大通河天王沟水电站泥沙设计重点问题探讨

天王沟水库坝前水深和库容都较小,且入库沙量相对较多,库沙比仅为0.8,所以水库很快淤积平衡,库区泥沙问题较为严重。天王沟水电站工程泥沙问题主要是研究水库回水与上游铁城电站尾水合理衔接以及保持进水口前＂门前清＂,通过对入库水沙分析提出的水库泥沙调度运行方式及防排沙措施,基本解决了电站的主要工程泥沙问题。     

丹江口水库入库径流变化特征分析

为了揭示丹江口水库入库径流的变化特征及其对南水北调中线工程供水的可能影响,采用Mann–Kendall趋势检验方法、Markov过程和游程理论对丹江口水库实际入库径流序列的趋势性和丰枯变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:①丹江口水库入库径流呈下降趋势,1999～2017年年均径流量较1956～1998年减少了50.5亿m~3,主要是由于汛期径流减少导致的;②年入库径流出现丰水转丰水、丰水转枯水、平水转枯水、枯水转平水的状态居多,状态转移概率均大于40%;③入库径流发生连续4 a及以上丰、平、枯水年的概率较小,但仍需考虑水库遭遇连续枯水年的调度问题。     

Application of spatially varying storage capacity model for runoff parameterization in semi-arid catchment

This paper introduces the method of designation of water storage capacity for each grid cell within a catchment, which considers topography, vegetation and soil synthetically. For the purpose of hydrological process simulation in semi-arid regions, a spatially varying storage capacity (VSC) model was developed based on the spatial distribution of water storage capacity and the vertical hybrid runoff mechanism. To verify the applicability of the VSC model, both the VSC model and a hybrid runoff model were used to simulate daily runoff processes in the catchment upstream of the Dianzi hydrological station from 1973 to 1979. The results showed that the annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.80 for the VSC model, and only 0.67 for the hybrid runoff model. The higher annual average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of the VSC model means that this hydrological model can better simulate daily runoff processes in semi-arid regions. Furthermore, as a distributed hydrological model, the VSC model can be applied in regional water resource management.     

海绵城市建设中若干水文学问题的研讨

针对海绵城市建设面临的问题和挑战,提出了以水循环为纽带、将城市暴雨-径流、水污染治理和城市生态绿地、湿地建设与市政建设(排水、排污)规划管理联系为一体的"城市水系统"的概念与方法。基于水文学原理,分析了目前海绵城市建设中最为关键、也是质疑较多的年径流总量控制率概念,指出现行的年径流总量控制率的计算实质是年降水总量控制率。如果回归到水文学概念,年径流总量控制率就必须与水文系统响应的增益因子,即径流系数建立内在的联系;需要研究径流系数并非常数,而是与土壤湿度、降水强度和下垫面组合的时变非线性理论问题。此外,对比分析了现行海绵城市建设低影响开发措施和改进后的年径流总量控制率之间的关系,深入剖析了"城市看海"发生的条件与风险。最后就海绵城市建设与规划的水文学基础亟待改进的方面:径流系数非线性、区分自然条件和城市化后的蓄水量变化的差别、考虑河湖水系调蓄和陆地蒸散发、与流域大海绵调控结合、风险管理等,进行了研讨,并提出了未来我国海绵城市建设的若干建议。     

泥沙淤积对公路黄土坝式路堤的影响研究

为了研究泥沙淤积对公路黄土坝式路堤的影响,根据坝式路堤实际情况,考虑泥沙危害和来源,综合考虑水域面积内及分水岭内降雨径流的入库量,得出径流深及最终年入库量,由此得出坡面产沙量。工程实例计算结果表明:由于没有径流,泥沙主要来源是降雨引起的侵蚀跟随地上径流而流进库区;分析了三种泥沙淤积对坝式路堤影响的情况,根据入库量计算出产沙量,得到每年入库的泥沙体积,并计算出泥沙淤积总量及有效库容;经过若干年的泥沙淤积,库区的有效库容仅剩设计库容的20%左右。     

黄河花园口断面近60年来水量变化分析

根据《黄河水资源综合规划》中1956-2000年和《黄河水资源公报》中2001-2015年黄河花园口断面以上区域降水量,断面实测径流量、天然径流量和水资源总量组成的1956-2015年60年系列花园口断面来水数据,分析60年系列来水过程并对比1956-1979年、1956-2000年、1956-2015年、1980-2000年、1980-2015年和2001-2015年系列平均断面以上区域降水量、断面实测径流量、天然径流量、水资源总量数据成果。1956-2015年60年间,花园口以上区域年降水量年际变化不大,其中1980-2000年系列平均降水量相对偏小;花园口断面实测径流量、天然径流量和水资源总量年际变化大且总体渐次减少,临近近期且均值系列最短的2001-2015年,平均实测径流量、天然径流量和水资源总量均为各系列平均最小值。1990年左右以来,经济社会用水量增加、包括退耕、禁牧和矿山开采等带来的下垫面条件改变,已成为花园口断面来水量渐次减少的主要影响因素。     

巨龙湖水库兴利复核与径流调节分析

巨龙湖水库为多年调节水库,水库多年平均总入库水量为1 011.24万m^3,兴利库容为1 023.57万m^3,水库年损失429.37万m^3,每年补给傲户取水库水量15.95万m^3。当水量调节系数α为0.778时,计算兴利库容为1 026.36万m^3。文章介绍了水库水位-面积、库容关系成果,进行了不同保证率径流年内分配。     

基于随机森林与支持向量机的水库长期径流预报

水库长期径流预报对于研判水文情势变化和指导水库调度管理具有重要意义。针对云南龙江水库年、汛期和枯水期平均入库径流,利用随机森林从环流指数、海温、气压和前期月径流中选取关键预报因子,基于粒子群与交叉验证相结合的算法优选参数,建立随机森林与支持向量机模型,开展龙江水库入库径流预报研究。结果表明:太平洋中北部与西部气候因子对径流预报的影响较大,前期月径流对年、汛期径流的重要性偏低,但对枯水期的影响程度与部分气候因子相当。随机森林与支持向量机模型总体精度较高,模拟与预报的合格率均达到85%以上,平均绝对百分比误差均低于15%,支持向量机的泛化能力强于随机森林,但二者在局部极值流量处的预报精度尚有待提升。     

葛洲坝-三峡水库不同蓄水阶段对中下游水沙影响

以葛洲坝-三峡梯级水库为研究对象,根据水库的不同运行阶段划分研究时段,基于寸滩、宜昌、汉口、大通站1954~2008年的日流量和日含沙量资料,计算分析了梯级水库运行对长江中下游输沙量及水沙关系的影响。结果表明:4个水文站的年输沙量、含沙量总体呈下降趋势,梯级水库运行对中下游输沙量及水沙关系的影响与水库库容和距离水库远近有关;水库拦截造成的泥沙减少与年径流量变化无关,与径流量的季节分配变化有关,径流量季节分配的变化和梯级水库的蓄水拦沙都使大通站月输沙量的年内分配更加均匀。     

年径流变差系数CVR经验公式及其参数的地理综合

在涉水工程设计初期,需要对涉水工程的设计年径流进行分析计算,以确定工程不同保证率的正常年来水量,从而指导工程运行管理过程中的兴利调节。而设计年径流分析计算的核心就是计算设计流域年径流3个统计参数,即:年径流均值、变差系数和偏态系数。对于有实测资料的设计流域来讲,上述3个统计参数可通过对实测资料进行频率分析计算确定。对于无实测资料的设计流域,一般通过经验公式求得。现介绍了山西省无资料地区设计年径流变差系数CVR经验公式形成过程以及参数的地理综合。引入了流域气候特点和下垫面条件对CVR经验公式中各种参数的影响,提出了不同水文分区参数的综合结果。并通过对已有实测资料的水文站点进行演算,对误差进行了分析对比,从误差统计结果看,年径流变差系数CVR经验公式以及参数其计算精度能满足无资料地区设计年径流变差系数的求算。     

环太湖各水资源分区入出湖水量及贡献分析

基于1986-2018年环太湖入出湖水量、降水量、引排水量资料,采用TFPW-MK趋势检验法分析了环太湖各水资源分区年入出湖水量及太湖换水周期的变化特征,并讨论了湖西区年入湖水量以及望虞河和太浦河年出湖水量显著变化的影响因素.结果表明:环太湖年入出湖水量、净入湖水量与各水资源分区年入出湖水量及占比呈现不同的变化趋势;望...     

漳河水库入库径流序列R/S分析

依据漳河水库1963～2008年入库径流资料,利用法对其未来变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:①H0.5,即入库径流过去的一个增长或减少趋势意味着将来的一个减少或增长趋势,未来年径流量可能呈现持续下降的趋势;②1995年为流域径流系列的突变点,对前后两个序列的特征值进行统计分析,均具有明显的差异,已经不符合"一致性"的要求;③流域人类活动日趋频繁,使得流域下垫面条件发生了较大的变化,对于漳河水库入库径流量变化有较大的影响。     

R/S分析法与GM（1，1）灰色模型相结合的鸳鸯池水库入库径流量预测

依据鸳鸯池水库1959-2015年实测入库年径流量系列,利用年代际径流量平均值、径流年内分配集中度分析了入库年径流量年际变化和年内分配特征,同时分别采用基本GM(1,1)、改进GM(1,1)以及R/S分析法与基本GM(1,1)灰色模型相结合的方法预测了入库年径流量。结果表明:入库年径流量时间序列有明显分形特征,H指数为0. 922;径流量时间序列具有状态持续性,即未来年径流量变化趋势与过去一致;年径流量系列长期记忆性以41 a为周期;经R/S分析后采用基本GM(1,1)灰色模型预测得出2013、2014、2015年入库径流量分别为3. 60×108、2. 97×108、3. 67×108m3,与实测值相比,相对误差分别为20. 69%、8. 97%、8. 10%,较基本GM(1,1)、改进GM(1,1)灰色模型的预测精度高。据此预测得出2020年入库径流量将比2015年增加8. 99%。     

Analysis of multi‐year drought and high inflow events into the eildon storage

This article presents information from an analysis of the multi‐year drought and high flow durations obtained from a historical time series (1891–1989) of annual inflows aggregated from all streams and rivers flowing into the Eildon Storage, a major storage for irrigation water in Northern Victoria, South‐East Australia. The drought and high inflow duration sequences are found to be affected by the fluctuating climatic cycle, called the Southern Oscillation. The multi‐year drought and high inflow duration sequences are analysed first through a model with IID observations in the annual runoff and second, through a first order auto‐regressive Markov model with a two‐state Markov chain with time homogeneous transition assumption. An alternative approach is taken to estimate the termination rate of multi‐year drought and high inflow duration sequences, based on frequency analysis and the basic concepts of reliability theory. This approach confirms the initial findings.     

刘家峡水库对水沙变异影响分析

利用刘家峡水库运行前后进出库控制站的水文资料,对水库运行以来的径流泥沙特征进行了分析。研究表明:(1)水库运行对进出库年径流量影响很小,对年内分配影响大;(2)单库运行期水库蓄水拦沙,出库洪峰流量削减,年内径流量分配发生变化,泥沙量大幅度减少;(3)龙羊峡水库运行后的联合运行期,洪峰流量略有削减,年内蓄水过程改变后仍有一定的拦沙作用,出库含沙量较单库运行期增加;(4)水库运行减小了出库含沙量,并没有改变出库含沙量与入库含沙量的线性关系。     

Analysis of Hydrologic Property of Poyang Lake

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鄱阳湖水文特性分析

The Poyang lake is currently the largest freshwater lake in China. Hydrologic properties of this lake, including precipitation, runoff, flood, sediment transport and so on have been analyzed on basis of large amount of measurements. Variation of these properties within a year and among years and the regional distribution are explored. The encounter probability of the outflow from Poyang Lake with that from Changjiang River is computed and the detention volume of Poyang Lake is analyzed. In accordance with water balance theory, the detention storage volume of Poyang Lake and Changjiang River corresponding to the annual maximum 60-day flood volumes in 9 typical heavy flood years of 1968, 1969, 1973, 1980, 1983, 1996 and 1998 have been calculated. The detention storage capacity of both the Lake and the River ranges from 5.6 billion to 16.5 billion m\+3, 11.5 billion m\+3 at average. Among which, the detention storage capacity of Poyang Lake is 9.5 billion m\+3, accounting for 82.6%. Poyang Lake has played a very important role in detaining floods from the five rivers of the Lake system as well as floods on the river section from Changjiang to Bali. There would have more frequent and more serious flooding on the middle and lower Changjiang River, especially in the region around Hukou if there were no Poyang Lake to detain and store the floodwater.     

Seasonal variation of fecal indicator bacteria in storm events within the US stormwater database

Bacteria are one of the major causes of surface water impairments in the USA. Over the past several years, best management practices, including detention basins, manufactured devices, grass swales, filters and bioretention cells have been used to remove bacteria and other pollutants from stormwater runoff. However, there are data gaps in the comprehensive studies of bacteria concentrations in stormwater runoff. In this paper, the event mean concentration (EMC) of fecal indicator bacteria (Enterococcus, Escherichia coli, fecal Streptococcus group bacteria, and fecal coliform) across the USA was retrieved from the international stormwater best management practices database to analyze the seasonal variations of inflow and outflow event mean concentrations and removal efficiencies. The Kruskal-Wallis test was employed to determine the seasonal variations of bacteria indicator concentrations and removals, and the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used for comparing different seasonal outcomes. The results indicate that all the inflow EMC of FIB in stormwater runoff is above the water quality criteria. The seasonal differences of fecal Streptococcus group bacteria and fecal coliform are significant. Summer has the potential to increase the bacteria EMC and illustrate the seasonal differences.     

Real-Time Operation of Reservoir System by Genetic Programming

Reservoir operation policy depends on specific values of deterministic variables and predictable actions as well as stochastic variables, in which small differences affect water release and reservoir operation efficiency. Operational rule curves of reservoir are policies which relate water release to the deterministic and stochastic variables such as storage volume and inflow. To operate a reservoir system in real time, a prediction model may be coupled with rule curves to estimate inflow as a stochastic variable. Inappropriate selection of this prediction model increases calculations and impacts the reservoir operation efficiency. Thus, extraction of an operational policy simultaneously with inflow prediction helps the operator to make an appropriate decision to calculate how much water to release from the reservoir without employing a prediction model. This paper addresses the use of genetic programming (GP) to develop a reservoir operation policy simultaneously with inflow prediction. To determine a water release policy, two operational rule curves are considered in each period by using (1) inflow and storage volume at the beginning of each period and (2) inflow of the 1^st, 2^nd, 12^th previous periods and storage volume at the beginning of each period. The obtained objective functions of those rules have only 4.86 and 0.44?% difference in the training and testing data sets. These results indicate that the proposed rule based on deterministic variables is effective in determining optimal rule curves simultaneously with inflow prediction for reservoirs.     

气候变化对北江流域径流影响的模拟研究

通过构建北江流域SWAT分布式水文模型,以北江流域13个雨量站10年逐月降水量及北江流域干流石角水文站同步逐月流量数据为输入条件进行水文模型参数率定,应用气候情景设置方法研究了北江流域在降水和气温等不同气候变化条件下径流量的变化规律。研究表明:气温变化1℃对年径流量及其年内分配的影响变化均在1%以内。降水量变化对年径流量影响十分显著,降水量变化10%对年径流量的影响变化可达到15%,而对径流年内分配的影响变化在1%以内,影响较小。随着气温下降和降水量的增加,枯季径流量占年内分配比例均有所上升,枯水期来水量提高,有利于流域城乡供水安全和生态用水安全。