Housing Careers,House Price Dispersion and the Housing Market Multiplier

Housing markets reflect our housing consumption profile over the life cycle. As we age, marry and have kids, we seek larger dwellings and to a greater extent owner-occupied housing. The up-trading process has two key characteristics: first, it is equity induced. Second, it impacts both the supply and demand sides of housing markets. This is our point of departure. The paper combines a housing ladder with a house price index to show how up-trading amplifies shocks and introduces a multiplier into the housing market. The interplay between market segments results in up-trading induced price dispersion and a price response in the segments on top of the ladder that exceeds those of segments further down, even when shocks are equal across market segments. Finally, as up-trading impacts both housing supply and housing demand, even balanced shocks to net demand might impact house prices. Focusing on different market segments, shocks to demand might have both direct (the size effect) and indirect (the up-trading effect) effects on the house price index. This paper highlights policy options at a finer level when in need of stimulating or dampening house price cycles.     

A methodology to compute regional housing price index using matching estimator methods

This paper proposes a methodology for a spatial cost index of housing that considers spatial heterogeneity in properties across regions. The index is built by combining three different techniques to reduce the spatial heterogeneity in housing: Quasi-experimental methods, hedonic prices and Fisher spatial price index. Using microdata from the Chilean survey CASEN 2006, it is shown that the quasi-experimental method called Mahalanobis metric within propensity score calipers (MMWPS) leads to a significant reduction in the potential bias. The technique matches dwellings of a particular region with other properties of similar characteristics in the benchmark region (Metropolitan region). Once the houses are matched, a hedonic price model is computed, and a regional housing price matrix is created using Fisher spatial price indices. The paper concludes the existence of price differentials for homogeneous houses across regions in Chile.     

Do Urban House Prices Converge?

We investigate two aspects of housing market price dynamics. Firstly, whether the spatial pattern of house prices in a metropolitan housing market converge or diverge over time and secondly, whether suburbs with relatively low (high) house prices 20 years ago continue to occupy the same relative position in the house price distribution. The empirical work uses a property transaction database for Melbourne to examine the changing distribution of suburban house prices over a nearly 20-year period (1990–2009) that spans two housing cycles. We focus on convergence measures that use Melbourne submarket-based repeat sale house price indexes as a unit of measurement. We find that house prices diverge, and so the gap between low-priced submarkets and high-priced submarkets is increasing. A second key result is that low-priced submarkets typically remain at the low end of the house price distribution, because their rates of appreciation fall short of those at the upper end of the house price distribution. The geography of house price dynamics suggests that the price gradient with respect to distance from the central business district is becoming steeper.     

空气污染对住房价格的影响以及环境政策的效果分析 — —以美国休斯顿地区为例

在过去的几十年中,美国通过联邦 的环境保护署致力于改良城市空气质量,在 大范围上取得了相当优异的成绩。然而,在 一些重要的工业大都会,空气污染依旧比较 严重。工业排放和依赖传统化石能源的交通 工具被普遍认为是城市空气污染的两个主要 来源。在国外城市规划的相关研究中,经常 探讨污染对居民住房选择的影响,评价社区 发展的公平性与正义性,并提出相应的环境 污染管理政策。然而,很少有研究对环境政 策的效果进行量化评价。本文选择美国德克 萨斯州休斯顿地区作为研究对象,分析研究 空气污染和住房价格之间的潜在联系,回答 空气污染是否对住房价格具有显著影响的 问题。同时,探讨空气污染对不同种族聚居 的社区的影响,以及区域性环境保护政策的效果,特别是对空气质量和住房价格的关系所产生的影响。本研究采用享乐价格模型（hedonic price model）,利用休斯顿地区哈里斯县的住房价格来量化城市臭氧污染对社区和人口的影 响,以及房价对当地区域性环境政策的反馈。研究发现哈里斯县的房价符合一般市场规律,即 房价与房龄成负相关,与建筑面积,学区质量,交通可达性和家庭收入等变量成正相关。其次, 可达性等交通分析显示出房价与到城市中心商业区的距离成负相关,这体现出美国城市发展的 模式。另外,通过分析发现,空气污染对城市少数族裔聚集的社区具有不平衡的影响。最后,通 过对联邦环境署在该地区颁布的三个年份（1997年、2008年和2015年）的环境标准进行评估, 显示出环境政策对房价的影响：第一,政策带来的效果具有滞后性;第二,新的环境政策实施 以后,普遍对当地房价具有积极的意义。该研究首次分析了休斯顿地区的空气污染与住房市场 之间的关系,深入地探讨了当地的环境政策,同时以此为实例解释了美国城市发展与环境之间 的联系。     

Suburban Housing Resale Prices and Housing Market Restructuring

This study shows that in the suburban rings surrounding Cleveland, Ohio average resale prices are sustained through capitalization of quality–price preferences for housing and school quality. Average housing resale prices are highest where local fiscal capacity is built upon a strong residential–nonresidential property tax base and where the total valuation resulting is capitalized into housing stock prices. High total valuation per pupil enables school districts to maintain satisfactory per pupil expenditures that contribute to the sustainability of resale prices. Nonetheless, regional restructuring, population growth, access to superior housing, open space and other amenities in the peripheral, inner– and outer–edge suburban rings are redirecting investment away from the contiguous ring suburbs where the levying of high effective millages is causing total valuations per pupil to fall. Diminishing school district quality and shrinking tax bases in the contiguous suburbs are harbingers of suburban distress and housing disinvestment.     

Silver bullet or trojan horse? The effects of inclusionary zoning on local housing markets in the United States

Many local governments are adopting inclusionary zoning (IZ) as a means of producing affordable housing without direct public subsidies. In this paper, panel data on IZ in the San Francisco metropolitan area and suburban Boston are used to analyse how much affordable housing the programmes produce and how IZ affects the prices and production of market-rate housing. The amount of affordable housing produced under IZ has been modest and depends primarily on how long IZ has been in place. Results from suburban Boston suggest that IZ has contributed to increased housing prices and lower rates of production during periods of regional house price appreciation. In the San Francisco area, IZ also appears to increase housing prices in times of regional price appreciation, but to decrease prices during cooler regional markets. There is no evidence of a statistically significant effect of IZ on new housing development in the Bay Area.     

Shock Hunting: Effects of Regional-dependent,Regional-specific Shocks in the Swedish Property Market

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate housing price risks by examining the price diffusion process in different regions of Sweden. We model regional housing volatility as stemming from two sources: regional-specific shocks that reflect fundamental changes and regional-dependent shocks that reflect shocks in related regions. We evaluate the relative contributions of these two sources of regional price variations and measure shock persistence using multivariate modelling. Our results confirm the importance of price diffusion across regions and indicate that several influential regional prices are singled out as powerful determinants of regional heterogeneous volatility through direct and indirect influences.     

基于均衡价格形成机制的住宅价格变化特征研究

依据供求关系原理和住宅价格变化特征模型,探讨住宅均衡价格的形成机制与住宅实际价格的变化机理。利用我国35个大中城市2000～2004年的经济统计指标和住宅市场数据,识别出住宅均衡价格;并将实际价格变化分解成均衡价格变化、实际价格的均值回复和趋势性运动等三个组成部分,重点研究住宅实际价格与均衡价格之间的关系。研究表明:我国住宅市场存在由供求基础决定的均衡价格,城镇家庭人均可支配收入、个人住房抵押贷款利率水平、城镇人均居住面积、非农人口数等需求因素,以及供给成本、城市化水平和城市建成区面积等供给因素对住宅均衡价格存在显著影响;住宅实际价格的变化受到均衡价格变化的显著影响;住宅实际价格可通过自我调整回复到均衡价格水平,并存在缓慢上涨的趋势。     

The long- and short-run influences of housing prices on migration

A change in housing prices has a profound impact on households' housing equity and future moving decisions. While most previous studies focus on discussing the mobility lock-in effect due to housing price depreciation, revealing that there is a positive relationship between housing prices and migration, this study reexamines their relationship by using the panel cointegration method and city-level panel data for Taiwan during the 1994–2016 period. The empirical results reveal that migration and housing prices are cointegrated, and the influence of housing prices on migration is significantly positive in the long run. However, the influence of housing price changes on migration is not as significant as expected in the short run. To further examine their short-run relationships, we use quantile regression and the results show that the influence of housing price changes on migration is significantly negative below the 0.5 quantile, but it turns out to be significantly positive in the 0.9 quantile. The influence of housing price changes on migration is not significant between the 0.5 and 0.8 quantiles. We conclude that the influence of housing price changes on migration might be asymmetric in the short run.     

Price discovery of property markets in Shenzhen and Hong Kong

Hong Kong and Shenzhen, while being interrelated in many aspects, have encountered different types of demand shocks throughout the past decade. This is likely due to disparities in market conditions and degrees of government regulations. In the light of such differences in property price trends, this research first investigates the relationships between housing prices and market fundamentals for both cities; and then it explores whether a housing price bubble existed for them in 2006. The results indicate that housing prices seem to have interacted abnormally with market fundamentals in recent years, especially for Shenzhen. In addition, while Shenzhen’s housing prices are mainly explained by previous housing prices and personal income, most economic indicators explain Hong Kong’s housing prices well. With regard to price bubbles, a puny bubble which amounts to as much as 4.5% of the housing price was formed in Shenzhen in 2006. In the meantime, the housing price bubble for Hong Kong had been diminished. Though currently not at dangerous levels, housing price bubbles should be taken with caution especially in today’s China, characterized by overinvestment and rapid policy changes.     

Development of house prices in the Netherlands

This contribution concerns the development of prices in the owneroccupied sector in the Netherlands. The analysis focuses on the development over two decades, from 1975 to 1995. That period may be divided into a number of phases of growth and stagnation, as defined by fluctuating house prices. Some explanations for these fluctuations are offered here. These include the influence of regulation by government and other major institutions; demographic developments; developments in the supply of owner-occupied dwellings; developments in a number of economic variables; and the dynamics of the market. Then an attempt is made to estimate how prices will develop in the future. It should be kept in mind that this forecast is based on statistical relations that were calculated with reference to the past. In the event those relations change in the future, the model estimated here would not yield good predictions. Peter Boelhouwer is researcher at the OTB Research Institute for Policy and Technology at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. His research focus has been general housing policy, housing finance and comparative housing research. Johan Conijn is director of the OTB Research Institute for Policy and Technology at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. His research focus has been general housing economics, housing finance, and general housing policy. Paul de Vries is assistant-researcher OTB Research Institute for Policy and Technology at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands. His research focus has been building market and statistical analyses.     

A Nested Housing Market Structure: Additional Evidence

This paper analyses the housing market and its structure in Málaga, a medium-size European city, which has become one of the main Spanish tourist destinations and thus one of the most active housing markets in Spain. This has led to coastal land being misused to the extent that it has almost been used up. First, the market as a whole is studied using the hedonic methodology. Then a method is presented which segments the market into sub-markets, following an ad hoc design based on two criteria: structural (vertical and horizontal dwellings) and location (proximity to the coast). The results show that this segmentation method is efficient, demonstrating implicit attribute prices as well as final house prices which are statistically different from each other, above all when dwellings are next to the coast and between those further away. Finally, some implications for urban policy are drawn.     

Impact of Urban Growth Boundary on Housing and Land Prices: Evidence from King County,Washington

This study provides evidence of the impact of an urban growth boundary (UGB) on housing and land prices. The study uses a data-set that inventories sales transactions of single-family homes and of vacant lots zoned for single-family homes within two miles of either side of the eastern boundary of the primary UGB in King County, Washington. The results show that although the UGB increases land prices by 230 per cent, it decreases housing prices by 1.3 per cent. These findings should encourage policy-makers to adopt a policy framework in which a UGB's anticipated inflationary land price effect is mitigated by policies that increase housing supply. Such policies could include minimum density requirements, zoning for multifamily housing, and ordinances enabling the construction of accessory dwelling units.     

于GWR模型的广州市住宅价格影响因素研究

以广州市“都会区”为例,基于2016~2019年住宅小区均价及POI数据,综合运用kriging插值、GWR模型对广州市住宅价格空间分布结构及其影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明:2016~2019年广州市住宅价格整体呈上升趋势,沿珠江水系发展的双核、多次中心、组团式的空间结构已基本成型;高速/快速路口、三甲医院、省一级小学对住宅价格的回归系数在中心城区与近郊区域间呈明显的正负差异,绿化率、地铁、房龄等单向影响因素回归系数强弱渐变;房龄、CBD、省一级小学、三甲医院、绿化率、休闲配套对中心城区住宅价格影响较大,而近郊区域主要受地铁、高速/快速路口的影响;较全局OLS模型,GWR模型的拟合优度大幅提高19.9%,能够更加精确地研究住宅价格影响因素的空间异质性。     

城市住房价格跨区域联动的检验与模式研究

以35个大中城市住房价格为研究对象,在构建空间计量模型检验跨区域联动的基础上,借助GVAR模型与网络分析方法,从总体、个体两个层面,考察跨区域联动的具体模式。结果显示:城市住房价格呈现显著的正向跨区域联动;总体层面上,跨区域联动相互交错呈网络结构;个体层面上,单个城市住房价格变动对全国、区域层面住房价格的影响呈现非均质性和空间异质性特征。因此,应深化对住房价格形成机制的认识,以更准确地促进政策目标的实现。     

Housing Diversity and Affordability: The Effects of 35 Years of Exclusionary Land Use Regulations on Housing Affordability in Adelaide,South Australia

ABSTRACT

Australia is often described as being in the midst of a housing affordability crisis. This research analyses the effect exclusionary land use regulations have had on housing diversity and affordability in Adelaide, South Australia. The research shows there are significantly greater numbers of relatively affordable dwellings available areas where an absence of land use regulations for significant periods of time has enabled housing diversity. It also shows that metrics that compare median incomes with median prices are unreliable indicators of affordability as median prices alone are unable to capture the breadth of housing prices that exist within them.     

Multifamily housing and resident life satisfaction in Europe: an exploratory analysis

Much of the literature on sustainable communities and compact cities calls for higher density housing including multifamily dwellings. Some researchers suggest problems with such dwellings. However, rigorous comparative research on this topic has not been conducted to date. This paper draws on a high quality, comparative data-set, the European Social Survey, to analyse (a) the quality of multifamily dwellings in European urban areas, (b) the characteristics of residents, (c) their life satisfaction compared with those living in detached housing and (d) the relative importance of built form in explaining life satisfaction. One of the main findings from the multivariate analyses is that residing in multifamily housing is not a statistically significant predictor of life satisfaction when you control for standard predictors of life satisfaction and housing and neighbourhood quality. Overall, the findings provide support for both place-based and people-based responses to urban regeneration. Both physical and social regeneration are required, addressing the education/training needs of residents and economic development strategies.     

Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: the case of Turkey

Abstract

Housing prices have increased substantially in some emerging markets in recent years. Turkish housing market has also experienced a boom over the last decade with rapid house price appreciations. This study is the first to employ two different house price indexes to analyze housing bubble in Turkey in two different time periods, 2010:M1–2014:M12 and 2007:M6–2014:M12. We first capture the determinants of housing price by employing Bounds test and then examine whether rising house prices have been justified by fundamentals by employing OLS/FMOLS/DOLS, Kalman filter and ARIMA models. The Bounds test results suggest that there is a long-term cointegration among house price indexes and housing rent, construction cost and real mortgage interest rate. The results imply that the Turkish housing market has experienced some cases of overvaluation, but not bubble formation. This evidence has several implications for house price dynamics and risks in the Turkish housing market. Based on Turkish experience, the study also draws policy implications for emerging housing markets.     

High dwelling vacancy rate and high prices of housing in Malta a mediterranean phenomenon

Current data from South European countries, especially Malta, indicates the existence of some contradictory forces in the housing market that defy the law of supply and demand and require explanation. In a ‘normal’ housing market, it can be expected that a high dwelling vacancy rate would help keep down the price of housing. In Malta, however, both the vacancy rate and housing prices have been rising in tandem for decades, unabated, even under the recent international market crunch. The government housing policy, which has always stimulated homeownership, is still encouraging new house building. Despite the high number (over 50,000) of vacant dwellings, the authorities issue more than 6,000 building permits annually to the private sector. In this paper we outline and explain the major factors contributing to this unlikely combination. Doing so, we use a welfare-state perspective. We identify and explain the underlying factors that are collectively responsible for such a paradox: the state; the family; the powerful Catholic Church; the underdeveloped Maltese financial market; and the paternalistic culture prevalent in Malta.     

Assessing economic,social and environmental impacts on housing prices in Hong Kong: a time-series study of 2006, 2011 and 2016

Given Hong Kong’s unique high-density urban environment and limited land resources, more and more general public has been concerned about the living quality. Based on three waves of census data (2006, 2011 and 2016), combined with our spatial–temporal urban environmental database consisting of three local datasets of urban climate and air quality, this paper assesses the impacts of social, economic and environmental factors on the logarithm of housing prices in Hong Kong through linear regression analysis. Specifically, both supply- and demand-side economic factors have significant impacts on housing prices. Demographic factors are not as significant as expected in affecting housing prices. Transportation factors have more significant effects in the short run than in the long run. Environmental factors, including the number of hot night hours, Annual Air Quality Index (AAQI) of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and particulates with particle sizes less than 10 microns (PM₁₀), significantly affect housing prices over time. The results have important implications: current policy instruments to prevent housing price escalation are focused on increasing property tax or land supply (economic factors), while little attention is paid to social or environmental factors, which are geographically heterogeneous. Our findings suggest that housing provision in the New Territories may be a feasible solution to alleviate the housing crisis as its demographic pattern, transportation connectivity and air quality are significantly different from Hong Kong Island or Kowloon Peninsula. In regard to urban environmental problems brought by the high-density development in Hong Kong despite land-use saving, intensified urban infrastructure and promotion of public transportation, our study contributes to the understanding of its housing price dynamics from a more holistic perspective by comparing the impacts of economic, social and environmental factors.