我国成品油定价机制改革中的若干问题研究

2008年12月18日国务院发布了《关于实施成品油价格和税费改革的通知》,2009年5月8日国家发改委公布了《石油价格管理办法（试行）》,我国成品油定价机制改革向着市场化的道路又迈出了重要一步。这对于完善我国成品油价格的形成机制、合理调节社会供求、维护国内成品油市场稳定运行具有重要意义。但此次改革仅是我国成品油价格渐进式改革中的一步,还存在诸如浮动规则尚未完全明确、价格管制办法有待进一步完善、生产企业成本核算不够健全、生产企业利润调控机制急需改进、成品油税费改革未能与资源环保类税种衔接、消费税征管环节需要调整、成品油批发市场尚未开放、国内石油市场高度垄断格局仍未改变等问题,有待不断改进和完善。在继续完善成品油价格形成机制的同时,改革的关键是要协调好各利益相关者之间的关系,即政府与市场、企业与企业（垄断与竞争）、企业利益与民众利益之间的关系。要推动政府职能由直接制定价格向间接调控转变;国内市场的进一步开放是成品油定价与国际接轨的基石,要打破原有的垄断局面,切实开放成品油批发市场;同时逐步放松对油源的控制。     

国家发展改革委有关负责人就调整成品油价格问题答记者问

问：请介绍一下这次调整成品油价格的背景？ 答：这次成品油价格调整主要是受国际市场影响。去年年初，国务院已经确定成品油价格改革的基本目标，就是在实现原油价格与国际市场接轨的基础上，理顺国内成品油价格。     

对我国成品油定价机制改革的思考与建议

我国现行成品油定价机制采用成本加成的定价模式,能够反映国际油价的变化,实现与国际油价间接接轨,这抑制了成品油价格的过度波动,保障了炼油企业的利润,但是并未能反映出国内的实际供需形势,市场机制的资源配置、自动调节能力并未充分发挥。文章首先对我国成品油定价机制存在的问题进行了深入分析,然后通过欧美和韩日等地区的成品油定价机制的比较,给出了成品油价格规制的影响因素以及实行价税分离,利用税收调控成品油生产与消费的政策启示,最后对改革我国成品油定价机制提出了五点政策建议。     

我国正在研究成品油新定价机制

2012年2月7日,国家发展与改革委员会有关负责人就国内成品油价格形成机制内容和推出时间问题对媒体表示,将在现行体制机制框架内进一步完善现行成品油价格形成机制,目前改革思路正在研究论证过程中,待各方面意见基本达     

我国成品油价格形成机制改革演变过程、现状及建议

成品油价格形成机制不能仅仅等同于定价机制,定价机制只是价格形成机制的核心,而成品油价格形成机制改革是包括定价机制改革在内的一系列改革措施。我国成品油价格形成机制改革是一个长期过程,1998年以后,国家在成品油价格形成机制改革方面步伐明显加快,每一次重大改革不仅在成品油定价方面做出一定的改革和调整,而且还出台了一系列综合配套措施。现行成品油价格形成机制具有其积极的一面,例如逐步走向市场化,扭转了生产企业在高油价下严重亏损的局面,培育了市场主体,提高了透明度等;当然同时也存在不足之处,如现有定价机制上调和下降的起点不平等,为成品油零售价"易涨难落"创造了条件;带有一定的"时滞性";容易受到国际原油价格的被动影响,不能真实反映国内市场的供需状况;"非成本"因素比重过高等。成品油价格形成机制改革必须坚持市场化原则、竞争性原则、政府适当干预原则、国际化原则、协调性原则和透明化原则。建议国家进一步完善现行成品油价格形成机制,进一步加大公开透明度,逐步打破原油和成品油流通领域的垄断经营格局;建立健全相关法律法规体系和财政、货币、税收政策;加强国际石油市场话语权,规避油价大幅波动带来的风险。     

国内成品油价格与国际原油价格对我国CPI影响对比研究——基于协整检验和误差修正模型

经济危机以来受诸多因素的影响CPI波动十分频繁,油价波动与CPI变化的关系越来越受到关注。理论和实证是研究国际原油价格、国内成品油价格和我国居民消费物价指数(CPI)的关系的重要方法。本文以油价波动对CPI影响的传导路径为理论基础,以协整—误差修正模型为实证研究手段,将国际原油价格和国内成品油价格对我国CPI的影响进行比较研究,具体测量两者影响的差异。结果表明:当期的国际原油价格变化对我国CPI的影响比当期的国内成品油价格变化对我国CPI的影响大,前一期的国内成品油价格变化对我国CPI的影响比前一期的国际原油价格变化对我国CPI的影响大;从长期看,两者的影响叠加效应会使CPI的波动进一步加剧。在此基础上,提出了将油价波动"内化"于物价波动体系中的初步构想。     

当前成品油市场分析

进入3月份,市场对成品油需求开始回升,对成品油价格机制改革和后期价格上涨的预期较大,促使国内油品资源供应趋紧,价格上涨压力较大。当前国际石油产品价格仍在高位振荡。为缓解国内外价差带来的各种矛盾,提高国内成品油价格是最直接有效的办法。但考虑到下游行业的承受能力,尤     

国家为何再次调整成品油价格——发展改革委有关负责人答记者问

5月24日，经国务院批准，国家发展改革委员委提高了国内成品油价格。而不到两个月前，成品油价格已经上调过一次。国家为何再次调整成品油价格？记者采访了发展改革委有关负责人。     

基于ISM方法的我国成品油价格影响因素研究

综合影响我国成品油价格的因素及因素链,借助ISM分析方法将影响因素体系划分成多级递阶模型进行分层次分析,找出影响成品油价格形成机制的深层原因、中层原因、表层原因以及根源,针对不同层次的影响因素,提出创新发展思路,以期为我国成品油价格形成机制的改革完善提供决策依据。     

成品油管道能源管理系统的研究

成品油在管道输送过程中,沿线泵机组在管道运行中要消耗电力。结合成品油管道能源管理的国内、外现状,对成品油管道能源管理过程中存在的问题进行了分析总结,并根据能源管理工作的总体目标和成品油管道的运营特点,设计了成品油管道的能源管理系统,并阐述了其主要研究内容。     

India's oil policy: The dilemma for self-sufficiency in refining capability

India is likely to be a net oil importer in the foreseeable future and any additional refining capacity will run essentially on imported crudes. It is not clear that self-sufficiency in indigenous refining capability will be the least-cost option. Product price levels in the international market and quality of crude oils available for import are among the major factors that will influence refinery-investment decisions. It may be desirable for India to negotiate a suitable petroleum products procurement contract with productsurplus nations in the region.     

An aggregate petroleum consumption model

This paper presents an aggregative model of US consumption of petroleum and products, of a type which might potentially be used to derive short-term forecasts of US petroleum consumption and imports. The model attempts to separate income- and weather-related changes from those induced by changes in relative prices, with emphasis on the dynamic path of consumption responses to price changes. Estimation results suggest that there are still significant price effects six years after a change in the relative price of petroleum.     

国际石油市场开发与竞争格局分析

对世界石油工业的变迁进行了分析，从石油经济学的角度评估了发展中国家在石油领域的国际合作，其中既包括单边合作，也包括多边合作及未来合作走向。阐述了产油国投资环境的发展。介绍了产油国石油领域的改革开放政策。说明邻国之间只要有合作开发石油的诚意，其合作潜力不可限量，发展中国家只要采取切实可行的步骤扩大开放，石油勘探开发蓬勃发展的势头将会在克服障碍中保持下去。最后分析了石油输出国组织在稳定油价和石油下游工业发展方面正发挥着越来越重要的作用。     

中国能源市场形势分析及预测

2004年能源生产快速增长,需求十分旺盛,主要能源产品进口大幅增加,出口明显减少,能源价格大幅攀升。2005年能源需求增速将有所回落,能源供求形势将比2004年有较大缓减。预计全年发电量同比增长12％左右,煤炭产量同比增长8.5％左右,成品油表观消费量同比增长10％左右。煤炭和电力价格仍呈上升趋势,国际油价波动幅度将有所放缓。建议推进能源价格形成机制改革,建立和逐步完善能源产品储备制度,重视高耗能产品的国际贸易。     

Exploring asymmetric behavior pattern from Indian oil products prices using NARDL and GHSOM approaches

The present work endeavors to explore the potential asymmetries in the pricing of oil products in India where prices are not only affected by the crude oil price changes in the international markets but are also subject to government interventions. In order to protect domestic consumers from this volatility, historically the government of India tried to control the domestic price of petroleum products by cross subsidization and giving subsidies. In this paper, we analyze the impact of crude oil price on domestic oil prices by applying nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) and Growing Hierarchical Self-Organizing Map (GHSOM) approaches for the period of April, 2005–July, 2014. The GHSOM has been explored through pattern analysis on the asymmetric behavior using similarity measures. From the study it can be interpreted that the prices of products left to be determined by the market exhibit a strong asymmetry. However, pricing of the products that are monitored and controlled by the government do not exhibit any such asymmetry. Hence, the question still remains – should the government intervene in pricing petroleum products when monopolistic attitudes of large oil companies are detrimental to the interest of retail consumers?     

How the removal of energy subsidy affects general price in China: A study based on input–output model

In China, most energy prices are controlled by the government and are under-priced, which means energy subsidies existing. Reforming energy subsidies have important implications for sustainable development through their effects on energy price, energy use and CO₂ emission. This paper applies a price-gap approach to estimate China's fossil-fuel related subsidies with the consideration of the external cost. Results indicate that the magnitude of subsidies amounted to CNY 1214.24 billion in 2008, equivalent to 4.04% of GDP of that year. Subsidies for oil products are the largest, followed by subsidies for the coal and electricity. Furthermore, an input–output model is used to analyze the impacts of energy subsidies reform on different industries and general price indexes. The findings show that removal of energy subsidies will have significant impact on energy-intensive industry, and consequently push up the general price level, yet with a small variation. Removing oil products subsidies will have the largest impact, followed by electricity, coal and natural gas. However, no matter which energy price increases, PPI is always the most affected, then GDP deflator, with CPI being the least. Corresponding compensation measures should be accordingly designed to offset the negative impact caused by energy subsidies reform.     

Effects and mechanism of influence of China's resource tax reform: A regional perspective

China's resource tax reform, beginning with Xinjiang as a pilot area in June 2010, marked a new stage in the progression of China's resource tax system. Based on the 2007 social accounting matrix (SAM) for Xinjiang, constructed by ourselves, this paper takes a regional perspective on China's resource tax reform to quantitatively calculate its degree of influence and qualitatively analyze its mechanism of influence by adopting an energy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a SAM price model. The results show that the main significance of the reform lies in bolstering local government finances rather than energy conservation or carbon reduction. This is because revenue will be transferred from resource enterprises and the central government to the local government, while simultaneously the low tax rate, narrow tax scope and unreasonable price mechanism will combine to prevent the reform from reaching its environmental goals. Promoting resource price mechanism reform and deepening resource tax reform will be two key elements of China's future energy strategies. Because resource enterprises will bear the increased burden caused by the reform, the degree of sectoral price increases will be limited; therefore, the fear that resource tax reform will push up inflation is unnecessary and should not be a barrier to reform.     

An empirical analysis of petroleum demand for Indonesia: An application of the cointegration approach

This paper uses selection criteria from various models in a bounds testing approach to cointegration to estimate the price and income elasticities of demand for total petroleum products (gasoline and diesel) and gasoline share in total products in Indonesia. The results suggest that both total products and gasoline share estimates are more responsive to changes in income than changes in the real price of petroleum products. These results have important policy implications as they suggest that policy makers may need to use market-based pricing policies and other policies such as public enlightenment in addition to regulations like minimum energy efficiency standards to promote efficiency and conservation and curb the rising consumption of petroleum products in Indonesia.     

国际石油价格及趋势预测

国际石油价格受多方面因素影响。供求关系决定远期的价格走势,而政治事件等突发因素则直接干预影响近期价格。本文从供给、需求、政治等方面分析了影响国际油价的因素,并结合实际情况对2007年国际油价进行了预测。     

Comparison of China's oil import risk: Results based on portfolio theory and a diversification index approach

In recent years, the international oil price has fluctuated violently, bringing about huge risk for the international oil trade. In fact, the risk of crude oil and petroleum product imports is different because of the different import origins and prices. Which import risk is lower for China? From the perspective of oil supply security, how should China portfolio crude oil and petroleum product imports to minimize its oil import risk? Using portfolio theory and a diversification index approach, this paper compares and analyzes the supply, price and transport risks of crude oil and petroleum product imports. Our results show that the following: (1) Specific risk (diversification risk) and marine transport risk of China's petroleum product imports are lower than that of crude oil imports. (2) The average rate of return of China's petroleum product imports is higher than that of crude oil imports. Moreover, the average import price variance of petroleum product imports is lower than that of crude oil imports. Thus, the systematic risk (price risk) of petroleum products is lower too. Therefore, from the perspective of oil supply security, China should increase petroleum product imports to decrease its oil import risk.