Role of Effluent Permit Trading in Total Maximum Daily Load Programs: Overview and Uncertainty and Reliability Implications

Many jurisdictions in the United States are currently preparing total maximum daily load (TMDL) programs for stream segments that come under Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act. Among the options being considered by many state pollution control agencies is that of permit trading, otherwise known as permit transfers, transferable permits, emissions trading, bubbles, pollution rights, marketable effluent permits, and transferable discharge permits. Under such programs, a permit to discharge into a watercourse, issued as part of a wasteload allocation program, is treated as a marketable commodity. This paper presents a qualitative discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of permit trading in the context of a TMDL program, and discusses the circumstances that favor it. The paper also presents hypothetical quantitative findings to illustrate the circumstances under which a regional administrator might wish to adopt a program of permit trading, and if so, what type of permits would suit it best.     

Applying the First-Order Error Analysis in Determining the Margin of Safety for Total Maximum Daily Load Computations

There are significant uncertainties associated with certain aspects of the total maximum daily load (TMDL) estimation. Selection of the “margin of safety (MOS)” term is typically made by subjectively assigning to it a small percentage (5–10%) of the TMDL load. To introduce some objectivity into the MOS estimation, the first-order error analysis (FOEA) was utilized to quantify the MOS term in the TMDL formulation. A case study, which was based on a previous study entitled “Nitrate TMDL Development for Muddy Creek/Dry River, Virginia,” is presented in this paper. Besides computational efficiency, one of the major advantages of FOEA is its capability of determining the relative importance of the various parameters that contribute to the overall variance of the model output. Precipitation was found by far to be the most dominant source of uncertainty. Furthermore, a relationship was established to link the pollutant loads with the FOEA output concentrations. The results from testing different TMDL allocation scenarios demonstrate that with the increase of relative percentage of nonpoint sources load reduction in the total load reduction, the portion needed to be reserved for MOS increases as well. The MOS term can be related to the variability in rainfall and therefore would be different for different locations in the country. In summary, as a practical, less subjective and reliable approach to TMDL uncertainty analysis, the use of the FOEA is considered as a viable alternative to the current simple explicit and implicit methods in estimating the MOS term for TMDL calculations.     

Assessing the Impacts of Nutrient Load Uncertainties on Predicted Truckee River Water Quality

This study examined the effects of uncertain model boundary conditions on dissolved oxygen (DO) predictions for the lower Truckee River, Nevada using an augmented version of the EPA’s Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program Version 5 (WASP5) that included periphyton, or attached algae, in eutrophication kinetics. Uncertainty analyses were performed on selected organic nitrogen (ON) and carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand boundary conditions using Monte Carlo techniques. The stochastic model was run using boundary concentrations assigned from observed probability distributions. Ranges of simulated values were used to construct confidence intervals, the magnitudes of which indicated the uncertainty associated with model predictions. Uncertainty in agricultural ditch return concentrations had minimal effects on in-stream model predictions, as predicted values of daily minimum and maximum DOs, daily average ON, and periphyton biomass all failed to show significant variability as a result of ditch concentration uncertainty. This result indicates that while ditch return nutrient loads are not trivial, their exact concentrations are not needed to make relatively accurate predictions of in-stream DO. However, uncertainty in the upstream ON boundary did result in significant uncertainty during summer months with regard to in-stream model predictions of ON, periphyton biomass, and DO. The model is clearly more sensitive to changes in this boundary than to changes in agricultural ditch concentrations.     

Spatial-Dynamic Modeling of Algal Biomass in Lake Erie: Relative Impacts of Dreissenid Mussels and Nutrient Loads

Over the past several decades, reductions in phytoplankton stocks and increased water clarity in Lake Erie have resulted from phosphorus load abatement and the introduction of zebra (Dreissena polymorpha) and quagga mussels (D. bugensis). The relative impacts of these developments and their implications for lake management have remained difficult to delineate. To address this issue, we numerically model the complex biophysical interactions occurring in Lake Erie using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model that is extended to include dreissenid mussel and zooplankton algorithms. The model reasonably simulates longitudinal trends in water quality as well as the dynamics of central basin hypoxia. Phosphorus is the limiting nutrient through the euphotic zone and its control decreases the algal growth rate and biomass ( ～ 55–60%). Filter feeding by dreissenid mussels also decreases algal biomass ( ～ 25–30%), simultaneously stimulating increased net algae growth through enhanced algal consumption and subsequent phosphorus recycling. Effective recycling implies that algae stocks are ultimately regulated by external phosphorus loads. Returning phosphorus loads to pre-abatement 1960s levels, in the presence of dreissenid mussels, results in a western basin algae concentration of ～ 0.7?mg?dry?weight?L?1 with a potential for nuisance algae growth.     

Surface Analysis of Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Response to Different Nutrient and Sediment Loads

Based on a set of Chesapeake Bay Estuarine Model (CBEM) scenarios, a three-dimensional response surface of a water quality index, such as chlorophyll concentration, versus a pair of loading constituents, e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus, is constructed. The responses of water quality, such as dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll, and water clarity, to nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads are analyzed. From the response surface, a water quality response is estimated under loading conditions beyond that of a limited set of scenarios. Response surfaces may be used to determine the possible universe of nutrient and sediment load reductions needed to obtain a particular water quality standard and to examine the tradeoffs among nutrient and sediment load reductions that achieve the same water quality objective.     

Optimal Wasteload Allocation Procedure for Achieving Dissolved Oxygen Water Quality Objectives. II: Optimal Load Control

This paper presents the development of an efficient strategy for achieving in-stream dissolved oxygen (DO) water quality standards (WQSs) via optimized point-load control strategies using the adjoint method. To this end, a least-squares-type objective function is formulated that measures the difference between desired (WQSs) and current DO concentrations at strategically selected monitoring points in the domain. The goal is to minimize the difference between actual DO concentration and the WQS, hence allowing time-variant loadings to utilize the assimilative capacity of the receiving water body at an optimal level. Time-variant discharge rates for a number of discharge locations are considered as control parameters, while different zone-specific critical DO levels are imposed as constraints. The selection of the control is kept flexible and a number of different scenarios are tested. First, only carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand is used, which allows for a reduction of the number of equations that need to be solved. In the other tests, all constituents are switched on and different variables at each load node are selected as a control by first varying the concentrations individually, and then linking them through control of the volumetric flow rate. Optimization is achieved using a conjugate gradient search method, for which the gradients are computed through the solution of both the direct and adjoint problems. It is shown that the large amount of gradient information (parameter space has a dimension of several thousands) can be computed very efficiently using the adjoint, and that optimized results are achieved after only a few iterations irrespective of the initial guess. Computations are carried out using both two-dimensional model formulation applied to a long rectangular channel with varying width and slope and a model for the upper Potomac River estuary.     

Dissolved Oxygen and pH Modeling of a Periphyton Dominated, Nutrient Enriched River

Nutrient enrichment of the South Umpqua River, Oregon was linked to periphyton growth and large diel fluctuations in dissolved oxygen and hydrogen ion (pH) concentrations using the water quality model QUAL2Kw. The available data provide a good case study for the relatively new water quality model. QUAL2Kw simulates a dynamic diel heat budget and water quality kinetics for a one-dimensional, steady-flow system and is part of a family of models meant to serve as an update to the widely used QUAL2E. The model was used to quantify nonpoint source loading, determine the pollutant of concern, estimate natural conditions, and calculate a phosphorus total maximum daily load during summer, low-flow conditions. Control of both nonpoint and point sources is required to achieve the low instream phosphorus concentrations necessary to meet water quality criteria. To our knowledge, this is the first paper that reports on the application of a model for computing the maximum allowable load necessary to manage the diel variation in pH.     

High-Frequency Diel Dissolved Oxygen Stream Data Modeled for Variable Temperature and Scale

Diel dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and temperature were sensed at high-frequency and modeled in an eastern Iowan stream, Clear Creek, in an agricultural setting. The magnitude of the diel changes in DO and temperature were largest at the upstream (headwater) station. Inclusion of temperature change factors increased the accuracy of modeling results and yielded estimates of the reaeration rate constant, primary production rate, and respiration rate. The DO modeling of the high-frequency measurements (15-min intervals) revealed a temperature-driven nonlinear reaeration process that led to increases in nighttime DO concentrations. The DO modeling results from three sensing stations in the watershed revealed decreasing trends in primary productivity, respiration, and the reaeration rate constant with increasing drainage area. Light extinction from suspended solids was the main factor limiting net primary production. As a result, the P/R ratio also decreased with increasing drainage area. High-frequency sensor data and DO modeling revealed the effects of temperature and watershed scale on the primary factors that dictate diel DO dynamics in a stream setting.     

Parameter Sensitivity and Predictive Uncertainty in a New Water Quality Model, Q2

A new dynamic model of water quality, Q2, has recently been developed, capable of simulating large branched river systems. This paper describes the application of a generalized sensitivity analysis (GSA) to Q2 for single reaches of the River Thames in southern England. Focusing on the simulation of dissolved oxygen (DO) (since this may be regarded as a proxy for the overall health of a river); the GSA is used to identify key parameters controlling model behavior and provide a probabilistic procedure for model calibration. It is shown that, in the River Thames at least, it is more important to obtain high quality forcing functions than to obtain improved parameter estimates once approximate values have been estimated. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure reasonable simulation of a range of water quality determinands, since a focus only on DO increases predictive uncertainty in the DO simulations. The Q2 model has been applied here to the River Thames, but it has a broad utility for evaluating other systems in Europe and around the world.     

Mass Conservative Transport Scheme for the Application of the ELCIRC Model to Water Quality Computation

An attempt was made to couple the water quality model of Danshuei River to the three-dimensional unstructured-grid hydrodynamic model [Eulerian–Lagrangian circulation model (ELCIRC)]. The Eulerian–Lagrangian scheme for the solution of the transport equations of salt in ELCIRC was demonstrated to be not mass conservative. The scheme was replaced with a finite-volume/finite-difference upwind scheme to ensure mass conservation both locally and globally. The same scheme was also used for the scalar transport equation in the water quality model. The representation of mass flux in the scalar transport equation is carefully formulated to be consistent with that of volume flux used in the continuity equations of ELCIRC. It was demonstrated that the newly revised scheme (1) conserved mass locally and globally; (2) conserved mass for both conservative and nonconservative substances subjected to biogeochemical transformation; and (3) preserved the integrity of the wetting-and-drying scheme. Further, the baroclinic simulation using the newly revised scheme showed a better result in terms of salt intrusion and salinity distribution in the Danshuei River estuary.     

Transient Rainfall-Runoff Loadings to a Partial Exfiltration System: Implications for Urban Water Quantity and Quality

Modification of rainfall-runoff processes by urban infrastructure and anthropogenic activities impacts receiving waters and the surrounding terrestrial environment. Infiltration–exfiltration systems such as a partial exfiltration reactor (PER) when loaded by transient sheet flow have the potential to attenuate the impact of both the quantity and quality of urban runoff. These in situ systems are subject to highly variable water quality and quantity while functioning under variably saturated flow conditions. To improve the understanding of field-scale PER performance as a rainfall-runoff unit operation and process, a two-dimensional (2D) numerical model was used to simulate the effluent hydrograph and water content profiles under transient hydraulic loadings. Richard’s equation was applied in the 2D model using parameters estimated from laboratory experiments and hydrographs measured for an in situ PER. The temporal dynamics of the water content illustrated the ability of the PER to lower peak flow, redistribute volume, and attenuate temporal aspects of the inflow hydrograph. Results demonstrated the role of the PER to attenuate runoff water quantity, while also providing water quality improvements, as illustrated for suspended solids and dissolved Cu. Simulation of historical events for different surrounding soils illustrated the critical role of surrounding soil conditions on PER performance. While the PER demonstrated water quantity attenuation benefits for design storms (1, 2, 5?year return periods), results also illustrate how a given PER design for clayey soils conditions can be limiting for intense events. Evaporation was a dominant mechanism for the drying process in the PER upper layer; with a residual moisture content in the porous pavement layer achieved in less than 2?days in summer for Cincinnati, Ohio.