经济和能源地缘格局变化及中美战略对策

本世纪头10年世界经济发展和能源消费增长重心东移,转向东亚—南亚弧形地带,其中中国和印度成为领跑者,这一趋势将至少持续到本世纪30年代。中国和印度占世界GDP的份额分别从2000年的3.72%和1.49%上升到2010年的9.34%和2.44%。2000～2010年间世界能源消费总量年均增长率为2.67%,而中国和印度则分别为11.54%和5.18%。2001～2010年间,北美、日本的石油进口量呈下降趋势,欧洲呈微弱增长态势;而同期中国石油进口量年均增长率达16.29%,印度2000～2009年间石油进口量年均增长率为6.32%。2000～2010年间世界煤炭消费量年均增长率为4.84%,2010年煤炭占基础能源的30%;而中国10年间煤炭消费量的年均增长率为13.21%,2010年煤炭占基础能源的70.3%。中国能源消费总量增长过快、能源构成不合理的问题相当突出,必须加大对能源消费总量的控制,大力调整能源结构,坚决扭转煤炭占能源构成比例持续升高的局面。与经济发展和能源消费增长重心东移相应的是中美两国战略思维的变化。美国战略重点东移、"重返亚洲"的目的是遏制中国,这不过是冷战时期围堵的老思维;但美国同时又必须与中国合作,双方的相互渗透、相互依存已经达到相当的程度。而中国必须看到国内外经济形势的变化,形成新的战略思维,改变发展方式,坚定不移地以改革促稳定,以结构调整保发展。     

Energy policy and planning in India

Following the increasing trend in energy prices since 1973, as energy sectors and other economic sectors compete for the limited investible resources in the developing countries, increasing energy import and development costs might constrain their economic growth rate in the foreseeable future. India, as one of the largest developing countries with limited petroleum resources and a large population yet to cross the threshold level of energy consumption needed for economic well-being, is also undergoing increasing economic strains imposed by the energy crisis.The current energy situation in India, the future prospects and the policy issues in the energy and nonenergy sectors having direct impact on the energy situation, are discussed in this presentation. The paper gives an account of the past energy planning studies in India, energy resources and past trends of energy consumption. Energy demand forecasts based on a reference level and an optimal level scenarios as determined by the recent study by the Working Group on Energy Policy appointed by the Government of India are presented. The paper concludes with the presentation of an Energy-Economic Modeling framework for analyzing energy policy and development plans within a macroeconomic planning framework.     

1999～2009年世界煤炭消费量变化分析及启示

分析近10年煤炭消费量的变化,对认识在经济困难背景下不同国家能源构成的走向会有重要启发。国际油价从20世纪末开始攀升,这种影响在1999～2005年间并未使GDP增速明显下降,但还是迫使某些竞争力较弱和/或高耗能企业采用煤炭替代成本较高的石油,经济发展程度较低的国家以煤代油的倾向更明显,煤炭消费年均增长率高达7.60%,使得世界煤炭消费年均增长率比一次能源高出1.7个百分点,而亚太地区竟高出2.31个百分点。油价的持续大幅攀升在2005～2007年间仍未能使GDP增长率下降,但却迫使全球都增加了对煤炭的需求,导致煤炭消费量年均增长率略有上升,与一次能源年均增长率之差增至2.1个百分点。金融危机爆发后,全球GDP增长明显下降,2007～2009年全球一次能源年均增长率为0.18%,煤炭消费年均增长率为1.47%。但新兴市场经济体GDP增速普遍高于OECD国家,同时煤炭消费年均增长率达到6.82%。其中中国和印度在经济较快发展的同时,2007～2009年煤炭消费年均增长率也分别达到8.14%和8.11%。韩国由于高耗能基础工业仍占据重要地位,也加大了煤炭的消费量。中、印、韩等国更多地使用煤炭是在经济困难时保障经济较快发展而被迫采取的重要措施,是正确的能源对策。     

Energy conservation and sustainable economic growth: The case of Latin America and the Caribbean

This study examines the causal relationships among energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in twenty countries from Latin America and the Caribbean region. The methodology includes the use of Phillips and Perron (PP) tests, a cointegration model with vector error correction modeling (VECM) and vector autoregression (VAR) with Granger causality. The study concludes that of the twenty countries analyzed, only in four of them will it be possible to implement energy conservation polices without affecting their economic growth, four others are not able to consider an energy conservation policy with economic growth, and the other twelve should focus on their economic growth before adopting any conservation policies. Energy efficiency was found in this region, especially in the countries which have both cointegration and short-term equilibrium.     

全球能源格局变化及对中国能源安全的挑战

进入21世纪以来,拉美和非洲的石油储产量大幅增长,石油供应向多极化方向发展,石油消费重心正在转向产油国和发展中国家.2000～2011年全球天然气产量增长了35.7％,北美和欧洲天然气探明储量增长居全球领先水平,天然气消费普遍增长.发达国家仍然是能源投资的主体,但同时发展中国家的能源投资也快速增长,发展中国家对煤炭和石油的投资比例均高于发达国家,而发达国家对天然气和电力等清洁能源的投资比例超过了发展中国家.欧美引领着新能源的发展,但由于中国和印度的拉动,亚洲地区有可能成为全球新能源中心.气候变化问题使能源安全的内涵扩展到对环境的影响.此外,中东的石油和天然气消费增速位居全球第一,未来可能会影响对其他地区的出口.世界能源格局的变化使中国能源安全面临一系列新的挑战.首先,作为全球最大的能源消费国,维护全球能源安全是中国的不二选择;其次,维护海外投资利益已成为中国构建新的国际关系的重要考量;第三,需要重新考虑与发达国家和发展中国家的能源外交;另外,如何在国际舞台上发挥主导作用、以何种政治姿态影响和参与全球能源治理,以及如何与周边国家及欧美等国解决能源争端、领土争端和贸易争端,是我国面临的又一挑战.中国要注重能源大国在能源安全中的作用,有区别地与具有不同能源安全利益诉求的国家开展能源外交,在全球能源对话中要积极倡导能源贸易“去政治化”,提出既有利于世界能源安全又有利于我国能源安全的新理念.     

Renewable energy — the way forward

This paper outlines the growing need of energy in the developing countries and the acute population growth, which will exceed 10 billion by the year 2050. It describes the achievement and progress made in geothermal, hydro-power, biomass conversion, solar thermal technology, wind energy conversion and the ever increasing usage of photovoltaics. The paper also addresses the barriers and problems which face renewable energy users and producers. It is evident now that global warming is setting in and is going to change the climate as well as the terrain of many countries unless drastic measures are taken. The recent Kyoto meeting emphasised the importance of limiting CO₂ emissions and to abide by some form of agreement to reduce emissions. Countries such as India, China and Indonesia, which represent nearly half the world's population, are actively involved in using renewable energy as the only means of sustaining their energy growth. It concludes that renewable energy penetration into the energy market is much faster than was expected a few years ago and by the year 2020, 10–15% of our prime energy will be met by renewable energy.     

Coal consumption and economic growth revisited

This paper revisits the causal relationship between coal consumption and real GDP for six major coal consuming countries for the period 1965–2005 within a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework by including capital and labour as additional variables. Applying a modified version of the Granger causality test due to Toda and Yamamoto [Toda HY, Yamamoto T. Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process. J Econom 1995;66:225–50], we found a unidirectional causality running from coal consumption to economic growth in India and Japan while the opposite causality running from economic growth to coal consumption was found in China and South Korea. In contrast there was a bi-directional causality running between economic growth and coal consumption in South Africa and the United States. Variance decomposition analysis seems to confirm our Granger causality results. The policy implication is that measures adopted to mitigate the adverse effects of coal consumption may be taken without harming economic growth in China and South Korea. In contrast, for the remaining four countries conservation measures can harm economic growth.     

Allocation of CO2 emission permits—Economic incentives for emission reductions in developing countries

The economic impacts on developing regions following a global cap and trade system for carbon dioxide are assessed through the use of an energy-economy systems model. Both an equal per capita allocation and a contraction and convergence allocation with convergence of the per capita emissions by 2050 are shown to offer economic incentive for Africa, India and probably also Latin America to accept binding emissions commitments under a 450 ppm carbon dioxide stabilization scenario. The gain for Latin America is mainly a result of increased export revenues from sales of bio-fuels as a result of the climate policy. It is, on the other hand, unlikely that these allocation approaches would offer an economic incentive for China to join the regime because of its high economic growth, present higher per capita emissions than India and Africa, and more costly mitigation options than Latin America. A more stringent allocation for developing countries such as contraction with convergence of the per capita emissions by the end of this century is estimated to generate reduced net gains or increased net losses for the developing regions (though Africa is still expected to gain).     

Host country attractiveness for CDM non-sink projects

In the present study, CDM host countries are classified according to their attractiveness for CDM non-sink projects by using cluster analysis. The attractiveness of host countries for CDM non-sink projects is described by three indicators: mitigation potential, institutional CDM capacity and general investment climate. The results suggest that only a small proportion of potential host countries will attract most of the CDM investment. The CDM (non-sink) stars are China, India, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, South Africa, Indonesia and Thailand. They are followed by attractive countries like Costa Rica, Trinidad and Tobago, Mongolia, Panama, and Chile. While most of the promising CDM host countries are located in Latin America and Asia, the general attractiveness of African host countries is relatively low (with the exception of South Africa). Policy implications of this rather inequitable geographical distribution of CDM project activities are discussed briefly.     

印度能源构成特点和发展趋势

印度是个经济发展较快的人口大国,它目前的经济和能源状况很像本世纪初的中国。印度的能源(特别是煤炭)消费增速自国际金融危机以来不断加快,但作为能源主体的煤炭、石油和天然气的生产、进口都处于一种被压抑的"欠帐"状态,成为影响经济社会发展的瓶颈,保障能源供应是印度发展中最急迫的现实问题。在印度能源构成中煤炭居首位,燃煤发电量占其电力的68%;石油资源,特别是天然气占能源消费总量的比例低于世界均值;水电占一次能源消费的比例较高。印度煤炭进口增长很快,现居世界第三位,且有可能在2020年成为世界第一大煤炭进口国。印度大量进口原油、出口油品,但天然气进口增长缓慢。印度能源生产和进口被压抑的原因在于强行压低国内价格、政府为财政补贴背上重负、能源被国营大企业垄断,以及基础设施落后、政府施政能力薄弱。但这并不能阻止印度在世界经济和能源格局中的地位逐渐增强。本世纪二三十年代,以中国和印度为领跑者的东亚-南亚弧形地带将成为世界重要的能源消费中心,世界能源格局的多元化亦将更加成熟。     

Factors affecting transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Latin American and Caribbean countries: An LMDI decomposition analysis

This study determines the factors responsible for the growth of transport sector CO₂ emissions in 20 Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing the emissions growth into components associated with changes in fuel mix (FM), modal shift and economic growth, as well as changes in emission coefficients (EC) and transportation energy intensity (EI). The key finding of the study is that economic growth and the changes in transportation EI are the principal factors driving transport sector CO₂ emission growth in the countries considered. While economic growth is responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO₂ emissions in Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Peru and Uruguay, the transportation EI effect is driving CO₂ emissions in Bolivia, the Caribbean, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Other Latin America, Panama and Paraguay. Both economic activity (EA) and EI effects are found responsible for transport sector CO₂ emissions growth in the rest of the Latin American countries. In order to limit CO₂ emissions from the transportation sector in LAC countries, decoupling of the growth of CO₂ emissions from economic growth is necessary; this can be done through policy instruments to promote fuel switching, modal shifting and reductions in transport sector EI. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-country analysis

This paper attempts to investigate the causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth using the data from six countries among 20 countries that have used nuclear energy for more than 20 years until 2005. To this end, time-series techniques including the tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger-causality are employed to Argentina, France, Germany, Korea, Pakistan, and Switzerland. The main conclusion is that the causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth is not uniform across countries. In the case of Switzerland, there exists bi-directional causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth. This means that an increase in nuclear energy consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further nuclear energy consumption. The uni-directional causality runs from economic growth to nuclear energy consumption without any feedback effects in France and Pakistan, and from nuclear energy to economic growth in Korea. However, any causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in Argentina and Germany is not detected.     

The impact of coal consumption and CO2 emission on economic growth

This study examined the long-run and the causal relationship between total coal consumption, CO₂ emission, and GDP growth in China, the United States, India, Germany, Russia, South Africa, Japan, Australia, Poland, and South Korea. The panel model was employed during the period 1992–2009. The results showed that total coal consumption and CO₂ emission have a long-run relationship with the GDP growth. In addition, there was a short-run positive bidirectional causal relationship between total coal consumption and CO₂ emission. However, total coal consumption and CO₂ emission have no short-run or long-run causal relationship with GDP growth. Thus energy conservation policies on total coal consumption such as rationing energy consumption and controlling CO₂ emissions are likely to have no negative impact on the real output growth of the investigated countries.     

Development of a biohydrogen economy in the United States,China, Japan,and India: With discussion of a chicken-and-egg debate

This study applies a refined recursive input–output model to predict the development of the biohydrogen sector in the US, China, Japan and India, and its impact on the economic growth of these countries. Simulation results reveal that China will have the largest biohydrogen market, followed by the US, Japan and India in that order. India will see the most efficient investment in the biohydrogen sectors, whereas Japan will have the greatest potential to substitute fossil fuels for biohydrogen. Results can be regarded as providing a general guideline for decision-makers in the development of biohydrogen in their own countries. Simulation results suggest that investment in biohydrogen technologies should have priority over investment in hydrogen infrastructure to maximize the biohydrogen output of all four countries.     

Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: Underlying factors and policy options

This study analyze the potential factors influencing the growth of transport sector carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in selected Asian countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing annual emissions growth into components representing changes in fuel mix, modal shift, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and population, as well as changes in emission coefficients and transportation energy intensity. We find that changes in per capita GDP, population growth and transportation energy intensity are the main factors driving transport sector CO₂ emission growth in the countries considered. While growth in per capita income and population are responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand; the decline of transportation energy intensity is driving CO₂ emissions down in Mongolia. Per capita GDP, population and transportation energy intensity effects are all found responsible for transport sector CO₂ emissions growth in Bangladesh, the Philippines and Vietnam. The study also reviews existing government policies to limit CO₂ emissions growth, such as fiscal instruments, fuel economy standards and policies to encourage switching to less emission intensive fuels and transportation modes.     

Solar energy-economic growth nexus in top 10 countries with the highest installed capacity

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the relationship between solar energy production and economic growth for top 10 countries with the highest installed solar energy production capacity as of 2017 (China, the USA, Japan, Germany, Italy, India, the UK, France, Australia, and Spain, respectively) using data over the period 1999–2015. For this purpose, the paper employs panel cointegration and causality methods that are robust to cross-sectional dependence. The findings imply that the coefficient of solar energy is insignificant in the empirical model and that there is no causality between solar energy and GDP, indicating the neutrality hypothesis prevails for solar energy. Theoretical and practical implications are also discussed.     

The causality relationship between energy consumption and GDP in G-11 countries revisited

This paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development. That is, is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries? A new Granger non-causality testing procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto [1995, Journal of Econometrics 66, 225–250] is applied to re-investigate the relationship, if any, between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries. The results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other, except in the case of the United Kingdom, Germany and Sweden where a neutral relationship is found. Bi-directional causality in the United States and uni-directional running from energy consumption to GDP in Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland are found. This indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries. Further, the causality relationship appears to be uni-directional but reversed for France, Italy and Japan which implies that, in these three countries, energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth.     

Economic growth and energy consumption revisited — Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality

The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is considered as an imperative issue in energy economics. Previous studies have ignored the nonlinear behavior which could be caused by structural breaks. In this study, both linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests are applied to examine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for a sample of Asian newly industrialized countries as well as the U.S. This study finds evidence supporting a neutrality hypothesis for the United States, Thailand, and South Korea. However, empirical evidence on Philippines and Singapore reveals a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption while energy consumption may have affected economic growth for Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Indonesia. Policy implications are also discussed.     

Factors affecting CO2 emission from the power sector of selected countries in Asia and the Pacific

This study analyzes the key factors behind the CO₂ emissions from the power sector in fifteen selected countries in Asia and the Pacific using the Log-Mean Divisia Index method of decomposition. The roles of changes in economic output, electricity intensity of the economy, fuel intensity of power generation and generation structure are examined in the evolution of CO₂ emission from the power sector of the selected countries during 1980–2004. The study shows that the economic growth was the dominant factor behind the increase in CO₂ emission in ten of the selected countries (i.e., Australia, China, India, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, while the increasing electricity intensity of the economy was the main factor in three countries (Bangladesh, Indonesia and Philippines). Structural changes in power generation were found to be the main contributor to changes in the CO₂ emission in the case of Sri Lanka and New Zealand.     

Solar power for irrigation : The small solar thermal pump: an Indian development

Water is the basic element for human survival. A high percentage of the population that is without adequate water facilities mainly for agricultural needs is concentrated in solar-abundant rural areas. Most of these areas are in developing and under-developed countries and are deprived of conventional sources of energies, either due to natural shortages or because of institutional and economic reasons restricting energy availability. In India, about 45 % of GNP originates from the agricultural sector, while the consumption of agricultural pump-sets is estimated to be about 9% of total electricity supply. Out of 550,000 villages of rural India, 80,000 are still to be electrified while the majority of the villages face extensive shortages and uncertainty of electrical power supply mainly in summer when there is maximum need for irrigation. Kiran Chandwalker, Thermalsolar / Stiletto Engineers, Hyderabad, India and M v. Oppen, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany describe an Indian development, the small solar thermal pump, that offers a cost-effective answer to irrigation problems in countries such as India.