Life quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety

The engineering and management of human safety is an important societal objective that includes extensive efforts by governments, both legislative and administrative, to enhance the health and safety of the public. Although the achievement of safety goals depend primarily on individuals and organizations responsible for safety, much support is drawn from expertise in diverse scientific and engineering disciplines. The activities range from structural safety (dams, tunnels, bridges to tall buildings) to safe operation of hazardous industrial installations (energy generation facilities, LNG terminals, petrochemical plants) to transportation systems (airline, rail, car safety) to technologies designed to minimize adverse impacts on the environment. All these activities are crucially concerned with risk: with the likelihood and the probable effects of various measures on life and health. We have developed a unified rationale and a clear basis for effective strategic management of risk across diverse sectors. Safety is an important objective in society but it is not the only one. The allocation of society's resources devoted to safety must be continually appraised in light of competing needs, because there is a limit on the resources that can be expended to extend life. The paper presents the Life Quality Index (LQI) as a tool for the assessment of risk reduction initiatives that would support the public interest and enhance safety and quality of life. The paper provides an intuitive reformulation of the LQI as equivalent to a valid utility function that is consistent with the principles of rational decision analysis. The LQI is further refined to consider the issues of discounting of life years, competing background risks, and population age and mortality distribution. The LQI is applied to quantify the societal willingness-to-pay, which is an acceptable level of public expenditure in exchange for a reduction in the risk of death that results in improved life-quality.     

基于LQI的隧道工程人员安全风险控制决策模型

在社会指数LQI理论的基础上分析得到最优安全成本ICAF,针对我国隧道工程特点提出隧道工程安全风险增强系数,依据ALARP原则建立了基于LQI的隧道工程人员安全风险控制决策模型,并以英国Jubilee线工程为例阐述了基于该模型的隧道工程人员安全风险控制决策流程.     

考虑主观风险态度的建筑结构地震风险决策

针对全寿命周期成本最小准则不能反映决策者主观风险态度的不足,引入效用理论这一经典决策模型探讨风险厌恶态度对地震风险决策的影响。以12栋抗震设计等级不同的办公楼为例,分别从公共决策者风险厌恶视角的抗震设计和私人决策者风险厌恶视角的地震保险投保两个方面,研究了降低风险和转移风险两种行为的最优决策问题。结果表明,最优的抗震设计等级随风险厌恶程度的加大而提升;业主在购买地震保险时,随风险厌恶程度的加大和结构抗震等级的下降,倾向于接受更高的地震保险费用。     

Life quality index revisited

The derivation of the life quality index (LQI) is revisited for a revision. This revision takes into account the unpaid but necessary work time needed to stay alive in clean and healthy conditions to be fit for effective wealth producing work and to enjoyable free time. Dimension analysis consistency problems with the standard power function expression of the LQI are pointed out. It is emphasized that the combination coefficient in the convex differential combination between the relative differential of the gross domestic product per capita and the relative differential of the expected life at birth should not vary between countries. Finally the distributional assumptions are relaxed as compared to the assumptions made in an earlier work by the author. These assumptions concern the calculation of the life expectancy change due to the removal of an accident source. Moreover a simple public acceptance criterion is compared to the LQI criterion.     

Life quality time allocation index – an equilibrium economy consistent version of the current life quality index

The definition the life quality index for a country as originally suggested by Nathwani, Lind and Pandey is based on the gross domestic product (GDP), the expected life in good health at birth, and the fraction of life time the anonymous citizen of the country is occupied with money making work. The LQI is invented to serve as a mean to evaluate how much money that reasonably can be allocated to safety improving investments by simply requiring constancy of the LQI. By choosing that the importance of increments in the two first variables should be measured relative to the current values of the variables themselves, the relative increment of the LQI becomes defined as a convex combination of the two relative increments. The combination parameter is obtained by an optimality argument about the anonymous citizen’s distribution of his or her time between free time and work time. In the original definition this equilibrium economy principle is applied under the assumption that the GDP is directly proportional to the work time fraction. This direct proportionality has been relaxed by the first author in two earlier papers with an essential effect on the combination parameter. The present paper presents a further development casting the definition into dimensionless quantities that make the index get a pure unit of time and not the somewhat obscure unit as a power product of a money unit and a time unit. To avoid confusion, this new variant of the LQI is called the life quality time allocation index (LQTAI). Moreover, the Danish data from the period from 1948 to 2003 show good agreement with the relation between the productivity and the work time as obtained from the optimality argument. The data fitting leads to an estimate of the combination coefficient of c = 0.092 together with a reduction factor of r = 0.92 to be applied to the total life expectation at birth to obtain the expected life in good health. Among other infinitely many choices of (c, r) there are (0.085, 1.0) and (0.1, 0.85).     

The derivation and calibration of the life-quality index (LQI) from economic principles

The life-quality index (LQI) is a versatile tool to support the effective implementation of programs and practices for managing risk to life safety. The LQI allows a transparent and consistent basis for determination of the net benefit arising from projects, programs, standards and policies undertaken at some cost to improve safety or enhance the quality of life. The paper shows that the LQI model is in harmony with well-established principles of economics, utility theory and recent developments to quantify the progress of nations through indicators of human development. The initial calibration of the LQI was based on a simplifying assumption of a linear relation between the GDP and work time. In this paper, we modify the calibration using empirical data for GDP and work time and link the LQI model to well-established economic principles and theory of production. The proposed improvements to the model eliminate a systematic bias associated with estimation of societal willingness to pay for safety. In addition, it provides a rigorous basis for program evaluation to assist decision-makers in directing expenditures where they may most effective.     

The J-Value and Its Role in Evaluating Investments in Fire Safety Schemes

Fire safety engineers endeavour to ensure that a design achieves an adequate level of fire safety. For uncommon buildings, adequate safety cannot be based on precedent and an explicit evaluation of the adequacy of proposed safety features may be required. Commonly, this requires demonstration that the residual risk associated with the design is as low as is reasonably practicable. In those situations, a measure for a safety scheme’s benefit relative to its cost is required, as more efficient safety schemes should be preferred over less efficient ones to maximize the number of lives saved under societal resource constraints. To this end, the J-value has been introduced in other engineering fields as a decision support indicator for assessing the efficacy of safety features. The J-value has been derived from societal welfare considerations (the Life Quality Index) and is adopted in the current paper for applications in fire safety engineering. It is demonstrated herein how the J-value can inform decisions on fire safety, and how it can provide a basis for assessing whether or not a proposed fire safety scheme should be implemented. Future work will focus on its implementation as a tool for assessing the benefit of real life fire safety scheme implementations, such as sprinkler installations.     

Life cycle costing—Theory, information acquisition and application

Especially in the last two decades of an increasingly-competitive business environment, dwindling resources and an ever-increasing need to obtain value for money in all areas of corporate activity, it has become essential that all available resources be used optimally (Griffith, J. W. and Keely, B. J., Cost Engineering, 1978, September/October, 165–168). Physical assets form the basic infrastructure of all businesses and their effective management is essential to overall success. It has thus become essential to plan and monitor assets throughout their entire life cycle, from the development/procurement stage through to eventual disposal. Life cycle costing^∗ is concerned with optimising value for money in the ownership of physical assets by taking into consideration all the cost factors relating to the asset during its operational life. Optimising the trade-off between those cost factors will give the minimum life cycle cost of the asset. This process involves estimation of costs on a whole life basis before making a choice to purchase an asset from the various alternatives available. Life cycle cost of an asset can, very often, be many times the initial purchase or investment cost (Hart, J. M. S., Tetrotechnology Handbook, p. 22, HMSO, London, 1978; Hysom, J. L., Journal of Property Management, 1979, 44, 332–337). It is important that management should realise the source and magnitude of lifetime costs so that effective action can subsequently be taken to control them. This approach to decision making encourages a long-term outlook to the investment decision-making process rather than attempting to save money in the short term by buying assets simply with lower initial acquisition cost. It is suggested project managers should familiarise themselves with what the approach involves, to better appreciate how they might then contribute to the enhanced quality decision making which it makes possible.     

建设项目全寿命周期集成化管理模式的研究

决策阶段开发管理（DM）,实施阶段业主方项目管理（OPM）和运营阶段物业管理（FM）在建设项目传统管理模式中相互独立,导致许多弊端,近年来,许多研究机构尝试运用不同的集成思想和方法,对传统管理模式进行变革,本文提出建设项目全寿命周期集成化管理（LCIM）的概念;提出以运营导向建设的全寿命周期业主方（运营方）管理组织设计的理念,并对全寿命周期集成化管理信息系统（LMIS）的信息模型,系统集成的层次和方法进行了深入的分析和探讨。     

Low Cost Home Ownership Initiatives in the UK

In common with many other countries, the UK has treated owner occupation favourably in comparison with other tenures in terms of tax and subsidy. However, the UK is distinctive in having encouraged the large-scale transfer of dwellings from the public rented sector to home ownership and in having developed a variety of low cost home ownership (LCHO) mechanisms to assist people at the margins into owner occupation. This paper evaluates these LCHO initiatives, considering value for money, sustainability and potential demand. Looking to the future, we see government policy and the level of demand as the most important determinants of the role of LCHO and discuss influences on demand and pointers to government policy.     

PPP项目公众参与机制研究

公众参与是PPP项目成功的重要支撑。基于委托代理理论,结合PPP项目全寿命周期运行特点,以立项决策、竣工验收和运营为重点阶段,探讨公众参与的主体、内容和方式等要素,建立PPP项目公众参与的框架性机制,并提出保障性建议,以供参考。     

城市轨道交通PPP项目VFM定性评价分析——以济青铁路为例

物有所值(VFM)评价作为PPP项目的三项基本评价之一,是操作流程中不可缺少的内容,分为定性和定量两部分,我国目前以定性评价为主。城市轨道交通项目是我国重点发展的公共交通基础设施,对城市规划、经济发展和公众生活都有重要影响,一旦决策失误将会带来巨大损失,因此在项目决策中强调VFM定性评价是非常必要的。VFM定性评价以一系列指标、权重和评分标准为基础,通过评分结果判断PPP模式是否优于传统采购模式。城市轨道交通PPP项目VFM定性评价体系以财政部物有所值指引为基础构建了12项评价指标,利用专家打分法确定了指标权重,并以济青铁路项目为例,应用评价体系对项目进行分析和讨论,验证了评价体系的可操作性和适用性。     

公共项目私人融资新途径——PFI

ＰＦＩ是一种新的公共项目私人融资方式。它鼓励私人部门营建基础设施项目或政府公共项目,并以此为基础提供公共服务的一种区别于传统政府公共项目的出产方式。它能够广泛地适用于许多政府的公共项目领域,在英国该方式已成为政府获得高质量、高效率的政府项目的主要工具。ＰＦＩ的应用有二个基本必须遵循的原则,一是要能够实现安全可靠的经济价值;二是项目的风险能够在政府部门和私人部门之间合理分配。     

BT模式在旧城改造安置房建设工程中的应用

BT模式主要是指业主全权委托工程总承包企业建设某项工程,建设期的资金由工程总承包企业筹措,建设期的风险由工程总承包企业承担。在项目建成后工程总承包企业向业主收款并转让项目的工程建设方式。本文通过某区旧城改造安置房建设工程实例来分析项目采用BT模式的优势。     

Effect of geomechanical properties on Cerchar Abrasivity Index (CAI) and its application to TBM tunnelling

Abrasiveness of rocks plays an important role in the wear of TBM tunnelling. Cerchar Abrasivity Index (CAI) test is the most commonly used method to estimate rock abrasiveness due to its simple, fast test procedure and economic benefits. This study investigated the correlation between CAI and geomechanical properties of igneous and metamorphic rocks. Single and multiple regression analysis were performed and predictive models for the CAI from geomechanical properties were developed. It is found that single parameter alone is not suitable to predict the value of CAI. The result of the multiple regression analysis shows that quartz content is less influencing factor to predict the value of CAI. Also, the correlation between CAI and NTNU’s Cutter Life Index (CLI) was examined and a predictive model for the CLI from CAI and geomechanical properties was suggested. Finally, the influence of CAI on disc cutter life prediction models was investigated and it was found that the variation of CAI has the maximum effect on the predicted disc cutter life in Gehring model.     

Achieving best value in private finance initiative project procurement

The wherewithal of achieving best value in private finance initiative (PFI) projects and the associated problems therein are documented. In the UK, PFI has offered a solution to the problem of securing necessary investment at a time of severe public expenditure restraint. In PFI schemes, the public sector clients must secure value for money, while the private sector service providers must genuinely assume responsibility for project risks. A broad‐based investigation into PFI risk management informs the discussion in this paper. It is based on 68 interviews with PFI participants and a case study of eight PFI projects. The research participants comprised of contractors, financial institutions, public sector clients, consultants and facilities management organizations. The qualitative software Atlas.ti was used to analyse the textual data generated. The analysis showed that the achievement of best value requirements through PFI should hinge on: detailed risk analysis and appropriate risk allocation, drive for faster project completion, curtailment in project cost escalation, encouragement of innovation in project development, and maintenance cost being adequately accounted for. Factors that continue to challenge the achievement of best value are: high cost of the PFI procurement process, lengthy and complex negotiations, difficulty in specifying the quality of service, pricing of facility management services, potential conflicts of interests among those involved in the procurement, and the public sector clients' inability to manage consultants.     

大型公共项目总承包模式混合治理研究

随着中国经济进入新常态,基本建设投资巨量化的特点日益明显,实务界针对这种大型公共项目创造了大标段招标的承发包模式。然而,大型公共项目以大标段招标总承包模式招标缔约后,缔约合同前风险不合理分担或缔约合同后的风险变异容易导致风险回流套牢业主。为此,解构了新形势下大型公共项目总承包模式的“市场—科层”的二元混合治理结构,即业主—总承包商之间通过市场选择的合同治理和总承包商-承建工区之间企业内部的科层治理。在新形势下大型公共项目建设全生命周期过程中的内外二元耦合,据此指出大型公共项目风险回流止逆路径,并拓展了项目治理理论,为工程项目实践提供参考。     

Privatization And Public Participation In Israeli Urban Life

ABSTRACT: It has been argued that when most urban dwellers build private social networks they still fail to participate in public life. This has led to increased urban political paralysis and more socially isolated individuals. The authors test this hypothesis in a survey of middle class condominium residents in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area. The survey area is a low-moderate rise, high-density urban system with a majority of residents living in owner occupied apartments and with 38% of the working population getting to their jobs by public transportation. Data analysis indicates that the hypothesis fails to hold. Central city and suburban residents still make considerable use of the downtown area. These middle class residents participate in public life on the neighborhood level and on the broader metropolitan level. They also have rich private social networks which support a public network.     

工程质量风险的经济学解释与风险防范

工程项目各参与方在不同阶段均面临不同的质量风险,并各自采取不同的质量风险管理决策。首先从新古典经济学角度,基于利益分歧对业主和承包商在工程质量风险管理方面决策进行经济学解释。建设项目业主与承包商之间、政府与项目法人之间的经济关系集中反映在信息的不对称性与契约的不完备性,从信息经济学角度分析建设项目委托代理关系的规律和基本特征,基于委托—代理关系对质量风险管理决策进行经济学解释。从经济学的角度提出了防范工程质量风险的措施。     

Investment decision model of wastewater treatment public–private partnership projects based on value for money

Most existing studies analyse the early decision‐making processes of public–private partnership (PPP) projects from the perspective of the government or investors, as such decisions involve lengthy negotiations and are likely to lead to unfair results. Hence, there is a need for fair and reasonable investment decision‐making methods. This study investigates the investment return system of PPP wastewater treatment projects. The net present value of investment income is considered the investment decision indicator of social capital, while value for money (VFM) is the indicator of government decision‐making. Considering both yield and VFM, the system dynamics method and Vensim software are used to establish the investment decision model. A case study validates the proposed model and predicts a reasonable range of unit prices and concession periods for wastewater treatment through government–enterprise cooperation, to improve the transparency and initial decision fairness of PPP sewage treatment projects.