A frame knowledge system for managing financial decision knowledge

Managing decision knowledge or expertise from domain experts is one of the most exciting challenges in today’s knowledge management field. The nature of decision knowledge in determining a firm’s financial health is context-dependent, intangible, and tacit in nature. Knowledge-based systems (KBS) have been recognized as a successful paradigm for managing financial decision knowledge attributed to possessing capabilities of reasoning and enhancing the consistency of decision-making. However, most present KBS adopt rules as the knowledge representation scheme, which cannot express the expert’s knowledge construct systematically when dealing with more numerous and disordered knowledge connotations. In addition, the standalone nature of the systems hinders them from deploying onto heterogeneous platforms and cannot accommodate to the emerging Web-enabled environment. To reduce these flaws, this study proposes a frame knowledge system in which the structural and procedural decision knowledge is encapsulated so that unnecessary interference can be avoided. A protocol analysis, before encapsulation, is conducted to elicit the tacit and unstructured knowledge from a senior CPA we cooperated with. The deployment and Web enabling issue is tackled by using Jess and Java interoperable computing. With these combined, it is possible to prompt the understandability, accessibility, and reusability of KBS. The effectiveness of the proposed system is validated in supporting the expert’s decision-making by conducting an empirical experimentation on 537 companies listed in the Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation.     

An expert decision support system for network routing: a case study

The paper presents a case study of the development of an expert decision support system which uses simple heuristic methods for fast determination of routes for simultaneous signals in a transmission network of limited capacity. It illustrates how heuristic solutions can be embodied in a model-based DSS and how the standard decision support literature, although intuitively appealing, provides little practical assistance in system construction or classification     

面向问题分析与决策的专家系统

专家系统的根本目标在于为实际应用问题提供强有力的分析与决策能力。以人类通过长期实践活动总结的复杂问题分析与决策方法为指导思想,建立了以问题对象为核心、相关对象为问题主体、问题现象为表现形式、因果关系为问题变化驱动力、过程知识和原理知识为参考对象的面向问题分析与决策的专家系统。这种专家系统围绕应用领域中的问题构建知识库,而不是使用规则,所以得到的知识系统比较合理、清晰,不容易产生知识矛盾与冲突,有利于大型知识库的构建;同时,采用基于问题的推理,与人类的思维习惯相符合,可以大大提高推理效率;此外,开发这种专家     

应用决策树方法构建评价指标体系

在根据不同应用改进信息熵计算方法的基础上,提出了利用信息增益选择属性作为评价指标并得到其权重的方法。使用信息增益生成决策树,给出利用决策树计算指标评分细则的方法。最后,通过个人住房贷款信用风险评估体系的建立验证了这些方法的实用性。     

Modeling of expert system of quality standard in supply chain

The quality of the products is tremendously hard to retain and even goes out of control when excess links of supply chains are involved in the process and if the quality standards and requirements of the products and parts are neglected. As a result, it is highly necessary to set up an expert system to combine all parts, such as but not limited to: technical standards, experiences of processing and manufacturing involved, the standard rules, and characteristic of parts, etc. together in the form of a knowledge base, so as to inquire and deduce known and unknown standards of products and parts in a timely and effectively manner. This knowledge base is then stored with relational database, relational calculus to be inquired and similarity to be deduced, and these can further form new rules by inductive learning as described in this paper.     

Fuzzy heterogeneous multiattribute decision making method for outsourcing provider selection

One of the critical activities for outsourcing success is outsourcing provider selection, which may be regarded as a type of fuzzy heterogeneous multiattribute decision making (MADM) problems with fuzzy truth degrees and incomplete weight information. The aim of this paper is to develop a new fuzzy linear programming method for solving such MADM problems. In this method, the decision maker’s preferences are given through pair-wise alternatives’ comparisons with fuzzy truth degrees, which are expressed with trapezoidal fuzzy numbers (TrFNs). Real numbers, intervals, and TrFNs are used to express heterogeneous decision information. Giving the fuzzy positive and negative ideal solutions, we define TrFN-type fuzzy consistency and inconsistency indices based on the concept of the relative closeness degrees. The attribute weights are estimated through constructing a new fuzzy linear programming model, which is solved by using the developed fuzzy linear programming method with TrFNs. The relative closeness degrees of alternatives can be calculated to generate their ranking order. An example of the IT outsourcing provider selection problem is analyzed to demonstrate the implementation process and applicability of the method proposed in this paper.     

基于决策树的中毒诊断专家系统实现

为了使中毒诊断专家系统能快速确诊,在分析传统决策推理机制的基础上,提出一种改进的推理机制,应用到系统中,并给出了具体实现方法。该系统根据初始中毒症状,充分考虑中毒症状对确诊的贡献及诊断代价,动态构建决策树,然后通过启发式推理,最终得到确诊结果。系统测试结果显示基本达到预期目的。     

Flexible decision modeling of reverse logistics system: A value adding MCDM approach for alternative selection

The most favorable reverse manufacturing alternative arriving to collection centers has always been a key strategic consideration of any product recovery system. The nature of these decisions usually is considered to be multidimensional, interdisciplinary, complex, and unstructured due to lack of certainty in environment and information regarding time, quantity and quality of returns, etc. Fuzzy decision methodology provides an alternative framework to handle these reverse logistics system (RLS) complexities and to determine the decision strategies for best alternative selection for reprocessing. Designing a decision-making model for the same requires quantitative and qualitative evaluation based on criteria such as cost/time, legislative factors, environmental impact, quality, market, etc. Performance must be considered on the basis of these criteria to determine a suitable reverse manufacturing option depending on the expert opinion in this domain. In this paper, we propose a multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) model based on fuzzy-set theory. The proposed model can help in designing effective and efficient flexible return policy depending on the various criteria. Further, companies can use this analysis as a strategic decision-making tool to develop fresh reprocessing facilities or efficiently use the already exiting facility. Finally, an example has been illustrated to highlight the procedural implementation of the proposed model. Further, this paper also makes an attempt to bring fuzzy-based flexible MCDM and reverse logistics together as a well-suited group decision support tool for alternative selections.     

An agent-based framework for collaborative negotiation in the global manufacturing supply chain network

This paper applies the multi-agent system paradigm to collaborative negotiation in a global manufacturing supply chain network. Multi-agent computational environments are suitable for dealing with a broad class of coordination and negotiation issues involving multiple autonomous or semiautonomous problem solving agents. An agent-based multi-contract negotiation system is proposed for global manufacturing supply chain coordination. Also reported is a case study of mobile phone global manufacturing supply chain management.     

临近空间成像资源配置专家决策系统研究

针对临近空间成像资源配置的多目标组合优化特性,为了降低该问题的求解难度,迅速求解合理可行的临近空间成像资源配置方案,研究了融合决策支持模型的专家决策系统,建立了专家知识库、决策推理机以及规则管理模块,基于专家知识、决策支持模型,运用多级推理机制,其多级推理机制主要包括约束过滤、冲突过滤与综合评价决策,求解临近空间资源配置方案,实际运行结果表明,该系统能较好地解决临近空间资源配置问题.     

A decision support system for strategic asset allocation

Strategic asset allocation is a crucial activity for any institutional or individual investor. Given a set of asset classes, the problem concerns the definition and management over time of the best asset mix to achieve favorable returns subject to various uncertainties, policy and legal constraints, and other requirements. Although a considerable attention has been placed by the scientific community to address this problem by proposing sophisticated optimization models, limited effort has been devoted to the design of integrated framework that can be systematically used by financial operators. The paper presents a decision support system which integrates simulation techniques for forecasting future uncertain market conditions and sophisticated optimization models based on the stochastic programming paradigm. The system has been designed to be accessed via web and takes advantages of the increased computational power offered by high performance computing platforms. Real-world instances have been used to assess the performance of the decision support system also in comparison with more traditional portfolio optimization strategies.     

A Knowledge-based Customization System for Supply Chain Integration

Hostile environmental pressure on supply chain management increases emphasis on supply chain agility, integration, and visibility to respond rapidly, effectively and efficiently to changes in the marketplace. There is a need for new methods and tools to visualize the supply chain topologies which captures and recognizes the complexity of the supply chain network. This paper presents a Knowledge-based Customization System for Supply Chain Integration (KCSSI) which is developed based on three core technologies: visualization of topologies, network analysis, and knowledge-based system so as to obtain quantified actionable information and formulating strategies for supply chain configuration leading the long term success. The performance of the system is verified by a series of controlled simulation experiments conducted in a selected reference site. It is verified that the KCSSI improves supply chain visibility by recognizing the structure clustering and interconnection of the supply chain network, quantifying and exploiting holistic supply chain performance to provide measurable insights for the customization of the supply chain configuration leading to long term success.     

基于电子决策剧场的城市管理决策支持系统体系架构研究

智慧城市是一个复杂的巨系统,在智慧城市管理中存在着很多的公共决策问题。针对决策过程中要解决的两大困难,一是要在城市海量信息中快速获取与决策问题相关的有价值信息,二是要降低实现群决策的时间和经济成本。提出了决策支持综合集成研讨厅的逻辑结构和基于电子决策剧场解决城市公共决策问题的方法;设计了基于电子决策剧场的城市管理决策支持系统体系架构,并给出了具体的应用流程。关键词：     

An expert system for multi-criteria decision making using Dempster Shafer theory

This paper outlines a new software system we have developed that utilises the newly developed method (DS/AHP) which combines aspects of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Dempster–Shafer Theory for the purpose of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). The method allows a decision maker considerably greater level of control (compared with conventional AHP methods) on the judgements made in identifying levels of favouritism towards groups of decision alternatives. More specifically, the DS/AHP analysis allows for additional analysis, including levels of uncertainty and conflict in the decisions made, for example. In this paper an expert system is introduced which enables the application of DS/AHP to MCDM. The expert system illustrates further the usability of DS/AHP, also including new aspects of analysis and representation offered through using this method. The principal application used to illustrate this expert system is that of identifying those residential properties to visit (view), from those advertised for ales through a real estate brokerage firm.     

An intelligent agent-based architecture for strategic information system applications

Strategic information systems (SIS) focus on the use of information system (IS) and information technology (IT) in the strategic management process in business organizations. The emphasis is on the strategic view of IS and IT and their impact on organizational strategy. Increased competition and advances in information technologies push for considerable structural changes in SIS. Agents, as autonomous entities which either work on their own or cooperate with others, and agent architectures have enormous potentials to be applied in such critical systems. In this article, first we investigate the very fundamental concepts of strategic information systems and intelligent agent technology. Then, the discussion continues on the specification of the characteristics and implementation issues of a typical SIS. Afterwards, we make use of these concepts and integrate them into a state-of-the-art, intelligent architecture for strategic information systems, called intelligent agent-based SIS. This is a comprehensive framework for a SIS in IT era which may be put into practice by a team of professionals in the near future. The graphical representation of this model is intended to help the reader understand the concept much better. After explaining the suggested model in full details, we introduce some support agents and specify their corresponding roles in an intelligent agent-based SIS architecture. Discussions and concluding remarks regarding the proposed system are provided at the end of the paper.     

System for supply network management

Strategies and algorithms for operational planning and control are quite important to successful operations of a supply network. Implementation of a strategy requires substantial information system support, but few detailed designs of such systems have appeared in the literature. We designed an information system for a centralized management concept that could handle any type of strategy or algorithm. We developed algorithms for two different strategies deemed important by researchers and practitioners, push and pull, and implemented them in system modules. This information system performed well in simulations of the management of operations of an example six-stage supply network. This system provides an example for operational development as well as a platform for laboratory experiments.     

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Investment Analysis

We present an intelligent decision support system that combines decision analysis and traditional investment evaluation and analysis. The system brings to the ordinary user expertise in both decision analysis and investment evaluation techniques, as well as domain knowledge about the market. The system supports the entire decision analysis cycle and provides facilities and tools for decision modeling, probability assessment, model evaluation, and sensitivity analysis. An example based on the Shanghai Stock Market is presented. We demonstrate how an investment decision model for the stock market is constructed by the system and how the optimal decision is obtained. Sensitivity and value of information analysis were also carried out by the system. Received 12 April 1999 / Revised 8 February 2000 / Accepted 2 March 2000     

An XML-based modular system analysis and design for supply chain simulation

In the contemporary global market, managing the entire supply chain has become crucial for competitive advantage in different industries. However, the realization and success of supply chain management (SCM) depends significantly on the previous supply chain modeling and simulation for analyzing complex systems.     

A decision framework for the analysis of green supply chain contracts: An evolutionary game approach

The overwhelming growth in the struggle between economy and ecology has led managerial research to promote methodologies to reap profits ensuring sustainability of the ecosystem thus venturing into the novel domain incorporating sustainability with supply chain management and coordination. In this paper, we look for a synergetic alliance between the environmental and commercial benefits by establishing coordination between the producer and the retailer to adjudicate their strategies to trigger green practices with the focus on maximizing economic profits by leveraging upon the product’s greenness. A two player game has been developed to stand synonymous to the situation considered. Special considerations have been devised to augment the analysis with the consumer psychology towards the green products to establish a practical outlook involving the greenness and economic returns. Evolutionary dynamics has been adopted extensively to locate the optimal and the most stable point offering the best economic gains. The economically suitable solutions are then substantiated on an existing sustainability metric and hence we aim to offer a holistic view into supply chain dynamics from the perspective of environmental management. The insights drawn provide managerial implications and advantages of having environment as a key focus along with business motives.