Public mis-notification of coastal water quality: a probabilistic evaluation of posting errors at Huntington Beach, California

Whenever measurements of fecal pollution in coastal bathing waters reach levels that might pose a significant health risk, warning signs are posted on public beaches in California. Analysis of historical shoreline monitoring data from Huntington Beach, southern California, reveals that protocols used to decide whether to post a sign are prone to error. Errors in public notification (referred to here as posting errors) originate from the variable character of pollutant concentrations in the ocean, the relatively infrequent sampling schedule adopted by most monitoring programs (daily to weekly), and the intrinsic error associated with binary advisories in which the public is either warned or not. In this paper, we derive a probabilistic framework for estimating posting error rates, which at Huntington Beach range from 0 to 41%, and show that relatively high sample-to-sample correlations (>0.4) are required to significantly reduce binary advisory posting errors. Public mis-notification of coastal water quality can be reduced by utilizing probabilistic approaches for predicting current coastal water quality, and adopting analog, instead of binary, warning systems.     

Decadal and shorter period variability of surf zone water quality at Huntington Beach,California

The concentration of fecal indicator bacteria in the surf zone at Huntington Beach, CA, varies over time scales that span at least 7 orders of magnitude, from minutes to decades. Sources of this variability include historical changes in the treatment and disposal of wastewater and dry weather runoff, El Ni?o events, seasonal variations in rainfall, spring-neap tidal cycles, sunlight-induced mortality of bacteria, and nearshore mixing. On average, total coliform concentrations have decreased over the past 43 years, although point sources of shoreline contamination (storm drains, river outlets, and submarine outfalls) continue to cause transiently poor water quality. These transient point sources typically persist for 5-8 yr and are modulated by the phase of the moon, reflecting the influence of tides on the sourcing and transport of pollutants in the coastal ocean. Indicator bacteria are very sensitive to sunlight therefore, the time of day when samples are collected can influence the outcome of water quality testing. These results demonstrate that coastal water quality is forced by a complex combination of local and external processes and raise questions about the efficacy of existing marine bathing water monitoring and reporting programs.     

Nowcasting and forecasting concentrations of biological contaminants at beaches: a feasibility and case study

Public concern over microbial contamination of recreational waters has increased in recent years. A common approach to evaluating beach water quality has been to use the persistence model which assumes that day-old monitoring results provide accurate estimates of current concentrations. This model is frequently incorrect Recent studies have shown that statistical regression models based on least-squares fitting often are more accurate. To make such models more generally available, the Virtual Beach (VB) tool was developed. VB is public-domain software that prescribes site-specific predictive models. In this study we used VB as a tool to evaluate statistical modeling for predicting Escherichia coli (E. coli levels at Huntington Beach, on Lake Erie. The models were based on readily available weather and environmental data, plus U.S. Geological Service onsite data. Although models for Great Lakes beaches have frequently been fitted to multiyear data sets, this work demonstrates that useful statistical models can be based on limited data sets collected over much shorter time periods, leading to dynamic models that are periodically refitted as new data become available. Comparisons of the resulting nowcasts (predictions of current, but yet unknown, bacterial levels) with observations verified the effectiveness of VB and showed that dynamic models are about as accurate as long-term static models. Finally, fitting models to forecasted explanatory variables, bacteria forecasts were found to compare favorably to nowcasts, yielding adjusted coefficients of determination (adjusted R2) of about 0.40.     

Tiered approach for identification of a human fecal pollution source at a recreational beach: case study at Avalon Bay,Catalina Island,California

Recreational marine beaches in California are posted as unfit for swimming when the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) exceeds any of seven concentration standards. Finding and mitigating sources of shoreline FIB is complicated by the many potential human and nonhuman sources of these organisms and the complex fate and transport processes that control their concentrations. In this study, a three-tiered approach is used to identify human and nonhuman sources of FIB in Avalon Bay, a popular resort community on Catalina Island in southern California. The first and second tiers utilize standard FIB tests to spatially isolate the FIB signal, to characterize the variability of FIB over a range of temporal scales, and to measure FIB concentrations in potential sources of these organisms. In the third tier, water samples from FIB "hot spots" and sources are tested for human-specific bacteria Bacteroides/Prevotella and enterovirus to determine whether the FIB are from human sewage or from nonhuman sources such as bird feces. FIB in Avalon Bay appear to be from multiple, primarily land-based, sources including bird droppings, contaminated subsurface water, leaking drains, and runoff from street wash-down actvities. Multiple shoreline samples and two subsurface water samples tested positive for human-specific bacteria and enterovirus, suggesting that at least a portion of the FIB contamination is from human sewage.     

Escherichia coli sampling reliability at a frequently closed Chicago Beach: monitoring and management implications

Monitoring beaches for recreational water quality is becoming more common, but few sampling designs or policy approaches have evaluated the efficacy of monitoring programs. The authors intensively sampled water for E. coli (N=1770) at 63rd Street Beach, Chicago for 6 months in 2000 in order to (1) characterize spatial-temporal trends, (2) determine between and within transect variation, and (3) estimate sample size requirements and determine sampling reliability. E. coli counts were highly variable within and between sampling sites but spatially and diurnally autocorrelated. Variation in counts decreased with water depth and time of day. Required number of samples was high for 70% precision around the critical closure level (i.e., 6 within or 24 between transect replicates). Since spatial replication may be cost prohibitive, composite sampling is an alternative once sources of error have been well defined. The results suggest that beach monitoring programs may be requiring too few samples to fulfill management objectives desired. As the recreational water quality national database is developed, it is important that sampling strategies are empirically derived from a thorough understanding of the sources of variation and the reliability of collected data. Greater monitoring efficacy will yield better policy decisions, risk assessments, programmatic goals, and future usefulness of the information.     

Peer reviewed: testing water quality for pesticide pollution

U.S. GeologicalSurvey investigations reveal widespread contamination of the nation's water resources.     

Gaseous elemental mercury in the marine boundary layer: evidence for rapid removal in anthropogenic pollution

In this study, gas-phase elemental mercury (Hg0) and related species (including inorganic reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) and particulate mercury (PHg)) were measured at Cheeka Peak Observatory (CPO), Washington State, in the marine boundary layer during 2001-2002. Air of continental origin containing anthropogenic pollutants from the urban areas to the east contained on average 5.3% lower Hg0 levels as compared to the marine background. This result is difficult to reconcile since it is known that industrial emissions in our region are sources of Hg0. The rate of removal of Hg0 from a pollution plume necessary to account for our observations is inconsistent with the accepted view of Hg0 as a stable atmospheric pollutant. The largest and most frequent Hg0 loss events occurred in the presence of increased ozone (O3) during the summer. Hg0 and O3 also display diurnal cycles that are out-of-phase with one another. In other seasons Hg0 behavior is less consistent, as we observe weak positive correlations with O3 and occasional Hg0 enhancements in local pollution. RGM and PHg concentrations are enhanced only slightly during Hg0 loss events, comprising a small fraction of the mercury pool (approximately 3%). Long-range transported pollution of Asian origin was also detected at CPO, and this contains both higher and lower levels of Hg0 as compared to the background with maximum changes being <20%. Here, the more photochemically processed the air mass, as determined by propane/ethane ratios, the more likely we are to observe Hg0 loss. Air from the marine background in summer displays a significant diurnal cycle with a phase that matches the diurnal cycles seen in polluted air masses. A Junge lifetime for Hg0 in the clean marine boundary layer is calculated to be 7.1 months, which is on the low end of previous estimates (0.5-2 yr).     

Regional public health cost estimates of contaminated coastal waters: a case study of gastroenteritis at southern California beaches

We present estimates of annual public health impacts, both illnesses and cost of illness, attributable to excess gastrointestinal illnesses caused by swimming in contaminated coastal waters at beaches in southern California. Beach-specific enterococci densities are used as inputs to two epidemiological dose-response models to predict the risk of gastrointestinal illness at 28 beaches spanning 160 km of coastline in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. We use attendance data along with the health cost of gastrointestinal illness to estimate the number of illnesses among swimmers and their likely economic impact. We estimate that between 627,800 and 1,479,200 excess gastrointestinal illnesses occur at beaches in Los Angeles and Orange Counties each year. Using a conservative health cost of gastroenteritis, this corresponds to an annual economic loss of dollars 21 or dollars 51 million depending upon the underlying epidemiological model used (in year 2000 dollars). Results demonstrate that improving coastal water quality could result in a reduction of gastrointestinal illnesses locally and a concurrent savings in expenditures on related health care costs.     

Field deployment of thin film passive air samplers for persistent organic pollutants: a study in the urban atmospheric boundary layer

This paper reports on the first field deployment of rapidly equilibrating thin-film passive air samplers under ambient conditions. The POlymer-coated Glass (POG) samplers have a coating of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) less than 1 microm thick applied to a glass surface. This can be dissolved off after exposure and prepared for the quantification of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) that have partitioned into the film during field exposure. In this study, POGs were deployed at various heights on the CN Tower in Toronto, Canada, to investigate the vertical distribution of selected compounds (PCBs, PAHs, organochlorine pesticides) in the atmospheric boundary layer of an urban area. The feasibility of the method to detect POPs from a few cubic meters of air was demonstrated, indicating the potential for rapid, low-volume sampling of air for ambient levels of POPs. PAH levels declined sharply with height, confirming ground-level emissions in urban areas as sources of these compounds; PCBs did the same, although less strongly. Different sampling events detected different vertical distributions of OC pesticides which could be related to local or distantsources, and variations in POPs on the samplers in these different events/heights demonstrate the dynamic nature of sources and atmospheric mixing of POPs.     

Predicting the frequency of water quality standard violations: a probabilistic approach for TMDL development

To address the impaired condition of the water bodies listed under Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act, over 40 000 total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for pollutants must be developed during the next 10-15 years. Most of these will be based on the results of water quality simulation models. However, the failure of most models to incorporate residual variability and parameter uncertainty in their predictions makes them unsuitable for TMDL development. The percentile-based standards increasingly used by the EPA and the requirement for a margin of safety in TMDLs necessitate that model predictions include quantitative information on uncertainty. We describe a probabilistic approach to model-based TMDL assessment that addresses this issue and is suitable for use with any type of mathematical model. To demonstrate our approach, we employ a eutrophication model for the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, and evaluate compliance with the state chlorophyll a standard. Any observed variability in chlorophyll athatis notexplained bythe model is explicitly incorporated via a residual error term. This probabilistic term captures the effects of any processes that are not considered in the model and allows for direct assessment of the frequency of standard violations. Additionally, by estimating and propagating the effects of parameter uncertainty on model predictions, we are able to provide an explicit basis for choosing a TMDL that includes a margin of safety. We conclude by discussing the potential for models currently supported by the EPA to be adapted to provide the type of probabilistic information that is necessary to support TMDL decisions.     

MTBE ambient water quality criteria development: a public/private partnership

A public/private partnership was established in 1997, under the administrative oversight of the American Petroleum Institute (API), to develop aquatic toxicity data sufficient to calculate ambient water quality criteria for methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), a gasoline oxygenate. The MTBE Water Quality Criteria Work Group consisted of representatives from private companies, trade associations, and USEPA. Funding was provided by the private entities, while aquatic biological/toxicological expertise was provided by industry and USEPA scientists. This public/private partnership constituted a nonadversarial, cost-effective, and efficient process for generating the toxicity data necessary for deriving freshwater and marine ambient water quality criteria. Existing aquatic toxicity data were evaluated for acceptability, consistent with USEPA guidance, and nineteen freshwater and marine tests were conducted by commercial laboratories as part of this effort to satisfy the federal criteria database requirements. Definitive test data were developed and reported under the oversight of industry study monitors and Good Laboratory Practice standards auditors, and with USEPA scientists participating in advisory and critical review roles. Calculated, preliminary freshwater criteria for acute (Criterion Maximum Concentration) and chronic (Criterion Continuous Concentration) exposure effect protection are 151 and 51 mg MTBE/L, respectively. Calculated, preliminary marine criteria for acute and chronic exposure effect protection are 53 and 18 mg MTBE/L, respectively. These criteria values may be used for surface water quality management purposes, and they indicate that ambient MTBE concentrations documented in U. S. surface waters to date do not constitute a risk to aquatic organisms.     

News: Microbiologists call for action to protect global drinking water quality

Society.     

Predictive microbiology: providing a knowledge-based framework for change management

This contribution considers predictive microbiology in the context of the Food Micro 2002 theme, "Microbial adaptation to changing environments". To provide a reference point, the state of food microbiology knowledge in the mid-1970s is selected and from that time, the impact of social and demographic changes on microbial food safety is traced. A short chronology of the history of predictive microbiology provides context to discuss its relation to and interactions with hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) and risk assessment. The need to take account of the implications of microbial adaptability and variable population responses is couched in terms of the dichotomy between classical versus quantal microbiology introduced by Bridson and Gould [Lett. Appl. Microbiol. 30 (2000) 95]. The role of population response patterns and models as guides to underlying physiological processes draws attention to the value of predictive models in development of novel methods of food preservation. It also draws attention to the paradox facing today's food industry that is required to balance the "clean, green" aspirations of consumers with the risk, to safety or shelf life, of removing traditional barriers to microbial development. This part of the discussion is dominated by consideration of models and responses that lead to stasis and inactivation of microbial populations. This highlights the consequence of change on predictive modelling where the need is now to develop interface and non-thermal death models to deal with pathogens that have low infective doses for general and/or susceptible populations in the context of minimal preservation treatments. The challenge is to demonstrate the validity of such models and to develop applications of benefit to the food industry and consumers as was achieved with growth models to predict shelf life and the hygienic equivalence of food processing operations.     

Biotic ligand model, a flexible tool for developing site-specific water quality guidelines for metals

The biotic ligand model (BLM) is a mechanistic approach that greatly improves our ability to generate site-specific ambient water quality criteria (AWQC)for metals in the natural environment relative to conventional relationships based only on hardness. The model is flexible; all aspects of water chemistry that affect toxicity can be included, so the BLM integrates the concept of bioavailability into AWQC--in essence the computational equivalent of water effect ratio (WER) testing. The theory of the BLM evolved from the gill surface interaction model (GSIM) and the free ion activity model (FIAM). Using an equilibrium geochemical modeling framework, the BLM incorporates the competition of the free metal ion with other naturally occurring cations (e.g., Ca2+, Na+, Mg2-, H+), togetherwith complexation by abiotic ligands [e.g., DOM (dissolved organic matter), chloride, carbonates, sulfide] for binding with the biotic ligand, the site of toxic action on the organism. On the basis of fish gill research, the biotic ligands appear to be active ion uptake pathways (e.g., Na+ transporters for copper and silver, Ca2+ transporters for zinc, cadmium, lead, and cobalt), whose geochemical characteristics (affinity = log K, capacity = Bmax) can be quantified in short-term (3-24 h) in vivo gill binding tests. In general, the greater the toxicity of a particular metal, the higher the log K. The BLM quantitatively relates short-term binding to acute toxicity, with the LA50 (lethal accumulation) being predictive of the LC50 (generally 96 h for fish, 48 h for daphnids). We critically evaluate currently available BLMs for copper, silver, zinc, and nickel and gill binding approaches for cadmium, lead, and cobalt on which BLMs could be based. Most BLMs originate from tests with fish and have been recalibrated for more sensitive daphnids by adjustment of LA50 so as to fit the results of toxicity testing. Issues of concern include the arbitrary nature of LA50 adjustments; possible mechanistic differences between daphnids and fish that may alter log K values, particularly for hardness cations (Ca2+, Mg2+); assumption of fixed biotic ligand characteristics in the face of evidence that they may change in response to acclimation and diet; difficulties in dealing with DOM and incorporating its heterogeneity into the modeling framework; and the paucity of validation exercises on natural water data sets. Important needs include characterization of biotic ligand properties at the molecular level; development of in vitro BLMs, extension of the BLM approach to a wider range of organisms, to the estuarine and marine environment, and to deal with metal mixtures; and further development of BLM frameworks to predict chronic toxicity and thereby generate chronic AWQC.     

Locating sources of surf zone pollution: a mass budget analysis of fecal indicator bacteria at Huntington Beach, California

The surf zone is the unique environment where ocean meets land and a place of critical ecological, economic, and recreational importance. In the United States, this natural resource is increasingly off-limits to the public due to elevated concentrations of fecal indicator bacteria and other contaminants, the sources of which are often unknown. In this paper, we describe an approach for calculating mass budgets of pollutants in the surf zone from shoreline monitoring data. The analysis reveals that fecal indicator bacteria pollution in the surf zone at several contiguous beaches in Orange County, California, originates from well-defined locations along the shore, including the tidal outlets of the Santa Ana River and Talbert Marsh. Fecal pollution flows into the ocean from the Santa Ana River and Talbert Marsh outlets during ebb tides and from there is transported parallel to the shoreline by wave-driven surf zone currents and/or offshore tidal currents, frequently contaminating >5 km of the surf zone. The methodology developed here for locating and quantifying sources of surf zone pollution should be applicable to a wide array of contaminants and coastal settings.     

Accuracy of direct and indirect methods for assessing bovine colostrum quality using a latent class model fit within a Bayesian framework

Feeding high-quality colostrum is essential for calf health and future productivity. Therefore, accurate assessment of colostrum quality is a key component of dairy farm management plans. Direct and indirect methods are available for assessment of colostrum quality; however, the indirect methods are rapid, inexpensive, and can be performed under field settings. A hierarchical latent class model fit within a Bayesian framework was used to estimate the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of the radial immunodiffusion (RID) assay, transmission infrared (TIR) spectroscopy, and digital Brix refractometer for the assessment of low-quality bovine colostrum in Atlantic Canada dairy herds. The secondary objective of the study was to describe the distribution of herd prevalence of low-quality colostrum. Colostrum quality of 591 samples from 42 commercial Holstein dairy herds in 4 Atlantic Canada provinces was assessed using RID, TIR spectroscopy, and digital Brix refractometer. The accuracy of all tests at different Brix value thresholds was estimated using Bayesian latent class models to obtain posterior estimates [medians and 95% Bayesian credibility intervals (95% BCI)] for each parameter. Using a threshold of <23% for digital Brix refractometer and <50 g/L for RID and TIR spectroscopy, median (95% BCI) Se estimates were 73.2 (68.4–77.7), 86.2 (80.6–91.0), and 91.9% (89.0–94.2), respectively. Median (95% BCI) Sp estimates were 85.2% (81.0–88.9) for digital Brix refractometer, 99.4% (97.0–100) for RID, and 90.7% (87.8–93.2) for TIR spectroscopy. Median (95% BCI) within-herd low-quality colostrum prevalence was estimated at 32.5% (27.9–37.4). In conclusion, using digital Brix refractometer at a Brix threshold of <23% could reduce feeding of low-quality colostrum to calves and improve colostrum and calf management practices in Atlantic Canada dairy herds. The TIR spectroscopy showed high Se in detection of low-quality colostrum. However, the RID assay, which is used as the reference test in several studies, showed limited Se for detection of low-quality colostrum.     

一类时滞微分方程非局部共振问题解的存在性

研究了一类具有时滞的p-Laplacian方程非局部共振边值问题,利用推广的Mawhin连续性定理在允许非线性项非线性增长的条件下证明了该边值问题解的存在性,得到了一些新的结果.