基于神经网络和模式匹配的股票预测研究

BP神经网络是分析股票数据最流行的工具之一.近期对模式匹配算法的研究表明模式匹配简化了股票趋势预测的复杂度并为股票市场预测提供了一种简单有效的方法.文中分别阐述了BP神经网络和模式匹配识别的原理,并提出将两种算法相结合,建立一个基于BP神经网络和模式匹配识别的股票市场分析和预测系统.这个系统克服了神经网络预测系统目标函数存在局部最小和模式匹配识别预测系统缺少股票价格自身变化特性的缺点,具有两种算法在股票预测应用方面的优势.通过对泰山石油的股价进行分析来测试这个系统.实验结果表明此方法不仅收敛速度快、预测精度高,而且易于操作,具有一定应用价值.     

基于改进型粒子群优化算法的BP网络在股票预测中的应用

本文提出了基于改进型粒子群优化的BP网络学习算法。在该算法中,首先改进了传统的BP算法,有效地使得网络中输入层、隐含层和输出层结点个数达到一个最优解。然后,用粒子群优化算法替代了传统BP算法中的梯度下降法,使得改进后的算法具有不易陷入局部极小、泛化性能好等特点,并将该算法应用在了股票预测的应用设计中。结果证明明：该算法能够明显减少迭代次数,提高收敛精度,其泛化性能也优于传统BP算法。     

基于PCA和IFOA-BP神经网络的股价预测模型

针对基于BP神经网络的股票价格预测模型在价格预测时存在较大误差的问题,在BP神经网络方法的基础上引入了主成分分析方法(PCA)和改进的果蝇算法(IFOA),提出一种基于PCA-IFOA-BP神经网络的股票价格预测模型。通过PCA对股票历史数据进行降维,减少冗余信息;采用改进的果蝇算法优化BP神经网络的初始权值和阈值;建立基于PCA和IFOA-BP神经网络的股票价格预测模型。对上证指数股票价格数据进行仿真验证,仿真结果表明:在股票价格预测中,该模型比BP神经网络、PCA-BP和PCA-FOA-BP的预测精度更高,是一种有效可行的预测方法。     

基于神经网络和模式匹配的股票预测研究

BP神经网络是分析股票数据最流行的工具之一。近期对模式匹配算法的研究表明模式匹配简化了股票趋势预测的复杂度并为股票市场预测提供了一种简单有效的方法。文中分别阐述了BP神经网络和模式匹配识别的原理,并提出将两种算法相结合,建立一个基于BP神经网络和模式匹配识别的股票市场分析和预测系统。这个系统克服了神经网络预测系统目标函数存在局部最小和模式匹配识别预测系统缺少股票价格自身变化特性的缺点,具有两种算法在股票预测应用方面的优势。通过对泰山石油的股价进行分析来测试这个系统。实验结果表明此方法不仅收敛速度快、预测精度高,而且易于操作,具有一定应用价值。     

基于改进粒子群优化算法的BP预测模型

该论文提出了基于改进粒子群优化的BP算法. 在该算法中,通过对粒子群优化算法中的惯性权重的计算方法的改进,同时利用改进的PSO算法替代了BP算法中的梯度下降算法,使得改进后的算法具有不易与陷入局部极小等优点. 并将该算法利用在预测气温上,实验证明： 改进后的算法在预测模型上能够取得较好的预测效果,提高预测精度.     

贝叶斯神经网络在股票时间序列预测中的应用

针对BP神经网络初始权值随机获取所导致的易陷入局部最优的问题,采用贝叶斯正则化（Bayesian Regularization,BR）算法改进传统BP神经网络模型。该算法在保证网络误差最小的前提下,通过历史数据的先验概率调整BP模型的适应度函数,使网络的泛化能力得到提升。在股票时间序列预测的实证性研究中表明,比传统BP模型在预测精度上提高42.81%。     

BP神经网络在股票预测中的应用

介绍了时间序列和BP神经网络算法,并给出信号正向传播和误差反向传播的公式,在此基础上运用BP算法对股票时间序列短期的走势进行预测分析.实验结果表明此方法效果良好,识别率高,具有一定的实用价值.     

基于改进BP神经网络的预测系统开发

阐述了预测系统的基本功能、原理实现和系统结构。对BP神经网络的结构和训练算法进行了研究,在分析了传统BP算法的缺陷后,提出了一种基于附加动量与自适应学习率相结合的改进算法。根据改进BP算法采用MATLAB编写了具有预测功能的循环函数程序。最后,利用VB.net、MATLAB以及Access数据库的混合编程技术开发了这套预测系统,并将该系统应用于高血压预测实例。     

一种改进的BP算法在气象数据预测研究中的应用

提出一种改进的BP算法,通过对内蒙古气象环境状态指标体系的收集、预测与分析,从而为预测气象变化提供一种可操作性的方法,实践证明,该改进算法的预测能力优于传统的BP算法.     

一种改进的 BP 神经网络算法与应用

针对传统 BP 算法存在的收敛速度过慢、易陷入局部极小、缺乏统一的理论指导网络结构设计的缺点,分析了一般的改进算法在神经网络优化过程中存在的问题,从蚁群算法和 BP 算法融合的角度上,并引入了放大因子,提出一种综合改进的 BP 算法.该算法引入放大因子改善 BP 算法易陷入局部极小的情况,结合蚁群算法用于指导网络结构设计,并极大地改善了收敛速度过慢的问题.最后,将改进的 BP 算法与传统 BP 算法进行应用于煤矿瓦斯预测.通过对实验结果的分析,从时间和正确率上都表明改进的 BP 算法要优于传统的 BP 算法     

Only connect: teaching, technology and telesis

Abstract This paper describes an approach to the design of interactive multimedia materials being developed in a European Community project. The developmental process is seen as a dialogue between technologists and teachers. This dialogue is often problematic because of the differences in training, experience and culture between them. Conditions needed for fruitful dialogue are described and the generic model for learning design used in the project is explained.     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

Avoiding semantic and temporal gaps in developing software intensive systems

Development of software intensive systems (systems) in practice involves a series of self-contained phases for the lifecycle of a system. Semantic and temporal gaps, which occur among phases and among developer disciplines within and across phases, hinder the ongoing development of a system because of the interdependencies among phases and among disciplines. Such gaps are magnified among systems that are developed at different times by different development teams, which may limit reuse of artifacts of systems development and interoperability among the systems. This article discusses such gaps and a systems development process for avoiding them.     

Designing economic np control charts: A programmed simulation approach

This paper presents control charts models and the necessary simulation software for the location of economic values of the control parameters. The simulation program is written in FORTRAN, requires only 10K of main storage, and can run on most mini and micro computers. Two models are presented - one describes the process when it is operating at full capacity and the other when the process is operating under capacity. The models allow the product quality to deteriorate to a further level before an existing out-of-control state is detected, and they can also be used in situations where no prior knowledge exists of the out-of-control causes and the resulting proportion defectives.     

The development of robot art

Going through a few examples of robot artists who are recognized worldwide, we try to analyze the deepest meaning of what is called “robot art” and the related art field definition. We also try to highlight its well-marked borders, such as kinetic sculptures, kinetic art, cyber art, and cyberpunk. A brief excursion into the importance of the context, the message, and its semiotics is also provided, case by case, together with a few hints on the history of this discipline in the light of an artistic perspective. Therefore, the aim of this article is to try to summarize the main characteristics that might classify robot art as a unique and innovative discipline, and to track down some of the principles by which a robotic artifact can or cannot be considered an art piece in terms of social, cultural, and strictly artistic interest. This work was presented in part at the 13th International Symposium on Artificial Life and Robotics, Oita, Japan, January 31–February 2, 2008     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

Three Process Perspectives: Organizations, Teams, and People

This paper provides the author's personal views and perspectives on software process improvement. Starting with his first work on technology assessment in IBM over 20 years ago, Watts Humphrey describes the process improvement work he has been directly involved in. This includes the development of the early process assessment methods, the original design of the CMM, and the introduction of the Personal Software Process (PSP)^SM and Team Software Process (TSP){^SM}. In addition to describing the original motivation for this work, the author also reviews many of the problems he and his associates encountered and why they solved them the way they did. He also comments on the outstanding issues and likely directions for future work. Finally, this work has built on the experiences and contributions of many people. Mr. Humphrey only describes work that he was personally involved in and he names many of the key contributors. However, so many people have been involved in this work that a full list of the important participants would be impractical.     

基于复小波噪声方差显著修正的SAR图像去噪

提出了一种基于复小波域统计建模与噪声方差估计显著性修正相结合的合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)图像斑点噪声滤波方法。该方法首先通过对数变换将乘性噪声模型转化为加性噪声模型,然后对变换后的图像进行双树复小波变换(Dualtree Complex Wavelet Transform,DCWT),并对复数小波系数的统计分布进行建模。在此先验分布的基础上,通过运用贝叶斯估计方法从含噪系数中恢复原始系数,达到滤除噪声的目的。实验结果表明该方法在去除噪声的同时保留了图像的细节信息,取得了很好的降噪效果。     

How do children do mathematics with LOGO?

Abstract  This paper considers some results of a study designed to investigate the kinds of mathematical activity undertaken by children (aged between 8 and 11) as they learned to program in LOGO. A model of learning modes is proposed, which attempts to describe the ways in which children used and acquired understanding of the programming/mathematical concepts involved. The remainder of the paper is concerned with discussing the validity and limitations of the model, and its implications for further research and curriculum development.