基于数据挖掘的仿真模型参数修正

针对工业仿真数学模型参数估计实践中的难点,提出了通过数据挖掘来修正模型参数的新方法。从实际生产的大量数据中挖掘样本,通过数学方法计算模型参数,针对包含噪声的工业生产数据主要采用改进了最小二乘方法来修正参数;根据工业生产数据不完全及常见分布特点,采用分段组合修正参数的方法;通过实际生产的动态过程的历史数据挖掘来估计动态特性的相关参数,模型参数修正与数据挖掘过程交互引导,来缩小海量工业数据中的挖掘范围及提高参数修正所需样本数据的充分性,并建立两者之间互相协调的网络模型。实际案例验证了方法在工程项目中的有效性和实用性,表明这种方法能大幅提高仿真精度     

A parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology applied to a street canyon air pollution model

Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM^®). To assess the predictive validity of the model, the data is split into an estimation and a prediction data set using two data splitting approaches and data preparation techniques (clustering and outlier detection) are analysed. The sensitivity analysis, being part of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to successfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified.     

基于灰色神经网络建模的水质参数预测

针对水质参数预测过程中样本数据少的特点,结合灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型和BP神经网络模型,提出灰色新陈代谢BP神经网络组合模型。用灰色新陈代谢模型群的数据集作为BP神经网络的学习测试样本,解决了BP网络需要大量样本才能较好地逼近非线性函数的问题。实验表明,与普通BP网络、灰色新陈代谢模型比较,灰色新陈代谢BP神经网络组合模型的预测精度更高,能够应用于水质参数的预测。     

基于辅助模型和数据滤波的伪线性回归系统参数估计方法

针对伪线性输出误差回归系统的辨识模型新息信息向量存在不可测变量的问题,首先通过构造一个辅助模型,用辅助模型的输出代替未知中间变量,推导得到的基于辅助模型的递推最小二乘参数估计算法计算量较大,但算法的辨识效果不佳。进一步采用估计的噪声模型对系统观测数据进行滤波,使用滤波后的数据进行参数估计,从而推导提出了基于数据滤波的递推最小二乘参数估计算法。仿真结果表明,所提算法能够有效估计伪线性回归线性输出误差系统的参数。     

基于GDAL开源库的流域地貌特征提取

GDAL是一个在X/MT许可协议下读写栅格、矢量空间数据的开源库,针对水文学上流域地貌特征提取研究中与栅格、矢量数据的频繁交互,引入GDAL地理空间开源库。分析GDAL模型库结构,空间数据打开、读写及转换等数据交互常用接口,在底层将上述接口与地貌参数提取算法无缝耦合。在.Net平台上,利用轻型SharpMap开源空间数据渲染控件作为显示窗体,开发独立地貌参数提取应用程序;在ArcGIS平台上通过ArcPy脚本语言包搭建地貌参数提取工具箱,通过图解建模工具可以将其中的工具与ArcGIS相关工具进行组合,构建一键地貌提取模型,为流域地貌特征的提取计算提供一条简便实用的技术路径。     

Acclimatization model of an aerobic bioreactor for the treatment of toxic wastewater

This work proposes a mathematical model for the acclimatization process of a bioreactor treating toxic wastewater. Experimental data was used to identify the changing kinetic parameters of the model as acclimatization progresses. It was found that only one key parameter, the specific biomass growth rate function, changed during the acclimatization process. Therefore, an acclimatization model was proposed to explain the changes of this parameter.     

数据仓库技术在飞参数据处理中的应用

用面向对象的方法来设计和描述飞参数据仓库的多维模式，实现了基于数据仓库技术的飞参数据处理系统。该系统能够有效地对庞大的飞参数据进行深层分析，为飞参数据的管理与处理探索了一种有效的模式。。     

基于参数反演的网络舆情传播趋势预测——以新浪微博为例

针对现有的舆情传播模型研究与实际舆情数据结合较少以及难以从舆情大数据中挖掘舆情传播内在规律的问题,提出一种基于实际网络舆情大数据采用神经网络的舆情传播模型参数反演算法。改进经典SIR传染病传播模型,构建一种网络舆情传播模型,基于该模型对实际案例进行参数反演,预测网络舆情的后续传播趋势,并与马尔可夫预测模型对比,所提算法可以精确预测舆情的具体热度值。实验结果表明,所提算法在预测性能上具有一定的优越性,可以用于网络突发事件传播的数据拟合、过程模拟和趋势预测。     

2450‐MHz microwave ablation temperature simulation using temperature‐dependence feedback of characteristic parameters

Temperature predictions of microwave ablation (MWA) are currently restricted by the specific temperature‐dependent data of tissue characteristic parameters. To address this issue, a new parameter feedback method based on temperature simulations and single‐thermometry measurements was presented. Experimental data of 2450‐MHz microwave antenna was obtained from ex vivo porcine livers. A temperature distribution model was constructed, and the contributions of characteristic parameters were acquired by the sensitivity analysis method. Subsequently, parameter feedbacks were conducted based on a minimization of the errors between numerical data and single‐thermometry measurements. The temperature distribution model was then optimized using the feedback parameters. Finally, temperature measurements were compared with simulation data to validate the accuracy of the model. According to the temperature distribution model with parameter feedback, the averages of maximum error, average error, as well as SD between the simulation temperatures and the measurements were 2.952, 1.323, and 0.852°C, respectively. The simulated and measured temperature changes were generally in good agreement. The proposed method can be useful in MWA temperature simulations to improve temperature prediction accuracy.     

基于DMA与特征划分的多源文本主题模型

针对传统主题模型在挖掘多源文本数据集信息时存在主题发现效果不佳的问题,设计一种基于狄利克雷多项式分配（DMA）与特征划分的多源文本主题模型。以DMA模型为基础,放宽对预先输入的主题数量的限制,为每个数据源分配专有的主题分布参数,使用Gibbs采样算法估计每个数据源的主题数量。同时,对每个数据源分配专有的噪音词分布参数以及主题-词分布参数,采用特征划分方法区分每个数据源的特征词和噪音词,并学习每个数据源的用词特征,避免噪音词集对模型聚类的干扰。实验结果表明,与传统主题模型相比,该模型能够保留每个数据源特有的词特征,具有更好的主题发现效果及鲁棒性。     

Study on joint Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation method of GTD model

The Bayesian method is applied to the joint model selection and parameter estimation problem of the GTD model. An algorithm based on RJ-MCMC is designed. This algorithm not only improves the model order selection and parameter estimation accuracy by exploiting the priori information of the GTD model, but also solves the mixed parameter estimation problem of the GTD model properly. Its performance is tested using numerical simulations and data generated by electromagnetic code. It is shown that it gives good model order selection and parameter estimation results, especially for low SNR, closely-spaced components and short data situations.     

不等精度数据融合的最优权值与参数估计方法

对测量数据进行融合处理是提高数据处理精度的一个十分有效的方法。本文使用引入加权因子的方法,对不等精度测量数据融合处理的最优加权与参数估计的问题进行了研究。对于线性回归模型,从理论上证明了,最优融合权值由数据的精度唯一确定,这与经典的Gauss-Markov定理是一致的;对于非线性回归模型,在理论上获得了最优融合权值的计算方法,给出了实际数据融合处理的最优权值与参数估计算法,并且证明了非线性模型的不等精度数据融合的最优权值,不但与数据本身精度相关联,而且与模型的结构、模型的导数相关联,则在此时经典Gauss-Markov定理不再成立。通过算例进行对比验证,证明了所提方法的有效性。     

Sensitivity analysis of microbial growth parameter distributions with respect to data quality and quantity by using Monte Carlo analysis

Nowadays, most of the mathematical models used in predictive microbiology are deterministic, i.e. their model output is only one single value for the microbial load at a certain time instant. For more advanced exploitation of predictive microbiology in the context of hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) and risk analysis studies, stochastic models should be developed. Such models predict a probability mass function for the microbial load at a certain time instant. An excellent method to deal with stochastic variables is Monte Carlo analysis. In this research, the sensitivity of microbial growth model parameter distributions with respect to data quality and quantity is investigated using Monte Carlo analysis. The proposed approach is illustrated with experimental growth data. There appears to be a linear relation between data quality (expressed by means of the standard deviation of the normal distribution assumed on experimental data) and model parameter uncertainty (expressed by means of the standard deviation of the model parameter distribution). The quantity of data (expressed by means of the number of experimental data points) as well as the positioning of these data in time have a substantial influence on model parameter uncertainty. This has implications for optimal experiment design.     

基于特征融合卷积神经网络的车型精细识别

为解决现有车型精细识别方法中存在识别精度低、模型参数规模大等问题,提出一种基于特征融合卷积神经网络的车型精细识别方法。设计两个独立网络(UpNet、DownNet)分别用于提取车辆正面图像的上部和下部特征,在融合网络(FusionNet)中进行特征融合,实现车型的精细识别。相较于现有的车型精细识别方法,该方法在提高识别精度的同时,有效压缩了模型参数规模。在基准数据集CompCars下进行大量实验的结果表明,该方法的识别精度可达98.94%,模型参数大小仅为4.9 MB。     

Task analysis for computer-aided design (CAD) at a keystroke level

The purpose of this research was to develop a new model to describe and predict a computerized task. AutoCAD was utilized as the experimental tool to collect operating procedure and time data at a keystroke level for a computer aided design (CAD) task. Six undergraduate students participated in the experiment. They were required to complete one simple and one complex engineering drawing. A model which characterized the task performance by software commands and predicted task execution time using keystroke-level model operators was proposed and applied to the analysis of the dialogue data. This task parameter model adopted software commands, e.g. LINE, OFFSET in AutoCAD, to describe the function of a task unit and used up to five parameters to indicate the number of keystrokes, chosen function for a command and ways of starting and ending a command. Each task unit in the task parameter model can be replaced by a number of primitive operators as in the keystroke level model to predict the task execution time. The observed task execution times of all task units were found to be highly correlated with the task execution times predicted by the keystroke level model. Therefore, the task parameter model was proved to be a usable analytical tool for evaluating the human-computer interface (HCI).     

A comparative study of nonparametric estimation in Weibull regression: A penalized likelihood approach

The Weibull distribution is popularly used to model lifetime distributions in many areas of applied statistics. This paper employs a penalized likelihood method to estimate the shape parameter and an unknown regression function simultaneously in a nonparametric Weibull regression. Four methods were considered: two cross-validation methods, a corrected Akaike information criterion, and a Bayesian information criterion. Each method was evaluated based on shape parameter estimation as well as selecting the smoothing parameter in a penalized likelihood model through a simulation study. Adapting a lower-dimensional approximation and deriving confidence intervals from Bayes models of the penalized likelihood, the comparative performances of methods using both censored and uncensored data were examined for various censoring rates. The methods are applied to a real data example of lung cancer.     

基于EFAST方法的SEBS模型参数全局敏感性分析

应用高效、稳健的EFAST方法,以黑河流域盈科绿洲站为例,从3个方面对SEBS模型的参数敏感性进行了分析:分别以感热通量(H)、潜热通量(λE)、蒸发比(fr)作为SEBS模型的输出结果,分析其对12个输入参数的敏感性;利用气象数据驱动模型,分析H、λE和fr对6个地表特征参数的敏感性;分析了参数取值范围对敏感性分析结果的影响。研究结果表明:H、λE与fr都对参考高度处的气温和风速、地表温度以及植被特征参数的敏感性较高。参数间相互作用对H、λE的间接影响很小,而对fr的影响较大。当气象输入参数确定时,6个地表参数中地表温度对模型输出的直接贡献最大,其主敏感度指数接近0.6。参数采样范围不同时,模型输入参数的敏感性表现不同。     

Robust and efficient map-to-image registration with line segments

This work investigates map-to-image registration for planar scenes in the context of robust parameter estimation. Registration is posed as the problem of estimating a projective transformation which optimally aligns transformed model line segments from a map with data line segments extracted from an image. Matching and parameter estimation is solved simultaneously by optimizing an objective function which is based on M-estimators, and depends on overlap and the weighted orthogonal distance between transformed model segments and data segments. An extensive series of registration experiments was conducted to test the performance of the proposed parameter estimation algorithm. More than 200 000 registration experiments were run with different objective functions for 12 aerial images and randomly corrupted maps distorted by randomly selected projective transformations. Received: 10 August 2000 / Accepted: 29 January 2001     

Model-based cardiac diagnosis of pulmonary embolism

A minimal cardiac model has been shown to accurately capture a wide range of cardiovascular system dynamics commonly seen in the intensive care unit (ICU). However, standard parameter identification methods for this model are highly non-linear and non-convex, hindering real-time clinical application. An integral-based identification method that transforms the problem into a linear, convex problem, has been previously developed, but was only applied on continuous simulated data with random noise. This paper extends the method to handle discrete sets of clinical data, unmodelled dynamics, a significantly reduced data set theta requires only the minimum and maximum values of the pressure in the aorta, pulmonary artery and the volumes in the ventricles. The importance of integrals in the formulation for noise reduction is illustrated by demonstrating instability in the identification using simple derivative-based approaches. The cardiovascular system (CVS) model and parameter identification method are then clinically validated on porcine data for pulmonary embolism. Errors for the identified model are within 10% when re-simulated and compared to clinical data. All identified parameter trends match clinically expected changes. This work represents the first clinical validation of these models, methods and approach to cardiovascular diagnosis in critical care.     

电站锅炉过热器系统动态建模及现场数据仿真

基于机理分析法建立了电站锅炉过热器系统的集总参数模型,反映了过热器出口主蒸汽压力、温度和流量的动态特性。结合实际运行数据拟合求取了模型所需参数,无需对实际系统进行扰动实验。采用多项式和最小二乘法拟合了一定范围内水和水蒸气的物理性质计算公式,利用机组大范围变负荷条件下的实测数据对模型进行了验证仿真。结果表明,该模型的输出与实际运行数据趋势基本一致,能够用于在线实时仿真。