How Can Our Tweets Go Viral? Point-Process Modelling of Brand Content

People create and share content via online social networks, which provide an unparalleled opportunity for brands to gain visibility, promote products or services and drive revenue growth. Much research has focused on why, how, or what social content is popular, trending and “hype”. One central challenge is to forecast the spread (cascades) of information that leads to the popularity of content throughout a social network. Online content tends to have bursts and spikes, experiencing a different cascading pattern depending on the viral propagation. In this paper, we propose and test a flexible framework capable of modelling such patterns and trends. We take temporal and network perspectives and develop a model based on the multivariate Hawkes processes that account for social behaviour and network elements such as follower counts, and activity variation observed in collective re-sharing behaviour. We focus on Twitter as the most widely used micro-blogging online social network and measure the popularity of a brand's tweet by analysing the time-series path of three types of subsequent activities (retweets (RTs), replies (REs) and likes (LKs)). The specific model that we propose in this paper is the multidimensional epidemic-type aftershock sequence (METAS) model, a particular case of the multivariate Hawkes process. It consists of a power-law relaxation governing the timing of activities. It also includes an exponential boost as a reinforcement mechanism for the response amplitude to model the impact of influential users on their followers. Earlier attempts to model online cascades have treated all online responses as one type of activity. Rather than aggregating all the activities into one stream, and therefore, ignoring exciting effects among different types of activities, we incorporate the activity variation into the predictive models of content popularity, explicitly accounting for such excitation effects. We develop epidemic-type mutually exciting Hawkes point processes models to quantify such effects and to predict more accurately the number of follow-up activities (i.e., RTs, REs and LKs) on a brand tweet after it is posted. Our results suggest that the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art models in terms of prediction accuracy, as it is able to account for mutual excitations and cross-interactions between sequences of users’ activities from one type to another. These results are relevant for developing and executing a plan for online activities by the brand owners.     

Office automation — Can it be justified?

The use of office automation has increased in recent years. However, its implementation has not taken place as quickly as was originally anticipated. Suppliers have faced cutbacks in demand and users have remained unconvinced by the advantages. This paper outlines the results of an NCC subscriber survey into the justification, monitoring and use of office automation. Areas such as text processing word processing, personal communications, information access and personal computing are discussed.     

Computerized working memory training: Can it lead to gains in cognitive skills in students?

Given that working memory is an important cognitive skill that is linked to academic success, there is increasing attention given to exploring ways to support working memory problems in struggling students. One promising approach is computerized training, and the aim of the present study focused on whether computerized working memory training could result in both near and far transfer training effects; and whether such effects would be maintained over time. Students were allocated into one of three groups: Nonactive Control, Active Control, where they trained once a week (WMT-Low frequency); Training group, where they trained four times a week (WMT-High frequency). All three groups were tested on measures of working memory, verbal and nonverbal ability, and academic attainment before training; and re-tested on the same measures after training, as well as 8 months later. The data indicate gains in both verbal and visuo-spatial working memory tasks for the high-frequency Training group. Improvements were also evidenced in tests of verbal and nonverbal ability tests, as well as spelling, in the high-frequency Training group. There were some maintenance effects when students were tested 8 months later. Possible reasons for why the computerized working memory training led to some far transfer effects in the high-frequency Training group are included in the discussion.     

Presence: Is it just pretending?

Our sense of presence in the real world helps regulate our behaviour within it by telling us about the status and effectiveness of our actions. As such, this ability offers us practical advantages in dealing effectively with the world. It is also an automatic or intuitive response to where and how we find ourselves in that it does not require conscious thought or deliberation. In contrast, the experience of presence or immersion in a movie, game or virtual environment is not automatic but is the product of our deliberate engagement with it, an engagement which first requires a disengagement or decoupling with the real world. Of course, we regularly decouple from the real world and embrace other, possible worlds every time we daydream, or engage in creative problem solving or, most importantly, for the purposes of this discussion, when we make-believe. We propose that make-believe is a plausible psychological mechanism which underpins the experience of mediated presence.     

Can you hear it? Stereo sound-assisted guidance in augmented reality assembly

Virtual Reality - Most augmented reality (AR) assembly guidance systems only utilize visual information. Regarding the sound, the human binaural effect helps users quickly identify the general...     

Matching physical work demands with functional capacity in healthy workers: Can it be more efficient?

Objectives

To determine if functional capacity (FC) and physical work demands can be matched and to determine the validity of normative values for FC related to physical work demands as a screening instrument for work ability.

Methods

Forty healthy working subjects were included in this study. Subjects were categorized into four physical work demand categories (sedentary, light, moderate and heavy). FC was tested with a standardized Functional Capacity Evaluation (FCE) following the WorkWell Protocol and physical work demands were determined with an onsite Work Load Assessment (WLA) according to the Task Recording and Analyses on Computer (TRAC) method. Physical work demands were compared to FC and normative values derived from previous research.

Results

88% of the subjects scored higher on FCE than observed during WLA. The tenth percentile of normative values appeared valid in 98% for sedentary/light work for the subjects tested in this study. For moderate or heavy work, the thirtieth percentile of normative values appeared valid in 78% of all cases.

Conclusion

Functional capacity and physical work demands can be matched in most instances, but exceptions should be kept in mind with regards to professions classified as moderate or heavy physical work, especially concerning lifting high. Normative values may be considered as an additional screening tool for balancing workload and capacity. It is recommended to further validate normative values in a broader and more extensive working population.     

Information Resource Management: Is it sensible and can it work?

Information Resource Management, or IRM, is founded on the assumptions that organizations are systems amenable to systematic control, and that information is a resource that can be managed in economically efficient ways. The management techniques embodied under the IRM rubric are said to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of information management in organizations. These assumptions are questioned. Systems approaches to organizations have proven inadequate in most instances where they have been tried, and there is little reason to believe the IRM approach will be different. Information is not a resource in the conventional sense of the term, and economic techniques for dealing with information as a resource are lacking. Implementation of IRM suffers from ambiguities about what it is supposed to accomplish, the breadth of its intentions, and the practical constraints of implementing top-down reforms in complex organizations. The broad vision of IRM is useful for articulating goals for information management, but the efficacy of IRM as an organizing framework for actual management of information practices is limited.     

Online identity: Giving it all away?

With a wealth of personal data now residing across various locations online, individuals can find themselves at increasing risk of too much information being exposed. This in turn may increase the potential for threats such as cyber-snooping, social engineering, and identity theft based upon the gathered details. In many cases the exposure occurs as a result of what individuals directly post about themselves on social networks and blog sites, whereas in some cases it happens thanks to other people posting things beyond their control. This paper examines the potential risks and some of the routes by which information might be harvested. It then proceeds to consider some of the potential consequences, presenting examples of how people can be duped using freely available information and how willingly they appear to expose it to others. Recognising the ease of online search, and the difficulty of reigning back information once it is exposed, the requirement is clearly to improve user awareness and control over their data in the first instance.     

Nanofluidics: what is it and what can we expect from it?

Starting from the background of nanofluidics in other disciplines, this paper describes the present state of research in this field and discusses possible directions of development. Emphasis is put on the very diverse background of nanofluidics in biology, chemistry, physics and engineering and the valuable knowledge available in these disciplines. First, the forces that play a role on the nanoscale are discussed and then a summary is given of some different theoretical treatments. Subsequently, an overview is given of the different phenomena occurring on the nanoscale and their present applications. Finally, some possible future applications are discussed.     

Ethical Foresight Analysis: What it is and Why it is Needed?

Minds and Machines - An increasing number of technology firms are implementing processes to identify and evaluate the ethical risks of their systems and products. A key part of these review...     

Organization Security Metrics: Can Organizations Protect Themselves?

ABSTRACT

Organizations normally do not possess a way to communicate those needs back to the rest of an organization. This paper demonstrates that organizations are vigilant to activity within their environment, so this research project will focus on process improvement to better organizations through internal processes. Prior to this project, Company X was unable to communicate and address threats to their organization. Prior to this project, each employee was not trained on security. However, each employee understood the norms and values of company processes on an individual level. Each employee was able to contribute details of security issues as they perceived them to make a comprehensive security model. This Security Working Group (SWG) project describes the steps necessary to create a self-educating, self-perpetuating process that spurns co-generative learning among an entire organization. Security training prepared each employee to be more attentive to risks to potential security issues. The result of this research proves that employees can detect threats in an organization with relatively little training.     

胡一郎的故事:IBM?forget it!

1999年12月31日的晚上,胡一郎站在西单电报大楼下面的寒风里,等待新世纪的钟声。胡一郎不曾意识到的是,伴随着2000年的第一声钟鸣,空气中开始弥漫起一股特殊的气息。这股特殊的气息在2000年的春天里,在一阵又一阵“西”风的吹动下,越来越浓、越来越呛,从胡一郎的鼻孔、耳朵、眼睛里钻进来,浸淫着胡一郎的头脑、身体。 5个月之后,确切地说,4个月24天16小