Dependency on un-captured GDP as a source of resilience beyond economic value in countries with advanced ICT infrastructure: Similarities and disparities between Finland and Singapore

The majority of countries with advanced information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure have been experiencing extended stagnation due to an “embedded” trap in ICT advancement. However, certain countries have been able to sustain a high level of ICT- driven global competitiveness. This suggests that in these contexts there is resilience beyond economic value. Finland and Singapore can be considered countries of resilience with respect to ICT-driven global competitiveness because of their continued GDP growth despite the recession. While both countries share significant similarities including institutional strength in ICT, they demonstrate noteworthy disparities in their development trajectories: Singapore is growth-oriented based on captured GDP while Finland seeks happiness by shifting to un-captured GDP. This contrast can be attributed to their distinct co-evolution with their institutional systems characterized by government/business initiatives in ICT usage for economic efficiency and differences in the new economic index referred to as “happiness seeking”. Given the increasing significance of un-captured GDP derived from the dramatic advancement of the Internet, this paper, will use a comparative analysis of ICT-driven development trajectories in six leading countries in the field over the last two decades. This analysis reveals the different option for maintaining economic resilience. A new method for measuring un-captured GDP was developed to assess the consequences and state of un-captured GDP in six countries. Institutional sources leading to this state were analyzed and a source of resilience beyond economic value was conceptualized and articulated.     

ICT-driven disruptive innovation nurtures un-captured GDP – Harnessing women's potential as untapped resources

The harnessing of untapped resources has become essential for inclusive growth in digital economies particularly as developed economies continue to age demographically. The harnessing of women's potential is an urgent subject in this context, and successive initiatives have been flourishing in many countries.However, given the institutional complexity of the issue, as well as considerable variety across nations, uniformed non-systematic approaches are hardly satisfactory in achieving a timely solution.Against this back drop, this paper analyzed a new information communication technology (ICT)-driven disruptive innovation that may nurture un-captured GDP by harnessing untapped resources such as women's economic potential.Using a unique dataset representing the state of gender balance improvement, an empirical numerical analysis of 44 countries was attempted. These countries were classified as emerging, industrialized, and with a specific culture based particularly on the traditions of a male-dominated society.It was found that while industrialized countries, typically Finland, have achieved high performance in co-evolution between “econo-cultural development,” ICT advancement, and gender balance improvement, emerging countries have been constrained by low ICT advancement. In addition, notwithstanding their high economic level, countries with a specific culture have been constrained by a traditional male-dominated culture, Japan being a typical case.Based on these findings, lessons from industrialized countries for both emerging countries and countries with a specific culture were analyzed.It was suggested that ICT should be strategically advanced depending on the state of what we are calling “econo-cultural development” for constructing co-evolution of gender balance improvement along with techno-economic development.A new practical approach for harnessing untapped resources for sustainable growth was thus explored.     

Integrating resource criticality assessment into evaluation of cleaner production possibilities for increasing resource efficiency

A stable and secure source of raw materials is the key to any successful industrial activity. Resource criticality is often discussed in the context of the impact on the economies of certain geographic regions. However, the availability of required resources first of all concerns the competitiveness of industrial companies, especially in those countries which do not possess abundant natural resources. The Lithuanian economy relies heavily on imports since the country does not have abundant natural resources. The paper introduces resource criticality as an additional dimension for evaluating and prioritizing resource efficiency improvement options. Evaluation of resource criticality was integrated into the methodology for evaluation of Cleaner Production. Simple additive weighting (SAW) was used to solve the multi-criteria decision-making problem. The previous study on the natural resources that are imported to Lithuania revealed that metals are among the most important raw materials in terms of economic importance, supply, and environmental risks. Therefore, a typical metal processing company in Lithuania was selected for the detailed investigation of technological processes and Cleaner Production possibilities. The selected company processes about 3000 tons of various metals per year. The results of Process Material Flow Analysis show that most of the metal waste is generated during the metal plate cutting process (about 30.3 % of total metal consumption). Three resource efficiency improvement alternatives were evaluated and compared. The suggested decision support system was tested in order to decide on a definitive solution. The results reveal that evaluation of resource criticality in terms of geostrategic supply risk and economic importance can be used as an advantageous criterion to support the prioritization of Cleaner Production alternatives.     

The direct and indirect effects of corruption on motor vehicle crash deaths

Recent empirical research has found that there is an inverted U-shaped or Kuznets relationship between income and motor vehicle crash (MVC) deaths, such that MVC deaths increase as national income increases and decrease after reaching a critical level. Corruption has been identified as one of the underlying factors that could affect this relationship, primarily by undermining institutional development and effective enforcement schemes. The total effect of corruption can be decomposed into two components, a direct and an indirect effect. The direct effect measures the immediate impact of corruption on MVC deaths by undermining effective enforcement and regulations, while the indirect effect captures the impact of corruption on hindering increases in per capita income and the consequent impact of reduced income on MVC deaths. By influencing economic growth, corruption can lead to an increase or decrease in MVC deaths depending on the income level. Using data from 60 countries between 1982 and 2003, these effects are estimated using linear panel and fixed effects negative binomial models. The estimation results suggest that corruption has different direct effects for less developed and highly developed countries. It has a negative (decreasing) effect on MVC deaths for less developed countries and a positive (increasing) effect on MVC deaths for highly developed countries. For highly developed countries, the total effect is positive at lower per capita income levels, but decreases with per capita income and becomes negative at per capita income levels of about US$ 38,248. For less developed countries, the total effect is negative within the sample range and decreases with increased per capita income. In summary, the results of this study suggest that reduction of corruption is likely a necessary condition to effectively tackle road safety problems.     

Traffic fatalities and economic growth

This paper examines the relationship between traffic fatality risk and per capita income and uses it to forecast traffic fatalities by geographic region. Equations for the road death rate (fatalities/population) and its components--the rate of motorization (vehicles/population) and fatalities per vehicle (F/V)--are estimated using panel data from 1963 to 1999 for 88 countries. The natural logarithm of F/P, V/P, and F/V are expressed as spline (piecewise linear) functions of the logarithm of real per capita GDP (measured in 1985 international prices). Region-specific time trends during the period 1963-1999 are modeled in linear and log-linear form. These models are used to project traffic fatalities and the stock of motor vehicles to 2020. The per capita income at which traffic fatality risk (fatalities/population) begins to decline is 8600 US dollars (1985 international dollars) when separate time trends are used for each geographic region. This turning point is driven by the rate of decline in fatalities/vehicles as income rises since vehicles/population, while increasing with income at a decreasing rate, never declines with economic growth. Projections of future traffic fatalities suggest that the global road death toll will grow by approximately 66% over the next twenty years. This number, however, reflects divergent rates of change in different parts of the world: a decline in fatalities in high-income countries of approximately 28% versus an increase in fatalities of almost 92% in China and 147% in India. The road death rate is projected to rise to approximately 2 per 10,000 persons in developing countries by 2020, while it will fall to less than 1 per 10,000 in high-income countries.     

Health in financial crises: economic recession and tuberculosis in Central and Eastern Europe

The ongoing global financial crisis, which began in 2007, has drawn attention to the effect of declining economic conditions on public health. A quantitative analysis of previous events can offer insights into the potential health effects of economic decline. In the early 1990s, widespread recession across Central and Eastern Europe accompanied the collapse of the Soviet Union. At the same time, despite previously falling tuberculosis (TB) incidence in most countries, there was an upsurge of TB cases and deaths throughout the region. Here, we study the quantitative relationship between the lost economic productivity and excess TB cases and mortality. We use the data of the World Health Organization for TB notifications and deaths from 1980 to 2006, and World Bank data for gross domestic product. Comparing 15 countries for which sufficient data exist, we find strong linear associations between the lost economic productivity over the period of recession for each country and excess numbers of TB cases (r² = 0.94, p < 0.001) and deaths (r² = 0.94, p < 0.001) over the same period. If TB epidemiology and control are linked to economies in 2009 as they were in 1991 then the Baltic states, particularly Latvia, are now vulnerable to another upturn in TB cases and deaths. These projections are in accordance with emerging data on drug consumption, which indicate that these countries have undergone the greatest reductions since the beginning of 2008. We recommend close surveillance and monitoring during the current recession, especially in the Baltic states.     

Economic performance,environmental concerns,and renewable energy consumption: drivers of renewable energy development in Sub-Sahara Africa

This paper analyzes the drivers of renewable energy development and consumption in Sub-Sahara African countries for the period, 1980–2011. The fully modified ordinary least squares, dynamic ordinary least squares, and fixed-effects estimation techniques are used to evaluate the statistical significance of the determinants of renewable energy consumption. Results indicate that income has the desired positive, albeit statistically insignificant contribution to renewable energy consumption growth. This indicates that recent economic strength in the region has not been accompanied by increased development and consumption of renewable energy, in contrast to empirical evidence in other developing economies. A review of the possible reasons for this incongruence is presented. Also, increased consumption of renewable energy is associated with heightened concerns for climate change caused by pollutants such as carbon dioxide. Population and industrial expansion are statistically significant determinants of renewable consumption, and oil prices correlate negatively with renewable energy consumption.     

Cutting CO2 emissions through demand side regulation: Implications from multi-regional input–output linear programming model

This study combines multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model with linear programming (LP) model to explore economic structure adjustment strategies for the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. A particular feature of this study is the identification of the optimal regulation sequence of final products in various regions to reduce CO₂ emissions with the minimum loss in gross domestic product (GDP). By using China’s MRIO tables 2017 with 28 regions and 42 economic sectors, results show that reduction in final demand leads to simultaneous reductions in GDP and CO₂ emissions. Nevertheless, certain demand side regulation strategy can be adopted to lower CO₂ emissions at the smallest loss of economic growth. Several key final products, such as metallurgy, nonmetal, metal, and chemical products, should first be regulated to reduce CO₂ emissions at the minimum loss in GDP. Most of these key products concentrate in the coastal developed regions in China. The proposed MRIO–LP model considers the inter-relationship among various sectors and regions, and can aid policy makers in designing effective policy for industrial structure adjustment at the regional level to achieve the national environmental and economic targets.     

Economic development,mobility and traffic accidents in Algeria

The aim of this contribution is to estimate the impact of road economic conditions and mobility on traffic accidents for the case of Algeria. Using the cointegration approach and vector error correction model (VECM), we will examine simultaneously short term and long-term impacts between the number of traffic accidents, fuel consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) per capital, over the period 1970–2013. The main results of the estimation show that the number of traffic accidents in Algeria is positively influenced by the GDP per capita in the short and long term. It implies that a higher economic development worsens the road safety situation. However, the new traffic rules adopted in 2009 have an impact on the forecast trend of traffic accidents, meaning efficient public policy could improve the situation. This result calls for a strong political commitment with effective countermeasures for avoiding the further deterioration of road safety record in Algeria.     

The innovation- growth link in OECD countries: Could other macroeconomic variables matter?

This study investigates the Granger causal relationships between innovation, economic growth, information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure, government consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, foreign direct investment, and trade openness. Using panel data from 32 high-income OECD countries from 1970 to 2016 and panel cointegration techniques, results show that these variables are cointegrated. The Granger causality tests further confirm that, taking other variables into account, there is bi-directional causality between innovation and economic growth in the long run. Moreover, both economic growth and innovation are generally impacted in the long run by the other variables that we consider. The short-run causality results reveal a diverse pattern of short-run adjustment dynamics among the variables including the possibility of feedback among some of them. Important policy implications for sustainable economic growth and higher innovation suggest elevating government consumption expenditure, increasing capital formation, further opening of countries' economies to trade, as well as improving ICT infrastructure.     

The limits of technological solutions to sustainable development

Sustainable development has been defined by political and corporate leaders as the combination of environmental protection and economic growth. As a result, the concept of eco-efficiency has been promoted as the primary tool for achieving industrial sustainability. However, there are at least four reasons why technological improvements in eco-efficiency alone will be insufficient to bring about a transition to sustainability. First, considering that the very foundations of western industrial societies are based on the exploitation of non-renewable minerals and fuels, it will be extremely difficult to switch to an industrial and economic system based solely on renewable resources. Clearly, the continuing use of non-renewables is inherently unsustainable because of finite material supplies and the fact that 100% recycling is impossible. Second, given the limited supply of non-renewable fuels, long-term sustainability can only be guaranteed if all energy is derived directly or indirectly from the sun. However, if the current U.S. energy demand would have to be supplied solely from solar sources, a wide range of serious and unavoidable negative environmental impacts are likely to result. Third, even the best of human ingenuity and the greatest technological optimism are bounded by the second law of thermodynamics, which dictates that all industrial and economic activities have unavoidable negative environmental consequences. Finally, improvements in eco-efficiency alone will not guarantee a reduction in the total environmental impact if economic growth is allowed to continue. Unless growth in both population and consumption is restrained, these technological improvements only delay the onset of negative consequences that, as a result, will have increased in severity, thereby reducing our freedom to choose satisfying solutions. Electronic Publication     

New paradigm of ICT productivity – Increasing role of un-captured GDP and growing anger of consumers

The dramatic advancement of the Internet has led all nations to an information communication technology (ICT) driven development trajectory. This trajectory has resulted in bi-polarization between ICT growing economies and ICT advanced economies. While the former enjoys a virtuous cycle between ICT advancement and productivity increase, the later has fallen into a trap of a vicious cycle between ICT advancement and productivity decrease.This paper identifies that this trap can be attributed to the two-faced nature of ICT in which advancement of ICT contributes to price increases due to functionality development while dramatic advancement of the Internet has resulted in price decreases due to freebies, easy copying and standardization.Based on an empirical analysis of a customer preference shift from economic functionality to supra-functionality beyond economic value, this paper unveils the increasing conflict between captured GDP and un-captured GDP derived from the Internet advancement which promotes a freer culture, the consumption of which provides utility and happiness but cannot be captured through GDP data that measures revenue.It was demonstrated that this conflict has led to an emerging growing anger of consumers which can be transformed into a springboard for new innovation leading to a trigger of innovation-consumption co-emergence.     

Packaging production and consumption in the world and in some industrialized countries

This paper reports on statistics concerning production and consumption of packaging (as a whole or per capita) in Europe, in the USA, in Japan and in the world. Data have been provided by National Trade Associations and by consultants specialized in packaging and in economics. It is estimated that in 1986 the global consumption of packaging reached 150 millions of tonnes valued at 1200 billions of French francs. Consumption could reach 247 million tonnes by the year 2000. Paper and board have the highest consumption rate, but plastics have the highest rate of growth. Nevertheless, consumption per capita in the industrialized countries will be more than 10 times the consumption in underdeveloped countries. The packaging industries take fourth place in the USA, sixth in Western Germany and twelfth in France. In Europe, as in the world, paper and board is the material most used (40%), with glass (a high density material) taking second place and plastics third, i.e. if we consider the quantity of materials and not their value. Some differences appear between the various countries, but the figures for USA and Japan lead to similar conclusions. The survey shows clearly that the USA as compared with Europe has twice the consumption of packaging materials per capita and this difference is even greater compared with the rest of the world.     

Value of a statistical life in road safety: A benefit-transfer function with risk-analysis guidance based on developing country data

We model a value of statistical life (VSL) transfer function for application to road-safety engineering in developing countries through an income-disaggregated meta-analysis of scope-sensitive stated preference VSL data. The income-disaggregated meta-analysis treats developing country and high-income country data separately. Previous transfer functions are based on aggregated datasets that are composed largely of data from high-income countries. Recent evidence, particularly with respect to the income elasticity of VSL, suggests that the aggregate approach is deficient because it does not account for a possible change in income elasticity across income levels. Our dataset (a minor update of the OECD database published in 2012) includes 123 scope-sensitive VSL estimates from developing countries and 185 scope-sensitive estimates from high-income countries. The transfer function for developing countries gives VSL = 1.3732E−4 × (GDP per capita)^∧2.478, with VSL and GDP per capita expressed in 2005 international dollars (an international dollar being a notional currency with the same purchasing power as the U.S. dollar). The function can be applied for low- and middle-income countries with GDPs per capita above $1268 (with a data gap for very low-income countries), whereas it is not useful above a GDP per capita of about $20,000. The corresponding function built using high-income country data is VSL = 8.2474E+3 × (GDP per capita)^∧.6932; it is valid for high-income countries but over-estimates VSL for low- and middle-income countries. The research finds two principal significant differences between the transfer functions modeled using developing-country and high-income-country data, supporting the disaggregated approach. The first of these differences relates to between-country VSL income elasticity, which is 2.478 for the developing country function and .693 for the high-income function; the difference is significant at p < 0.001. This difference was recently postulated but not analyzed by other researchers. The second difference is that the traffic-risk context affects VSL negatively in developing countries and positively in high-income countries. The research quantifies uncertainty in the transfer function using parameters of the non-absolute distribution of relative transfer errors. The low- and middle-income function is unbiased, with a median relative transfer error of −.05 (95% CI: −.15 to .03), a 25th percentile error of −.22 (95% CI: −.29 to −.19), and a 75th percentile error of .20 (95% CI: .14 to .30). The quantified uncertainty characteristics support evidence-based approaches to sensitivity analysis and probabilistic risk analysis of economic performance measures for road-safety investments.     

Gold/boron core-shell nanocables synthesized from gold-boron eutectic droplets

Metal/semiconductor core-shell coaxial nanocables are promising building blocks for nanoelectronic devices while in situ growth of these nanocables remains challenging due to the distinctly different synthesis temperature ranges required for metals and semiconductors. To overcome this difficulty, we have developed a vapor-liquid-solid and oxide-assisted bimodal competition growth strategy for in situ metal/semiconductor core-shell nanocable growth. Using this process, gold/boron core-shell nanocables were obtained. A core-shell Au-B/BO(x) eutectic droplet formed via hydrogen gas-assisted rapid cooling was found critical for initiation of the nanocable growth. In addition, the large difference in the boron nanowire growth rates in the vapor-liquid-solid and oxide-assisted mechanisms facilitates the layered growth in the nanocables. The compatibility of this method with the vapor-liquid-solid process applied widely for semiconductor nanowire growth allows in situ connection of metal/semiconductor nanocables with semiconductor nanowires.     

A model of traffic crashes in New Zealand

The aim of this study was to examine the changes in the trend and seasonal patterns in fatal crashes in New Zealand in relation to changes in economic conditions between 1970 and 1994. The Harvey and Durbin (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 149 (3) (1986) 187-227) structural time series model (STSM), an 'unobserved components' class of model, was used to estimate models for quarterly fatal traffic crashes. The dependent variable was modelled as the number of crashes and three variants of the crash rate (crashes per 10,000 km travelled, crashes per 1,000 vehicles, and crashes per 1000 population). Independent variables included in the models were unemployment rate (UER), real gross domestic product per capita, the proportion of motorcycles, the proportion of young males in the population, alcohol consumption per capita, the open road speed limit, and dummy variables for the 1973 and 1979 oil crises and seat belt wearing laws. UERs, real GDP per capita, and alcohol consumption were all significant and important factors in explaining the short-run dynamics of the models. In the long-run, real GDP per capita was directly related to the number of crashes but after controlling for distance travelled was not significant. This suggests increases in income are associated with a short-run reduction in risk but increases in exposure to a crash (i.e. distance travelled) in the long-run. A 1% increase in the open road speed limit was associated with a long-run 0.5% increase in fatal crashes. Substantial reductions in fatal crashes were associated with the 1979 oil crisis and seat belt wearing laws. The 1984 universal seat belt wearing law was associated with a sustained 15.6% reduction in fatal crashes. These road policy factors appeared to have a greater influence on crashes than the role of demographic and economic factors.     

Impact of ICT development on economic growth. A study of OECD European union countries

Most of the scientific literature recognizes a positive impact of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) on economic growth. In contrast, different investigations suggest that this impact is limited or even null, that is, there are mixed results.In view of this problem, we conducted a study whose objective is to analyse the impact of ICT on economic growth.To address the study, we apply Partial Least Squares (PLS), using the databases of Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which allowed us to analyse those European Economic Community countries, members of the OECD, in order to reduce the differences in economic development between the countries analysed. As far as we know, this is the only work that studies the relationship between ICT and economic growth by measuring ICT with the Digital Economy and Society Index database (DESI), in European Union countries that belong to the OECD and that apply the PLS-SEM technique.Based on the empirical results, the paper suggests that progress in the deployment and use of ICT drives the economic growth of countries that are within the framework of developed European economies.     

Sustainable development-oriented industrial restructuring modeling and analysis: a case study in Leshan

This article proposes a sustainable, low-carbon development-oriented industrial restructuring model for developing countries, which balances of environmental protection and economic growth. A case study for Leshan, a representative traditional industrial city in South West China, is given to illustrate the difficulties in accommodating economic and ecological development needs. Multi-objective planning techniques under a fuzzy random environment are used to calculate optimum industrial structure ratios, and a system dynamics-based industrial restructuring optimal model is designed to predict sustainable relationships between the environment, the economy, and society. The possible paths can take to achieve this target are presented and discussed using scenario analysis, after which the simulation results are discussed. Then, integrated policy proposals are suggested to meet the sustainability demands. This research provides more options for researchers and government policy makers in traditional industrial cities of developing countries.     

Non-linear dynamics of innovation activities over the business cycles: Empirical evidence from OECD economies

This study examines the non-linear and asymmetries of innovation activities in thirty-six OECD countries for the period 1981Q1-2019Q4. The impulse response function and historical decompositions were estimated to check the cyclical property of innovation activities (R&D expenditures, residential patents, non-residential patents, and international collaboration in technology development) during the boom and recessions. The impulse response function provided three important results. First, the results indicated that the R&D expenditures moves pro-cyclically in response to the gross domestic product (GDP), exports, imports, and gross fixed capital formation in both the boom and recession periods. Second, the findings suggested that patents (residential and non-residential) move pro-cyclically in response to GDP, exports, imports, labor force, R&D expenditures, and gross fixed capital formation shocks in the boom and recession periods. Third, variables including, R&D expenditures, GDP, exports, labor force, imports, and gross fixed capital formation shocks significantly affected patents (residential and non-residential) during the boom and recession periods across the sampled OECD states. Fourth, the results also suggested that the international collaboration in technology development moves pro-cyclically in response to GDP, R&D expenditures, exports, imports, labor force, and gross fixed capital formation shocks in the boom and recession periods.