强台风作用下近岸海域波浪-风暴潮耦合数值模拟

强台风作用会在近岸海域形成狂风、巨浪、风暴潮等极端环境,严重威胁跨海桥梁等近海工程结构安全。该研究采用Holland模型风场叠加宫崎正卫移行风场和ERA-Interim风场模拟台风风场,探讨了不同的最大风速半径经验公式对风场的适用性,同时驱动SWAN+ADCIRC波流耦合模式,模拟了强台风\     

杭州湾、浙江沿海一带风暴潮数值预报研究

分析了风暴潮的特点、成灾、危害,介绍了杭州湾风暴潮的重大影响,在Visual Studio 2010平台下,采用C++编程语言开发了二维并行数值预报的可视化软件.通过输入计算域的水深数据及每6h变化的台风参数实现风暴潮数值计算,在界面上直观地显示台风的移动路径和伴随着台风移动整个计算域的增水时历过程,同时同步显示所选验潮站的风暴潮增水时历曲线和移行台风风速大小、方向时历曲线.结合杭州湾的实际地形,将计算域进行了粗网格、二分之一网格细化和四分之一网格细化三种划分,选取5612号、7708号台风和2012年的Damrey、Haikui台风,分别对粗网格和两种细网格区域进行计算.还将5612号、7708号台风的计算结果与验潮站的实测数据进行比对.结果表明,网格的粗细对计算结果的影响不大,但对比实测数据后发现网格越粗计算结果与实测潮位数据的吻合性就越好.     

台风气候大跨度桥梁风振响应研究

以中国东南部沿海台风多发区3类典型大跨度桥梁为例,即长江三角洲区域舟山群岛西堠门大桥,上海长江大桥和珠江三角洲区域广州新光大桥,运用Monte-Carlo随机模拟算法,结合大量台风历史实测数据.再现了台风气候条件下桥位工程场地风环境参数取值特点;考虑桥梁结构几何非线性效应、多种气动力荷载共同子孟均风及瞬时风攻角效应,由时域有限元计算方法比较了良态与台风气候条件下大跨度桥梁风振响应.利用大气边鹘绮惴缍幢欢闪鞣⑸爸?再现了台风条件下新光大桥全桥气弹模型流场特征和风振响应过程,基于中跨拱肋二维节段模型高频天平测力试验识别了台风强紊流条件下气动导纳函数,进一步精细化地分析了台风条件下新光拱桥风致振动响应特点.     

厦门地区台风风场特性的数值模拟

基于1959年~2008年厦门地区的台风详细资料,采用Yan Meng风场模型进行台风数值模拟,得到了台风极值风速序列,并推算出厦门地区不同重现期的极值风速,与年极值风速实测资料统计结果及现行规范值进行比较,为结构抗风设计提供了更为合理的荷载信息;同时,讨论了风向对极值风速分布的影响,为正确选择建筑方位提供理论指导。最后,基于Yan Meng风场不同半径位置处风剖面的变化规律,提取厦门地区沿高度的极值风速,研究了台风条件下的风剖面规律。     

考虑台风空间位置的桥址区风特性模型实测研究

风特性是桥梁结构抗风设计的前提条件。为准确表征台风移动对桥址区风特性的影响，利用桥梁结构健康监测系统测得的多次台风实测数据，研究了考虑台风空间位置的桥址区风特性模型。基于已有台风解析模型和台风路径数据，模拟了台风过境期间桥址区平均风速时程，并利用实测结果验证了解析模型的有效性。在此基础上，分析了湍流强度、阵风因子、湍流积分尺度等脉动风特性参数随桥址区和台风中心距离的变化规律，据此研究了脉动风特性参数的空间分布模型。结果表明，已有台风解析模型可实现桥址区平均风速的模拟；台风空间位置变化对桥址区脉动风特性影响显著，空间分布模型能有效反映台风移动过程中桥址区脉动风特性的基本变化特征，可为大跨度桥梁等工程结构设计与运维提供有益参考。     

大跨径桥梁三维台风风场数值模拟

台风灾害频发以及大跨径桥梁塔高、质轻和阻尼弱的特点,台风作用下大跨径桥梁的安全评估十分必要,大跨径桥梁三维台风风场合理模拟是面临的首要问题。利用三次样条函数,模拟台风时变平均风速;采用更新时变平均风速的谐波合成法,实现台风风速脉动部分的数值模拟;并考虑空间点群风速相关性,建立三维台风风场模拟方法。基于进化谱理论,推导非均匀调制进化功率谱(简称进化谱),建立台风风场模拟验证方法;通过对比进化谱与模拟功率谱,对台风模拟结果进行验证。选取沿海地区某大跨斜拉桥为例,应用构建的三维台风风场模拟与验证方法,进行实例桥梁风场分析。结果表明,采用更新时变平均风速的谐波合成法,并考虑空间点群风速相关性,可实现三维台风风场的模拟。     

台风非平稳性对钢格构浮式基础海上风机动力响应影响研究

该文提出了一种用于海上风机的新型钢格构式浮式基础,研究了台风作用下新型钢格构式浮式基础的动力载荷和动力响应。根据美国可再生能源实验室的5 MW风电机组参数初步设计了一种新型的钢格构式浮式基础;采用Holland台风模型和超强台风“山竹”(1822)的实测数据,基于叶素动量理论、势流理论和Morison方程分析了台风-浪荷载联合作用下的浮式基础动力响应特性。结果表明:该文提出的钢格构式浮式基础的动力载荷和运动响应会受到台风作用的显著影响,强台风及台风过境工况下的响应显著大于稳态强风工况,并呈现出剧烈的非平稳性。浮式基础动力载荷和运动响应与环境风速变化的趋势一致,且当风向不断变化,将引起塔筒底部产生较大的扭矩,海上风机浮式基础产生较大的艏摇运动响应。证明了考虑台风作用对钢格构式浮式风机基础稳定性影响的必要性,为钢格构式浮式基础海上风机在台风作用下的安全评价提供了理论依据和分析方法。     

台风-浪-流耦合作用下海上10 MW级特大型风力机风荷载特性分析

为揭示海上台风-浪-流耦合作用下海上风力机的风荷载分布特性,以广东外罗10 MW特大型风力机为研究对象,采用Model Coupling Toolkit(MCT)建立中尺度WRF-SWAN-FVCOM(W-S-F)实时耦合模拟平台,分析超强台风“威马逊”过境全过程海上风电场台风-浪-流的时空演变,再结合中/小尺度嵌套方法分析了风力机风荷载分布特性与叶片-塔筒-波浪面之间的干扰效应,提出了极端风况下海上风力机典型位置极值荷载模型。结果表明：建立的中尺度W-S-F耦合平台能准确模拟台风、波浪和海流间的相互作用;塔筒风荷载在叶片干扰段以横风向为主,在波浪干扰段以顺风向为主,并在低空波面附近表现出较强的脉动特征;A位置叶片最安全而B位置最危险;T4相位为海上风力机单桩基础强度设计的最不利相位,基底剪力最大达7.68×106量级,基底弯矩最大达5.2×108量级。     

考虑桥面等级退化影响的风-车流-桥梁耦合振动分析

综合考虑了车流随机性和桥面等级退化等因素,提出了一种新的分析模型,该模型能分析在役桥梁不同服役期间在交通荷载及风耦合作用下的桥梁动态响应。基于已有车辆模型,建立了一个可考虑车辆纵向振动的18自由度空间车辆模型,考虑邻近车辆影响基础之上的改进CA(Cellular Automation-元胞自动机)模型和桥面退化模型,并引入等效车轮荷载的方法,通过风、桥梁和车辆相互作用关系,建立了风-车流-桥梁系统的耦合振动分析模型。数值计算表明:该文所提出的方法能够合理的模拟风-车流-桥梁系统的耦合振动。     

中小尺度嵌套下考虑停机位置的大型风力机体系风振响应分析

国内外风工程界采用的风力机体系风效应分析方法通常基于良态气候模式,而台风边界层风特性不同于良态气候模式,台风作用过程中会表现出明显的时空变异性和多尺度涡结构。针对现存土木工程台风模型理论体系过度简化的问题,引入考虑真实台风场强变异性和衰减效应的中尺度天气预报模式(WRF)对“鹦鹉”台风进行高时空分辨率模拟,重点对比台风登陆前、登陆时和登陆后台风风向和风强特征,并结合模拟台风中心路径与实测路径的对比结果验证了中尺度台风“鹦鹉”模拟的有效性。以中国东南沿海地区某风电厂5 MW水平轴风力机为对象,基于WRF模拟获得近地面三维风场数据,并结合小尺度CFD大涡模拟技术分别对叶片单个旋转周期不同停机位置工况进行三维非定常数值模拟。在此基础上,结合有限元完全瞬态法对不同停机工况进行了风振响应动力时程分析,提炼出停机位置对体系风振响应和风振系数的影响规律,最终归纳总结了台风作用下大型风力机体系最不利停机位置。结果表明:采用WRF模式可以有效模拟近地面台风风场,拟合的台风剖面指数为0.076;台风下塔架内力和风振系数显著增大,尤其是与塔架相对位置最近的叶片风振响应最为不利,内力最大增幅达35%。分析发现:当台风作用下大型风力机处于停机状态,下叶片与塔架完全重合(工况1)时为最不利,旋转至上叶片完全重合(工况5)时安全余度最大。     

Modelling waves and surges during the 1953 storm

Waves and sea levels have been modelled for the storm of 31 January-1 February 1953. Problems in modelling this event are associated with the difficulty of reconstructing wind fields and validating the model results with the limited data available from 50 years ago. The reconstruction of appropriate wind fields for surge and wave models is examined. The surges and waves are reproduced reasonably well on the basis of tide-gauge observations and the sparse observational information on wave heights. The maximum surge coincided closely in time with tidal high water, producing very high water levels along the coasts of the southern North Sea. The statistics of the 1953 event and the likelihood of recurrence are also discussed. Both surge and wave components were estimated to be approximately 1 in 50 year events. The maximum water level also occurred when the offshore waves were close to their maximum. The estimation of return period for the total water level is more problematic and is dependent on location. A scenario with the 1953 storm occurring in 2075, accounting for the effects of sea level rise and land movements, is also constructed, suggesting that sea level relative to the land could be 0.4-0.5m higher than in 1953 in the southern North Sea, assuming a rise in mean sea level of 0.4m.     

Poisson-Gumbel Model for Wind Speed Threshold Estimation of Maximum Wind Speed

Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model uses maximum wind speed corresponding to multiple typhoons to construct sample sequence. Thresholds are usually used to filter sample sequences to make them more consistent with Poisson distribution. However, few studies have discussed the threshold setting and its impact on Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model. In this study, a sample sequence based on the data of Qinzhou meteorological station from 2005 to 2018 were constructed. We set 0%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 30% gradient thresholds. Then, we analyzed the influence of threshold change on the calculation results of maximum wind speed in different return periods. The results showed that: (1) When the threshold increases, the maximum wind speed of each return period will decrease gradually. This indicates that the length of the sample series may have a positive effect on the return period wind speed calculation in Gumbel and Poisson-Gumbel methods. Although the augment of the threshold increases the average value of the maximum wind speed of the sample sequence, it shortens the length of the sample sequence, resulting in a lower calculated value of the maximum wind speed. However, this deviation is not large. Taking the common 10% threshold as an example, the maximum wind speed calculation deviation in the 50 a return period is about 1.9%; (2) Theoretically, the threshold is set to make the sample sequence more consistent with Poisson distribution, but this example showed that the effect is worth further discussion. Although the overall trend showed that the increase of the threshold can make χ2 decrease, the correlation coefficient of linear fitting was only 0.182. Taking Qinzhou meteorological station data as an example, the χ2 of 20% threshold was as high as 6.35, meaning that the selected sample sequence was not ideal.

     

On long-term statistics of high waves via the equivalent power storm model

The objective of this paper is to investigate the long-term statistics associated with extreme nonlinear sea wave crests. For this purpose, an equivalent power storm methodology is exploited for modeling the non-stationary time variability of the significant wave height. The method involves the identification of the real storm time histories and a subsequent replacement of each real storm by a fictitious storm that is equivalent to the real one in a statistical sense. Such an approach allows deriving the closed form expression of the return period of a nonlinear wave crest. Numerical results pertain to the calculation of this quantity starting from wave data recorded at the Gulf of Mexico and comparison with alternative methodology recommended in the practice.Next, the paper investigates effects relevant to the design of marine structures in the proximity of a coast. Specifically, the paper considers the effect of the water depth on the return values of the significant wave height and of the maximum expected crest height. The water depth influence relates to a magnification of the return values of wave crest despite the fact that the offshore significant wave height is larger than the near-shore one for a certain value of the return period, due to shoaling-refraction effects.     

基于乘法定理和AL模型的风速风向联合概率分布的研究及应用

该文开展了风速风向联合概率分布的研究,以大理地区1971年~2017年47年间的风速日值数据资料为例,选用乘法定理和AL模型两种方法建立该地区风速风向联合概率分布。首先,对各风向以及全风向风速数据的最优概率分布进行研究;其次,分别基于谐波函数和混合von Mises分布对风向的概率密度进行拟合,并进一步基于乘法定理和Angular-Linear （AL）模型推导得出了风速风向联合概率密度函数;最后,对大理地区50年重现期内的极值风速进行预测。研究结果表明：Gumbel分布能更好地描述大理地区的风速分布规律,通过AL模型获得的风速风向联合概率密度函数明显优于基于乘法定理得到的联合概率密度函数;而忽略风向的影响将明显高估大理地区的极值风速。     

高铁大跨桥梁设计地震作用与国内外主要抗震规范的比较研究

本文选择了现行国内外主要抗震设计规范,对比了国内外主要抗震设计规范的场地类型划分的差异;考虑地震的重现期与结构的重要性系数等因素,对比分析了我国不同行业抗震规范与《铁路工程抗震设计规范》2009年修正版在多遇地震(小震)、设防烈度地震(中震)和罕遇地震(大震)下各规范反应谱平台取值以及反应谱曲线本身。研究表明我国高铁大跨桥梁在小震的设计取值偏高,中震取值与国内其它规范相当,而大震的取值则偏低。我国高铁大跨桥梁的设计地震作用与欧洲规范Eurocode 8 的对比研究表明,我国的小震(50年重现期)取值小于欧洲规范(90年重现期)、中震(475年重现期)取值也小于欧洲规范(475年重现期)的相应取值。与美国AASHTO规范和加州规范Caltrans(2013)对比研究表明,由于我国规范采用了1.5的重要性系数,小震取值(50年重现期)远高于美国规范的50年重现期的设计地震水平,而与其475年重现期地震水平相当;中震水平(475年重现期)的加速度反应谱平台值略低于Caltrans(975年重现期),但是略高于AASHTO(1000年重现期),我国反应谱曲线与Caltrans大致相当,但是高于AASHTO;对于大震(2475年重现期),AASHTO(2475年重现期)的地震作用取值介于我国的7度 (0.1g) 设防与8度(0.2g)设防之间。总体来说,我国的高铁大跨桥梁的设计地震作用取值偏于保守。     

基于小波变换的苏通大桥非平稳抖振响应演变谱实测研究

台风风速具有较为明显的非平稳特征,使得非平稳风荷载作用下大跨斜拉桥的动力响应也势必表现出非平稳特性。为考察台风作用下大跨桥梁抖振响应的非平稳性,该文以苏通大桥为研究背景,采用基于小波变换的非平稳时间序列演变功率谱密度估计方法分析了该桥在“海葵”和“达维”台风期间的非平稳抖振响应。研究表明,苏通大桥主梁振动能量主要集中在若干特定频段内;由于台风风速存在非平稳性,主梁抖振响应也表现出一定程度的非平稳特征;基于小波变换的演变谱估计方法适用于开展实测结构响应的演变特性分析,可较好地弥补传统傅里叶方法用于非平稳分析的不足。研究结论可用于验证大跨度斜拉桥非平稳抖振分析理论的可靠性,同时可为大跨度斜拉桥的抗风设计提供参考。     

Coastal modelling for flood defence

This paper reviews practices and trends in hydrodynamic and statistical analyses and modelling in the Netherlands with regard to the risk of coastal flooding. We restrict ourselves to the physical phenomena of tides, storm surges and wind waves. We first give a brief outline of established policy in the Netherlands regarding accepted levels of risk of flooding, and current changes therein. This is followed by a summary of a statistical reanalysis of historical storm-surge data combined with numerical hydrodynamic modelling, aimed at improved estimates of probabilities of occurrence of extreme water levels along the Dutch coast. Recent developments concerning the physical and numerical modelling of inundation of low-lying areas are presented. State-of-the-art modelling of wind waves in coastal areas is also reviewed. Research issues in the area of coastal modelling for flood defence are indicated.     

Buffeting-induced fatigue damage assessment of a long suspension bridge

As modern suspension bridges become longer and longer, buffeting-induced fatigue damage problem for the bridges located in strong wind regions may have to be taken into consideration. Furthermore, there is a trend to install wind and structural health monitoring systems (WASHMS) to long suspension bridges for performance assessment. A systematic framework for assessing long-term buffeting-induced fatigue damage to a long suspension bridge is thus presented in this paper by integrating a few important wind/structural components with continuum damage mechanics (CDM)-based fatigue damage assessment method. By taking the Tsing Ma Bridge in Hong Kong as an example, a joint probability density function of wind speed and direction is first established based on wind data recorded by the WASHMS installed in the bridge. A structural health monitoring-oriented finite element model of the bridge and a numerical procedure for buffeting-induced stress analysis of the bridge are then used to identify stress characteristics at hot spots of critical steel members under different wind speeds and directions. The accumulative fatigue damage to the critical steel members at hot spots during the bridge design life is finally evaluated using a CDM-based fatigue damage evolution model. The proposed framework is found to be feasible and practical.