Mission reliability evaluation based on operational quality data for multistate manufacturing systems

Modern and intelligent manufacturing systems have a prominent multistate feature. However, previous studies of reliability analysis of multistate manufacturing systems mostly focused on the basic reliability of manufacturing systems but disregarded their operating characteristics, which has hindered the development of Prognostics and Health Management technique for intelligent manufacturing systems. Therefore, an evaluation approach of mission reliability for multistate manufacturing systems based on operational quality data is proposed in this paper. First, from the systematic viewpoint of the composition and operational principle of the manufacturing system, the relationship among production task execution state, production equipment degradation state, and produced product quality state is expounded, and the connotation of the mission reliability of multistate manufacturing systems is defined. Second, an extended state task network (ESTN) is presented to organise operational quality data by considering the quality state of work in process (WIP). Third, a fusion model of operational quality data for manufacturing systems is established with the aid of the ESTN, and an operational quality data-oriented evaluation method of mission reliability is been put forward. Finally, a case study of a manufacturing system for a cylinder head is conducted to verify the proposed approach.     

Developing a factory-wide intelligent predictive maintenance system based on Industry 4.0

Abstract

The main purpose of predictive maintenance (PdM) is to reduce unscheduled downtime and consequently improve productivity and reduce production cost. PdM has been featured as a key theme of Industry 4.0. However, the traditional PdM system was only designed for a single tool; as such, the resources allocation will become extremely complicated when hundreds of tools are working together in a factory. A manageable hierarchy and various health indexes are required for factory-wide equipment maintenance. To solve the problem mentioned above, this paper proposes a factory-wide intelligent predictive maintenance system by applying the so-called cyber-physical agent and advanced manufacturing cloud of Things to fulfill the requirements of Industry 4.0, the baseline predictive maintenance scheme to accomplish the PdM functions, and the newly proposed health index hierarchy to supervise factory-wide equipment maintenance.     

Combining preventive maintenance and statistical process control: a preliminary investigation

The economic design of control charts and the optimization of preventive maintenance policies are two research areas that have recently received a great deal of attention in the quality and reliability literature. Both of these research areas are focused on reducing the costs associated with operating manufacturing processes. In addition, it is widely recognized that the maintenance of manufacturing equipment and the quality of manufactured product are related. However, these two research areas are rarely integrated. In this paper, a combined control chart–preventive maintenance strategy is defined for a process which shifts to an out-of-control condition due to a manufacturing equipment failure. An X¯ chart is used in conjunction with an age-replacement preventive maintenance policy to achieve a reduction in operating costs that is superior to the reduction achieved by using only the control chart or the preventive maintenance policy. This superior cost performance is demonstrated using a simulation-optimization approach.     

Joint optimisation of production,maintenance and quality for batch production system subject to varying operational conditions

This paper considers the integration problem of production, maintenance and quality for a capacitated lot-sizing production system subject to deterioration. The effects of varying operational conditions from batch to batch on system reliability and product quality are modelled by proportional hazards models, resulting in non-monotonic failure rate and defect rate. After each batch production, imperfect preventive maintenance (PM) is determined to mitigate the system deterioration, and inspection is taken to sort nonconforming items in the finished goods. Once the cumulative number of nonconforming items exceeds a predetermined threshold, an overhaul is performed to renew the system. An integrated model for optimising production plan, PM plan and overhaul strategy is developed to minimise the total cost while satisfying all product demands. A genetic algorithm is proposed to solve the integrated model efficiently. Numerical results validate the rationality of the model with varying operational conditions consideration and its applicability in economic benefits.     

复杂型材智能加工制造系统的设计

目的 实现新一代信息技术背景下传统铝门窗幕墙型材加工行业的转型升级,以应对复杂型材加工制造存在的成本高、工序繁多等诸多挑战。方法 根据型材加工工艺流程及该行业定制化生产的特点,提出一种涵盖网上下单、订单自动处理、机床智能加工生产的复杂型材智能加工制造系统架构,重点针对自主开发的门窗幕墙型材一站式加工智能机床,研发出一套复杂型材智能加工制造系统。结果 研究了加工信息数字化模型、工艺数据库等关键技术。通过工艺数据库的构建,实现了自动编程系统的搭建。结合Web Service与XML技术,研发出订单自助处理系统、机床智能操作管理系统及其与ERP系统的集成互连,打通了生产各环节之间的技术壁垒,形成了复杂型材一体化加工工艺。结论 实际测试表明,经复杂型材智能加工制造系统一体化制造的复杂型材从接受订单到产品加工完成只需40分钟,大幅提高了生产效率和产品质量,降低了加工成本。本研究为复杂型材智能加工及其他传统制造行业的转型升级提供了有益的借鉴和参考。     

基于数字孪生与深度学习技术的制造加工设备智能化方法研究

针对传统制造加工设备在生产加工过程中存在设备与数据信息联系不紧密,设备使用维护多依赖于人工经验等问题,提出了一种新的设备智能化方法。首先,在信息层建立能反映制造加工设备真实状态的数字孪生体;其次,基于历史加工大数据,通过数字孪生体对加工过程的行为进行建模及深度学习和训练,并利用训练好的人工神经网络根据采集到的实时数据来预测制造加工设备下一时刻的状态,使制造加工设备实现物理层与信息层数据的深度融合,拥有自我感知、自我预测的能力,最终实现智能化;最后,以浆料微流挤出成型设备挤出结构系统的智能化实施过程为例,验证了所提出方法的可行性。实例结果表明该设备智能化方法可有效地对挤出结构系统的运行状态进行监测及预测,为后续提高挤出成型精度提供了有效的数据信息。研究表明数字孪生和深度学习技术能够提升制造加工设备的智能化程度,可为未来智能制造的发展提供理论支撑。     

Predictive maintenance of complex system with multi-level reliability structure

Onboard sensors, which constantly monitor the states of a system and its components, have made the predictive maintenance (PdM) of a complex system possible. To date, system reliability has been extensively studied with the assumption that systems are either single-component systems or they have a deterministic reliability structure. However, in many realistic problems, there are complex multi-component systems with uncertainties in the system reliability structure. This paper presents a PdM scheme for complex systems by employing discrete time Markov chain models for modelling multiple degradation processes of components and a Bayesian network (BN) model for predicting system reliability. The proposed method can be considered as a special type of dynamic Bayesian network because the same BN is repeatedly used over time for evaluating system reliability and the inter-time–slice connection of the same node is monitored by a sensor. This PdM scheme is able to make probabilistic inference at any system level, so PdM can be scheduled accordingly.     

维修管理模式对制造企业质量控制影响的实证研究

可靠的设备预防维修水平和卓越的产品质量保证能力是保障产品过程质量的关键,现有多数研究集中在质量管理模式与企业绩效的关系分析。在对过程质量控制、设备维修管理评述的基础上,探讨了设备维修管理模式与维修绩效及过程质量控制绩效间的关系。以国内制造企业的连续生产方式为研究对象,运用结构方程模型剖析了RCM、TPM、设备采购管理与和设备维修绩效、过程质量控制绩效的路径关系,发现基础维修管理活动对维修绩效有间接影响,RCM、TPM对设备维修绩效有显著影响,路径系数分别为0.346、0.717,设备维修绩效对过程质量控制绩效的影响显著,路径系数为0922。证明制造企业为提升产品质量,需要完善其设备预防维修系统。     

Lifetime cost optimization with time-dependent reliability

Product lifetime cost is largely determined by product lifetime reliability. In product design, the former is minimized while the latter is treated as a constraint and is usually estimated by statistical means. In this work, a new lifetime cost optimization model is developed where the product lifetime reliability is predicted with computational models derived from physical principles. With the physics-based reliability method, the state of a system is indicated by computational models, and the time-dependent system reliability is then predicted for a given set of distributions and stochastic processes in the model input. A sampling approach to extreme value distributions of input stochastic processes is employed to make the system reliability analysis efficient and accurate. The physics-based reliability analysis is integrated with the lifetime cost model. The integration enables the minimal lifetime costs including those of maintenance and warranty. Two design examples are used to demonstrate the proposed model.     

Joint production and quality control of unreliable batch manufacturing systems with rectifying inspection

Production control policy and economic sampling plan design problems have been studied separately in previous research. This paper considers a joint production control policy and economic single sampling plan design for an unreliable batch manufacturing system. The production is controlled by a modified hedging point policy which consists of building and maintaining a safety stock of finished product to avoid shortages during corrective maintenance. The main objective of this paper is to determine simultaneously the economic production quantity, the optimal safety stock level and the economic sampling plan design which minimise the expected overall cost. A stochastic mathematical model is developed and solved using a simulation optimisation approach based on the response surface methodology. Simulation is used to imitate the complex dynamic and stochastic behaviour of processes as in the real-life industrial systems. The obtained results show clearly strong interactions between production quantity, inventory state and sampling plan design which confirm the necessity of jointly considering production and quality control parameters in an integrated model. Moreover, it is shown a significant impact of production system reliability on the economic sampling plan design and therefore on the quality of finished product delivered to consumers. Numerical example and sensitivity analyses are presented for illustrative purposes.     

Optimal decision of an economic production quantity model for imperfect manufacturing under hybrid maintenance policy with shortages and partial backlogging

Considering the characteristics of the stochastic shift of the machine state and the uncertainty of the product quality of production, in this paper, we develop an optimisation decision of economic production quantity model for an imperfect manufacturing system under hybrid maintenance policy with shortages and partial backlogging. We assume that the production process is imperfect stemming from the machine reliability and the probability of out-of-control, a hybrid maintenance policy combined of emergency maintenance and preventive maintenance is executed during each production run. Three decision models based on the scenarios of machine breakdown and repair time are developed. The optimal production quantity and maintenance inspection number during each production run are solved with minimising the expected average cost of the system. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the model. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to analyse the impacts of key parameters on the optimal decision. Some implications related to the effective and economical execution of maintenance policy for practitioners are derived.     

A framework to practical predictive maintenance modeling for multi-state systems

A simple practical framework for predictive maintenance (PdM)-based scheduling of multi-state systems (MSS) is developed. The maintenance schedules are derived from a system-perspective using the failure times of the overall system as estimated from its performance degradation trends.

The system analyzed in this work is a flow transmission water pipe system. The various factors influencing PdM-based scheduling are identified and their impact on the system reliability and performance are quantitatively studied. The estimated times to replacement of the MSS may also be derived from the developed model.

The results of the model simulation demonstrate the significant impact of maintenance quality and the criteria for the call for maintenance (user demand) on the system reliability and mean performance characteristics. A slight improvement in maintenance quality is found to postpone the system replacement time by manifold. The consistency in the quality of maintenance work with minimal variance is also identified as a very important factor that enhances the system's future operational and downtime event predictability.

The studies also reveal that in order to reduce the frequency of maintenance actions, it is necessary to lower the minimum user demand from the system if possible, ensuring at the same time that the system still performs its intended function effectively.

The model proposed can be utilized to implement a PdM program in the industry with a few modifications to suit the individual industrial systems’ needs.     

Optimal reliability, warranty and price for new products

The success of a new product depends on both engineering decisions (product reliability) and marketing decisions (price, warranty). A higher reliability results in a higher manufacturing cost and higher sale price. Consumers are willing to pay a higher price only if they can be assured about product reliability. Product warranty is one such tool to signal reliability with a longer warranty period indicating better reliability. Better warranty terms result in increased sales and also higher expected warranty servicing costs. Warranty costs are reduced by improvements in product reliability. Learning effects result in the unit manufacturing cost decreasing with total sales volume and this in turn impacts on the sale price. As such, reliability, price and warranty decisions need to be considered jointly. The paper develops a model to determine the optimal product reliability, price and warranty strategy that achieve the biggest total integrated profit for a general repairable product sold under a free replacement-repair warranty strategy in a market and looks at two scenarios for the pricing and warranty of the product. The model assumes that the sale rate increases as the warranty period increases and decreases as the price increases. The maximum principle method is used to obtain optimal solutions for dynamic price and warranty situations. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the proposed model.     

Maintenance scheduling of a manufacturing system subject to deterioration

This paper presents an integrated model for the joint determination of both optimal inspection strategy and optimal repair policy for a manufacturing system whose resulting output is subject to system state. An appropriate maintenance strategy is essential to optimize revenue from a manufacturing system which is in continuous operation and subject to deterioration. The optimum policy balances the amount of maintenance required to increase availability against the loss of revenue arising from the down time: insufficient maintenance leads to an increase in the number of defective items, low profit and low maintenance cost; excessive maintenance results in a reduction in the proportion of defective items, high profit and high maintenance cost. In this paper, an intensity control model adapted to partial information provides an optimal inspection intensity and repair degree of the system as an optimal control process to yield maximum revenue. The solution is obtained through formulating an equivalent deterministic Hamilton-Jacobi equation. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the behavior of the optimal control process. The optimal control process determines a solution to both optimum inspection frequency and optimal replacement policy which results in an optimal production run length of the system.     

Two-layer model of equipment fault propagation in manufacturing system

Equipment fault is a major factor that affects the reliability of manufacturing systems. Fault source identification and propagation path search are primary means to reduce and eliminate equipment faults. To this end, this paper proposed a two-layer model of equipment fault propagation in a manufacturing system. One layer, modeled by a small-world network, is a network of parts for a single equipment device. The other, represented by the production relationships of the manufacturing process, is a network of equipment devices for a manufacturing system. Hence, the propagation path of an equipment fault is divided into physical propagation inside a single equipment device and flow propagation within the manufacturing process. The intensity of physical propagation is given by the product of the fault load and the propagation probability between fault nodes within a single equipment device, whereas the flow propagation intensity is equivalent to the yield loss of the manufacturing system due to equipment fault. Therefore, the total intensity of fault propagation in a manufacturing system is given by the product of these two intensities. Subsequently, the ant colony algorithm is used to find the propagation paths with the maximum intensity. Finally, the proposed method is verified using an example of a camshaft manufacturing system.     

Environmental issue in an integrated production and maintenance control of unreliable manufacturing/remanufacturing systems

This paper addresses a joint production and maintenance problem under environmental constraints and reliability issues in a manufacturing/remanufacturing context. The manufacturing system is composed of one machine producing one type of product. The remanufacturing system, also composed of one machine, retrieves returned products from the market in order to refurbish them. The manufacturing and remanufacturing systems aim to satisfy random demands under a given service level. Moreover, the entire system generates harmful emissions. Exceeding carbon emission limits defined by authorities may risk sanctions. We aim to propose a compromise between ecologic and economic production and maintenance plan by calling on green subcontracting in order to satisfy the demand and avoid emission excess. Three models are proposed in this paper. These models tackle mainly the basic production problems and propose alternative equivalent solution schemas for future extensions. The robustness and usefulness of the proposals are illustrated with various examples and sensitivity analyses.     

基于故障状态演化的租赁设备定周期多维护策略研究

为同时保证设备承租方对租赁设备的可用度,以及优化设备出租方的设备维护成本,提出了基于故障状态的定周期检测的多维护方式策略。首先,对租赁设备进行定周期检测,基于设备故障率来选择相应的维护策略,采取役龄回退的方式描述采取不同的维护策略后设备状态的恢复情况。其次,综合考虑周期维护成本、小修成本、惩罚成本和租赁延迟成本,建立了以出租方成本最低为目标的多维护策略优化模型。通过数学建模和数理统计方法,利用MATLAB仿真进行算例分析,将其与定周期单一预防性维护策略进行对比,证明了对租赁设备进行定周期多策略维护,其维护效果较单一预防性维护有较大的提升。     

Decision-making on multi-mould maintenance in production scheduling

The reliability of a critical tool like a mould on a machine affects the productivity seriously in many manufacturing firms. In fact, its breakdown frequency is even higher than machines. The decision-making on when mould maintenance should be started become a challenging issue. In the previous study, the mould maintenance plans were integrated with the traditional production schedules in a plastics production system. It was proven that considering machine and mould maintenance in production scheduling could improve the overall reliability and productivity of the production system. However, the previous model assumed that each job contained single operation. It is not workable in other manufacturing systems such as die stamping which may contain multiple operations with multiple moulds in each job. Thus, this study models a new problem for multi-mould production-maintenance scheduling. A genetic algorithm approach is applied to minimise the makespan of all jobs in 10 hypothetical problem sets. A joint scheduling (JS) approach is proposed to decide the start times of maintenance activities during scheduling. The numerical result shows that the JS approach has a good performance in the new problem and it is sensitive to the characteristic of the setup time defined.     

A methodology for simultaneous optimisation of design parameters for the preventive maintenance and quality policy incorporating Taguchi loss function

The performance of a production system depends on the breakdown-free operation of equipment and processes. Maintenance and quality control play an important role in achieving this goal. In addition to deteriorating with time, equipment may experience a quality shift (i.e. process moves to out-of-control state), which is characterised by a higher rejection rate and a higher tendency to fail. This paper develops an integrated model for joint optimisation of preventive maintenance interval and control parameters incorporating the Taguchi loss function. We consider two types of maintenance policies: minimal corrective maintenance that maintains the state of the equipment without affecting the age and imperfect preventive maintenance that upgrades the equipment in between ‘as good as new’ and ‘as bad as old’ condition. The proposed model enables the determination of the optimal value of each of the four decision variables, i.e. sample size (n), sample frequency (h), control limit coefficient (k), and preventive maintenance interval (t _PM) that minimises the expected total cost of the integration per unit time. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the effect of the cost parameters on the joint economic design of preventive maintenance and process quality control policy. The sensitivity of the various parameters is also examined.     

考虑制造商设备维修的制造—零售供应链决策与协调

设备可靠性是影响供应不确定的重要因素。为了研究企业内部的维修策略对整条供应链的运营策略产生的具体影响，在考虑设备维修的情况下，针对单个制造商和单个零售商构成的二级供应链，运用Stackelberg博弈的方法研究制造商的最优维修策略和定价策略以及零售商的最优订货量。研究结果表明，制造商的预防性维修次数存在上限且最大维修次数与设备可靠性无关；预防性维修策略有助于提高制造商的产量，降低产品的批发价格，但制造商的最优产出量不会达到企业的最大产能；收益共享契约能够实现供应链的协调；制造商在任何情形下都具有提高设备可靠性的动机，但零售商只会在市场规模较大时才存在为制造商提供设备改造资金的动机。