融合热点话题的微博转发预测研究

微博转发行为是实现信息传播的重要方式,微博转发预测对微博影响力分析、微博话题分析具有重要价值。现有微博转发预测研究大多围绕消息属性、用户属性等微博自身特征,该文提出融合热点话题的微博转发预测方法,对背景热点话题内容和传播趋势对用户转发行为的影响进行量化分析,提出融合背景热点信息的转发兴趣、转发活跃度、行为模式等特征,并基于分类算法建立了面向热点话题相关微博的转发预测模型,在真实数据上的实验结果表明,该方法的预测准确性达到96.6%,提升幅度最高达到12.14%。     

一种微博预警算法

以新浪微博为研究对象,基于用户特征将用户对微博转发量的影响力进行量化,提出了一种微博预警算法。首先,分别研究了大转发量与小转发量的微博作者的用户基本特征,获得其中对关键用户与非关键用户具有良好区分度的特征,并基于信息增益的特征选择法获得用户特征对用户关键性的区分度。随后,基于特征加权模型,提出了一种用户对微博转发量的影响力的量化算法。最后,提出了一种微博预警算法,该算法对给定的新发布的微博,以其作者及已有转发用户的特征就用户对该微博转发量的影响力进行量化,当影响力超过一定阈值时,输出预警信息。该算法可以有效控制敏感微博在网络上的传播及扩散。     

新浪微博网信息传播分析与预测

文中以新浪微博为研究对象,以分析新浪微博的信息转发与传播特征为研究目的,并对传播行为进行预测.在获取大量新浪微博在线数据的基础上,对各种可能影响用户转发行为的因素进行统计、分析,挖掘各种影响因素特征并进行建模.提出基于用户属性、社交关系和微博内容三类综合特征,使用机器学习的分类方法,对给定微博的用户转发行为进行预测.基于微博网关注关系拓扑,利用概率级联模型对给定微博的转发路径进行预测,为预测微博的影响范围提供依据.文中通过实验分析了新浪微博符合复杂网络特征、社交类特征对转发行为有重要影响,并验证了传播预测的有效性.     

基于传染病模型的微博信息传播预测研究

随着微博的爆炸式发展,微博已成为消息扩散和舆论传播的重要平台。研究微博信息的传播对市场营销、舆情管控等方面都具有重要意义。根据微博信息传播特点,结合传染病动力学原理,提出基于经典SIR(Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered)传染病模型的微博信息传播预测模型。该模型考虑了微博用户转发行为对信息传播机理的影响,构建具有微博传播特性的演化方程组。实验结果表明,该模型比SISe模型的预测误差更小,可以更准确地拟合和预测微博信息的转发数,从而预测得出微博信息的传播趋势。     

基于SVM的微博转发规模预测方法

为了评价微博的传播效果, 在分析影响用户转发行为因素的基础上, 提出了采用用户影响力、用户活跃度、兴趣相似度、微博内容重要性和用户亲密程度五项特征进行转发行为预测的SVM算法, 以及基于该算法的转发规模预测算法。最后给出了传播规模预测的评价方法。针对新浪微博用户数据的实验表明, 预测精度达到了86. 63%。     

基于混合特征学习的微博转发预测方法

微博转发预测是研究信息传播的关键问题之一,对于舆情监控、广告投放、商业决策具有重要意义。用户兴趣、微博作者影响力及微博内容等信息均影响信息传播过程。转发行为预测的挑战性问题在于如何捕获更多有意义的影响因素以提高预测性能。提出基于混合特征学习的转发预测方法,该方法首先引入并分析了局部社会影响力特征、用户特征、微博内容特征的计算方法;接着,基于分类器建立预测模型;最后,比较了不同类型微博的转发预测效果。在新浪微博平台数据的实验结果表明,局部社会影响力特征、用户特征、微博内容特征都对转发预测有较大影响,其中微博内容特征的影响最大。随机森林预测效果最好,准确率达到83.1%;与朴素贝叶斯、逻辑回归、支持向量机模型相比,准确率平均提高约7.4%,最高提高约10.8%。另外,该方法对自然灾害、环境、审判、维权等类型的微博进行转发预测时,效果更加明显,说明这类事件转发的规律性更强。     

基于行为分析的微博信息传播效果

微博的传播效果研究对于提高市场营销效率、加强舆情监控和准确发现热点具有重要作用。针对以前传播效果研究中未考虑用户个体差异的问题,提出一种基于行为分析的微博转发规模和传播深度预测方法。从微博用户自身、用户关系和微博内容3个方面提取9个相关特征,结合逻辑回归（LR）方法提出一种转发行为预测模型,并基于此模型结合信息沿用户传播特点,通过逐级对相邻用户迭代统计分析得到转发规模和传播深度预测方法。在新浪微博数据集上的实验结果表明,所提方法对转发规模和传播深度预测的正确率分别约为87.1%和81.6%,能较好地预测出信息传播效果。     

基于网络拓扑结构视角的社交媒体用户转发预测算法

为预测某条微博的具体转发者,在微博是否会被转发的研究基础上,提出了基于社交网络拓扑结构、用户行为及用户间关联三个层面的逻辑回归分类算法,并针对该算法进行真实数据集检测。实验结果表明该预测算法与未考虑网络拓扑结构的算法相比性能显著提升,为实现社交媒体信息传播轨迹精准预测打下重要基础。     

基于循环神经网络的微博转发行为预测

随着网络的飞速发展,微博逐渐成为社交网络中信息传播及信息收集的重要平台,微博转发是微博信息传播的重要途径,研究微博转发问题对微博信息传播、微博营销、舆情监控有着极其重要的意义.影响微博转发的主要因素有：粉丝兴趣与微博文本的相似度,微博营销策略及用户粉丝数量的变化.以往的预测模型没有综合考虑这两方面因素,基于此,提出了一种基于循环神经网络的方法来对微博转发量级进行预测,首先利用SIM-LSTM模型构建微博转发趋势度,然后再利用TF-IDF构建粉丝兴趣和微博文本的相似度,最后通过神经网络模型来预测粉丝是否会转发该微博.实验结果表明本文提出的算法相对于其他预测算法F1评估值提高了近5%.     

面向微博话题的用户影响力分析算法

微博用户影响力分析作为社交网络分析的重要组成部分，一直受到研究人员的关注。针对现有研究工作分析用户行为时间性的不足和忽略用户与参与话题之间关联性等问题，提出了一种面向微博话题的用户影响力分析算法——基于话题和传播能力的用户排序（TSRank）算法。首先，基于微博话题分析用户转发行为时间性，进一步构建用户转发和用户博文转发两种话题转发关系网络，预测用户话题信息传播能力；然后，分析用户个人历史微博和背景话题微博文本内容，挖掘用户与背景话题之间的关联性；最后，综合考虑用户话题信息传播能力以及用户与背景话题间关联性计算微博用户影响力。爬取新浪微博真实话题数据进行实验，实验结果表明，话题关联度更高用户的话题转发量明显大于关联度很低的用户，引入用户转发行为时间性相比无转发时间性，TSRank算法的捕获率（CR）提高了18.7%，进一步与典型影响力分析算法WBRank、TwitterRank和PageRank相比，TSRank算法在准确率和召回率上分别提高了5.9%、8.7%、13.1%和6.7%、9.1%、14.2%，验证了TSRank算法的有效性。该研究成果对社交网络的社会属性、话题传播等理论研究以及好友推荐、舆情监控等应用研究具有支撑作用。     

Only connect: teaching, technology and telesis

Abstract This paper describes an approach to the design of interactive multimedia materials being developed in a European Community project. The developmental process is seen as a dialogue between technologists and teachers. This dialogue is often problematic because of the differences in training, experience and culture between them. Conditions needed for fruitful dialogue are described and the generic model for learning design used in the project is explained.     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

Avoiding semantic and temporal gaps in developing software intensive systems

Development of software intensive systems (systems) in practice involves a series of self-contained phases for the lifecycle of a system. Semantic and temporal gaps, which occur among phases and among developer disciplines within and across phases, hinder the ongoing development of a system because of the interdependencies among phases and among disciplines. Such gaps are magnified among systems that are developed at different times by different development teams, which may limit reuse of artifacts of systems development and interoperability among the systems. This article discusses such gaps and a systems development process for avoiding them.     

Designing economic np control charts: A programmed simulation approach

This paper presents control charts models and the necessary simulation software for the location of economic values of the control parameters. The simulation program is written in FORTRAN, requires only 10K of main storage, and can run on most mini and micro computers. Two models are presented - one describes the process when it is operating at full capacity and the other when the process is operating under capacity. The models allow the product quality to deteriorate to a further level before an existing out-of-control state is detected, and they can also be used in situations where no prior knowledge exists of the out-of-control causes and the resulting proportion defectives.     

The development of robot art

Going through a few examples of robot artists who are recognized worldwide, we try to analyze the deepest meaning of what is called “robot art” and the related art field definition. We also try to highlight its well-marked borders, such as kinetic sculptures, kinetic art, cyber art, and cyberpunk. A brief excursion into the importance of the context, the message, and its semiotics is also provided, case by case, together with a few hints on the history of this discipline in the light of an artistic perspective. Therefore, the aim of this article is to try to summarize the main characteristics that might classify robot art as a unique and innovative discipline, and to track down some of the principles by which a robotic artifact can or cannot be considered an art piece in terms of social, cultural, and strictly artistic interest. This work was presented in part at the 13th International Symposium on Artificial Life and Robotics, Oita, Japan, January 31–February 2, 2008     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

Three Process Perspectives: Organizations, Teams, and People

This paper provides the author's personal views and perspectives on software process improvement. Starting with his first work on technology assessment in IBM over 20 years ago, Watts Humphrey describes the process improvement work he has been directly involved in. This includes the development of the early process assessment methods, the original design of the CMM, and the introduction of the Personal Software Process (PSP)^SM and Team Software Process (TSP){^SM}. In addition to describing the original motivation for this work, the author also reviews many of the problems he and his associates encountered and why they solved them the way they did. He also comments on the outstanding issues and likely directions for future work. Finally, this work has built on the experiences and contributions of many people. Mr. Humphrey only describes work that he was personally involved in and he names many of the key contributors. However, so many people have been involved in this work that a full list of the important participants would be impractical.     

基于复小波噪声方差显著修正的SAR图像去噪

提出了一种基于复小波域统计建模与噪声方差估计显著性修正相结合的合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)图像斑点噪声滤波方法。该方法首先通过对数变换将乘性噪声模型转化为加性噪声模型,然后对变换后的图像进行双树复小波变换(Dualtree Complex Wavelet Transform,DCWT),并对复数小波系数的统计分布进行建模。在此先验分布的基础上,通过运用贝叶斯估计方法从含噪系数中恢复原始系数,达到滤除噪声的目的。实验结果表明该方法在去除噪声的同时保留了图像的细节信息,取得了很好的降噪效果。     

How do children do mathematics with LOGO?

Abstract  This paper considers some results of a study designed to investigate the kinds of mathematical activity undertaken by children (aged between 8 and 11) as they learned to program in LOGO. A model of learning modes is proposed, which attempts to describe the ways in which children used and acquired understanding of the programming/mathematical concepts involved. The remainder of the paper is concerned with discussing the validity and limitations of the model, and its implications for further research and curriculum development.