Comparative analysis of data mining methods for bankruptcy prediction

A great deal of research has been devoted to prediction of bankruptcy, to include application of data mining. Neural networks, support vector machines, and other algorithms often fit data well, but because of lack of comprehensibility, they are considered black box technologies. Conversely, decision trees are more comprehensible by human users. However, sometimes far too many rules result in another form of incomprehensibility. The number of rules obtained from decision tree algorithms can be controlled to some degree through setting different minimum support levels. This study applies a variety of data mining tools to bankruptcy data, with the purpose of comparing accuracy and number of rules. For this data, decision trees were found to be relatively more accurate compared to neural networks and support vector machines, but there were more rule nodes than desired. Adjustment of minimum support yielded more tractable rule sets.     

基于数据挖掘技术的信用卡审批模型研究

针对分类预测建模数据的非对称性,提出一种基于神经网络和决策树技术结合的非对称性数据集合预测分类建模方法,建立了信用卡审批模型.结果表明:增加预测类标识决策属性后,在用不同比例的建模数据集建立的所有模型中,比例为33.33%:66.67%的数据集建立的神经网络模型最好,模型的准确率达到88.49%.     

Using neural network ensembles for bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring

Bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring have long been regarded as critical topics and have been studied extensively in the accounting and finance literature. Artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques have been used to solve these financial decision-making problems. The multilayer perceptron (MLP) network trained by the back-propagation learning algorithm is the mostly used technique for financial decision-making problems. In addition, it is usually superior to other traditional statistical models. Recent studies suggest combining multiple classifiers (or classifier ensembles) should be better than single classifiers. However, the performance of multiple classifiers in bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring is not fully understood. In this paper, we investigate the performance of a single classifier as the baseline classifier to compare with multiple classifiers and diversified multiple classifiers by using neural networks based on three datasets. By comparing with the single classifier as the benchmark in terms of average prediction accuracy, the multiple classifiers only perform better in one of the three datasets. The diversified multiple classifiers trained by not only different classifier parameters but also different sets of training data perform worse in all datasets. However, for the Type I and Type II errors, there is no exact winner. We suggest that it is better to consider these three classifier architectures to make the optimal financial decision.     

银行卡客户群体聚类挖掘研究

银行卡业务利润丰厚.通过数据预处理,建立数据立方体,数据挖掘,分析客户群体特征,有目标地发展银行卡客户,使银行获得更大利益.     

An experimental comparison of ensemble of classifiers for bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring

In this paper, we investigate the performance of several systems based on ensemble of classifiers for bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring.The obtained results are very encouraging, our results improved the performance obtained using the stand-alone classifiers. We show that the method “Random Subspace” outperforms the other ensemble methods tested in this paper. Moreover, the best stand-alone method is the multi-layer perceptron neural net, while the best method tested in this work is the Random Subspace of Levenberg–Marquardt neural net.In this work, three financial datasets are chosen for the experiments: Australian credit, German credit, and Japanese credit.     

Improving experimental studies about ensembles of classifiers for bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring

Previous studies about ensembles of classifiers for bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring have been presented. In these studies, different ensemble schemes for complex classifiers were applied, and the best results were obtained using the Random Subspace method. The Bagging scheme was one of the ensemble methods used in the comparison. However, it was not correctly used. It is very important to use this ensemble scheme on weak and unstable classifiers for producing diversity in the combination. In order to improve the comparison, Bagging scheme on several decision trees models is applied to bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring. Decision trees encourage diversity for the combination of classifiers. Finally, an experimental study shows that Bagging scheme on decision trees present the best results for bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring.     

面向企业信用评估的分布式隐私保护数据挖掘

介绍企业信用评估和当前隐私保护数据挖掘技术的最新进展,利用适用于企业信用评估的大规模分布式隐私保护数据挖掘架构,讨论了基于该架构的面向企业信用评估的分布式隐私保护数据挖掘。该研究不仅将有助于大规模分布式环境下的隐私保护数据挖掘系统的研发,而且能够有力推动“信用中国”的建设步伐,以达到更好地服务经济的目的。     

Transit smart card data mining for passenger origin information extraction

The automated fare collection(AFC) system,also known as the transit smart card(SC) system,has gained more and more popularity among transit agencies worldwide.Compared with the conventional manual fare collection system,an AFC system has its inherent advantages in low labor cost and high efficiency for fare collection and transaction data archival.Although it is possible to collect highly valuable data from transit SC transactions,substantial efforts and methodologies are needed for extracting such data because most AFC systems are not initially designed for data collection.This is true especially for the Beijing AFC system,where a passenger’s boarding stop(origin) on a flat-rate bus is not recorded on the check-in scan.To extract passengers’ origin data from recorded SC transaction information,a Markov chain based Bayesian decision tree algorithm is developed in this study.Using the time invariance property of the Markov chain,the algorithm is further optimized and simplified to have a linear computational complexity.This algorithm is verified with transit vehicles equipped with global positioning system(GPS) data loggers.Our verification results demonstrated that the proposed algorithm is effective in extracting transit passengers’ origin information from SC transactions with a relatively high accuracy.Such transit origin data are highly valuable for transit system planning and route optimization.     

Early bankruptcy prediction using ENPC

Bankruptcy prediction has long time been an active research field in finance. One of the main approaches to this issue is dealing with it as a classification problem. Among the range of instruments available, we focus our attention on the Evolutionary Nearest Neighbor Classifier (ENPC). In this work we assess the performance of the ENPC comparing it to six alternatives. The results suggest that this algorithm might be considered a good choice.     

Feature selection in bankruptcy prediction

For many corporations, assessing the credit of investment targets and the possibility of bankruptcy is a vital issue before investment. Data mining and machine learning techniques have been applied to solve the bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring problems. As feature selection is an important step to select more representative data from a given dataset in data mining to improve the final prediction performance, it is unknown that which feature selection method is better. Therefore, this paper aims at comparing five well-known feature selection methods used in bankruptcy prediction, which are t-test, correlation matrix, stepwise regression, principle component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis (FA) to examine their prediction performance. Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural networks are used as the prediction model. Five related datasets are used in order to provide a reliable conclusion. Regarding the experimental results, the t-test feature selection method outperforms the other ones by the two performance measurements.     

基于SSPISIA数据收集的个人兴趣增量挖掘算法*

为提高搜索引擎的个性化信息检索能力,通过构建个人兴趣搜索智能agent子系统SSPISIA来搜集、组织、挖掘和应用用户的个人兴趣信息。着重介绍了SSPISIA的实现,包括逻辑组成、学习方式、工作过程以及基于页面浏览时间和内容选择的个人兴趣度量规则,并在此基础上给出了基于SSPISIA数据收集的个人兴趣增量挖掘算法。实验表明该结构和算法不仅能够反映用户的长期兴趣,而且能够跟踪用户的短期兴趣变化,具有良好的适应性,进而为实现搜索引擎的个性化信息检索奠定了基础。     

Optimization strategy of credit line management for credit card business

Adjusting the credit lines of card users is an important issue. It is essential to establish an optimized approach for credit card companies to identify the proper amount of credit to offer for their customers. Most of the related research concentrated on the prediction of credit card users׳ default. Our contribution is a consideration of a holistic and heuristic approach that looks at the credit line that maximizes the net profits of the credit card companies. We first apply regression models to find the probability of default of customer and customer׳s current balance as a function of credit line. Next we use a regression tree to identify groups of customers assigned with the same credit line. The results are then used to formulate the net profit and genetic algorithm is used to find optimally adjusted credit line for each group of customers. It is expected that our study can contribute to present strategic guidelines for the management of credit lines for card companies.     

Generating prediction rules for liquefaction through data mining

Prediction of liquefaction is an important subject in geotechnical engineering. Prediction of liquefaction is also a complex problem as it depends on many different physical factors, and the relations between these factors are highly non-linear and complex. Several approaches have been proposed in the literature for modeling and prediction of liquefaction. Most of these approaches are based on classical statistical approaches and neural networks. In this paper a new approach which is based on classification data mining is proposed first time in the literature for liquefaction prediction. The proposed approach is based on extracting accurate classification rules from neural networks via ant colony optimization. The extracted classification rules are in the form of IF–THEN rules which can be easily understood by human. The proposed algorithm is also compared with several other data mining algorithms. It is shown that the proposed algorithm is very effective and accurate in prediction of liquefaction.