Contractor’s Opportunistic Bidding Behavior and Equilibrium Price Level in the Construction Market

The competitive bidding system has been to blame for abnormally low bids, which are considered as one of the main causes of poor project quality. Previous studies have regarded the pricing of bidders as an optimum decision based on contractor’s cost and market competition level. However, the sell to produce characteristic of construction projects may induce contractors to offer a low bid and then make up the amount initially sacrificed from beyond-contractual reward (BCR) gained through cutting corners and claims. System dynamics was adopted in this study to develop a contractor’s pricing model with consideration of the dimensions of cost, market competition, and BCR. The model was then examined by statistical analysis of data collected from 44 highway projects in Taiwan. It was found that the equilibrium market price is significantly associated with BCR, which is assumed to be determined by the strictness of the owner’s construction management, including both soundness of contract and tightness in construction supervision. Research results suggest that contractors divide the market into different segments according to the owner’s strictness of construction management and the equilibrium price level of each market segment varies. The price level for projects with a strict owner is remarkably higher than for those with relatively less strict owners. Improvement in the construction management system of projects is crucial to lower the possibility that contractors gain BCR and do opportunistic bidding, and to further enhance project quality.     

Time Series Analysis of ENR Construction Cost Index

Every month, Engineering News-Record (ENR) publishes the construction cost index (CCI), which is a weighted aggregate index of the 20-city average prices of construction activities. Although CCI increases over the long term, it is subject to considerable short-term variations, which make it problematic for cost estimators to prepare accurate bids for contractors or engineering estimates for owner organizations. The ability to predict construction cost trends can result in more-accurate bids and avoid under- or overestimation. This paper summarizes and compares the applicability and predictability of various univariate time series approach for in-sample and out-of-sample forecastings of CCI. It is shown that the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average model is the most-accurate time series approach for in-sample forecasting of CCI, while the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model is the most-accurate time series approach for out-of-sample forecasting of CCI. It is also shown that several time series models provide more-accurate out-of-sample forecasts than the ENR’s subject matter experts’ CCI forecast. Cost estimators can benefit from CCI forecasting by incorporating predicted price variations in their estimates and preparing more-accurate bids for contractors and budgets for owners. Owners and contractors can use CCI forecasting in reducing construction costs by better-timed project execution.     

Analysis of Owner’s Design and Construction Quality Management Approaches in Design/Build Projects

This paper explores and classifies current approaches to evaluating quality in design/build (DB) proposals. It does so by a thorough content analysis of 78 requests for proposal (RFPs) for public DB projects with an aggregate contract value of over $3.0 billion advertised between 1997 and 2002. In most DB projects, the owner requires the DB contractor to establish a firm-fixed price on a project that has not yet been designed. Usually, the owner also fixes the project delivery period. In the traditional design/bid/build (DBB) system, quality is fixed through the plans and specifications. Thus, in DBB, with schedule and quality fixed, the cost of construction is the factor in which the owner seeks competition. Conversely, in DB, with cost and schedule fixed, the scope and hence the level of quality is the main element of competition. This paper identifies the six owner approaches to articulating DB quality requirements in their RFPs. The six approaches are quality by qualifications, evaluated program, specified program, performance criteria, specification, and warranty. These are important for DB contractors to understand so that they can craft their proposal in a manner that is both responsive to the owners’ requirements and consistent with the owner’s system to make the best value contract award decision.     

Model for Quantifying the Impact of Change Orders on Project Cost for U.S. Roadwork Construction

Change orders are very common in almost every construction project nowadays, often resulting in increases of 5–10% in the contract price. Understanding the consequences of such trends, several studies have attempted to quantify the impact of change orders on the project cost. Most of the studies aimed at the quantification of the change orders were sponsored by contractors’ organizations, where statistical models used to quantify the impact of the change orders on the project cost were based on data supplied by the contractors; a situation that can lead to owner-contractor disagreements related to the quantification method used. In addition, most of the studies tackled commercial and electromechanical work, and very rare studies tackled the field of heavy construction; a field that suffers from change orders because of errors and omissions, scope of work changes, or changes because of unforeseen conditions. This study addresses the need for a statistical model to quantify the increase of the contract price due to change orders in heavy construction projects in Florida. The model is based on data collected from 16 Florida DOT projects with contract values that ranged between $10–$25 million, and that encountered an increase in the contract price from 0.01 to 15%. Eleven variables were analyzed to test their impact on the cost of the change orders. The study concluded that most significant variables that impact the value of the change order, which are (1) the timing of the change order and (2) when the reason for issuing the change order is unforeseen conditions. Two regression models are developed and validated as follows: (1) a model to quantify the percentage increase in the contract price due to the change orders that increase the contract price from 0.01 to 5% and (2) a model to quantify the percentage increase in the contract price due to the change orders that increase the contract price from 5 to 15%. Those models will provide the owner with a retrospective or forward pricing of the change orders, and hence, allow the owner to estimate and utilize contingency amounts.     

Payment Timing as a Factor in Bid Evaluation

While the timing of payments to the contractor, in the course of the construction process, is an important factor in the project cost, it is not referred to either by the bid‐comparison procedures or by the contract terms, in almost all kinds of contracts used in construction projects. An attempt is made here to overcome the consequent disadvantages to the owner, by means of a procedure based on an obligatory schedule whose activities are appropriately related to the items of the bill of quantities, the whole set‐up forming an integral part of the bid and of the final contract. This enables the owner to prepare cash‐flow estimates for the bids, compare them according to the present value of all expected payments, and select the bid with minimum cost. Apart from this, the procedure neutralizes bid imbalances (regarding unit prices and the production schedule) and facilitates deferment of non‐critical activities, thereby reducing financial cost. The cash‐flow estimate of the winning bid serves as a basis for the owner's budget planning, with much higher accuracy in this function. The suggested procedure is adapted also for comparison of bids in which construction duration is determined by the bidder within a given interval.     

Strategic Positioning of Inventory to Match Demand in a Capital Projects Supply Chain

Industrial buyers of capital facilities have experienced and continue to experience pressure to reduce facility design and construction lead time. This pressure arises both internally (due to successes in manufacturing lead time reductions) and externally (due to competitive forces including narrowing product delivery windows). This paper presents a case study detailing one owner’s efforts to reduce the length and variability of delivery time for long-lead construction materials in order to improve overall project lead time. The owner adopted a long-term multiproject perspective, procuring material in advance of specific projects and holding it at a position in the supply chain selected to allow flexibility for customization. Reduction in lead time of 75% from order to delivery of the material resulted for individual projects within the owner’s capital plan. As a result, the material was available at the construction site well in advance of its need for erection. To study if holding material at alternative locations in the supply chain could provide a better match between delivery quantities and the demand for erection, the supply chain was simulated. In this case study, demand information was imprecise, allowing only the quantity of material delivered to be considered rather than matching specific items to specific locations. Nonetheless, the results demonstrate the utility of simulation in the capital projects supply chain and the value of improving demand forecasts.     

Risk Allocation and Risk Handling of Highway Projects in Taiwan

Risks always exist in construction projects and often cause schedule delay or cost overrun. Risk management is a key issue in project management. The first step of risk management is risk identification. It includes the recognition of potential risk event conditions in the project and the clarification of risk responsibilities. We conducted multiple-case studies using a systematic analytical procedure to identify risks in highway projects in Taiwan, to recognize risk allocation by contract clauses, and to analyze the influence of risk allocation on the contractor’s risk handling strategies. The results show that the owner allocates risks by stipulating specific contract clauses into five kinds of risk allocation conditions. If a risk is more controllable by the contractor, the owner has a greater tendency to allocate the risk to the contractor. Risk allocation determines which kinds of risks the contractor would take and influences the contractor’s risk handling decisions. The analysis furthermore indicates that, if the probability of a certain risk event condition is uncontrollable, then with the increasing possibility of taking the risk, the contractor’s tendency of risk handling changes from actively transferring the risk to passively retaining the risk. In contrast, if a risk is controllable and certainly allocated to the contractor, the contractor tends to take the initiative to reduce the impact caused by the risk event rather than retain the risk.     

Cumulative Effect of Project Changes for Electrical and Mechanical Construction

Change is inevitable on construction projects, primarily because of the uniqueness of each project and the limited resources of time and money that can be spent on planning, executing, and delivering the project. Change clauses, which authorize the owner to alter work performed by the contractor, are included in most construction contracts and provide a mechanism for equitable adjustment to the contract price and duration. Even so, owners and contractors do not always agree on the adjusted contract price or the time it will take to incorporate the change. What is needed is a method to quantify the impact that the adjustments required by the change will have on the changed and unchanged work. Owners and our legal system recognize that contractors have a right to an adjustment in contract price for owner changes, including the cost associated with materials, labor, lost profit, and increased overhead due to changes. However, the actions of a contractor can impact a project just as easily as those of an owner. A more complex issue is that of determining the cumulative impact that single or multiple change orders may have over the life of a project. This paper presents a method to quantify the cumulative impact on labor productivity for mechanical and electrical construction resulting from changes in the project. Statistical hypothesis testing and correlation analysis were made to identify factors that affect productivity loss resulting from change orders. A multiple regression model was developed to estimate the cumulative impact of change orders. The model includes six significant factors, namely: Percent change, change order processing time, overmanning, percentage of time the project manager spent on the project, percentage of the changes initiated by the owner, and whether the contractor tracks productivity or not. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the model to study the impact of one factor on the productivity loss (%delta). The model can be used proactively to determine the impacts that management decisions will have on the overall project productivity. They may also be used at the conclusion of the project as a dispute resolution tool. It should be noted that every project is unique, so these tools need to be applied with caution.     

Method to Determine Minimum Contract Bid for A+B+I?/D Highway Projects

More and more state highway agencies (SHAs) have begun to consider the value of time in highway construction. The “A?(cost)+B?(time?cost)+I/D?(incentive/disincentive)” bidding concept is designed to shorten the total contract time by allowing each contractor to bid the number of days in which the work can be accomplished, in addition to the traditional cost bid. I/D are not only used to provide an incentive to the contractor for earlier completion, but also to provide a disincentive for late completion of a project. Contractors are then presented with the problem of determining the best strategy of bid estimation, including construction cost, time cost, and incentive/disincentive. SHAs are also faced with the problem of placing a maximum and/or minimum on the time bid. To provide users a useful tool to estimate project time more accurately using this advanced method, this study develops a quantified model of the price-time bidding contract. The functional relationship between the construction cost and time duration is developed based on data from the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). The contractor’s construction cost “A” is then combined with the road user cost and incentive/disincentive to determine the optimum low bid price and time. This optimum can then be used by the SHA to set limits on the range of acceptable time bids. Finally, several projects completed by the FDOT will be used to illustrate the validity of this model.     

Budgeting Owner’s Construction Contingency

This paper attempts to find ways to reduce an owner’s construction contingency budget such that just enough contingency is allocated that will allow the owner to deal with uncertainties but at the same time not tie up valuable funds that can be used for other activities. It is suggested that the common practice of allocating a fixed owner contingency (e.g., 10% of the contract value) to all projects contracted out by an owner is not appropriate. Instead, a methodology is proposed whereby the owner (1) analyzes historical project data; (2) identifies the line items that are problematic; (3) takes the necessary measures at the preconstruction stage to streamline these line items with respect to site conditions, time constraints, constructability issues, and project scope; and (4) finally budgets contingency funds based on this information. A case study was conducted to analyze the contingencies budgeted and actually spent by an owner in nine parking lot projects. The findings indicated that a systematic approach such as the methodology proposed in this paper is likely to minimize the owner’s contingency budget.     

Analysis of Federal Design-Build Request for Proposal Evaluation Criteria

This study’s objective is to identify the benefits federal owners are seeking through the design-build process by analysis of research data gathered from 110 requests for proposal (RFP) evaluation plans issued for $1.5 billion of federal work by 11 different agencies. The output from this study was then compared to a 1996 study whose authors sought to analyze the reasons cited by owners to use design-build project delivery. That study included a survey of 108 owners of public and private projects, which represented over $12.5 billion of construction. The goal of comparing the 1996 survey with the results of the new research project is to discover correlations between owner attitudes and the selection criteria identified in government RFPs. The comparison produced some interesting results. First, although owners in 1996 cited schedule as the most significant reason for selecting design-build delivery, the federal RFP content analysis found it to carry a very low average weight. Another finding shows that federal RFPs give price a very heavy weight in the government selection processes, again differing significantly from the previous survey of owner attitudes. Finally, the current study found that the qualifications of the firms and individuals that formed the design-build team were significantly more important than the proposed technical design approach. Thus, this paper concludes that the typical federal agency was looking for a low price from a well-qualified design-build team.     

Probabilistic Approach for Budgeting in Portfolio of Projects

This paper presents a mathematical model for calculating the budgetary impact of increasing the required confidence level in a probabilistic risk assessment for a portfolio of projects. The model provides a rational approach for establishing a probabilistic budget for an individual project in such a way that the budget for a portfolio of projects will meet a required confidence level. The use of probabilistic risk assessment in major infrastructure projects is increasing to cope with major cost overruns and schedule delays. The outcome of the probabilistic risk assessment is often a distribution for project costs. The question is at what level of confidence (i.e., the probability that budget would be sufficient given the cost distribution) should be used for establishing the budget. The proposed method looks at a portfolio of such projects being funded by the same owner. The owner can establish a target probability with respect to its annual budget. The model can help the owner establish confidence level for individual projects and also examine the effect of changing the confidence level of the portfolio budget on the budget and the confidence level of individual projects. The paper is relevant to practitioners because it provides a methodology for establishing confidence levels by the owner agencies in the emerging field of cost risk assessment for infrastructure projects. A numerical example is provided using actual transit project data to demonstrate the model application.     

Owner’s Role in Construction Safety

Despite dramatic improvements in recent decades, the construction industry continues to be one of the industries with the poorest safety records. Recent improvements are due, in part, to the concerted efforts of owners, contractors, subcontractors, and designers. While past safety studies have investigated the roles of contractors, subcontractors, and designers, the owner’s impact on construction safety has not been previously investigated. This paper will present the results of a study on the owner’s role in construction safety. Data were obtained by conducting interviews on large construction projects. The relationship between project safety performance and the owner’s influence was examined, with particular focus on project characteristics, the selection of safe contractors, contractual safety requirements, and the owner’s participation in safety management during project execution. By identifying practices of owners that are associated with good project safety performances, guidance is provided on how owners directly impact safety performance.     

Evaluation of Risk Factors Leading to Cost Overrun in Delivery of Highway Construction Projects

Accurate owner budget estimates are critical to the initial decision-to-build process for highway construction projects. However, transportation projects have historically experienced significant construction cost overruns from the time the decision to build has been taken by the owner. This paper addresses the problem of why highway projects overrun their predicted costs. It identifies the owner risk variables that contribute to significant cost overrun and then uses factor analysis, expert elicitation, and the nominal group technique to establish groups of importance ranked owner risks. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis is also used to investigate any correlation of the percentage of cost overrun with risks, together with attributes such as highway project type, indexed cost, geographic location, and project delivery method. The research results indicate a correlation between the reciprocal of project budget size and percentage cost overrun. This can be useful for owners in determining more realistic decision-to-build highway budget estimates by taking into account the economies of scale associated with larger projects.     

Risk Assessment Model of Tendering for Chinese Building Projects

This paper presents a risk assessment model for tendering of Chinese building projects on the basis of identification and evaluation of the major risk events in the Chinese construction market, investigations and interviews from which the factors inducing the risk events were determined, questionnaires on building projects within China’s borders, and the logistic regression method. The findings show that, to a certain extent, the risk of tendering for projects and the risk of a contracted project can be assessed through analysis of factors such as owner type, source of project financing, existence or lack of past cooperation between contractors and owners, the intensity of competition for tendering, the reasonableness of the bid price, and the degree of support from the contracting company to its projects. The model can serve as a supplementary tool for Chinese contractors in making decisions for project tendering within Chinese borders. At the same time, it is of reference significance for international contractors, enabling them to further understand the risks in the contract market for Chinese building projects.     

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Support Alliance Team Selection

The alliance concept is similar to the design build project delivery system. However, it is denoted by a special form of partnership between the owner and the design-build team, where the owner is very involved in the project. This type of delivery systems is gaining popularity as many infrastructure projects require the owner to order materials ahead of time, before engaging the design-build team in the project. As in design-build, the selection of the engineer-procure-construct team depends not only on the price but also on qualitative factors. This paper lays out the framework that facilitates selecting the best alliance team for a project by quantifying the evaluation factors and combining them into a single score. Using a Monte Carlo simulation and varying all the factors relevant to the decision problem can reveal biases present in the evaluation to assist in making the best possible decision. A case study dealing with a large utility project illustrates this methodology.     

Impact of Change Orders on Small Labor-Intensive Projects

In today’s construction, small projects can be just as important if not more important than the larger projects. However, small projects are usually fast track projects, which often involve overlapping design and construction time. Subsequent modifications may be required for the sections that are already under construction. These disruptions to the ongoing project are labeled as change orders. The impact due to changes has been described as the adverse effect upon the unchanged work due to changes in the contract. For this study, 34 projects were selected to develop a statistical model that estimates the amount of labor efficiency lost due to change orders for small projects. The variables in the final model are percent design related changes, percent owner initiated changes, the ratio of actual peak labor to estimated peak labor, the ratio of actual project duration to estimated project duration, and project manager’s percent time on the project. The results of this paper are of value to owners, electrical and mechanical contractors, and construction managers. The model quantifies the impact of change orders by introducing the most important variables that bring the largest disruptions.     

Below-Average Bidding Method

The low-bid method, typically used for competitive bidding in the United States, may result in a contract with a firm that submits either accidentally or deliberately an unrealistically low-bid price. Such an occurrence hurts both the owner and the contractor by promoting disputes, increased costs, and schedule delays. To address this problem, other countries have adopted bidding methods based on the average of the bids submitted. One such approach is the below-average method where the winning bid is closest to but below the average of all bids. A competitive bidding model for the below-average-bid method is presented and its merits relative to the average-bid method and the low-bid method are explored. The below-average-bid process is investigated analytically and through Monte Carlo simulation. The results of bidding models for the below-average, the average, and the low-bid methods are presented in four easy-to-use nomograms which allow contractors to determine the optimal lump-sum bid price for each method without the need for complicated analysis. A comparison of the three methods provides information and insights to help owners with the difficult choice of a suitable bidding method for the project at hand.     

Study of Real Options with Exogenous Competitive Entry to Analyze Dispute Resolution Ladder Investments in Architecture, Engineering, and Construction Projects

Architecture, engineering, and construction industry participants often find it pragmatic to implement a project-specific dispute resolution ladder (DRL) as a managerial tool to assist in the prompt resolution of claims and change orders (CCOs) that might arise during the project construction phase. This project-specific DRL consists of a single or multiple alternative dispute resolution (ADR) techniques that require capital expenditures to cover the expenses incurred by the owner’s/contractor’s employees and third-party neutrals. If a project-specific DRL is properly chosen, then the capital expenditures are outweighed by the expected benefits from the DRL implementation; namely, prompt resolution of the CCOs without incurring excessive cost overruns on an already financially stressed project budget, as well as avoiding the escalation of the claims to a dispute that requires long protracted litigation for final settlement. Typically, the decision as to which ADR techniques to include in the project-specific DRL is undertaken during the project planning phase prior to the actual occurrence of the CCOs. In this case, the project owner decide to invest in a DRL in exchange for the expected savings in the project. This decision regarding the project-specific DRL is usually done based on the experience of the project parties with the ADR techniques. However, such a decision needs to be guided by a financial tool that allows the project owner to evaluate alternative DRLs and choose the most economically feasible alternative based on the project and ADR characteristics. In this paper, a financial model is developed to evaluate DRL implementations in construction projects by drawing analogies from real option theory with exogenous competitive entry. More specifically, the occurrence of a given CCO will result in a reduction in the value of expected savings in the project due to DRL implementation. This is similar to the reduction in the gross value of a capital investment project in a commercial property due to competitive entry by another similar commercial property developer in the market. At the same time, the CCO resolution due to an effective DRL implementation will allow project owner to recover part of the losses in the expected savings in the project due to the DRL implementation. The model presented in this paper takes into account the characteristics of the various ADR techniques included in the project-specific DRL, and the characteristics of the CCOs occurring during the construction phase of the project. A case study of a real construction project is used to illustrate the practical implementation of the model. The results indicate that for this case project and from a financial point of view, the investment in the chosen project-specific DRL was not worthwhile because of the high uncertainty in the project, and the low effectiveness of the selected DRL. These conditions did not provide the owner with the anticipated advantage of the DRL implementation in reducing the value of the CCOs occurring in the project. At the same time the cost of the DRL implementation exceeded the actual savings attained in the project.     

Owner’s Risks versus Control in Transit Projects

This paper studies the characteristics of different project delivery methods in public transit projects with respect to the owner’s project control and its share in project risks. The most appropriate project delivery method is selected early in the project life cycle based on a number of objectives and criteria set forth by the owner. The ability to manage risk effectively and owner’s control over the project are among the most important factors for selecting the delivery method. These two factors are highly interrelated. This paper discusses the interaction of risk and control in the context of the project delivery method. Results of several interviews with transit authorities are used to ensure the validity of findings. This paper shows that higher control over the project is achieved only if the owner is willing to accept more risks. In other words, there is no delivery method that allows the owner to enjoy high levels of control and minimum risk simultaneously.