塔里木河流域适时水权管理研究

近几十年来,由于上游用水量的增加,进入塔里木河干流的水量逐年减少,导致塔里木河下游生态环境急剧恶化.为了改善下游的生态环境,完成向塔河干流输水目标的任务,塔里木河流域建立了适时水权管理系统.提出了适时水权的概念,将适时水权分为4个等级,并分别阐述了各级适时水权的确定及管理.最后举例说明了阿克苏河流域适时水权的实践情况及意义.     

塔里木盆地灌溉与环保(二期)工程塔河干流子项目对塔河下游绿色走廊的影响

为了挽救塔里木河下游绿色走廊 ,世界银行塔 (二 )项目中安排了塔河干流子项目。本文针对干流子项目工程布置的特点 ,分析研究了项目实施后对塔河下游输水的影响 ,最后得出 ,项目完成后 ,每年可从大西海子水库增加下泄 1 2亿m3 的水量 ,对下游绿色走廊生态环境将起到显著的改善作用 ,意义深远     

塔里木盆地灌溉与环保（二期）工程塔河干流子项目对塔河下游绿色走 …

为了挽救塔里木河下游绿色走廓，世界银行塔（二）项目中安排了塔河干流子项目，本文针对干流子项目工程布置的特点，分析研究了项目实施后对塔河下游输水的影响，最后得出，项目完成后，每年可从大西海子水库增加下泄１．２亿ｍ＾３的水量，对下游绿色走廓生态环境将起到显著的改善作用，意义深远。     

应急输水使塔河下游生态与社会环境明显改善

塔里木河（以下简称塔河）下游400多km的绿色走廊生态环境濒临毁灭的红色警示为世人所关注,为了拯救日益恶化的生态环境,新疆成立了塔河流域管理局,对塔河流域水资源进行统一调度,国家投资107亿元进行综合治理,塔管局充分利用开一孔河丰水年的大好时机,以及塔河治理的初步成效,连续八次成功地组织了向塔河下游的应急输水,累计调水22．45亿m^2。通过对塔河下游八次应急输水前后生态恢复情况的系统动态监测资料分析,以及生态和社会环境的野外调查和试验,证明输水后塔河下游生态和社会环境均得到明显改善。     

塔里木河下游生态应急输水方法及成效

为有效缓解塔里木河（以下简称“塔河”）下游生态进一步恶化，在塔河流域综合治理期间实施向塔河下游生态应急输水任务。项目实施后塔河下游“绿色走廊”生态有了明显改善，有效遏制了塔河下游生态环境日益恶化的趋势，对保护塔河下游生态环境及人们生存环境起到举足轻重的作用，对本地区、新疆乃至全国产生重要影响。     

新疆博斯腾湖向塔里木河下游生态应急输水问题探讨

塔里木河下游生态环境极度衰败与流域综合治理受到国内广泛关注。本文通过博期腾湖向塔河下游生态应急输水输水实践活动，在对生态极度衰败原因调查分析和应急输水成功经验总结的基础上，针对塔河水资源开发利用和管理中存在的问题，提出塔河水资源与人口，社会经济，生态环境协调发展的对策。     

新疆博斯腾湖向塔里木河下游生态应急输水问题探讨

塔里木河下游生态环境极度衰败与流域综合治理受到国内外广泛关注.本文通过博斯腾湖向塔河下游生态应急输水实践活动,在对生态极度衰败原因调查分析和应急输水成功经验总结的基础上,针对塔河水资源开发利用和管理中存在的问题,提出塔河水资源与人口、社会经济、生态环境协调发展的对策.     

塔河下游河道生态输水对气候变化的影响探讨

以塔里木河下游河道断流、生态恶化和持续性生态输水为背景,以所取得的尉犁国家级气象站1960年～2020年气温和降水资料为依据,从下游气温及降水变化、降水蒸散指数变化及干旱指数变化等方面探讨塔河下游河道生态输水对气候变化影响的进行分析.结果 表明,生态输水是恢复河道下游水生态环境、改善区域小气候的有效措施,从大西海子水库...     

塔里木河综合治理又有大动作

3月30日塔河下游第5次输水刚刚结束,今天新疆维吾尔自治区水利厅厅长王世江又宣布了一个振奋人心的消息:“今年塔河输水,不仅要保证塔河尾闾水流不断,同时要向下游老塔里木河输水,以扩大下游绿色走廊的宽度.”这一信息告诉我们,三年的塔里木河调水已经大见成效,塔里木河下游的绿洲面积不但不再萎缩,而且日益扩大.2000年5月,塔河流域综合治理工程正式启动,截止目前,共实施了5次向塔河下游绿色走廊输水工程,使断流30年的塔里木河下游河道恢复了通水,下游生态环境恶化的现象得到了有效遏制.王世江介绍,今年自治区水利厅将集中精力抓好塔河流域…     

塔里木河干流生态保护输水成效分析

通过对塔里木河下游开展生态输水,恢复河岸地带地下水环境作用,有效改善了下游生态环境,塔河干流下游距主河道1km处的地下水位,由最初的9.8～10.1m升到2.1～5.3m;地下水矿化度由5.3～7.8g/L下降到1.1～38g/L。塔河下游植被恢复和改善的面积达2285km2,其中,新增植被覆盖面积达362km2,沙地面积减少854km2,植物物种由17种增加到46种,物种多样性指数逐年增加。     

基于数字滤波法的怒江流域基流时空分异

为明晰怒江流域基流时空分异特征,利用数字滤波法进行怒江干流和南汀河支流的基流研究。结果表明:1怒江干流3站基流指数IBF在0.71~0.74之间,南汀河支流2站的多年平均IBF在0.68左右,南汀河支流IBF明显低于怒江干流,干支流基流量和IBF自上游向下游递增;2各站基流量与径流量变化过程基本一致,两者相关系数均在0.9以上;3怒江干支流各站多年平均基流量和径流量年内分配均呈"尖廋"的单峰形,而多年平均基流指数年内分配均呈"V"字形,但两者变化过程不完全相反;4怒江干流代表站道街坝站和南汀河支流代表站姑老河站IBF均为丰水年平水年枯水年,这与基流相对于径流更为稳定有关。     

Evaluating the SWAT Model for Hydrological Modeling in the Xixian Watershed and a Comparison with the XAJ Model

Already declining water availability in Huaihe River, the 6th largest river in China, is further stressed by climate change and intense human activities. There is a pressing need for a watershed model to better understand the interaction between land use activities and hydrologic processes and to support sustainable water use planning. In this study, we evaluated the performance of SWAT for hydrologic modeling in the Xixian River Basin, located at the headwaters of the Huaihe River, and compared its performance with the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model that has been widely used in China. Due to the lack of publicly available data, emphasis has been put on geospatial data collection and processing, especially on developing land use-land cover maps for the study area based on ground-truth information sampling. Ten-year daily runoff data (1987?C1996) from four stream stations were used to calibrate SWAT and XAJ. Daily runoff data from the same four stations were applied to validate model performance from 1997 to 2005. The results show that both SWAT and XAJ perform well in the Xixian River Basin, with percentage of bias (PBIAS) less than 15%, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) larger than 0.69 and coefficient of determination (R²) larger than 0.72 for both calibration and validation periods at the four stream stations. Both SWAT and XAJ can reasonably simulate surface runoff and baseflow contributions. Comparison between SWAT and XAJ shows that model performances are comparable for hydrologic modeling. For the purposes of flood forecasting and runoff simulation, XAJ requires minimum input data preparation and is preferred to SWAT. The complex, processes-based SWAT can simultaneously simulate water quantity and quality and evaluate the effects of land use change and human activities, which makes it preferable for sustainable water resource management in the Xixian watershed where agricultural activities are intensive.     

塔里木河流域水量调度决策支持系统

塔里木河流域地处西部干旱区,气候极端干旱,降雨稀少,蒸发强烈,水资源相对贫乏,生态环境脆弱.尤其是源流区用水增加致使干流来水量逐年减少,干流下游河道断流,尾闾台特玛湖干涸,具有战略意义的绿色走廊濒临消失,必须加强流域水量统一调度.现介绍了塔里木河流域水量统一调度决策支持系统,该系统具有来水预报、需水预测、调度方案编制和调度总结等功能.该系统从流域社会经济─水资源系统和河道来水─引水两个方面优化调度流域水资源,建立的水量调控模型框架和水量调度模型,能够适用于大型流域多水源、多用户复杂条件下的水量调度,具有可操作性和普适性强的特点.     

塔里木灌区引水前后环境流特性变化

基于水文改变指标基本分析方法,筛选建立了环境流评价指标,着重分析了塔里木灌区引水对塔里木河干流阿拉尔和新渠满断面环境流变化的影响。结果表明:在灌区大量引水灌溉前后,干流两个主要水文站的环境流组成分别呈现出不同程度的变化,环境流组成趋于单一化;各水文站的流量事件以枯水流量事件为主;引水对特枯流量事件、高流量脉冲事件和大洪水事件的影响较大。结合环境流指标和生态系统响应关系,制定了面向生态的水资源优化调度方案,为流域生态治理和水量分配提供了参考。     

塔里木河流域汛期地表径流变化趋势和预测分析

基于塔里木河流域三源流和干流1957-2008年实测月地表径流数据,运用Mann-Kendall非参数检验和小波变换等方法,探究三源流和干流汛期地表径流变化趋势,并建立周期性叠加趋势模型预测其2009-2025年地表径流量特征和变化趋势。结果表明:近50多年来,塔里木河源流7、8、9月地表径流均呈增加趋势,干流7、8、9月地表径流均呈减少趋势,反映出源流用水量持续增加挤占干流水资源量。根据预测,塔里木河三源流2009-2025年,7月和8月多年平均地表径流量属平偏丰水期,9月属偏丰水期;7月和9月地表径流量呈增加趋势,8月地表径流量呈下降趋势。塔里木河干流2009-2025年,7月多年平均地表径流量属平偏丰水期,8月和9月属偏丰水期;7月和8月地表径流量呈增加趋势,9月地表径流量无明显增大或减小趋势。     

金沙江流域径流特征及变化趋势分析

采用金沙江干流上、中、下游各主要水文站多年径流系列资料,分析计算了各站径流的极值比、变差系数、径流年内分配不均匀系数、集中度和集中期等反映径流年际年内变化情况的特征值。同时应用Mann-Kendall法分析检验了金沙江流域的径流长期变化趋势。研究成果表明,金沙江流域径流量的年际变化不大,上游较中下游的变化稍大,径流年内分配十分不均,上游较之中下游更不均匀;自20世纪50年代以来,在置信水平值为0.05时,金沙江干流各主要水文站的年径流系列检验值均没有突破临界值,这表明年径流系列没有显著的上升或下降趋势。     

塔里木河流域降水量的非线性时空变化对比研究及预测

基于塔里木河流域25个气象站1961-2007的实测降水量数据,本文利用Mann-Kendall、R/S分析以及小波分析和周期性叠加趋势模型对塔里木河流域降水量的非线性时空变化特征进行分析,并对未来降水量的变化做出预测。结果表明:1961-2007年之间塔里木河流域降水量整体呈增加趋势,位于塔里木河干流北侧气象站增加趋势要明显强于南侧,其中阿克苏河、迪那河、库车-渭干河和塔里木河干流流域呈极显著增加趋势;在塔里木河干流及阿克苏河源流区出现了增加率的高值中心,最大值在阿合奇,开都-孔雀河的源流区为降水量减少的高值中心,最大减少率在巴音布鲁克;塔里木河干流及子流域的Hurst指数均大于0.5,表明塔里木河流域降水量将保持较鲜明的持续性;相比较1998-2007年,迪那河流域和库车-渭干河流域降水量在2015-2020年的增加值最大。     

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the Last Fifty Years

The impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff were analyzed by the Mann–Kendall and trend analysis methods based on the hydrological, meteorological and socioeconomic data over the last 50 years in the Tarim River basin. Results show that the runoff in the headstreams increased but that in the mainstreams decreased significantly during the past 50 years. The former is a response to climate change, and the later is due to human activities. The surface runoff in the mainstreams decreased by 41.59, 63.77 and 75.15% in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, respectively, as compared to that without being disturbed by human activities in the same period. The main human activities are the irrigated agriculture combined with population increase in the region. As a consequence, the ecosystem in the lower reaches of Tarim River has degenerated, largely owing to inappropriate allocation of water resources.     

试论塔里木河流域综合治理中的水权管理

在阐述塔里木河流域水资源概况及近期综合治理目标的基础上,研究了流域水权的科学划分,确定了塔里木河流域水权分配原则,分析了塔里木河流域水权分配方案和“四源一干”天然生态水权分配方案,对塔里木河的水资源定额管理体系的建立,以及水权管理系统和水资源统一管理管理前提下的水权管理进行了阐述。所涉及的水权问题为水资源的使用权。     

Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios

Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway(RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020 s and increase in the 2030 s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050 are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from-7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.