A collaborative and artificial intelligence approach for semiconductor cost forecasting

Forecasting the unit cost of a semiconductor product is an important task to the manufacturer. However, it is not easy to deal with the uncertainty in the unit cost. In order to effectively forecast the semiconductor unit cost, a collaborative and artificial intelligence approach is proposed in this study. In the proposed methodology, a group of domain experts is formed. These domain experts are asked to configure their own fuzzy neural networks to forecast the semiconductor unit cost based on their viewpoints. A collaboration mechanism is therefore established. To facilitate the collaboration process and to derive a single representative value from these forecasts, a radial basis function (RBF) network is used. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is shown with a case study.     

Design a new mixed expert decision aiding system using fuzzy ELECTRE III method for vendor selection

Any decision process deals with two different concerns as its cornerstones, evaluating the alternatives and ranking them based on their performances. In any decision process, the former phase is usually the premise of the latter one. Alternatives’ evaluation is the concept that largely depends on the experts and their expertise, which increase uncertainty in the decision-making process. In addition to all proposed methods for having the experts’ knowledge as evaluations of the alternatives, utilizing expert decision support systems (EDSS) can be a sensible response to such a need. Having evaluated the alternatives in the first phase of a decision-making process, the second phase of the process deals with the ranking the alternatives based on their performances obtained from the first phase. In this paper, we discuss the architecture of a fuzzy system including both modules, utilizing fuzzy concept for dealing with the uncertainty of the problem. Concerning the problem we had been dealt with, our system comprises a fuzzy evaluation module, which is a fuzzy expert system and an appropriate tool for evaluating the existing alternatives promptly and smoothly, without the imposed time delays by the experts to propose their comments and the uncertainty of such expertise-based comments, and a fuzzy ranking module, which is a fuzzy version of ELECTRE III method ranking the alternatives based on their outranking relations and by considering the existing uncertainty in their performances. This way the final ranking is resulted from an independent fuzzy system, which has considered the existing uncertainty in the evaluations not once but twice. Our proposed system has been applied to a real case of vendor selection process in one of the greatest and the most famous companies in the Iranian oil industry, OIEC, and the results are discussed.     

Fuzzy temporal reasoning for process supervision

Abstract: Process supervision consists of following the temporal evolution (change) of process behaviours. This task has usually been performed based on the knowledge and experience of domain experts and operators. Actually, these experts and operators almost always express their experience and knowledge about process evolution in an imprecise, fuzzy and vague way. A good supervision system should be capable of dealing at once with two different kinds of knowledge: time and uncertainty.
For many years, time and uncertainty have been two of the most important topics in Artificial Intelligence research and applications. Many approaches have been proposed to deal with either one or the other. Among the various approaches for time, reified logic has been considered as the most influent one. Possibilistic logic, on the other hand, has shown its ability to handle uncertain knowledge and information. This paper describes an approach for managing temporal uncertainty based on fuzzy logic and possibility theory. A fuzzy temporal expert system shell has been developed to perform process supervision tasks.     

A new approach to fuzzy control using the distending function

Here, we develop a fuzzy controller using fuzzy arithmetics and a new type of membership function. The proposed new fuzzy control technique is simple, fast and computationally efficient, compared to the classical techniques (Mamdani, Takagi Sugeno) and it can also adapt to the process dynamics. The unique features are: 1) A new class of parametric membership function called the Distending Function (DF) is introduced; 2) A general parametric operator system is used. It utilizes most of the fuzzy operator systems for evaluating the knowledge base; 3) Inference is based on fuzzy arithmetic operations; 4) This leads to a computationally efficient single-step defuzzification. With these concepts, the paradigm of fuzzy control design changes radically. Using this technique with an optimization method, an adaptive fuzzy controller is designed. This adaptive controller adjusts to the changing dynamics of the non-linear processes by tuning our new type of membership function. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on two industrial processes (a water tank system and continuously stirred tank reactor system).     

Fuzzy knowledge combination

A general answer is given to what one should conclude from disagreeing experts. the answer is generalized further to incorporate the experts' credibility weights. the answer rests on a wide range of intuitively based epistemic axioms, scientific and philosophical conjectures, and formal mathematical relationships. A recurring theme is the making of Bellman - Zadeh fuzzy decisions, wherein a decision is the intersection of fuzzy goal and fuzzy constraint subsets of some space of alternatives. Another result is that measures of central tendency, such as the arithmetic mean, make poor knowledge combination operators. Formally, fuzzy knowledge combination operators are sought. the function space of knowledge combination operators ø: K″ → K is shrunk by imposing successive axioms. the final shrunken set is said to consist of admissible knowledge combination operators. Some of its mathematical properties are explored and a simple admissible operator is finally chosen. Knowledge sources X_i: S → K are mappings from epistemic stimuli or questions into a knowledge response set K. the uncertainty of the underlying epistemic situations is captured by the cardinality of K and by the fuzziness of its partial ordering. Admissible knowledge combination operators Aggregate knowledge responses in some desirable way. the arithmetic mean is not admissible. Nor in general is a probabilistic framework even definable in the abstract poset setting employed by this theory. the fuzzy knowledge combination theory is extended by associating general credibility weights with the knowledge sources. A new set of weighting axioms is required to satisfy certain intuitions and to satisfy the admissibility axioms. General weighting functions are obtained and thereby weighted admissible operators are obtained. the weighted mean still proves inadmissible. Appendix I contains a technical glossary and summary of the proposed fuzzy knowledge combination theory. Appendix II contains proofs of the probabilistic uncertainty theorems required for the uncertainty testbed used in the theory.     

Formulation of qualitative models using fuzzy logic

Formulation of qualitative models for complex decision problems exhibiting less structure, more imprecision and uncertainty is not adequately addressed in DSS research. Typical characteristics and requirements of such problems prohibit the development of DSS using knowledge based system development methodologies. This paper presents a methodology for formulation of qualitative models using fuzzy logic to handle the imprecision and uncertainty in the problem domain. The problem domain, in this methodology, is represented using problem-solving knowledge, environmental knowledge, and control knowledge components. A high level non-procedural language for representing these components of knowledge is illustrated using a project selection and resource allocation problem. The paper also describes the implementation of a prototype decision support environment based on this methodology.     

Developing taxonomy for the domain ontology of construction contractual semantics: A case study on the AIA A201 document

In construction contractual management, sharing experts’ domain knowledge through ontology is a good way to narrow the knowledge gap between the domain experts and the construction team. However, little work has been done on ontology taxonomy development in this domain. Based on a literature review on sharing domain knowledge, taxonomy development methods and the essence of construction contracts, this study proposes a synthesized methodology for taxonomy development in the domain of construction contractual semantics. This methodology is based on an ontological model extracted from definitions found in the contract, and uses common root concepts as the initial root concept classes, and includes the iterative development and competency questions approaches as well. In the case study, using the research results from pilot studies, the proposed methodology was applied to the AIA A201 General Conditions of the Contract for Construction (2007) document at the textual level. As a result, a taxonomy was developed which was used to determine the validity of the proposed methodology. The taxonomy development methodology and the developed taxonomy itself are both valuable contributions in the quest to further develop ontology-based applications for sharing domain knowledge about construction contract semantics.     

Neural and Neuro-Fuzzy Integration in a Knowledge-Based System for Air Quality Prediction

In this paper we propose a unified approach for integrating implicit and explicit knowledge in neurosymbolic systems as a combination of neural and neuro-fuzzy modules. In the developed hybrid system, training data set is used for building neuro-fuzzy modules, and represents implicit domain knowledge. The explicit domain knowledge on the other hand is represented by fuzzy rules, which are directly mapped into equivalent neural structures. The aim of this approach is to improve the abilities of modular neural structures, which are based on incomplete learning data sets, since the knowledge acquired from human experts is taken into account for adapting the general neural architecture. Three methods to combine the explicit and implicit knowledge modules are proposed. The techniques used to extract fuzzy rules from neural implicit knowledge modules are described. These techniques improve the structure and the behavior of the entire system. The proposed methodology has been applied in the field of air quality prediction with very encouraging results. These experiments show that the method is worth further investigation.     

基于犹豫模糊可信度的知识推理

针对不确定性推理中的可信度估值不精确的问题,将犹豫模糊集引入可信度不确定性推理中。提出犹豫模糊可信度的定义,并基于可信度的知识表示给出犹豫模糊可信度的知识表示方式。为解决专家在推理过程中出现的信息缺失问题,提出求解平均值的信息补全方法。构建犹豫模糊可信度的单条规则和多条规则并行关系的运算法则,并给出基于犹豫模糊可信度的知识表示与推理的具体步骤。最后,运用实例验证了所提算法的可行性及有效性。     

Application of fuzzy logic for predicting roof fall rate in coal mines

Roof fall is one of the serious hazards associated with underground coal mining. Roof fall can cause fatal and non-fatal injuries on miners, stoppages in mining operations and equipment breakdowns. Therefore, accurate prediction of roof fall rate is very important in controlling and eliminating of related problems. In this study, the fuzzy logic was applied to predict roof fall rate in coal mines. The predictive fuzzy model was implemented on fuzzy logic toolbox of MATLAB^® using Mamdani algorithm and was developed based on experts’ knowledge and also a database including 109 datasets of roof performance from US coal mines. 22 datasets of this database were used to assess the performance of this fuzzy model. The comparison between obtained results from model and actual roof fall rate showed that the fuzzy model can predict roof fall rate very well.

     

NEW METHODOLOGY TO FUZZY REASONING FOR RULE-BASED EXPERT SYSTEMS

Abstract

Much knowledge residing in the knowledge base of an expert system involves fuzzy concepts. A powerful expert system must have the capability of fuzzy reasoning. This paper presents a new methodology for dealing with fuzzy reasoning based on the matching function S. The single-input, single-output (SISO) fuzzy reasoning scheme and the multi-input, single-output (MISO) fuzzy reasoning schemes are discussed in detail. The proposed fuzzy reasoning methodology is conceptually clearer than the compositional rule of inference approach. It can provide an useful way for rule-based systems to deal with fuzzy reasoning.     

Connectivity reliability in uncertain networks with stability analysis

This paper treats the fundamental problems of reliability and stability analysis in uncertain networks. Here, we consider a collapsed, post-disaster, traffic network that is composed of nodes (centers) and arcs (links), where the uncertain operationality or reliability of links is evaluated by domain experts. To ensure the arrival of relief materials and rescue vehicles to the disaster areas in time, uncertainty theory, which neither requires any probability distribution nor fuzzy membership function, is employed to originally propose the problem of choosing the most reliable path (MRP). We then introduce the new problems of α-most reliable path (α-MRP), which aims to minimize the pessimistic risk value of a path under a given confidence level α, and very most reliable path (VMRP), where the objective is to maximize the confidence level of a path under a given threshold of pessimistic risk. Then, exploiting these concepts, we give the uncertainty distribution of the MRP in an uncertain traffic network. The objective of both α-MRP and VMRP is to determine a path that comprises the least risky route for transportation from a designated source node to a designated sink node, but with different decision criteria. Furthermore, a methodology is proposed to tackle the stability analysis issue in the framework of uncertainty programming; specifically, we show how to compute the arcs’ tolerances. Finally, we provide illustrative examples that show how our approaches work in realistic situation.     

A fuzzy ontology and its application to news summarization.

In this paper, a fuzzy ontology and its application to news summarization are presented. The fuzzy ontology with fuzzy concepts is an extension of the domain ontology with crisp concepts. It is more suitable to describe the domain knowledge than domain ontology for solving the uncertainty reasoning problems. First, the domain ontology with various events of news is predefined by domain experts. The document preprocessing mechanism will generate the meaningful terms based on the news corpus and the Chinese news dictionary defined by the domain expert. Then, the meaningful terms will be classified according to the events of the news by the term classifier. The fuzzy inference mechanism will generate the membership degrees for each fuzzy concept of the fuzzy ontology. Every fuzzy concept has a set of membership degrees associated with various events of the domain ontology. In addition, a news agent based on the fuzzy ontology is also developed for news summarization. The news agent contains five modules, including a retrieval agent, a document preprocessing mechanism, a sentence path extractor, a sentence generator, and a sentence filter to perform news summarization. Furthermore, we construct an experimental website to test the proposed approach. The experimental results show that the news agent based on the fuzzy ontology can effectively operate for news summarization.     

A fuzzy-probabilistic earthquake risk assessment system

This paper presents an outline of a risk assessment system for evaluating the expected damage of structures and the consequent financial losses and casualties due to a likely earthquake under elevated uncertain conditions; namely where neither the statistical data nor the seismological and engineering knowledge required for such evaluations are sufficient. In such cases, we should consider extra dimensions of uncertainty, in addition to probability that is usually sufficient for expressing the risk of losses and casualties due to an earthquake where such knowledge and data is available. In the present paper, the uncertainties caused by the insufficient knowledge about the interdependency of various parameters have been considered by means of fuzzy relations. Moreover, the uncertainties in eliciting the likelihood of the seismic hazard have been expressed by fuzzy probability in the form of possibility-probability distributions (PPDs). In other words, fuzzy set theory is employed to complement the standard probability theory with a second dimension of uncertainty. By composition of the fuzzy probability of the seismic hazard and fuzzy vulnerability relation of target structure, the fuzzy probability of damage can be derived. The proposed approach has also been compared with an alternative approach for obtaining a PPD of the hazard. As a case study, the risk assessment system has been tested on a sample structure in the Istanbul metropolitan area.     

Multicriteria decision making in energy planning using a modified fuzzy TOPSIS methodology

Energy planning is a complex issue which takes technical, economic, environmental and social attributes into account. Selection of the best energy technology requires the consideration of conflicting quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria. When decision-makers’ judgments are under uncertainty, it is relatively difficult for them to provide exact numerical values. The fuzzy set theory is a strong tool which can deal with the uncertainty in case of subjective, incomplete, and vague information. It is easier for an energy planning expert to make an evaluation by using linguistic terms. In this paper, a modified fuzzy TOPSIS methodology is proposed for the selection of the best energy technology alternative. TOPSIS is a multicriteria decision making (MCDM) technique which determines the best alternative by calculating the distances from the positive and negative ideal solutions according to the evaluation scores of the experts. In the proposed methodology, the weights of the selection criteria are determined by fuzzy pairwise comparison matrices. The methodology is applied to an energy planning decision-making problem.     

Dealing with heterogeneous information in engineering evaluation processes

Before selecting a design for a large engineering system several design proposals are evaluated studying different key aspects. In such a design assessment process, different criteria need to be evaluated, which can be of both of a quantitative and qualitative nature, and the knowledge provided by experts may be vague and/or incomplete. Consequently, the assessment problems may include different types of information (numerical, linguistic, interval-valued). Experts are usually forced to provide knowledge in the same domain and scale, resulting in higher levels of uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a flexible framework that can be used to model the assessment problems in different domains and scales. A fuzzy evaluation process in the proposed framework is investigated to deal with uncertainty and manage heterogeneous information in engineering evaluation processes.     

A linguistic approach to non-identical parallel processor scheduling with fuzzy processing times

This study presents an application of non-identical parallel processor scheduling under uncertain operation times. We have been motivated from a real case scheduling problem that contains some uncommon welding operations to be processed by workers in an automotive subcontract company. Here each operator may weld each job but in different processing times depending on learning effect because of operator’s ability and experience, and batch sizes. To determine the crisp operation times in such a fuzzy environment, a linguistic reasoning approach (with a 75-“If- Then” rules) considering the learning effect is proposed in the study. Since the fuzzy linguistic approach allows the representation of expert information more directly and adequately, it can be more possible to make realistic schedules under uncertainty. With the objective to balance the workload among all operators, the longest processing time heuristic algorithm is been used and measured average makespan. For evaluating the effectiveness of this approach, it is compared with the scheduling method that use the random operation times generated from a uniform distribution. Results showed that the proposed fuzzy linguistic scheduling approach has balanced the workload of operators with a standard deviation of 0.37 and improved the Cmax value as 16%. A general conclusion can be drawn the proposed approach is able to generate realistic schedules and especially useful to solve non-identical parallel processor scheduling problem under uncertainty. An important contribution of this study is that Mamdani inference method with learning effect is the first time used to obtain the crisp processing times of non-identical processors by the help of a rule base with expert knowledge.     

Ontological fuzzy agent for electrocardiogram application

The electrocardiogram (ECG) signal is adopted extensively as a low-cost diagnostic procedure to provide information concerning the healthy status of the heart. However, the QRS complex must be calculated accurately before proceeding with the heart rate variability (HRV). In particular, the R peak needs to be detected reliably. This study presents an adaptive fuzzy detector to detect the R peak correctly. Additionally, an ontological fuzzy agent is presented to process the collection of ECG signals. The required knowledge is stored in the ontology, which comprises some personal ontologies and predefined by domain experts. The ontological fuzzy agent retrieves the ECG signals with R peaks marked for HRV analysis and ECG further applications. It contains a personal fuzzy filter, an HRV analysis mechanism, and a fuzzy normed inference engine. Moreover, the ECG fuzzy signal space and some important properties are presented to define the working environment of the agent. An experimental platform has been constructed to test the performance of the agent. The results indicate that the proposed method can work effectively.