Using speeding detections and numbers of fatalities to estimate relative risk of a fatality for motorcyclists and car drivers

Precise estimation of the relative risk of motorcyclists being involved in a fatal accident compared to car drivers is difficult. Simple estimates based on the proportions of licenced drivers or riders that are killed in a fatal accident are biased as they do not take into account the exposure to risk. However, exposure is difficult to quantify. Here we adapt the ideas behind the well known induced exposure methods and use available summary data on speeding detections and fatalities for motorcycle riders and car drivers to estimate the relative risk of a fatality for motorcyclists compared to car drivers under mild assumptions. The method is applied to data on motorcycle riders and car drivers in Victoria, Australia in 2010 and a small simulation study is conducted.     

Risk factors for fatal road traffic accidents in Udine, Italy.

In the Province of Udine, Northeast Italy, mortality from road accidents is 37% higher than in the country as a whole. To identify the major risk factors for fatal crashes in this area, we analyzed the Police reports of 10,320 road traffic accidents that occurred from 1991 to 1996. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of characteristics of drivers and accidents with accident severity. The risk of involvement in fatal rather than non-fatal accidents was lower among females than among males (odds ratio (OR) = 0.65; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.53-0.80). Compared with subjects < 30 years of age, subjects aged > or = 65 had a significantly increased risk of fatal injury as pedestrians (OR = 10.87; 95% CI, 4.45-26.54), car drivers (OR = 1.85; 95% CI, 1.08-3.18), moped riders (OR = 3.53; 95% CI, 1.42-8.78), and bicycle riders (OR = 7.72; 95% CI, 2.56-23.29). In accidents that occurred from 1:00 to 5:00 h the risk of death was higher than from 6:00 to 11:00 h among pedestrians (OR = 8.88; 95% CI, 2.58-30.52), car drivers (OR = 4.95; 95% CI, 3.09-7.95), motorcycle riders (OR = 13.44; 95%CI, 2.54-71.05) and moped riders (OR = 8.76; 95% CI, 2.42-31.69). Risk of death among pedestrians, car drivers, moped, and bicycle riders was also significantly increased on roads outside the urban center. Driver's injury was strongly associated with lack of use of seat belts (OR = 13.27; 95% CI, 9.39-18.74, for fatal injury; OR = 2.49; 95% CI, 2.17-2.86, for non-fatal injury). Simple interventions focused on protecting the weakest road users and based on law enforcement, behavioral change and environmental modification might result in reducing the significant excess of road traffic accident mortality found in the study area.     

Prevalence of alcohol and drugs among motorcycle riders killed in road crashes in Norway during 2001–2010

The aim of the study was to examine the prevalence of alcohol and drugs in blood samples from motorcycle riders who died in road crashes in Norway from 2001 to 2010. An additional aim was to compare the prevalence of alcohol and drugs in blood samples from fatally injured motorcycle riders and car drivers who died during the same time period.     

The prevalence of alcohol, cannabinoids, benzodiazepines and stimulants amongst injured drivers and their role in driver culpability: part i: the prevalence of drug use in drive the drug-positive group

Blood samples from 2,500 injured drivers were analysed for alcohol, cannabinnoids, benzodiazepines and stimulants. Overall, three-quarters of drivers tested negative for drugs. Alcohol was the most frequently detected drug. Cannabinoids were also detected at high rates, but the majority of drivers tested positive for THC-acid, the inactive metabolite of THC. Benzodiazepines and stimulants were detected at low rates, and detection rates for combinations of drugs were also low. Males were more likely to test positive for drugs, especially alcohol and THC, whereas females were more likely to test positive for benzodiazepines. A similar proportion of car drivers and motorcycle riders tested positive for drugs, although riders were more likely to test positive for THC. Single-vehicle crashes were particularly associated with alcohol for both car driver and riders, and for riders, multiple-vehicle crashes were particularly associated with THC.     

The prevalence of alcohol, cannabinoids, benzodiazepines and stimulants amongst injured drivers and their role in driver culpability: part ii: the relationship between drug prevalence and drug concentration, and driver culpability

Blood samples from 2,500 injured drivers were analysed for alcohol, cannabinoids (measured by the presence of THC), benzodiazepines and stimulants. The relationship between the prevalence and concentration of drugs and the culpability of the driver was examined using an objective method for assessing culpability. There were no significant differences between males and females with respect to culpability. However, there was a relationship between age and culpability: drivers under 26 years and over 60 years were more likely to be culpable. Drivers who tested positive for alcohol only, benzodiazepines only and the combinations of alcohol and THC and alcohol and benzodiazepines were significantly more likely to be culpable for the crash compared with the drug-free group. Conversely, a lower percentage of drivers who only tested positive for THC were culpable for the crash compared with drug-free drivers. This difference was not statistically significant. For car drivers in single-vehicle crashes, the majority of drivers were judged culpable irrespective of drug use. In multiple-vehicle crashes, car drivers testing positive for alcohol only or benzodiazepines only were more likely to be culpable for the crash compared with drug-free drivers. For motorcycle riders in both single- and multiple-vehicle crashes, there were no significant differences between the drug-positive and drug-free groups. A higher percentage of drug-free riders in multiple-vehicle crashes were culpable compared with riders who only tested positive for THC, but this difference was not statistically significant. There was a significant concentration-dependent relationship between alcohol and culpability: as blood alcohol concentration increased, so did the percentage of culpable drivers. When THC was used alone, there was no significant increase in culpability. For those drivers with benzodiazepines at therapeutic concentrations and above, there was a significant increase in culpability. The relationship between stimulants and culpability was not significant, although a higher proportion of stimulant-positive drivers were culpable compared with drug-free drivers. The combinations of alcohol and THC, and alcohol and benzodiazepines also produced a significant increase in culpability, but this increase was not significantly greater than that produced by alcohol alone.     

Judgments of approach speed for motorcycles across different lighting levels and the effect of an improved tri-headlight configuration

The misperception of vehicle approach speed is a key contributory factor to road traffic crash involvement. Past research has indicated that individuals use the rate of visual looming to calculate the time to passage (TTP) of a vehicle, and that smaller vehicles loom to a lesser extent than larger vehicles. Despite a disproportionate number of fatal injuries occurring on the road after dark, and a higher than average number of accidents involving automobile drivers violating the right of way of a motorcyclist occurring in low light conditions, there has been very little consideration of the accuracy of TTP for smaller and larger vehicles under low levels of luminance. We investigated drivers’ judgments of motorcycle and car approach speeds across a number of levels of luminance within a virtual city scene, as well as the effectiveness of a tri-headlight formation on motorcycle speed judgments. The accuracy of car approach speed judgments were not affected by changes in lighting conditions, but speed judgments for the solo headlight motorcycle became significantly less accurate as lighting reduced in the early night and night-time conditions. Incorporation of a tri-headlight formation onto the standard motorcycle frame resulted in improved accuracy of approach speed judgments, relative to the solo headlight motorcycle, as ambient light levels reduced. The practical implications of the findings are discussed in terms of road safety and motorcycle design.     

The visual search patterns and hazard responses of experienced and inexperienced motorcycle riders

Hazard perception is a critical skill for road users. In this study, an open-loop motorcycle simulator was used to examine the effects of motorcycle riding and car driving experience on hazard perception and visual scanning patterns. Three groups of participants were tested: experienced motorcycle riders who were experienced drivers (EM-ED), inexperienced riders/experienced drivers (IM-ED), and inexperienced riders/inexperienced drivers (IM-ID). Participants were asked to search for hazards in simulated scenarios, and click a response button when a hazard was identified. The results revealed a significant monotonic decrease in hazard response times as experience increased from IM-ID to IM-ED to EM-ED. Compared to the IM-ID group, both the EM-ED and IM-ED groups exhibited more flexible visual scanning patterns that were sensitive to the presence of hazards. These results point to the potential benefit of training hazard perception and visual scanning in motorcycle riders, as has been successfully demonstrated in previous studies with car drivers.     

Motorcycle riders' perception of helmet use: complaints and dissatisfaction

In accidents which involve two-wheeled vehicles the helmet plays a life-saving role, but very little is known about the motorcycle rider's perception of the helmet. We evaluated the relationships between having been involved in an accident and dissatisfaction with the helmet, and between the perception of motorcycle riders and the objective features of the helmet. This was a case-control study: riders of motorized two-wheelers who had been involved in accidents (accident cases) were compared against a similarly interviewed sample of riders that had not been in accidents (control cases). Information about the driver, the vehicle and the helmet was collected in all interviews. To evaluate the relationships, logistic regressions were carried out. The majority of drivers were dissatisfied with their helmets, but no evidence was found to link this dissatisfaction with having been involved in an accident. The two most common complaints related to noisiness, followed by the helmet visor. Complaints did not seem to be statistically associated with physical features of the helmet.     

Effects of alcohol impairment on motorcycle riding skills

Alcohol intoxication is a significant risk factor for fatal traffic crashes; however, there is sparse research on the impairing effects of alcohol on skills involved in motorcycle control. Twenty-four male motorcycle riders between the ages of 21 and 50 were assessed on a test track with task scenarios based on the Motorcycle Safety Foundation's (MSF) training program. A balanced incomplete block design was used to remove confounding artifacts (learning effects) by randomizing four BAC levels across three test days. In general, intoxicated riders demonstrated longer response times and adopted larger tolerances leading to more task performance errors. Most of the alcohol effects were evident at the per se 0.08% alcohol level, but some of the effects were observed at the lower 0.05% alcohol level. The effects of alcohol on motorcycle control and rider behavior were modest and occurred when task demand was high (offset weave), time pressure was high (hazard avoidance for near obstacles), and tolerances were constrained (circuit track). The modest effects may be due to the study design, in which experienced riders performed highly practiced, low-speed tasks; alcohol at these levels may produce larger effects with less experienced riders in more challenging situations.     

Issues in motorcycle sensory and cognitive conspicuity: The impact of motorcycle low-beam headlights and riding experience on drivers’ decisions to turn across the path of a motorcycle

Background

Crashes involving a passenger car and a motorcycle, where the car is turning across the path of the motorcycle, are a major crash type of motorcycle riders. It has been proposed that the incidence of such crashes could be reduced through improvements in motorcycle conspicuity. Operation of low-beam headlights on motorcycles has been discussed as one approach for improving the “sensory conspicuity” of motorcycles during daylight hours, whilst previous experience as a rider may serve to heighten “cognitive conspicuity” through raised awareness of motorcyclists on our roads.

Method

Twenty-three experienced car drivers with no riding experience (“drivers”) and 20 experienced car drivers who were also motorcycle riders (“driver–riders”) completed a series of trials in a driving simulator where their task in each trial was to turn ahead of an oncoming vehicle if they felt that they had sufficient room to do so safely. A key manipulation across trials was whether the oncoming vehicle was a motorcycle with headlights on, or a motorcycle with headlights off. Time gap (short, medium, long) was also manipulated.

Results

Results indicate that, at time gaps defined in the current study as short, low-beam headlights may confer some benefit in gap acceptance by encouraging drivers to accept fewer gaps ahead of a motorcycle with headlights on than ahead of a motorcycle with headlights off. No statistically significant differences in gap acceptance between the headlight conditions were found at either the medium or long time gaps. Irrespective of time gap, driver–riders were found to adopt a more efficient turn strategy than drivers with no direct riding experience.

Conclusions

Overall, the present research provides support for the use of low-beam headlights and riding experience as tools through which to augment the sensory and cognitive conspicuity of motorcycles, respectively. It is proposed that further research aim to explore directly the precise mechanisms underlying the observed effects.     

The role of alcohol in Thailand motorcycle crashes

In order to identify motorcycle accident cause factors and countermeasures in Thailand, a large prospective study was undertaken. Researchers conducted on-scene, in-depth investigation and reconstruction of 969 collisions involving 1082 motorcycle riders. Accidents were randomly sampled and included all levels of injury severity. Alcohol proved to be the most outstanding cause factor, with 393 drinking riders in crashes. Alcohol accidents were distinctly different from non-alcohol crashes. Alcohol accidents were more frequent on weekends and particularly at night, usually when the rider was on his way home. Drinking riders were more likely to lose control of the motorcycle, usually by running off the road. They were more likely to be in a single vehicle accident, to violate traffic control signals, and to be in non-intersection collisions. Males were far more likely to drink and ride than females. Drinking riders were far more likely to be inattentive to the driving task just before they crashed, and to be the primary or sole cause of the accident. One-fourth of all riders did not go to the hospital, and another 42% needed only treatment in the emergency room. Drinking riders were more likely to be hospitalized and far more likely to be killed. The higher hospitalization and fatality rates of drinking riders resulted from the kinds of accidents in which they were involved, not from the minimal differences in speeds and helmet use. Problems with balance and coordination were about equally rare among drinking and non-drinking riders. Inattention was a far greater contributing factor.     

A review of risk factors and patterns of motorcycle injuries

Per vehicle mile traveled, motorcycle riders have a 34-fold higher risk of death in a crash than people driving other types of motor vehicles. While lower-extremity injuries most commonly occur in all motorcycle crashes, head injuries are most frequent in fatal crashes. Helmets and helmet use laws have been shown to be effective in reducing head injuries and deaths from motorcycle crashes. Alcohol is the major contributing factor to fatal crashes. Enforcement of legal limits on the blood alcohol concentration is effective in reducing motorcycle deaths, while some alcohol-related interventions such as a minimal legal drinking age, increased alcohol excise taxes, and responsible beverage service specifically for motorcycle riders have not been examined. Other modifiable protective or risk factors comprise inexperience and driver training, conspicuity and daytime headlight laws, motorcycle licensure and ownership, riding speed, and risk-taking behaviors. Features of motorcycle use and potentially effective prevention programs for motorcycle crash injuries in developing countries are discussed. Finally, recommendations for future motorcycle-injury research are made.     

Drugs related to motor vehicle crashes in northern European countries: A study of fatally injured drivers

The aim of this study was to find which drugs and drug combinations were most common in drivers who died, in particular, in single vehicle crashes where the responsibility for the crash would be referred to the driver killed. The study included all available blood samples from drivers, who died within 24 h of the accident, in the years 2001 and 2002 in the five Nordic countries (total population about 24 million inhabitants). The samples were analysed for more than 200 different drugs in addition to alcohol, using a similar analytical programme and cut-off limits in all countries. In three countries (Finland, Norway and Sweden) blood samples were available for more than 70% of the drivers, allowing representative prevalence data to be collected. 60% of the drivers in single vehicle crashes had alcohol and/or drug in their blood samples, compared with 30% of drivers killed in collisions with other vehicles. In single vehicle accidents, 66% of the drivers under 30 years of age had alcohol and/or drugs in their blood (alcohol only – 40%; drugs only – 12%; alcohol and drugs – 14%). The drugs found were mostly illicit drugs and psychoactive medicinal drugs with warning labels (in 57% and 58% respectively of the drivers under 30 with drugs present). Similar findings were obtained for drivers 30–49 years of age (63% with alcohol and/or drugs). In drivers aged 50 years and above, killed in single vehicle crashes (48% with alcohol and/or drugs) illicit drugs were found in only one case, and psychoactive medicinal drugs were detected less frequently than in younger age groups. In 75% of single vehicle crashes, the driver was under 50 years. Thus, the majority of accidents where the drivers must be considered responsible, occurred with drivers who had recently used alcohol, or drugs, alone or in combination. The drugs involved were often illicit and/or psychoactive drugs with warning labels. Therefore a large proportion of single vehicle accidents appear to be preventable, if more effective measures against driving after intake of alcohol and drugs can be implemented.     

Drugs related to motor vehicle crashes in northern European countries: a study of fatally injured drivers

The aim of this study was to find which drugs and drug combinations were most common in drivers who died, in particular, in single vehicle crashes where the responsibility for the crash would be referred to the driver killed. The study included all available blood samples from drivers, who died within 24 h of the accident, in the years 2001 and 2002 in the five Nordic countries (total population about 24 million inhabitants). The samples were analysed for more than 200 different drugs in addition to alcohol, using a similar analytical programme and cut-off limits in all countries. In three countries (Finland, Norway and Sweden) blood samples were available for more than 70% of the drivers, allowing representative prevalence data to be collected. 60% of the drivers in single vehicle crashes had alcohol and/or drug in their blood samples, compared with 30% of drivers killed in collisions with other vehicles. In single vehicle accidents, 66% of the drivers under 30 years of age had alcohol and/or drugs in their blood (alcohol only – 40%; drugs only – 12%; alcohol and drugs – 14%). The drugs found were mostly illicit drugs and psychoactive medicinal drugs with warning labels (in 57% and 58% respectively of the drivers under 30 with drugs present). Similar findings were obtained for drivers 30–49 years of age (63% with alcohol and/or drugs). In drivers aged 50 years and above, killed in single vehicle crashes (48% with alcohol and/or drugs) illicit drugs were found in only one case, and psychoactive medicinal drugs were detected less frequently than in younger age groups. In 75% of single vehicle crashes, the driver was under 50 years. Thus, the majority of accidents where the drivers must be considered responsible, occurred with drivers who had recently used alcohol, or drugs, alone or in combination. The drugs involved were often illicit and/or psychoactive drugs with warning labels. Therefore a large proportion of single vehicle accidents appear to be preventable, if more effective measures against driving after intake of alcohol and drugs can be implemented.     

Risk factors for injury accidents among moped and motorcycle riders

Objective

To study and quantify the effect of factors related to the riders of powered two-wheelers on the risk of injury accident involvement.

Methodology

Based on national data held by the police from 1996 to 2005, we conducted a case–control study with responsibility for the accident as the event of interest. We estimated the odds ratios for accident responsibility. Making the hypothesis that the non-responsible riders in the study are representative of all the riders on the road, we thus identified risk factors for being responsible for injury accidents. The studied factors are age, gender, helmet wearing, alcohol consumption, validity of the subject's driving licence and for how long it has been held, the trip purpose and the presence of a passenger on the vehicle. Moped and motorcycle riders are analyzed separately, adjusting for the main characteristics of the accident.

Results

For both moped and motorcycle riders, being male, not wearing a helmet, exceeding the legal limit for alcohol and travelling for leisure purposes increased the risk of accident involvement. The youngest and oldest users had a greater risk of accident involvement. The largest risk factor was alcohol, and we identified a dose–effect relationship between alcohol consumption and accident risk, with an estimated odds ratio of over 10 for motorcycle and moped riders with a BAC of 2 g/l or over. Among motorcycle users, riders without a licence had twice the risk of being involved in an accident than those holding a valid licence. However, the number of years the rider had held a licence reduced the risk of accident involvement. One difference between moped and motorcycle riders involved the presence of a passenger on the vehicle: while carrying a passenger increased the risk of being responsible for the accident among moped riders, it protected against this risk among motorcycle riders.

Conclusion

This analysis of responsibility has identified the major factors contributing to excess risk of injury accidents, some of which could be targeted by prevention programmes.     

A study of reported injury accidents among novice motorcycle riders in a Scottish region

A study is reported of the effect of sex, age, cubic capacity, and training on the rate of reported injury accidents in a cohort of 304 first time learner motorcycle riders resident in the Lothian and Borders of Scotland in 1983. Motorcycle in this paper includes all types of registerable two wheeled motor vehicle. Injury accidents as reported by the police were observed in this cohort over an average period of one year. The overall reported injury accident rate within the cohort was 8.2 per hundred riders. This rate does not seem to be markedly different to the Scottish rate for all riders. It was found that the cubic capacity of the motorcycle was the single most important risk factor of the four studied. The risk was disproportionately high in the 200+ cc category. Lower reported injury accident rates were observed for females and trained riders but these differences did not reach statistical significance mainly due to the low numbers of these two categories within the cohort. Contrary to popular assumption, younger riders within this cohort did not have higher injury accidents. A large proportion of the riders who had been involved in injury accidents within the cohort and who had registered 50 cc motorcycles were found to be riding higher capacity (mainly 200+ cc) motorcycles at the time of accident. There was a very low uptake of motorcycle training (7.3%) by the cohort. Approximately 15% of the cohort was female, a higher percentage than those reported by other studies.     

Severity of motorcycle crashes in Calgary

Motorcycle riders would be more vulnerable in the event of a crash because of their lack of protection which would often result in them suffering more severe injuries than car drivers. This paper estimated three crash severity models to identify factors that contributed to increasing the severity of motorcycle involved crashes in the Canadian City of Calgary. We found that results from the ordered logit model, heterogeneous choice model and partially constrained generalized ordered logit model produced estimates that were very similar which attested to their robustness. Injury severity tended to increase in neighborhoods with loops and lollipops types of streets or involved right-angle and left-turn-across-path crashes, a truck, unsafe speed or alcohol use but tended to decrease if the crash occurred in parking lots or during winter, involved a van or male rider, or a rider following-too-closely to the vehicle in front.     

Further aspects of the British index of secondary car safety

This paper develops earlier research into statistical methods for comparing the secondary safety of car models. Two papers (Broughton 1996a,b, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 28, pp. 89–99, and pp. 101–109, respectively) had concluded that the most satisfactory index of secondary safety is the one first used in publications of the U.K. Department of Transport, referred to as the British or DoT index. This paper shows that the distribution of the risk of injury when two cars collide depends principally on the difference in mass; as this rises, the driver of the lighter car is more likely to be injured and the driver of the heavier car is less likely to be injured, while the likelihood of both being injured reduces slightly. It also shows that the level of protection in fatal and serious accidents varies between models to a significantly greater extent than the level in all injury accidents. Car models of similar mass can provide significantly different levels of protection to their occupants, so there would be fewer casualties if all models were to provide the same level of protection as the most successful current designs. It is estimated that if the safety of all models were improved to the level achieved or exceeded by the safest twentieth of models then the number of drivers injured in two-car accidents would fall by 12% and the number killed or seriously injured by 22%.     

A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders

Hazard perception is the ability to read the road and is closely related to involvement in traffic accidents. It consists of both cognitive and behavioral components. Within the cognitive component, visual attention is an important function of driving whereas driving behavior, which represents the behavioral component, can affect the hazard perception of the driver. Motorcycle riders are the most vulnerable types of road user. The primary purpose of this study was to deepen our understanding of the correlation of different subtypes of visual attention and driving violation behaviors and their effect on hazard perception between accident-free and accident-involved motorcycle riders. Sixty-three accident-free and 46 accident-involved motorcycle riders undertook four neuropsychological tests of attention (Digit Vigilance Test, Color Trails Test-1, Color Trails Test-2, and Symbol Digit Modalities Test), filled out the Chinese Motorcycle Rider Driving Violation (CMRDV) Questionnaire, and viewed a road-user-based hazard situation with an eye-tracking system to record the response latencies to potentially dangerous traffic situations. The results showed that both the divided and selective attention of accident-involved motorcycle riders were significantly inferior to those of accident-free motorcycle riders, and that accident-involved riders exhibited significantly higher driving violation behaviors and took longer to identify hazardous situations compared to their accident-free counterparts. However, the results of the regression analysis showed that aggressive driving violation CMRDV score significantly predicted hazard perception and accident involvement of motorcycle riders. Given that all participants were mature and experienced motorcycle riders, the most plausible explanation for the differences between them is their driving style (influenced by an undesirable driving attitude), rather than skill deficits per se. The present study points to the importance of conceptualizing the influence of different driving behaviors so as to enrich our understanding of the role of human factors in road accidents and consequently develop effective countermeasures to prevent traffic accidents involving motorcycles.     

Effect of lowering the alcohol limit in Denmark

On 1 March 1998, the Danish per se limit was lowered from 0.08 to 0.05% blood alcohol concentration (BAC) for motor vehicle drivers. Based on accident data and drivers' drinking habits before and after the amendment, the effect of the new limit has been evaluated. Interviews revealed a significant decrease in the number of drinks that drivers allow themselves to drink within a 2-h period before driving. The proportion of drivers, who would not drink at all or only have one drink, increased from 71% before the amendment to 80% after the amendment. Drivers with changed drinking habits most often stated the lower limit as the main reason for having less alcohol. However, based on accident data from the first year after the amendment, this has not resulted in a marked decrease in the proportion of injury accidents with impaired motor vehicle drivers (BAC>/=0.05%) compared to all injury accidents. On the contrary, the proportion of fatal accidents with drink-drivers compared to all fatal accidents has increased in the after-period. The total number of drink-driving sentences were a little larger in 1999 than in 1997 because of the lower limit, but a significant change from higher towards lower alcohol levels can be seen.