Energy models for demand forecasting—A review

Energy is vital for sustainable development of any nation - be it social, economic or environment. In the past decade energy consumption has increased exponentially globally. Energy management is crucial for the future economic prosperity and environmental security. Energy is linked to industrial production, agricultural output, health, access to water, population, education, quality of life, etc. Energy demand management is required for proper allocation of the available resources. During the last decade several new techniques are being used for energy demand management to accurately predict the future energy needs. In this paper an attempt is made to review the various energy demand forecasting models. Traditional methods such as time series, regression, econometric, ARIMA as well as soft computing techniques such as fuzzy logic, genetic algorithm, and neural networks are being extensively used for demand side management. Support vector regression, ant colony and particle swarm optimization are new techniques being adopted for energy demand forecasting. Bottom up models such as MARKAL and LEAP are also being used at the national and regional level for energy demand management.     

Growth and structural change in China's energy economy

China has been the world's most vibrant economy and its largest source of energy demand growth over the past two decades, accounting for more than one-quarter of net growth in global primary energy consumption from 1980 to 2005. To sustain economic growth and rising living standards, China needs effective policies that anticipate and shape the country's future energy requirements. In this paper, we examine China's national economic and energy accounts over the past decade for insights into changing energy use patterns and their relationship to economic structure. Our results indicate that incipient structural changes in the Chinese energy economy and sustained economic and energy demand growth in China will pose important, and different, challenges for policymakers.     

情景分析法应用于能源需求与碳排放预测

能源是关系到国计民生的重要资源,国家日益倡导节能减排,能源需求预测与规划已成为了一个地区重要的任务。本文以全国十强县之一—江阴作为代表,应用情景分析法,预测2011～2020年能源需求与碳排放,以此反映我国经济发达县市能源需求和碳排放趋势。     

Analysis of the lithuanian final energy consumption with respect to economic changes

The development of energy consumption in Lithuania is investigated on the basis of realistic economic scenarios. The aim is to provide reasonable projections of final energy consumption for selected demand sectors. The main parameters determining consumption are the gross national product (GNP) and the real price for energy. The influences of price level and economic activity during preceding periods are evaluated by using multiple regressions with a quasi-dynamic model. Insofar as these mechanisms cannot be detected for Lithuania, experiences with other former centrally-planned economies, which have already turned into kinds of market economies, are applied to make realistic projections for the transitory period. The underlying scenarios for the GNP and price developments are taken from official Lithuanian projections, but they have been adjusted to allow for the most recent development. The results of the quasi-dynamic model are compared with the official final energy-demand projections to provide policy advice for a proper restructuring of the energy system.     

Recent estimates of energy efficiency potential in the USA

Understanding the potential for reducing energy demand through increased end-use energy efficiency can inform energy and climate policy decisions. However, if potential estimates are vastly different, they engender controversial debates, clouding the usefulness of energy efficiency in shaping a clean energy future. A substantive question thus arises: is there a general consensus on the potential estimates? To answer this question, this paper reviews recent studies of US national and regional energy efficiency potential in buildings and industry. Although these studies are based on differing assumptions, methods, and data, they suggest technically possible reductions of ~25–40 % in electricity demand and ~30 % in natural gas demand in 2020 and economic reductions of ~10–25 % in electricity demand and ~20 % in natural gas demand in 2020. These estimates imply that electricity growth from 2009 to 2020 ranges from turning US electricity demand growth negative, to reducing it to a growth rate of ~0.3 %/year (compared to ~1 % baseline growth).     

Exploring drivers of energy demand in Cyprus – Scenarios and policy options

This paper describes a new set of energy demand forecasts for the Republic of Cyprus up to the year 2040, which have been developed in support of the renewable energy roadmap that was prepared for national authorities by the International Renewable Energy Agency. The analysis takes into account national end-use data from the residential and tertiary sector that had not been exploited up to now. Four final energy demand scenarios with diverging assumptions were defined in this study, offering a wide range of possible outcomes up to 2040; in addition, four alternative scenarios were applied for sensitivity analysis. Two of these scenarios can be regarded as those continuing the trends of the recent past in Cyprus (prior to the economic and financial downturn of years 2011–2014). However, a more rigorous implementation of energy efficiency measures in buildings and transport, as defined in the fourth scenario of this study, is also realistic; despite its potential costs, it might allow Cyprus both to decrease its carbon emissions in line with the long-term EU decarbonisation targets, and to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, thereby promoting energy efficiency as an important climate change adaptation measure.     

Analysis of long-range clean energy investment scenarios for Eritrea,East Africa

We discuss energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE/RE) investments in Eritrea from the strategic long-term economic perspective of meeting Eritrea's sustainable development goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. EE/RE are potentially important contributors to national productive capital accumulation, enhancement of the environment, expansion of energy services, increases in household standard of living, and improvements in health. In this study, we develop a spreadsheet model for calculating some of the national benefits and costs of different levels of investment in EE/RE. We then present the results of the model in terms of investment demand and investment scenario curves. These curves express the contribution that efficiency and renewable energy projects can make in terms of reduced energy sector operating expenses, and reduced carbon emissions. We provide demand and supply curves that show the rate of return, the cost of carbon emissions reductions vs. supply, and the evolution of the marginal carbon emissions per dollar of GDP for different investment levels and different fuel-type subsectors.     

Modelling UK sub-sector industrial energy demand

The importance of considering homogenous economic agents when estimating energy demand functions is recognized in the literature, but so far data availability problems have explained the prevalence of empirical analyses only at an aggregate level. Motivated by the goal of developing the new industrial module to be adopted by the UK government Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) for their econometric Energy Demand Model, we propose the first cointegration analysis that provides evidence on energy demand elasticities with respect to economic activity and energy price at a disaggregated industrial level. While the average of our estimates are comparable to those of the existing literature on the industrial sector as a whole, we find that there is considerable heterogeneity in relation to the long-run impact of economic activity and energy price on energy consumption, as well as to the speed with which firms re-adjust their equilibrium demand of energy in response to economic shocks. Finally, we learn that long-run disequilibria are tackled through altering the level of energy consumption rather than economic activity, a conclusion that has important implications for policy analysis.     

推动长江经济带冬季清洁取暖 满足人民美好生活需要

推进长江经济带绿色发展是国家的重大战略。长江经济带沿线9省2市聚焦了全国42%的人口,长期以来冬季室内温度普遍较低、热舒适性较差,居民要求冬季取暖的呼声日渐强烈,未来取暖用能增长强劲。推动长江经济带冬季清洁取暖是满足人民美好生活需要的具体体现,但是目前还存在认识不一致、技术路径不清晰、房屋保温性能差、影响区域能源供需平衡等问题。建议国家按照“生活品质提升”的定位,坚持政府引导、市场主导原则推进长江经济带夏热冬冷地区冬季清洁取暖工作,加强技术指导和建筑节能标准的落实,统筹长江经济带能源协同发展,提高取暖用能保障能力。     

Modelling of energy systems with a high percentage of CHP and wind power

This paper presents the energy system analysis model EnergyPLAN, which has been used to analyse the integration of large scale wind power into the national Danish electricity system. The main purpose of the EnergyPLAN model is to design suitable national energy planning strategies by analysing the consequences of different national energy investments. The model emphasises the analysis of different regulation strategies and different market economic optimisation strategies.At present wind power supply 15% of the Danish electricity demand and ca 50% is produced in CHP (combined heat and power production). The model has been used in the work of an expert group conducted by the Danish Energy Agency for the Danish Parliament. Results are included in the paper in terms of strategies, in order to manage the integration of CHP and wind power in the future Danish energy supply in which more than 40% of the supply is expected to come from wind power.     

Residential energy consumption across different population groups: comparative analysis for Latino and non-Latino households in USA

Residential energy cost is an important part of the household budget and could vary significantly across different population groups in many countries. In the United States, many studies have analyzed household fuel consumption by fuel type, including electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and by geographic areas. Past research has also demonstrated significant variation in residential energy use across various population groups, including white, black, and Latino. However, our research shows that residential energy demand by fuel type for Latinos, the fastest growing population group, has not been explained by economic and non-economic factors in any statistical model in public domain. The purpose of this paper was to discuss energy demand and expenditure patterns for Latino and non-Latino households in hhe United States as a case example of analyzing residential energy consumption across different population groups in a country. The linear expenditure system model developed by Stone and Geary is the basis of the statistical model developed to explain fuel consumption and expenditures for Latino households. For comparison, the models are also developed for non-Latino, black, and non-black households. These models estimate energy consumption of and expenditures for electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and LPG by various households at the national level. Significant variations in the patterns of these fuels consumption for Latinos and non-Latinos are highlighted. The model methodology and results of this research should be useful to energy policymakers in government and industry, researches, and academicians who are concerned with economic and energy issues related to various population groups in their country.     

石油和化学工业能源的节约和有效利用规划(一)

我国经济的持续和快速发展推动了能源需求。能源供应量的限制及环境形势的日益严重,促使我们必须加强能源的节约和有效利用。石油和化学工业是国民经济的重要支柱产业,同时,能源消耗总量在我国能源消耗总量中所占比重较高。因此,对石油和化学工业能源的节约和有效利用进行规划是非常必要的。本文从企业、化学工业区、区域和国家等层面探讨了进行能源的节约和有效利用值得关注和需要解决的问题。     

Energy demand and supply,energy policies,and energy security in the Republic of Korea

The Republic of Korea (ROK) has enjoyed rapid economic growth and development over the last 30 years. Rapid increases in energy use—especially petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, and especially in the industrial and transport sectors—have fueled the ROK's economic growth, but with limited fossil fuel resources of its own, the result has been that the ROK is almost entirely dependent on energy imports. The article that follows summarizes the recent trends in the ROK energy sector, including trends in energy demand and supply, and trends in economic, demographic, and other activities that underlie trends in energy use. The ROK has been experiencing drastic changes in its energy system, mainly induced by industrial, supply security, and environmental concerns, and energy policies in the ROK have evolved over the years to address such challenges through measures such as privatization of energy-sector activities, emphases on enhancing energy security through development of energy efficiency, nuclear power, and renewable energy, and a related focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The assembly of a model for evaluating energy futures in the ROK (ROK2010 LEAP) is described, and results of several policy-based scenarios focused on different levels of nuclear energy utilization are described, and their impacts on of energy supply and demand in the ROK through the year 2030 are explored, along with their implications for national energy security and long-term policy plans. Nuclear power continues to hold a crucial position in the ROK's energy policy, but aggressive expansion of nuclear power alone, even if possible given post-Fukushima global concerns, will not be sufficient to attain the ROK's “green economy” and greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals.     

How do energy & environmental policy goals and instruments affect electricity demand? A framework for the analysis

Several measures in the environment and energy realms are currently being implemented in the EU and its Member States. Three of these instruments, with an impact on the electricity market, are demand side management activities, promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources and measures aimed at the mitigation of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. The objective of this paper is to analyse the impact of these energy efficiency and environmental goals and instruments on electricity demand and costs to electricity consumers when electricity markets are either national or international and when those policies are implemented by a national or an international institution. The paper shows that the effectiveness and impact of those measures largely depends on the demand response in the electricity market. An additional conclusion is that, when either the electricity markets or the support policies are national, distortions may occur, i.e. the reductions in electricity demand in one country may be subsidised by consumers or taxpayers in another country.     

Introducing technology learning for energy technologies in a national CGE model through soft links to global and national energy models

This paper describes a method to model the influence by global policy scenarios, particularly spillover of technology learning, on the energy service demand of the non-energy sectors of the national economy. It is exemplified by Norway. Spillover is obtained from the technology-rich global Energy Technology Perspective model operated by the International Energy Agency. It is provided to a national hybrid model where a national bottom-up Markal model carries forward spillover into a national top-down CGE¹ model at a disaggregated demand category level. Spillover of technology learning from the global energy technology market will reduce national generation costs of energy carriers. This may in turn increase demand in the non-energy sectors of the economy because of the rebound effect. The influence of spillover on the Norwegian economy is most pronounced for the production level of industrial chemicals and for the demand for electricity for residential energy services. The influence is modest, however, because all existing electricity generating capacity is hydroelectric and thus compatible with the low emission policy scenario. In countries where most of the existing generating capacity must be replaced by nascent energy technologies or carbon captured and storage the influence on demand is expected to be more significant.     

Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity – around 1.5 – for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country.     

Exploitation of solar energy in Cyprus

This paper reviews the application of solar energy technology in Cyprus and presents an energy analysis with emphasis on the contribution of solar energy to the energy consumption in the island. The almost full reliance of Cyprus on imported oil to meet its energy demand, together with the abundance of solar radiation and a good technological base, created favourable conditions for the exploitation and development of solar energy in the island. Cyprys began manufacturing solar water heaters in the early 1960s and today it produces more than 30,000 m² of solar collectors yearly. It is estimated that more than 130,000 solar water heaters are in operation providing the equivalent of 9% of the total electricity consumption in the country; this corresponds to, approximately, 4% of the national energy consumption. However, the use of solar energy for space heating and cooling provides a further challenge, because it does not appear to be economic under the climatic conditions and system design practices currently prevailing in Cyprus. The paper provides a statistical analysis of the energy demand and identifies areas of further growth for solar energy technology.     

The transnationalisation of the Indian coal economy and the Australian political economy: The fusion of regimes of accumulation?

The Indian government's economic development program is predicated on increasing electricity generating capacity. Coal fired power and removal of obstacles to private corporations investing in generating capacity are core elements in this program. With difficulties in boosting national coal production, the state-owned Coal India Limited and energy corporations have spearheaded a range of global coal sourcing endeavours, including investing in offshore deposits. Energy security has become reflected in engineering global supply chains, securing control of coal, with two of the largest projects involving Adani and GVK proposing to develop mines in the Galilee Basin in Queensland, Australia. These investments become the institutional and organisational architecture that locks in demand, a global demand which helps to explain successive Australian governments support for and approval of the projects. Notwithstanding considerable environmental opposition, and questions about the economic merits and commercial viability of the projects, Australian governments are wedded to the conviction that expanded development of the economy is tied to extracting and exporting fossil fuels, to consolidating Australia as an ‘energy superpower’.     

The Philippines' five-year energy program: 1981–85

The paper states the rationale behind the Philippines' Five-Year Energy Program; its underlying philosophy which is to provide the consumer with cost-effective energy alternatives that are essential to the economic, social and political progress of the nation; the basic policy objectives as well as the concrete plans of action and quantitative goals of each sector.Assuming a 6.3% growth rate in energy demand, it is envisioned that the Philippines' total commercial energy requirements by 1985 will amount to about 120 million barrels-of-oil equivalent. The industrial sector will absorb 47.5%, in consonance with the industrial expansion program of the government. The share of transportation is expected to reach 26.6%, with the balance to be accounted for by the residential and commercial sectors (25.9%).Pursuant to the state's policy to achieve self-reliance in energy supply, national dependence on oil is programmed to decline from 87.9% in 1980 to 49.7% in 1985, as the expected energy demand is met by indigenous sources. Hydro, coal and geothermal power will substantially displace oil utilization, their share increasing from 12.1% in 1980 to 45.2% in 1985. In addition to domestic crude oil production, development of non-oil resources could realize for the Philippines a 56% self-sufficiency target by the end of 1985.A total financial package of $8.29 billion is required over the next five years to fully operationalize the target program. This corresponds to an average yearly requirement of $1.66 billion—the financial magnitude of this program underscores the premium attached to long-term national aspirations for energy self-reliance.     

Renewable energy potential on brownfield sites: A case study of Michigan

Federal priorities are increasingly favoring the replacement of conventional sources of energy with renewable energy. With the potential for a federal Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) legislation, many states are seeking to intensify their renewable energy generation. The demand for wind, solar, geothermal and bio-fuels-based energy is likely to be rapidly expressed on the landscape. However, local zoning and NIMBYism constraints slow down the placement of renewable energy projects. One area where land constraints may be lower is brownfields; whose development is currently constrained by diminished housing, commercial, and industrial property demand. Brownfield sites have the potential for rapid renewable energy deployment if state and national interests in this area materialize. This study investigates the application of renewable energy production on brownfield sites using Michigan as a case study. Wind and solar resource maps of Michigan were overlaid with the brownfield locations based on estimates of brownfield land capacity. The total estimated energy potential available on Michigan’s brownfield sites is 4320 megawatts (MW) of plate capacity for wind and 1535for solar, equating to 43% of Michigan’s residential electricity consumption (using 30% capacity factor). Estimated economic impacts include over $15 billion in investments and 17,500 in construction and long-term jobs.