我国能源安全问题研究——基于模糊综合评价方法

本文从能源供应安全、消费安全和能源生态安全3个方面归纳出17个指标,建立中国能源安全综合评价指标体系,采用熵权法测度评价指标权重,运用模糊综合评价法计算出2000—2013年我国能源安全的综合得分,结果表明,计算期内我国能源安全整体趋势先下降后上升,能源供应安全一直呈现快速下降趋势,能源消费安全整体趋势基本一致,而能源生态安全不断提高。最后提出了提高能源安全的若干建议。     

国内外能源预测模型和能源安全评价体系研究综述

本文综述了国内外构建能源预测模型和能源安全评价体系的现状,分析了现有研究成果的主要特点以及目前存在的不足和缺陷,并在此基础上对针对创新能源预测建模的关键问题进行了分析,以及应注重研究城市能源安全评价指标体系的学术主张。     

中国能源安全预警指标框架体系设计

中国的能源消费在过去几年间迅速增长,各主要能源品种都出现了一定程度的供不应求,这不仅给国内的能源供应安全保障体系带来了沉重的压力,而且已经引起国际社会的普遍关注。能源是保障中国经济的源动力,能源系统出现微小的波动都有可能对经济系统产生重要的影响,因此,我国有必要建立一个能源安全预警系统,为实现稳定、可靠、安全、清洁、经济的能源供应提供保障。中国能源安全预警系统的关键是建立中国能源安全预警的指标框架体系,本文介绍了在开发中国能源安全预警系统中针对指标框架的研究结果。     

能源安全要重视内部因素 强调政策体制保障

中国在2002年又创了石油进口的新高。按目前的趋势,中国将在今后一两年内超过日本而成为世界第二,亚洲最大的石油消费国。石油进口的来源将越来越多地依赖于中东地区。能源安全因关系到国家的经济安全,环境安全和国防安全而受到了中国政府的高度重视。然而,中国缺少对能源安全的全面认识和系统组织。最近爆发的伊拉克战争在中国的能源界兴起了能源安全讨论的热潮。与此同时,中国政府的各部门正在经受着应对“非典型肺炎”这样的社会突发事件的严峻考验。把两者表面上毫不相关的事情结合起来,就会引出这样的问题:中国在能源安全方面有没有形成系统,长远的机制?本文认为保障国家能源安全必须从国内因素开始,即只有采取强力有效的措施和系统化的组织,中国才能应对新的能源安全挑战。在着重分析国内影响能源安全因素的基础上,本文为中国建立长期、全面、有效的能源安全系统提出了一系列政策建议。     

基于组合赋权—集对分析的城市供水安全评价

为更精准地评价城市供水安全,将集对分析法与主客观组合赋权法相结合,建立区域城市供水安全评价模型,即用最小相对信息熵原理确定指标综合权重并耦合到指标联系度中,构建出城市供水安全的组合赋权-集对分析的评价体系,通过五元减法集对势确定城市供水安全等级,并对昆明市2011～2020年的供水安全评价划分安全等级。结果表明,2011～2013年昆明市供水处于安全等级,其中2011、2012年更倾向于基本安全等级;2014～2020年昆明市供水处于非常安全等级但更倾向于安全等级,供水状态相对安全和稳定。所提方法一定程度上解决了城市供水安全评价等级中的不确定性和多指标性问题,为城市供水安全评价提供了一种新思路。     

论中国的能源安全战略

分析了目前中国能源形势及面临的挑战;提出了立足国内是解决能源安全问题的基本思路;并认为通过和平与合作途径,建立稳定可靠的国外能源供应体系,是解决中国能源供应不足的另一战略措施;最后阐述了新的能源安全观。     

基于AHP的北京市能源安全研究与分析

能源是人类社会得以存在和发展的基础,是国民经济发展的命脉。以分析北京市能源现状为出发点,从能源供应安全、能源结构评价、能源环境安全、能源经济安全四个方面考虑,建立了北京市能源安全评价指标体系,采用AHP层次分析法纵向将北京市与其他各省区2007年的能源安全状况进行对比评价,横向评价北京市2003～2007年的能源安全发展趋势,从而得出北京市应重点提高能源供应安全、优化能源结构的结论,并根据所得结论提出加强北京市能源安全的优化方案。     

构建全球合作背景下的中国能源外交方略

能源与能源安全问题是事关我国可持续发展战略的一个十分重要的问题,能否获得稳定的能源供应,确保国家能源安全,将直接影响到我国经济社会发展前景。当前国际形势日益错综复杂,使这一问题显得更加尖锐。本文详细分析了中国能源外交所面临的新形势,指出了中国能源外交战略中的困惑与不足之处,并提出了构建全球合作背景下中国能源外交战略的一些建议。     

资源型城市节能型产业结构构建研究

能源不仅是城市经济发展的命脉,也是发展国民经济和提高人民生活水平的重要保障。中国是一个发展中国家,正经历着工业化和城市化发展的历程。在这一发展过程中,资源型城市面临着一系列需要解决的问题。基于能源安全考虑,资源型城市必须以科学的发展观构建节能型产业结构,才能保证城市经济的健康发展。     

转型时代能源安全问题思考与中国方案

化石能源的利用弊端下能源安全问题日趋复杂化,成为全球共同的挑战。能源体系的清洁、低碳化转型是破解能源安全问题的关键,这主要是由于能源转型促进了三大转变,加强了能源安全:发展模式由资源依赖转向技术依赖,为共享的能源安全奠定了基础;能源生产由矿物开采转向装备制造,创造了新的经济机遇;能源消费进入电气化时代,保障了可持续能源安全。在此背景下,中国必须坚定能源转型的基本路线,正确把握能源安全的新形势,推动落实全球能源安全的“三大转变”,为国际社会,尤其是其他发展中国家提供必要的、可行的能源转型中国方案。     

基于复合系统视角的水安全概念内涵与指标体系研究

日益严峻的水问题使水安全成为近年来的研究热点之一,但对于目前水安全概念内涵和评价指标的认识尚不统一,给水安全评价和风险管控带来困难。在系统梳理有关研究成果的基础上,以问题为导向,基于水安全机理和"经济社会-水"复合系统视角,提出了水安全的概念内涵,构建了相应的评价指标体系,为我国水安全评估和监测预警提供了理论依据。     

Evaluating energy security in the Asia-Pacific region: A novel methodological approach

This paper establishes an ‘energy security assessment instrument’ based on a new and expanded conceptualisation of energy security. The instrument is a systematic interrogative tool for evaluating energy security of individual states or regions. It consists of eleven broad energy security dimensions associated with the current global energy system. These energy security dimensions take into account numerous quantitative and qualitative attributes of each country’s energy security and policy, and include both traditional energy security concerns and many new factors, such as environmental, socio-cultural and technological. Another dimension, largely absent from previous analyses, is the existence of, and the issues addressed in, energy security policy in each country. This instrument serves as an assessment system with which to evaluate energy security in the Asia-Pacific region. The existing studies on energy security in the Asia-Pacific region suffer from serious limitations. No study to date examines regional energy security policies by adopting a more comprehensive energy security definition as a starting point. Most studies also focus on a single country or issue. Even if they examine energy security in major regional economies, they lack critical comparative analysis. The instrument is valuable as it may be utilised to draw a comprehensive map of regional energy security situation, which can also include comparative analysis of energy security characteristics across the Asia-Pacific region. Ultimately, it may be utilised to set up a framework for improved regional energy cooperation with the aim of providing regional leaders with a blueprint for improving regional energy security and policy.     

General sustainability indicator of renewable energy system based on grey relational analysis

This research answers the question of how to measure the sustainability of a renewable energy systems (RESs) as a physical parameter. Renewable energy is considered as a solution for mitigating the energy crisis, climate change and environmental pollution; however, an important problem of its application is that it is very difficult to evaluate the sustainability of RESs. This study develops a general sustainability indicator which is a tool to evaluate sustainability of RESs precisely and comprehensively. Based on the Triple Bottom Line approach, 11 Basic Sustainability Indicators with different dimensions and various units are selected from environmental, economic and social sustainability assessment criteria. In order to deal with the uncertainties in the definition and the assessment of sustainability, the grey regression analysis method is employed to quantify the basic indicators and to aggregate them into the general indicator. In addition, for explaining application of the general indicator, the cases of four RESs in hot‐arid Australia are presented. In the case study, the grey indicator is used to assess the sustainability of four systems with different combinations of grid, solar photovoltaic and wind renewable energy. The final results are compared with the general indicator based on fuzzy sets theory developed in previous studies. It is found that for the case of Australian system, the grey sustainability indicator has a good linear correlation to the fuzzy indicator results. The grey indicator is an effective way to assess the sustainability of RESs and provides a good tool for designers, users, decision makers and researchers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

水资源问题安全化

水资源安全已成为人们关注的核心。提出了水资源安全的定义与研究内容,对水资源安全的性态进行了研究。指出水资源安全系统具有利己性、针对性和公共性。明确了水资源安全的目标,介绍了水资源安全评价的理论与方法。建立了水资源安全评价指标体系,对山西各地市的水资源安全状况进行了评价,提出了相应的建议。     

Index system and methods for comprehensive assessment of cross-border power grid interconnection projects

With the global economy integration and progress in energy transformation, it has become a general trend to surpass national boundaries to achieve wider and optimal energy resource allocations. Consequently, there is a critical need to adopt scientific approaches in assessing cross-border power grid interconnection projects. First, considering the promotion of large-scale renewable energy resources and improvements in system adequacy, a comprehensive assessment index system, including costs, socio-economic benefits, environmental benefits, and technical benefits, is established in this study. Second, a synthetic assessment framework is proposed for cross-border power grid interconnection projects based on the index system comprising cost–benefit analysis, with market and network simulations, iterative methods for indicator weight evaluation, and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) method for the project rankings. Finally, by assessing and comparing three cross-border projects between Europe and Asia, the proposed index system and assessment framework have been proved to be effective and feasible; the results of this system can thus support investment decision-making related to such projects in the future.     

中国城市能源指标体系初探

为揭示中国城市能源发展中存在的共性和特性问题,建立了一套城市能源评价指标体系。基于大量统计和调研数据,对10个典型城市的能源系统进行分析、比较,提出了促进我国城市能源系统可持续发展的建议。     

Indicators of energy security in industrialised countries

Energy security has become a popular catch phrase, both in the scientific arena as well as in the political discussion. Yet, in general the applied concepts of energy security are rather vague. This paper sheds some light on concepts and indicators of energy security. First, we conceptually discuss the issue of energy supply security and explain why it is not to handle by one science alone and what economics may contribute in order to structure the topic. After providing a brief survey of existing attempts to define or measure energy security we suggest an additional dimension along which indicators of energy security may be classified: ex-post and ex-ante indicators. Finally, we illustrate our concept on the basis of several simplified indicators. While ex-post indicators are mostly based on price developments, ex-ante indicators are to a greater extent aimed at illustrating potential problems. Our illustration suggests that it is worthwhile to take into account the market structure along with the political stability of exporting countries.     

基于层次分析法的杭州市水资源安全现状评价及趋势

为确保城市水资源安全,在专家判断基础上,基于层次分析法,从水资源工程安全、经济安全、生活安全、环境安全、可持续发展安全5个方面构建了包含16个评价指标的城市水资源安全的评价指标框架体系。根据系统安全度将城市水资源安全划分为5个等级,利用构建的水资源安全评价指标体系对杭州市2000～2010年水资源安全现状进行了实证分析,并在现状评价的基础上,采用组合预测法构建了各评价指标预测模型对杭州市2011～2015年进行了预测性评价。结果表明,评价结果基本符合实际情况,"十一五"期间杭州市水资源安全表现为良好状态,尚未达到完全适应,制约杭州市未来水资源安全的主要因素在于杭州市水资源工程安全和水资源可持续发展安全两方面,应引起相关部门的高度重视。     

Sustainability assessment of energy technologies via social indicators: Results of a survey among European energy experts

Sustainability assessment of energy technologies oftentimes fails to account for social repercussions and long-term negative effects and benefits of energy systems. As part of the NEEDS¹ project, an expert-based set of social indicators was developed and verified by the European stakeholders with the objective of contributing in the development of social indicators for the assessment of societal effects of energy systems. For this purpose, scientific experts from four sample countries France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland were interviewed to assess 16 different energy systems on a specific stakeholder reviewed indicator set. The indicator set covers the four main criteria: “security and reliability of energy provision; “political stability and legitimacy”; “social and individual risks” and “quality of life”. This article will review the process of indicator development and assessment and highlight results for today's most prominent and future energy technologies and some likely to make an impact in the future. Expert judgments varied considerably between countries and energy systems, with the exception of renewable technologies, which were overall positively assessed on almost all evaluation criteria.