Vision 2023: Feasibility analysis of Turkey's renewable energy projection

Electricity consumption of Turkey at the year 2023 is estimated to be around 530,000 GWh. Turkey plans to supply 30% or 160,000 GWh of this demand from renewable energy sources according to the recently avowed government agenda Vision 2023. However, the current installed renewable energy capacity is around 60,000 GWh. Detailed literature analysis showed that only wind and solar energy potential in Turkey can solely supply this demand. In this study, two different scenarios were generated to analyse the cost and environmental impacts of supplying this demand. Scenario 1, which is derived from the official Vision 2023 targets, suggests supplying this demand from wind, solar, geothermal energy and hydropower. The total projected cost based on Scenario 1 is estimated to be $31.000 billion and annual greenhouse gas emissions of 1.05 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. According to Scenario 2 or the contrary setup it is assumed that the required demand gap could not be supplied from new renewable energy investments but equally from coal and natural gas. The projected cost is estimated to be around $8.000 billion and annual greenhouse gas emissions at appalling 71.30 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. Assuming carbon tax at the year 2023 to be $50 per tonne of CO₂ emitted, supplying the demand from renewable energy sources according to Scenario 1 would generate savings worth nearly $2.175 billion from environmental taxes annually. Thus, making the payback time of the renewable energy investments less than 15 years.     

Sustainable energy options for Pakistan

With the advent of the year 2008, Pakistan faces a gap of 4500 MW between the demand and supply of electricity, registering a shortfall of 40%. The article provides an overview of the key dimensions of the crisis, i.e. growing gap between demand and supply, diminishing indigenous oil and gas reserves, rising energy cost and security concerns. It also explores hydropower, solar energy, biomass and wind power as sustainable energy options for the country. In has been found that the total estimated hydropower potential is more than 42 GW out of which only 6.5 GW has been tapped so far. In terms of available solar energy Pakistan is amongst the richest countries in the world, having an annual global irradiance value of 1900–2200 kWh/m². Despite that fact that the biomass plays an important role in the primary energy mix by contributing to 36% of the total supplies, it has not managed to break into the commercial energy market. Wind power, also been identified as a potential source of energy, is yet to take off.     

Restructuring of Turkey’s electricity market and the share of hydropower energy: The case of the Eastern Black Sea Basin

This paper presents the historical development of Turkey’s electricity power sector, the efforts for introducing competition in the power industry in Turkey, and the concerns regarding restructuring in Turkey. The contribution of the hydropower energy potential in Turkey to the reconstruction of the electricity structure in Turkey is also investigated. Then, among the 25 hydrological basins in Turkey, the Eastern Black Sea Basin located in the northeast of Turkey, which has great advantages from the view point of small hydropower potential or hydropower potential without storage, is chosen as the case study to carry out some investigations concerning its potential and to analyze the contribution of the private sector (the corporate body) in regard to the development of hydro potential in this basin within the scope of the 4628 Electricity Market Law. With this law, concerning the restructuring of the electricity market, private sector investments in this segment have increased. In total, 1524 hydroelectric power projects with 22 360 MW installed capacity has been implemented until January 22nd, 2009 and this figure is continuously rising.     

Municipal water supply dams as a source of small hydropower in Turkey

In Turkey the laws published in recent years succeeded in promoting the utilization of renewable energy for electricity generation. After the publication of Renewable Energy Law on 18 May 2005 in Turkey there occurred a boost in renewable energy projects along with hydropower development. Thus, the economically feasible hydropower potential of Turkey increased 15% and the construction of hydropower plants also increased by a factor of four in 2007 as compared to 2006. From this perspective, this paper was aimed to evaluate the small hydropower potential of municipal water supply dams of Turkey and discussed the current situation of SHP plants in terms of the government policy. It is estimated that the installing small hydropower plants to exiting 45 municipal water supply dams in Turkey will generate 173 GWh/year electric energy without effecting the natural environment. For a case study, Zonguldak Ulutan Dam and its water treatment plant has been investigated in detail.     

The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis

This study presents a model-based approach for analyzing the possible effects of global change on Europe's hydropower potential at a country scale. By comparing current conditions of climate and water use with future scenarios, an overview is provided of today's potential for hydroelectricity generation and its mid- and long-term prospects. The application of the global water model WaterGAP for discharge calculations allows for an integrated assessment, taking both climate and socioeconomic changes into account. This study comprises two key parts: First, the ‘gross’ hydropower potential is analyzed, in order to outline the general distribution and trends in hydropower capabilities across Europe. Then, the assessment focuses on the ‘developed’ hydropower potential of existing hydropower plants, in order to allow for a more realistic picture of present and future electricity production. For the second part, a new data set has been developed which geo-references 5991 European hydropower stations and distinguishes them into run-of-river and reservoir stations. The results of this study present strong indications that, following moderate climate and global change scenario assumptions, severe future alterations in discharge regimes have to be expected, leading to unstable regional trends in hydropower potentials with reductions of 25% and more for southern and southeastern European countries.     

Gis-based procedures for hydropower potential spotting

The increasing demand for energy, especially from renewable and sustainable sources, spurs the development of small hydropower plants and encourages investment in new survey studies. Preliminary hydropower survey studies usually carry huge uncertainties about the technical, economic and environmental feasibility of the undeveloped potential. This paper presents a methodology for large-scale survey of hydropower potential sites to be applied in the inception phase of hydroelectric development planning. The sequence of procedures to identify hydropower sites is based on remote sensing and regional streamflow data and was automated within a GIS-based computational program: Hydrospot. The program allows spotting more potential sites along the drainage network than it would be possible in a traditional survey study, providing different types of dam-powerhouse layouts and two types (operating modes) of projects: run-of-the-river and storage projects. Preliminary results from its applications in a hydropower-developed basin in Brazil have shown Hydrospot’s limitations and potentialities in giving support to the mid-to-long-term planning of the electricity sector.     

A GIS-based assessment of maximum potential hydropower production in La Plata basin under global changes

Population growth, economic development, urbanization, changes in hydrological regimes and land use are the main drivers affecting allocation and exploitation of water resources. The pressure exerted by these global changes on the five countries -Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay- located in La Plata Basin over the last decades has raised the need for assessing trends in future electricity demand and energy production in the basin.The aim of this research is to assess whether (and when) shortage and vulnerabilities in terms of hydropower generation are to be expected in La Plata basin in the next decades. The methodology proposed has focused on two aspects to reach the objectives: 1) assessment of hydropower production and electricity demand in the basin over the last twenty years (1987–2008), in order to establish growing trends for the next thirty years; 2) computation of maximum potential hydropower using the newly developed Arc-GIS based tool VAPIDRO-ASTE. The assessment and calculation have been applied to La Plata River and its main tributaries: Paranaiba, Grande River, Tiete, Paranapanema, Iguaçu, Uruguay, Negro River, Paraguay and Paraná.The first outcomes of this research show that La Plata Basin has high hydropower potential. About 40% of the hydropower potential is already used to produce and supply energy. Out of the remaining 60% potential, about 25% could hardly be exploited because of environmental issues or low cost/benefit ratio. Thus, the estimated residual potential hydropower is about 35% of the maximum potential hydropower calculated.     

Determining optimum location and capacity for micro hydropower plants in Lorestan province in Iran

In Iran and other developing countries, transmitting electricity power to remote and inaccessible areas is not cost effective and involves a lot of problems due to high transmission costs and insufficient supply. Therefore local water potential would seem a better alternative to supply electricity. This paper is an investigation into all the issues concerning finding suitable sites for micro hydropower plants in remote areas in Lorestan province in Iran. Therefore, the basins, river network, and rural electricity condition in the province were studied. Then, we came up with a list of locations which would lend themselves best to the installation of micro hydropower plants in accordance to the existing parameters. Finally, an estimation of optimum nominal capacity for each micro hydropower was studied and related economic concerns were discussed.     

Regional sustainable water and energy development projects: A case of Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) in Turkey

Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) region in Turkey is rich in water for irrigation and hydroelectric power. The Euphrates and Tigris Rivers represent over 28% of the nation's water supply by rivers, and the economically irrigable areas in the region make up 20% of those for the entry country. Turkey has a total gross hydropower potential of 433 GWh/yr, but only 125 GWh/yr of the total hydroelectric potential of Turkey can be economically used. By the construction of new hydropower plants, 36% of the economically usable potential of the country would be tapped. The GAP region has a 22% share of the country's total hydroelectric potential, with plans for 22 dams and 19 hydroelectric power plants. Once completed, 27 billion kWh of electricity will be generated annually.     

Paying the full price of steel – Perspectives on the cost of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the steel industry

This study examines the impacts felt downstream of carbon pricing and investments made in CO₂ abatement within the steel industry. Using the supply of steel to a passenger car as a case study, the effects of a steel price increase on cost structures and price at each step of the supply chain were assessed. Since the prices of emission allowances under the European Union Emissions Trading System fall well below those required to unlock investments in low-CO₂ production processes in the integrated steelmaking industry this paper seeks to pave the way for a discussion on complementary policy options. The results of the analysis suggest that passing on the compliance costs of the steel industry would have only marginal impacts on costs and prices for the end-use sectors (e.g., on the production cost or selling price of the passenger car). Under the assumptions made herein, at a carbon price of 100 €/tCO₂, the retail price of a mid-sized European passenger car would have to be increased by approximately 100–125 €/car (<0.5%) to cover the projected increases in steel production costs.     

Hydropower–water and renewable energy in Turkey: Sources and policy

Turkey's energy consumption has been growing much faster than its production. It forces Turkey to make a rapid action to supply energy demand. From the viewpoint of primary energy sources (petroleum and natural gas), Turkey is not a rich country, but it has an abundant hydropower potential to be used for generation of electricity. Hydropower is the most important kind of renewable, sustainable energy and a proven technology for electricity generation. The aim of this paper is to discuss sources and policy of hydropower, water and renewable energy in Turkey and compares the hydropower application with Europe.     

A model for planning energy requirements for residential heating

A model is presented for planning the energy required for heating residential areas, and a case study where the model has been applied to an urban area in Sweden is discussed. The model has been used as a basis for decisions concerning mainly local and regional energy planning in Sweden. The model is a combined dynamic simulation and optimization model. The results are obtained through optimal balancing of investments in heat supply and energy conservation.     

Constructing low emitting power systems through grid extension in Papua New Guinea (PNG) with rural electrification

The effective rural electrification method varies with economic status and geographical location, and the benefits of decentralized generation differ for each energy system depending on its characteristics. This paper evaluates the most effective generation strategies with rural electrification in an optimized power system of Papua New Guinea (PNG) using a linear programming model. The energy system model developed for the study includes decentralized generation, centralized generation, and grid systems of electricity and gas with consideration for the current energy system and infrastructure. Two methods of rural electrification, decentralized generation and grid extension, are compared with and without the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The results of simulations show that extending the power grid that allows economical generation such as coal-fired power and hydropower to supply rural electricity is a more cost effective way for rural electrification. Although grid extension is more capital intensive than decentralized generation, the former reduces the total system cost through reduction of the fossil fuel use. Extending the power grid is also effective at attracting CDM investments, since it makes the power system flexible and provides opportunities to advance low emitting energy such as hydropower.     

Hydropower potential of municipal water supply dams in Turkey: A case study in Ulutan Dam

This paper aims to analyze the hydropower potential of municipal water supply dams in Turkey. The facility is in favor with the energy policy of Turkish Government and European Union. In the study, the design head of the power plant was selected as the average water level of the reservoir and the discharge was calculated from the annual water supply of the dam. It has been estimated that the existing 45 municipal water supply dams of Turkey have an electric energy potential of 173 GWh/year, corresponding to about 24,000,000 Euro/year economic benefit. The financing of these facilities can be provided from international funding institutions. For a case study, Zonguldak Ulutan Dam and its water treatment plant have been investigated in detail. The current electricity consumption of the water treatment plant is 4,500,000 kWh/year and the facility provides 35,000 m³/day water to 6 settlements. The installation of a hydropower plant on the mentioned water treatment plant will cut the electric consumption by 24%. The proposed project has a payback period of 1.4 years and it can produce clean and feasible energy.     

Assessing on-farm productivity of Miscanthus crops by combining soil mapping,yield modelling and remote sensing

Biomass from agricultural land is a key component of any sustainable bioenergy strategy, and 2^nd generation, ligno-cellulosic feedstocks are part of the UK government policy to meet the target of reduced CO₂ emission. Pre-harvest estimates of the biomass supply potential are usually based on experimental evidence and little is known about the yield gap between biologically obtainable and actual achievable on-farm biomass yields. We propose a systematic integration of mapped information fit for estimating obtainable yields using an empirical model, observed on-farm yields and remote sensing. Thereby, one can identify the sources of yield variation and supply uncertainty. Spatially explicit Miscanthus potential yields are compared with delivered on-farm yields from established crops ≥5 years after planting, surveyed among participants in the Energy Crop Scheme. Actual on-farm yield averaged at 8.94 Mg ha⁻¹ and it varied greatly (coefficient of variation 34%), largely irrespective of soil type. The average yield gap on clay soils was much larger than that on sandy or loamy soils (37% vs 10%). Miscanthus is noticeably slower to establish on clay soils as shown by fitting a logistic Gompertz equation to yield time series. However, gaps in crop cover as identified by density counts, visual inspection (Google Earth) and remote sensing (Landsat-5) correlated with observed on-farm yields suggesting patchiness as causal for reduced yields. The analysis shows ways to improve the agronomy for these new crops to increase economic returns within the supply chain and the environmental benefits (reduced GHG emission, greater carbon sequestration) and reduce the land demand of bio-energy production.     

Global water footprint assessment of hydropower

Hydropower is an important renewable energy source, but it can consume a lot of water due to evaporation from the reservoir surface, which may contribute to water scarcity. Previous studies mostly used a gross evaporation approach for water footprint assessment where all the evaporation is attributed to hydropower. They fail to consider both evapotranspiration before the dam construction, which should be deducted from the footprint, and the seasonal storage dynamics of water. These considerations are critical for assessing reservoir impacts on water scarcity using temporally explicit water stress indices. This study seeks to fill this gap: we calculate the water footprints of ∼1500 hydropower plants which cover 43% of the global annual hydroelectricity generation. Apart from reduced water availability, alterations of the flow regime can also adversely affect ecosystems. Therefore, environmental flow requirements are also analysed.This novel approach for the water footprint assessment of hydropower indicates that previous studies mostly overrated the impacts of hydropower on water scarcity, often because reservoirs store water in periods of low scarcity and release water during months of high water scarcity. By contrast, flow alterations generally affect the environment more than water consumption. Since impacts vary broadly among plants, plant-specific evaluations are necessary.     

Bridging the scales: A conceptual model for coordinated expansion of renewable power generation,transmission and storage

To analyze the challenge of large-scale integration of renewables during the next decades, we present a conceptual power system model that bridges the gap between long term investment allocation and short-term system operation decisions. It integrates dynamic investments in generation, transmission and storage capacities as well as short-term variability and spatial distribution of supply and demand in a single intertemporal optimization framework. Large-scale grid topology, power flow distributions and storage requirements are determined endogenously. Results obtained with a three region model application indicate that adequate and timely investments in transmission and storage capacities are of great importance. Delaying these investments, which are less costly than investments in generation capacities, leads to system-wide indirect effects, such as non-optimal siting of renewable generation capacities, decreasing generation shares of renewables, increasing residual emissions and hence higher overall costs.     

City‐regions and the development of sustainable energy‐supply systems

To achieve the CO₂ reductions deemed necessary to limit the impact of adverse climate change will require real changes in the way we both use and supply energy. Although explicit international and national frameworks are necessary to facilitate reduction strategies, regional implementation and local initiatives are increasingly seen as having an important role to play, both in meeting national CO₂ reduction targets and improving the local environment. This paper deals with the supply side of the energy equation for Greater Manchester in the U.K., examining the potential for ‘regional’ energy supply options to contribute to a reduction in carbon intensity. By assessing actual and latent regional opportunities, the potential for achieving a more sustainable energy supply system is evaluated. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GIS-based approach for potential analysis of solar PV generation at the regional scale: A case study of Fujian Province

Spatial variation of solar energy is crucial for the estimation of the regional potential and selection of construction location. This paper presents a case study of using high resolution grid map of solar radiation combined with the other restriction factors to evaluate the comprehensive potential analysis of solar PV generation at the regional scale, in order to present a framework of decision support tool for solar energy management in a regional area. The cost of PV generation is calculated based on the geographical distribution of technical potential. Moreover, geospatial supply curve (GSC) is employed to portray the evolution of available potential of photovoltaics (PV) generation with the increase of the generation cost. By integrating the economic evaluation variables of net present value and simple payback period, grid-based economic feasibility of PV generation project is then carried out under two feed-in-tariff scenarios. Finally, total CO₂ reduction potential and its spatial distribution in the study area are calculated. The results confirm that PV technology provides high potential for roof-top application and large-scale PV stations. Additionally, determining a reasonable feed-in tariff is essential for expanding the application of solar PV energy. The findings improve understanding of regional renewable energy strategies and the supply/demand assessment.     

Potential of renewable energy in electrical energy production and sustainable energy development of Turkey: Performance and policies

Generating electricity, from renewable energy sources has become a high priority in the energy policy strategies at a national level as well as on a global scale. Although Turkey has many energy resources only coal and hydropower are significant at present, and as demand had risen, it has been necessary to import fuels to meet the total energy demand. The fossil resources, both indigenous and imported, have become expensive and also have undesirably high emissions. Turkey has an extensive shoreline and mountains and is rich in renewable energy potential. The share of renewables on total electricity generation is 35% while that of thermal power is 65% for the year 2010. Turkey is one of those countries that are considered rich and abundant in renewable energy resources.Turkey is facing serious challenges in satisfying its growing energy demand. To fuel a rapidly growing economy, the country’s electricity consumption is increasing by an average of 8–9% every year, and significant investments are needed in generation, transmission and distribution facilities to balance the power system’s supply and demand. With very limited oil and gas reserves, Turkey is increasingly turning to renewable energy sources as a means to improve its energy security and curb dependence on imported gas from Russia and Iran. This paper investigates the potential of renewable energy resources in Turkey at present and the magnitude of their present and future contributions to the national energy consumption. Energy politics are also considered.