到多楼层、多障碍物、多通道、多出口的复杂场景实现了近千人的仿真实验。实验结果表明,该方法在多个场景中都取得了良好的路径规划效果。