Thermal and hydrologic suitability of Lake Erie and its major tributaries for spawning of Asian carps

Bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis, silver carp H. molitrix, and grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella (hereafter Asian carps) have expanded throughout the Mississippi River basin and threaten to invade Lakes Michigan and Erie. Adult bighead carp and grass carp have been captured in Lake Erie, but self-sustaining populations probably do not exist. We examined thermal conditions within Lake Erie to determine if Asian carps would mature, and to estimate time of year when fish would reach spawning condition. We also examined whether thermal and hydrologic conditions in the largest tributaries to western and central Lake Erie were suitable for spawning of Asian carps. We used length of undammed river, predicted summer temperatures, and predicted water velocity during flood events to determine whether sufficient lengths of river are available for spawning of Asian carps. Most rivers we examined have at least 100 km of passable river and summer temperatures suitable (> 21 C) for rapid incubation of eggs of Asian carps. Predicted water velocity and temperature were sufficient to ensure that incubating eggs, which drift in the water column, would hatch before reaching Lake Erie for most flood events in most rivers if spawned far enough upstream. The Maumee, Sandusky, and Grand Rivers were predicted to be the most likely to support spawning of Asian carps. The Black, Huron, Portage, and Vermilion Rivers were predicted to be less suitable. The weight of the evidence suggests that the largest western and central Lake Erie tributaries are thermally and hydrologically suitable to support spawning of Asian carps.     

Ecological data as a resource for invasive species management in U.S. Great Lakes coastal wetlands

The coordinated use of ecological data is critical to the proper management of invasive species in the coastal wetlands of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Researchers and government programs have been increasingly calling for the use of data in management activities to increase the likelihood of success and add transparency in decision making. Web-enabled databases have the potential to provide managers working in Great Lakes coastal wetlands with relevant data to support management decisions. To assess the potential value of these databases to managers in Laurentian Great Lakes states, we surveyed wetland managers to determine their current data usage as well as their future data interests and catalogued the online databases currently available. Surveys were disseminated via email to managers in 56 different organizations overseeing invasive species management efforts in Great Lakes coastal wetlands; 46 responses were included in this analysis. Of the survey respondents, all reported using raw biotic data for decision making, (i.e. presence of target species) but many indicated that they would prefer to incorporate a greater variety of data, as well as more complex information. Our survey found that managers used web-enabled databases, but most databases that we catalogued only provided presence data for wetland biota. We concluded that databases can provide the types of data sought by invasive species managers but have unmet potential to be integrated into responsive management processes.     

Great Lakes coastal wetlands as suitable habitat for invasive mute swans in Michigan

Great Lakes coastal wetlands provide critical habitat and food resources for more species than any other Great Lakes ecosystem. Due to past and current anthropogenic disturbances, coastal wetland area has been reduced by >50% while remaining habitat is frequently degraded. Invasive mute swans have contributed to the degradation of coastal wetlands by removing submergent vegetation and competitively excluding native species from breeding areas and food resources. Despite current control practices, mute swan population estimates in Michigan are ~8000, comparable to population estimates in the entire Atlantic Flyway of North America. We collected local abiotic data and adjacent land cover data at 3 scales from 51 sites during 2010 and 2011 and conducted 2 mute swan detection surveys each year during the summer and fall. We developed a single-species, single-season occupancy-based habitat suitability model to determine current and potential mute swan habitat among Great Lakes coastal wetlands. We found mute swans occupied heterotrophic coastal wetlands adjacent to urban areas, which were high in ammonium and oxidation-reduction potential and low in nitrates, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity. Our model provides managers with a valuable tool for rapidly identifying mute swan habitat areas for control efforts, particularly the need for targeting mute swan populations in or near urbanized areas. Our model will also aid managers in monitoring areas that mute swans may invade and prioritizing coastal wetland areas for restoration efforts.     

Status of the major aquaculture carps of China in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin

There is concern of economic and environmental damage occuring if any of the four major aquacultured carp species of China, black carp Mylopharyngodon piceus, bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis, silver carp H. molitrix, or grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella, were to establish in the Laurentian Great Lakes. All four are reproducing in the Mississippi River Basin. We review the status of these fishes in relation to the Great Lakes and their proximity to pathways into the Great Lakes, based on captures and collections of eggs and larvae. No black carp have been captured in the Great Lakes Basin. One silver carp and one bighead carp were captured within the Chicago Area Waterway System, on the Great Lakes side of electric barriers designed to keep carp from entering the Great Lakes from the greater Mississippi River Basin. Three bighead carp were captured in Lake Erie, none later than the year 2000. By December 2019, at least 650 grass carps had been captured in the Great Lakes Basin, most in western Lake Erie, but none in Lake Superior. Grass carp reproduction has been documented in the Sandusky and Maumee rivers in Ohio, tributaries of Lake Erie. We also discuss environmental DNA (eDNA) results as an early detection and monitoring tool for bighead and silver carps. Detection of eDNA does not necessarily indicate presence of live fish, but bigheaded carp eDNA has been detected on the Great Lakes side of the barriers and in a small proportion of samples from the western basin of Lake Erie.     

The effects of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing participation and value in the Great Lakes: Possible future scenarios

The impacts of aquatic invasive species (AIS) on the recreational fishery in the Laurentian Great Lakes are of concern to managers and policy makers. Some AIS have the potential to depress sportfish populations, reducing recreational fishing opportunities and damaging local economies. Alternatives that could reduce the threat of AIS could be costly. Assessments of how AIS could affect recreational fishing participation and the economic value derived from it would contribute to the evaluation of these alternatives. We assessed best-case and worst-case scenarios for how a range of AIS could affect recreational fishing participation and economic value. We utilized previously developed scenarios for how AIS could affect sportfish populations as input for a recreational fishing model developed by Ready et al. (2018). Their model estimated changes in fishing participation and economic value from such scenarios. Given uncertainty in how AIS could affect sportfish, projected effects of AIS on economic value varied widely, with some scenarios likely to have minimal effects and others leading to losses of over $100 million annually. None of the scenarios would lead to a large percentage decrease in recreational fishing in the eight Great Lake states, largely because anglers have numerous inland fishing opportunities. Nevertheless, lakeshore communities dependent on Great Lakes fishing could still suffer considerable economic loss. Collectively the economic valuation of the range of scenarios narrows down the possible impacts on fishing and the economy that decision makers need to consider.     

Phenology and species diversity in a Lake Huron ichthyoplankton community: Ecological implications of invasive species dominance

Ichthyoplankton communities are dynamic and vary spatiotemporally based on factors such as wind, water currents, and phenology. Nonetheless, ichthyoplankton are an indicator of spawning success in fish populations and examining their community diversity and composition can serve to provide information on ecosystem integrity. Although some ichthyoplankton species may be transient, understanding their distribution in space and time provides information on species composition, abundance, and habitat use during critical early life stages. We sampled the spring-summer ichthyoplankton community during 2008 and 2009 in northern Lake Huron to determine species succession, abundance, and species diversity along physical and environmental gradients. Seasonal succession of species was similar during both years, indicating well-defined patterns in spawning by northern Lake Huron fish populations. Invasive alewife, rainbow smelt, and round goby were the dominant species during both years, with native stickleback species also abundant. Shannon Entropy (H′) increased with increasing water temperature until late summer when H′ declined. H′ decreased with increasing bottom depth and distance to tributary mouth indicating the important ecological role of these habitat features during early life stages. Although ichthyoplankton diversity was comparable to or higher than that reported for other areas of the Great Lakes, the prominence of invasive species in our study is reflective of the disturbed state of the Lake Huron fish community, despite large reductions in invasive planktivorous fish since 2004. Continued monitoring of ichthyoplankton communities will be important for measuring the impacts of species invasions or other ecosystem stressors on fish community structure in the Great Lakes.     

An evaluation of statistical methods for estimating abundances of migrating adult sea lamprey

We evaluated statistical methods for estimating abundances of adult sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) migrating in Great Lakes tributaries. The sea lamprey is the target of a basin-wide, bi-national control program. Abundance estimates from mark-recapture data are used to evaluate program success and the efficiency of sea lamprey trapping. Recent tracking studies suggested the mark-recapture estimates of abundance could be biased. We compared four estimators of abundance using stratified (weekly) mark-recapture data for 19?years of trapping in the St. Marys River. Abundances from the pooled Petersen estimator were similar to abundances from the stratified Schaefer and stratified Petersen estimators, but substantially lower than abundances from a stratified Bayesian P-spline estimator. In simulations of virtual populations, pooled Petersen and Bayesian P-spline estimates were similar across a range of conditions where catchability differed between marked and unmarked lamprey and changed over the trapping season, with one exception. Abundances from the Bayesian P-spline estimator were strongly positively biased when catchability of marked lamprey increased over the season, while catchability of unmarked lamprey did not. Estimates from both estimators were negatively biased when lamprey displayed consistent individual differences in catchability and positively biased when a proportion of marked lamprey fell back. Discrepancies between mark-recapture and tracking studies cannot be reconciled by the choice of abundance estimator, but could be an outcome of bias due to individual differences in catchability. Sea lamprey managers could also switch from the stratified Schaefer to the pooled Petersen estimator to simplify field operations without losing accuracy and precision.     

Salinity tolerance of the invasive round goby: Experimental implications for seawater ballast exchange and spread to North American estuaries

The Eurasian round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) invaded the freshwater North American Great Lakes in ~ 1990 via accidental introduction from ballast water discharge. Its genotypes in the Great Lakes traced to estuaries in the northern Black Sea, where the round goby flourishes in a variety of salinities to 22 parts per thousand (ppt). To prevent further introductions, U.S. and Canadian Coast Guard regulations now require that vessels exchange ballast water at sea before entering the Great Lakes. Since salinity tolerance of the invasive round goby population is poorly understood, we tested 230 laboratory-acclimated fish in three experimental scenarios: (1) rapid salinity increases (0–40 ppt), simulating ballast water exchange, (2) step-wise salinity increases, as during estuarine tidal fluxes or migration from fresh to saltwater, and (3) long-term survivorship and growth (to 4 months) at acclimated salinities. Almost all gobies survived experiments at 0–20 ppt, whereas none survived ≥ 30 ppt, and at 25 ppt only 15% withstood rapid changes and 30% survived step-wise increases. Ventilation frequencies were lowest at 10–15 ppt in step-wise experiments, in conditions that were near isotonic with fish internal plasma concentrations, reflecting lower energy expenditure for osmoregulation. Growth rates appeared greatest at 5–10 ppt, congruent with the larger sizes reached by gobies in Eurasian brackish waters. Thus, we predict that the Great Lakes round goby would thrive in brackish water estuaries along North American coasts, if introduced. However, oceanic salinities appear fatal to the invasive round goby, which likely cannot withstand complete seawater ballast exchanges or oceanic habitats.     

Contribution of manipulable and non-manipulable environmental factors to trapping efficiency of invasive sea lamprey

We identified aspects of the trapping process that afforded opportunities for improving trap efficiency of invasive sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in a Great Lake's tributary. Capturing a sea lamprey requires it to encounter the trap, enter, and be retained until removed. Probabilities of these events depend on the interplay between sea lamprey behavior, environmental conditions, and trap design. We first tested how strongly seasonal patterns in daily trap catches (a measure of trapping success) were related to nightly rates of trap encounter, entry, and retention (outcomes of sea lamprey behavior). We then tested the degree to which variation in rates of trap encounter, entry, and retention were related to environmental features that control agents can manipulate (attractant pheromone addition, discharge) and features agents cannot manipulate (water temperature, season), but could be used as indicators for when to increase trapping effort. Daily trap catch was most strongly associated with rate of encounter. Relative and absolute measures of predictive strength for environmental factors that managers could potentially manipulate were low, suggesting that opportunities to improve trapping success by manipulating factors that affect rates of encounter, entry, and retention are limited. According to results at this trap, more sea lamprey would be captured by increasing trapping effort early in the season when sea lamprey encounter rates with traps are high. The approach used in this study could be applied to trapping of other invasive or valued species.     

100 years of sea lampreys above Niagara Falls: A reflection on what happened and what we learned

In the one hundred years since sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) were discovered in Lake Erie, the species completed its invasion throughout the Great Lakes basin, contributed to the downfall of the commercial fishing industry, and served as a catalyst for the development of the collaborative fishery management regime that exists today. The sea lamprey invasion simultaneously caused wide-spread devastation while giving rise to a collective realization that the health of the Great Lakes would require ongoing cooperation among governments, scientists, and users of the resource. Since its inception, the effort to control sea lampreys in the Great Lakes has been defined by a “shoot for the moon” mentality. The desperation of communities directly harmed by the sea lamprey invasion, coupled with the determination and unyielding commitment to science by those tasked with addressing the problem, led to the formation of the only reported successful aquatic vertebrate invasive species control program at an ecosystem scale.     

Investigating population genetics of invasive rainbow smelt in the Great Lakes Region

Increasing our understanding of invasive species is important because of the negative impacts they can have on the economies and ecosystems of invaded regions. There is growing interest in how environmental variability (e.g. temperature) and stochastic invasion events (e.g. founder effects) affect the genetic composition of populations of invasive species. Rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) are a cold-water, planktivorous fish that spread into the Great Lakes basin in the early 1900s. We performed genetic analyses using microsatellites (N = 10) to investigate the influence stochastic invasion events have had on the genetic composition of invasive rainbow smelt populations across a broad geographic range. Genetic analyses were conducted on rainbow smelt populations (N = 30/population) from Lake Ontario, Lake Michigan, Lake Superior, and four inland lakes in Northern Wisconsin. Populations from the Great Lakes were generally less differentiated than inland populations. Additionally, we found evidence of a significant bottleneck in two inland populations and evidence for two distinct genetic strains of rainbow smelt in Lake Ontario. We also performed genetic analyses using microsatellites to determine if a thermally-induced extreme mortality event had an effect on a population of rainbow smelt and found that there was no measurable genetic effect on the population. Overall, this study provides evidence that the genetic structure and diversity of introduced populations can vary significantly, and are likely influenced by factors such as the frequency and magnitude of introductions. Also the resiliency of an invasive species can be high despite a history of bottlenecks and low genetic diversity.     

Acoustically derived habitat associations of sympatric invasive bigheaded carps in a large river ecosystem

Bigheaded carp (Hypophthalmichthys spp.) occur throughout much of the Mississippi Basin, USA. Efforts to control the spread of these invasive species require information on their spatial ecology, though sampling is hindered by their broad extent, habitat tolerances, and species‐specific behaviour. Mobile hydroacoustics was used to quantify habitat and depth use of bigheaded carp over four years in the heavily invaded Lower Illinois River, a major Mississippi tributary and potential dispersal pathway to the Great Lakes. Horizontally oriented transducers (combined with capture gear for species designation) enabled sampling of the main habitat features in this large flood plain river. Silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) were dominant over bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) at all but one site, although habitat use was similar for both species. Densities were highest in lotic backwaters, followed by lentic backwaters and nearshore main channel, with lowest densities in the mid main channel. Bigheaded carp size and species composition were independent of habitat type. Depth associations were similar for both species, with average occurrence at 2.5–3.5 m in the main channel and 1–2 m in backwaters. However, depth relative to the river bed was largely similar across habitat types. Bigheaded carp density and depth use in the main channel were linked non‐linearly to river discharge and water temperature, respectively; densities were reduced during high discharge, whereas depth use became shallower at higher temperatures. Density–hydrology trends were less apparent in backwaters. These findings highlight critical aspects of bigheaded carp spatial ecology that will facilitate effective management in invaded and at‐risk ecosystems.     

Effectiveness of Piscicides for Controlling Round Gobies (Neogobius melanostomus)

Round gobies (Neogobius melanostomus) were introduced to the Great Lakes presumably as a result of ballast water releases from seagoing freighters returning from European water bodies. These unwelcome fish have become established in the Great Lakes region and are expanding their range to suitable portions of other interior drainage basins including the Mississippi River traversing the central United States and the Trent-Severn waterway spanning south-central Ontario. If the invasion continues, use of chemical toxicants as a control measure may be necessary. Toxicity tests of the currently registered piscicides antimycin, rotenone, 3-trifluoromethyl-4-nitrophenol (TFM), and Bayluscide^® were conducted with three fish species native to the Great Lakes and round gobies collected from the Illinois Waterway. Tests indicated that round gobies are sensitive to all of the piscicides, however, the level of sensitivity is similar to that of the native fish species tested. Therefore, currently registered piscicides have limited potential to selectively remove round gobies. Bottom-release formulations of Bayluscide^® and antimycin were also evaluated as control agents for the normally bottom-dwelling round goby. Avoidance behavior tests demonstrated that the round goby did not react to the presence of either chemical. Therefore, the bottom-release formulations may have some application for the selective removal of round gobies, and may be one of the few tools presently available to fishery managers to help limit the range expansion of this invasive fish.     

Tributary use and large-scale movements of grass carp in Lake Erie

Infrequent captures of invasive, non-native grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) have occurred in Lake Erie over the last 30+ years, with recent evidence suggesting wild reproduction in the lake’s western basin (WB) is occurring. Information on grass carp movements in the Laurentian Great Lakes is lacking, but an improved understanding of large-scale movements and potential areas of aggregation will help inform control strategies and risk assessment if grass carp spread to other parts of Lake Erie and other Great Lakes. Twenty-three grass carp captured in Lake Erie’s WB were implanted with acoustic transmitters and released. Movements were monitored with acoustic receivers deployed throughout Lake Erie and elsewhere in the Great Lakes. Grass carp dispersed up to 236 km, with approximately 25% of fish dispersing greater than 100 km from their release location. Mean daily movements ranged from <0.01 to 2.49 km/day, with the highest daily averages occurring in the spring and summer. The Sandusky, Detroit, and Maumee Rivers, and Plum Creek were the most heavily used WB tributaries. Seventeen percent of grass carp moved into Lake Erie’s central or eastern basins, although all fish eventually returned to the WB. One fish emigrated from Lake Erie through the Huron-Erie Corridor and into Lake Huron. Based on our results, past assessments may have underestimated the potential for grass carp to spread in the Great Lakes. We recommend focusing grass carp control efforts on Sandusky River and Plum Creek given their high use by tagged fish, and secondarily on Maumee and Detroit Rivers.     

Spatiotemporal relationships between life stages of the invasive ctenophore,Mnemiopsis leidyi,and environmental parameters in the southern Caspian Sea

Spatiotemporal relationships between developmental stages (cydippid, transition and adult) of the comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi and environmental parameters were seasonally evaluated using the random forest (RF) model along the Iranian coasts of the Caspian Sea. The mean density of M. leidyi in spring, summer, autumn and winter were 8, 54, 130, and 15 ind m⁻³, respectively. The density of various stages, particularly cydippid, showed a decreasing trend with increase in depth. Cydippids had the highest abundance with a lower percentage in the deeper layers and colder seasons. Temperature was found to be the most influential parameter on the distribution of M. leidyi’s life stages, particularly cydippids, with a stronger effect in spring and summer. The highest densities for all life stages were observed above 20 °C with an explosive growth at above 25 °C for the cydippids. Moreover, cydippids were strongly influenced by all the three stages of the copepod Acartia tonsa (nauplius, copepodite and adult), especially its later developmental stages. Due to the presence of M. leidyi, the maximum zooplankton abundance has shifted to cold seasons. There was also a relationship between M. leidyi with barnacle larvae and rotifers in the cold seasons. The interrelationships among the life stages of M. leidyi, particularly between the transition and cydippid, was a major factor in its population dynamics. The relationship curves between these environmental parameters and the life stages of M. leidyi were nonlinear and mostly sigmoidal (not absolutely linear). The magnitude of parameter importance and relationships curves varied with season and life stage.     

Round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) and native fishes as potential nest predators of centrarchid species in the upper St. Lawrence River

Widespread invasion of Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus) throughout the Great Lakes has raised concerns regarding increased egg predation on fish species. To better understand nest predation, we examined nesting habitat selected by three upper St. Lawrence River Centrarchid species and the predator assemblage at nests during the 2011 and 2012 egg incubation and larval periods. Following removal of guarding males by angling, 5-min observations were used to identify and enumerate predators at rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris; n = 81), pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus; n = 80), and smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu; n = 40) nests. Differences in nesting habitat among centrarchids corresponded with differences in nest predator assemblages along a gradient defined primarily by depth and substrate. Pumpkinseed nests in shallow depths with soft substrate were visited principally by minnow spp., but few round goby. Smallmouth bass nests at greater depth with hard substrates were frequented nearly exclusively by round goby, while rock bass nests at intermediate depth with a mix of hard and soft substrates were visited by round goby and yellow perch (Perca flavescens). Rock bass nests had a higher predator burden than pumpkinseed nests in 2011, but no differences were observed among centrarchid species in 2012. Round goby were a major component of the predators at rock bass and smallmouth bass nests. However, predation burden imposed by yellow perch was higher than round goby at rock bass nests. We conclude nesting habitat selection influences native and non-native egg predator assemblages, but whether round goby predation is additive or compensatory remains unclear.     

Laboratory evaluation of spawning substrate type on potential egg predation by round goby (Neogobius melanostomus)

Spawning habitat structure may protect demersal eggs of broadcast spawning species from depredation. Egg predation by round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) is commonly referenced as a concern associated with their invasion of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Whereas nest-building species have received some attention in egg predation studies, broadcast spawning species may be particularly vulnerable as they do not guard their eggs. This study used a 2?×?7 factorial experiment to investigate how substrate characteristics influenced the rate that fertilized eggs are lost when exposed to round goby. Eggs for two recreationally important broadcast spawning species, northern pike (Esox lucius) and muskellunge (Esox masquinongy), were placed within spawning habitat treatments (bare, silt, sand, rubble, gravel, filamentous algae, and submerged aquatic vegetation) representing a range (least to most complex) of habitat complexity. Regardless of substrate type, egg loss was similar between the two esocid species. Across all substrates and species, the number of eggs lost varied two-fold over the 24-hour experiment, with the lowest rate of egg loss observed in the most complex substrate (submerged aquatic vegetation) and the highest over the least complex substrates (bare and silt). Both northern pike and muskellunge are known to spawn over structurally complex submerged aquatic vegetation and filamentous algae. Although eggs spawned over these substrates likely offer some protection from predation, eggs that settle over less complex ancillary habitats may face higher predation risk.     

Implications of tagging effects for interpreting the performance of sea lamprey traps in a large river

Abundance estimates can be crucial for managing species of economic concern. The accuracy of these estimates can depend on the methods used to track animals and to estimate abundance from tracking data. We tested experimentally if disparate estimates of trapping efficiency calculated for sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in the St. Marys River near Sault Ste. Marie, Canada could be explained by effects related to the invasiveness and handling involved in tagging or the tag size used in the marking procedures. Trapping is used to gauge adult abundance, trapping efficiency, and success of a binational sea lamprey control program in the Laurentian Great Lakes, North America. Our experiment compared nightly catches of sea lamprey marked with external fin clips, surgically-implanted passive integrated transponder tags (PIT-only), and surgically-implanted PIT and acoustic tags (PIT+acoustic). We found no evidence that the probability of being trapped was affected by the added invasiveness and handling of internal tagging. Nightly recaptures of PIT-only tagged sea lamprey, relative to fin-clipped sea lamprey, were not different from expectations based on the numbers of individuals released from each treatment group. Conversely, there was evidence of effects related to tag size. Nightly recaptures of PIT+acoustic tagged sea lamprey, relative to PIT-only tagged sea lamprey, were lower than expected based on numbers of individuals released from each treatment group. Effects related to tag size partially explain the disparate estimates in trapping efficiency observed for sea lamprey.     

Do native predators feed on non-native prey? The case of round goby in a fluvial piscivorous fish assemblage

We evaluated whether or not the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) represents an important prey source for seven native fish predators in Lake St. Pierre (St. Lawrence River, Canada). The frequency of occurrence of round goby in the stomach contents of brown bullhead (Ameiurus nebulosus) and channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) was very low (< 5%), while for the five other predators, it varied between 22% (yellow perch; Perca flavescens) and 65% (sauger; Sander canadensis). Several competing models linking the probability of occurrence of round goby in stomach contents to variables related to space, physical habitat, biotic interactions and predator size were tested for the five species feeding on round goby. Results indicated that space variables influenced round goby occurrence in stomachs for all species. In addition, physical habitat variables had an influence for sauger and walleye (Sander vitreus); biotic variables had an influence for yellow perch, walleye and sauger; and size had an influence for northern pike (Esox lucius), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) and walleye. These results are discussed in light of known biological features of the round goby and native predators studied here and have important implications in terms of understanding round goby invasion success in the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence system.