A new design of evolutionary hybrid optimization of SVR model in predicting the blast-induced ground vibration

This study aims to identify the suitability of hybridizing the firefly algorithm (FA), genetic algorithm (GA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) with two well-known data-driven models of support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) to predict blast-induced ground vibration. Here, these combinations are abbreviated using FA–SVR, PSO–SVR, GA–SVR, FA–ANN, PSO–ANN, and GA–ANN models. In addition, a modified FA (MFA) combined with SVR model is also proposed in this study, namely, MFA–SVR. The feasibility of the proposed models is examined using a case study, located in Johor, Malaysia. Then, to provide an objective assessment of performances of the predictive models, their results were compared based on several well known and popular statistical criteria. According to the results, the MFA–SVR with the coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.984 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.614 was more accurate model to predict PPV than the PSO–SVR with R² = 0.977 and RMSE = 0.725, the FA–SVR with R² = 0.964 and RMSE = 0.923, the GA–SVR with R² = 0.957 and RMSE = 1.016, the GA–ANN with R² = 0.936 and RMSE = 1.252, the FA–ANN with R² = 0.925 and RMSE = 1.368, and the PSO–ANN with R² = 0.924 and RMSE = 1.366. Consequently, the MFA–SVR model can be sufficiently employed in estimating the ground vibration, and has the capacity to generalize.

     

A novel artificial intelligence technique for analyzing slope stability using PSO-CA model

This study aims to develop a new artificial intelligence model for analyzing and evaluating slope stability in open-pit mines. Indeed, a novel hybrid intelligent technique based on an optimization of the cubist algorithm by an evolutionary method (i.e., PSO), namely PSO-CA technique, was developed for predicting the factor of safety (FS) in slope stability; 450 simulations from the Geostudio software for the FS of a quarry mine (Vietnam) were used as the datasets for this aim. Five factors include bench height, slope angle, angle of internal friction, cohesion, and unit weight were used as the input variables for estimating FS in this work. To clarify the performance of the proposed PSO-CA technique in slope stability analysis, SVM, CART, and kNN models were also developed and assessed. Three performance indices, such as mean absolute error (MAE), root-mean-squared error (RMSE), and determination coefficient (R²), were computed to evaluate the accuracy of the predictive models. The results clarified that the proposed PSO-CA technique was the most dominant accuracy with an MAE of 0.009, RMSE of 0.025, and R² of 0.981, in estimating the stability of slope. The remaining models (i.e., SVM, CART, kNN) obtained poorer performance with MAE from 0.014 to 0.038, RMSE 0.030–0.056, and R² 0.917–0.974.

     

A new hybrid ANFIS–PSO model for prediction of peak particle velocity due to bench blasting

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for predicting peak particle velocity (PPV) due to bench blasting in open pit mines. The proposed approach is based on the combination of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). In this approach, the PSO is used to improve the performance of ANFIS. Furthermore, a model is developed based on support vector regression (SVR) approach. The models are trained and tested based on actual data compiled from 120 blast rounds in Sarcheshmeh copper mine. To determine the accuracy and efficiency of ANFIS–PSO and SVR models, a statistical model (USBM equation) is applied. According to the obtained results, both techniques can be used to predict the PPV, but the comparison of models shows that the ANFIS–PSO model provides better results. Root mean square error (RMSE), variance account for (VAF), and coefficient of determination (R ²) indices were obtained as 1.83, 93.37 and 0.957 for ANFIS–PSO model, respectively.     

GA-SVR: a novel hybrid data-driven model to simulate vertical load capacity of driven piles

Piles are widely applied to substructures of various infrastructural buildings. Soil has a complex nature; thus, a variety of empirical models have been proposed for the prediction of the bearing capacity of piles. The aim of this study is to propose a novel artificial intelligent approach to predict vertical load capacity of driven piles in cohesionless soils using support vector regression (SVR) optimized by genetic algorithm (GA). To the best of our knowledge, no research has been developed the GA-SVR model to predict vertical load capacity of driven piles in different timescales as of yet, and the novelty of this study is to develop a new hybrid intelligent approach in this field. To investigate the efficacy of GA-SVR model, two other models, i.e., SVR and linear regression models, are also used for a comparative study. According to the obtained results, GA-SVR model clearly outperformed the SVR and linear regression models by achieving less root mean square error (RMSE) and higher coefficient of determination (R²). In other words, GA-SVR with RMSE of 0.017 and R² of 0.980 has higher performance than SVR with RMSE of 0.035 and R² of 0.912, and linear regression model with RMSE of 0.079 and R² of 0.625.

     

Improvement of time forecasting models using a novel hybridization of bootstrap and double bootstrap artificial neural networks

Hybrid models such as the Artificial Neural Network-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ANN–ARIMA) model are widely used in forecasting. However, inaccuracies and inefficiency remain in evidence. To yield the ANN–ARIMA with a higher degree of accuracy, efficiency and precision, the bootstrap and the double bootstrap methods are commonly used as alternative methods through the reconstruction of an ANN–ARIMA standard error. Unfortunately, these methods have not been applied in time series-based forecasting models. The aims of this study are twofold. First, is to propose the hybridization of bootstrap model and that of double bootstrap mode called Bootstrap Artificial Neural Network-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (B-ANN–ARIMA) and Double Bootstrap Artificial Neural Network-Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (DB-ANN–ARIMA), respectively. Second, is to investigate the performance of these proposed models by comparing them with ARIMA, ANN and ANN–ARIMA. Our investigation is based on three well-known real datasets, i.e., Wolf’s sunspot data, Canadian lynx data and, Malaysia ringgit/United States dollar exchange rate data. Statistical analysis on SSE, MSE, RMSE, MAE, MAPE and VAF is then conducted to verify that the proposed models are better than previous ARIMA, ANN and ANN–ARIMA models. The empirical results show that, compared with ARIMA, ANNs and ANN–ARIMA models, the proposed models generate smaller values of SSE, MSE, RMSE, MAE, MAPE and VAF for both training and testing datasets. In other words, the proposed models are better than those that we compare with. Their forecasting values are closer to the actual values. Thus, we conclude that the proposed models can be used to generate better forecasting values with higher degree of accuracy, efficiency and, precision in forecasting time series results becomes a priority.     

Assessing the efficacy of Landsat-8 OLI imagery derived models for remotely estimating chlorophyll-a concentration in the Upper Ganga River,India

ABSTRACT

Chlorophyll-a (chl-a) serves as an indicator of productivity in surface water. Estimating chl-a concentration is pivotal for monitoring and subsequent conservation of surface water quality. Artificial neural network (ANN) based models were validated and tested for their efficacy against various regression models to determine the chl-a concentration in the Upper Ganga river. Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) surface reflectance (SR) imagery for May and October along with in-situ data over a period of 2 years (2016–2017) was used to develop and validated models. Regression model performance was acceptable with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.57, 0.63, 0.66 and 0.68 for linear, exponential, logarithmic and power model, respectively. However, there was a significant improvement in the efficacy of chl-a determination using ANN model performance having a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.52 µg l^–1 and R² = 0.97 in comparison to the best-performing regression model (power) with RMSE = 9.86 µg l^–1 and R² = 0.68. ANN exhibited comparatively more precise spatial and seasonal variability with mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.26 µg l^–1 as compared to the best regression model (power) MAE = 7.98 µg l^–1 suggesting the applicability of ANN for large-scale spatial and temporal monitoring river stretches using Landsat-8 OLI SR images.     

Application of improved support vector regression model for prediction of deformation modulus of a rock mass

Deformation modulus of a rock mass is one of the crucial parameters used in the design of surface and underground rock engineering structures. Determination of this parameter by testing cylindrical core samples is almost impossible due to the presence of discontinuities. Due to the problems in determining the deformability of jointed rock masses at the laboratory-scale, various in situ test methods such as plate loading tests, dilatometer etc. have been developed. Although these methods are currently the best techniques, they are expensive and time-consuming, and present operational problems. To overcome this difficulty, in this paper, presents the results of the application of hybrid support vector regression (SVR) with harmony search algorithm , differential evolution algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO). The optimized models were applied to available data given in open source literature and the performance of optimization algorithm was assessed by virtue of statistical criteria. In these models, rock mass rating (RMR), depth, uniaxial compressive strength of intact rock (UCS) and elastic modulus of intact rock (E _i) were utilized as the input parameters, while the deformation modulus of a rock mass was the output parameter. The comparative results revealed that hybrid of PSO and SVR yield robust model which outperform other models in term of higher squared correlation coefficient (R ²) and variance account for (VAF) and lower mean square error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).     

Precipitation forecasting by using wavelet-support vector machine conjunction model

A new wavelet-support vector machine conjunction model for daily precipitation forecast is proposed in this study. The conjunction method combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and support vector machine, is compared with the single support vector machine for one-day-ahead precipitation forecasting. Daily precipitation data from Izmir and Afyon stations in Turkey are used in the study. The root mean square errors (RMSE), mean absolute errors (MAE), and correlation coefficient (R) statistics are used for the comparing criteria. The comparison results indicate that the conjunction method could increase the forecast accuracy and perform better than the single support vector machine. For the Izmir and Afyon stations, it is found that the conjunction models with RMSE=46.5 mm, MAE=13.6 mm, R=0.782 and RMSE=21.4 mm, MAE=9.0 mm, R=0.815 in test period is superior in forecasting daily precipitations than the best accurate support vector regression models with RMSE=71.6 mm, MAE=19.6 mm, R=0.276 and RMSE=38.7 mm, MAE=14.2 mm, R=0.103, respectively. The ANN method was also employed for the same data set and found that there is a slight difference between ANN and SVR methods.     

Estimating aboveground biomass of a mangrove plantation on the Northern coast of Vietnam using machine learning techniques with an integration of ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 and Sentinel-2A data

ABSTRACT

Aboveground biomass (AGB) of mangrove forest plays a crucial role in global carbon cycle by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change impacts. Monitoring mangrove forests biomass accurately still remains challenging compared to other forest ecosystems. We investigated the usability of machine learning techniques for the estimation of AGB of mangrove plantation at a coastal area of Hai Phong city (Vietnam). The study employed a GIS database and support vector regression (SVR) to build and verify a model of AGB, drawing upon data from a survey in 25 sampling plots and an integration of Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 Phased Array Type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar-2 (ALOS-2 PALSAR-2) dual-polarization horizontal transmitting and horizontal receiving (HH) and horizontal transmitting and vertical receiving (HV) and Sentinel-2A multispectral data. The performance of the model was assessed using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R²), and leave-one-out cross-validation. Usability of the SVR model was assessed by comparing with four state-of-the-art machine learning techniques, i.e. radial basis function neural networks, multi-layer perceptron neural networks, Gaussian process, and random forest. The SVR model shows a satisfactory result (R² = 0.596, RMSE = 0.187, MAE = 0.123) and outperforms the four machine learning models. The SVR model-estimated AGB ranged between 36.22 and 230.14 Mg ha^?1 (average = 87.67 Mg ha^?1). We conclude that an integration of ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 and Sentinel-2A data used with SVR model can improve the AGB accuracy estimation of mangrove plantations in tropical areas.     

Optimization of ANFIS with GA and PSO estimating α ratio in driven piles

This study aimed to optimize Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inferences System (ANFIS) with two optimization algorithms, namely, Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for the calculation friction capacity ratio (α) in driven shafts. Various studies are shown that both ANFIS are valuable methods for prediction of engineering problems. However, optimizing ANFIS with GA and PSO has not been used in the area of pile engineering. The training data set was collected from available full-scale results of the driven piles. The input parameters used in this study were pile diameter (m), pile length (m), relative density (I_d), embedment ratio (L/D), both of the pile end resistance (q_c) and base resistance at relatively 10% base settlement (q_b0.1) from CPT result, whereas the output was α. A learning fuzzy-based algorithm was used to train the ANFIS model in the MATLAB software. The system was optimized by changing the number of clusters in the FIS and then the output was used for the GA and PSO optimization algorithm. The prediction was compared with the real-monitoring field data. As a result, good agreement was attained representing reliability of all proposed models. The estimated results for the collected database were assessed based on several statistical indices such as R², RMSE, and VAF. According to R², RMSE, and VAF, values of (0.9439, 0.0123 and 99.91), (0.9872, 0.0117 and 99.99), and (0.9605, 0.0119 and 99.97) were obtained for testing data sets of the optimized ANFIS, GA–ANFIS, and PSO–ANFIS predictive models, respectively. This indicates higher reliability of the optimized GA–ANFIS model in estimating α ratio in driven shafts.

     

Several non-linear models in estimating air-overpressure resulting from mine blasting

This research presents several non-linear models including empirical, artificial neural network (ANN), fuzzy system and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to estimate air-overpressure (AOp) resulting from mine blasting. For this purpose, Miduk copper mine, Iran was investigated and results of 77 blasting works were recorded to be utilized for AOp prediction. In the modeling procedure of this study, results of distance from the blast-face and maximum charge per delay were considered as predictors. After constructing the non-linear models, several performance prediction indices, i.e. root mean squared error (RMSE), variance account for (VAF), and coefficient of determination (R ²) and total ranking method are examined to choose the best predictive models and evaluation of the obtained results. It is obtained that the ANFIS model is superior to other utilized techniques in terms of R ², RMSE, VAF and ranking herein. As an example, RMSE values of 5.628, 3.937, 3.619 and 2.329 were obtained for testing datasets of empirical, ANN, fuzzy and ANFIS models, respectively, which indicate higher performance capacity of the ANFIS technique to estimate AOp compared to other implemented methods.     

Assessment of composite beam performance using GWO–ELM metaheuristic algorithm

Composite beams (CBs) include concrete slabs jointed to the steel parts by the shear connectors, which highly popular in modern structures such as high rise buildings and bridges. This study has investigated the structural behavior of simply supported CBs in which a concrete slab is jointed to a steel beam by headed stud shear connector. Determining the behavior of CB through empirical study except its costly process can also lead to inaccurate results. In this case, AI models as metaheuristic algorithms could be effectively used for solving difficult optimization problems, such as Genetic algorithm, Differential evolution, Firefly algorithm, Cuckoo search algorithm, etc. This research has used hybrid Extreme machine learning (ELM)–Grey wolf optimizer (GWO) to determine the general behavior of CB. Two models (ELM and GWO) and a hybrid algorithm (GWO–ELM) were developed and the results were compared through the regression parameters of determination coefficient (R²) and root mean square (RMSE). In testing phase, GWO with the RMSE value of 2.5057 and R² value of 1.2510, ELM with the RMSE value of 4.52 and R² value of 1.927, and GWO–ELM with the RMSE value of 0.9340 and R² value of 0.9504 have demonstrated that the hybrid of GWO–ELM could indicate better performance compared to solo ELM and GWO models. In this case, GWO–ELM could determine the general behavior of CB faster, more accurate and with the least error percentages, so the hybrid of GWO–ELM is more reliable model than ELM and GWO in this study.

     

Predicting discharge coefficient of triangular labyrinth weir using extreme learning machine,artificial neural network and genetic programming

Weirs are a type of hydraulic structure used to direct and transfer water flows in the canals and overflows in the dams. The important index in computing flow discharge over the weir is discharge coefficient (C _d). The aim of this study is accurate determination of the C _d in triangular labyrinth side weirs by applying three intelligence models [i.e., artificial neural network (ANN), genetic programming (GP) and extreme learning machine (ELM)]. The calculated discharge coefficients were then compared with some experimental results. In order to examine the accuracy of C _d predictions by ANN, GP and ELM methods, five statistical indices including coefficient of determination (R ²), root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), SI and δ have been used. Results showed that R ² values in the ELM, ANN and GP methods were 0.993, 0.886 and 0.884, respectively, at training stage and 0.971, 0.965 and 0.963, respectively, at test stage. The ELM method, having MAPE, RMSE, SI and δ values of 0.81, 0.0059, 0.0082 and 0.81, respectively, at the training stage and 0.89, 0.0063, 0.0089 and 0.88, respectively, at the test stage, was superior to ANN and GP methods. The ANN model ranked next to the ELM model.

     

Performance evaluation of hybrid FFA-ANFIS and GA-ANFIS models to predict particle size distribution of a muck-pile after blasting

Accurately predicting the particle size distribution of a muck-pile after blasting is always an important subject for mining industry. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has emerged as a synergic intelligent system. The main contribution of this paper is to optimize the premise and consequent parameters of ANFIS by firefly algorithm (FFA) and genetic algorithm (GA). To the best of our knowledge, no research has been published that assesses FFA and GA with ANFIS for fragmentation prediction and no research has tested the efficiency of these models to predict the fragmentation in different time scales as of yet. To show the effectiveness of the proposed ANFIS-FFA and ANFIS-GA models, their modelling accuracy has been compared with ANFIS, support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN). Intelligence predictions of fragmentation by ANFIS-FFA, ANFIS-GA, ANFIS, SVR and ANN are compared with observed values of fragmentation available in 88 blasting event of two quarry mines, Iran. According to the results, both ANFIS-FFA and ANFIS-GA prediction models performed satisfactorily; however, the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and the highest correlation of determination (R²) values were obtained from ANFIS-GA model. The values of R² and RMSE obtained from ANFIS-GA, ANFIS-FFA, ANFIS, SVR and ANN models were equal to (0.989, 0.974), (0.981, 1.249), (0.956, 1.591), (0.924, 2.016) and (0.948, 2.554), respectively. Consequently, the proposed ANFIS-GA model has the potential to be used for predicting aims on other fields.

     

基于GF-1 WFV影像和机器学习算法的玉米叶面积指数估算

目的 叶面积指数（LAI）是重要的植被生物理化参数,对农作物长势和产量预测具有重要研究意义。基于物理模型和经验模型的LAI估算方法被认为是当前最常用的方法,但两种方法的估算效率和精度有限。近年来,机器学习算法在遥感监测领域广泛应用,算法具有描述非线性数据拟合、融合更多辅助信息的能力,为了评价机器学习算法在玉米LAI遥感估算中的适用性,本文分析比较了随机森林和BP神经网络算法估算玉米LAI的能力,并与传统经验模型进行了比较。方法 以河北省怀来县东花园镇为研究区,基于野外实测玉米LAI数据,结合同时期国产高分卫星（GF1-WFV影像）,首先分析了8种植被指数与LAI的相关性,进而采用保留交叉验证的方式将所有样本数据分为两部分,65%的数据作为模型训练集,35%作为验证集,重复随机分为3组,构建以8种植被指数为自变量,对应LAI值为因变量的RF模型、BP神经网络模型及传统经验模型。采用决定系数R²和均方根误差（RMSE）作为模型评价指标。结果 8种植被指数与LAI的相关性分析表明所有样本数据中,实测LAI值与各植被指数均在（P<0.01）水平下极显著相关,且相关系数均高于0.5;将3组不同样本数据在随机森林、BP神经网络算法中多次训练,并基于验证数据集进行估算精度检验,经验模型采用训练数据集建模,验证数据集检验,结果表明,RF模型表现出了较强的预测能力,LAI预测值与实测值R²分别为0.681、0.757、0.701,均高于BP模型（0.504、0.589、0.605）和经验模型（0.492、0.557、0.531）,对应RMSE分别为0.264、0.292、0.259;均低于BP模型（0.284、0.410、0.283）和经验模型（0.541、0.398、0.306）。结论 研究表明,RF算法能更好地进行玉米LAI遥感估算,为快速准确进行农作物LAI遥感监测提供了技术参考。     

Genetic programing and non-linear multiple regression techniques to predict backbreak in blasting operation

In addition to all benefits of blasting in mining and civil engineering applications, it has some undesirable environmental impacts. Backbreak is an unwanted phenomenon of blasting which can cause instability of mine walls, decreasing efficiency of drilling, falling down of machinery, etc. Recently, the use of new approaches such as artificial intelligence (AI) is greatly recommended by many researchers. In this paper, a new AI technique namely genetic programing (GP) was developed to predict BB. To prepare a sufficient database, 175 blasting works were investigated in Sungun copper mine, Iran. In these operations, the most influential parameters on BB including burden, spacing, stemming length, powder factor and stiffness ratio were measured and used to develop BB predictive models. To demonstrate capability of GP technique, a non-linear multiple regression (NLMR) model was also employed for prediction of BB. Value account for (VAF), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R ²) were used to control the capacity performance of the predictive models. The performance indices obtained by GP approach indicate the higher reliability of GP compared to NLMR model. RMSE and VAF values of 0.327 and 97.655, respectively, for testing datasets of GP approach reveal the superiority of this model in predicting BB, while these values were obtained as 0.865 and 81.816, respectively, for NLMR model.     

A new soft computing model for estimating and controlling blast-produced ground vibration based on Hierarchical K-means clustering and Cubist algorithms

Blasting is an essential task in open-pit mines for rock fragmentation. However, its dangerous side effects need to be accurately estimated and controlled, especially ground vibration as measured in the form of peak particle velocity (PPV). The accuracy for estimating blast-induced PPV can be improved by hybrid artificial intelligence approach. In this study, a new hybrid model was developed based on Hierarchical K-means clustering (HKM) and Cubist algorithm (CA), code name HKM-CA model. The HKM clustering hybrid technique was used to separate data according to their characteristics. Subsequently, the Cubist model was trained and developed on the clusters generated by HKM. Empirical technique, the benchmark algorithms [random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), classification and regression tree (CART)], and single CA model were also established for benchmarking the HKM-CA model. Root-mean-square error (RMSE), determination coefficient (R²), and mean absolute error (MAE) were the key indicators used for evaluating the model performance. The results revealed that the proposed HKM-CA model was a powerful tool for improving the accuracy of the CA model. Specifically, the HKM-CA model yielded a superior result with an RMSE of 0.475, R² of 0.995, and MAE of 0.373 in comparison to other models. The proposed HKM-CA model has the potential to be used for predicting blast-induced PPV on-site to control undesirable effects on the surrounding environment.     

Neuro-genetic,neuro-imperialism and genetic programing models in predicting ultimate bearing capacity of pile

Prediction of pile-bearing capacity developing artificial intelligence models has been done over the last decade. Such predictive tools can assist geotechnical engineers to easily determine the ultimate pile bearing capacity instead of conducting any difficult field tests. The main aim of this study is to predict the bearing capacity of pile developing several smart models, i.e., neuro-genetic, neuro-imperialism, genetic programing (GP) and artificial neural network (ANN). For this purpose, a number of concrete pile characteristics and its dynamic load test specifications were investigated to select pile cross-sectional area, pile length, pile set, hammer weight and drop height as five input variables which have the most impacts on pile bearing capacity as the single output variable. It should be noted that all the aforementioned parameters were measured by conducting a series of pile driving analyzer tests on precast concrete piles located in Pekanbaru, Indonesia. The recorded data were used to establish a database of 50 test cases. With regard to data modelling, many smart models of neuro-genetic, neuro-imperialism, GP and ANN were developed and then evaluated based on the three most common statistical indices, i.e., root mean squared error (RMSE), coefficient determination (R²) and variance account for (VAF). Based on the simulation results and the computed indices’ values, it is observed that the proposed GP model with training and test RMSE values of 0.041 and 0.040, respectively, performs noticeably better than the proposed neuro-genetic model with RMSE values of 0.042 and 0.040, neuro-imperialism model with RMSE values of 0.045 and 0.059, and ANN model with RMSE values of 0.116 and 0.108 for training and test sets, respectively. Therefore, this GP-based model can provide a new applicable equation to effectively predict the ultimate pile bearing capacity.

     

Symbiotic polyhedron operation tree (SPOT) for elastic modulus formulation of recycled aggregate concrete

As concerns on environmental issues are consistently escalating in the perspective of establishing sustainable and environmental-friendly construction in the construction industry, one prominent approach to address this agenda is the application of recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) to concrete production. However, this particular concrete possesses different physical and mechanical properties from those of normal concrete, raising the difficulty of proper understanding and implementation in real-world practice. Accordingly, these shortcomings have drawn the inspiration in this research to devote efforts in deriving an accurate formulation of RAC elastic modulus which is contemplated as one crucial problem relevant to RAC properties. Furthermore, this research proposed symbiotic polyhedron operation tree (SPOT) which incorporated Symbiotic Organisms Search 2.0 and polyhedron operation tree together to develop the prediction model. From result findings and several analyses conducted, the proposed model has shown superiority among other applied methods in terms of stability and robustness. SPOT provides the best RMSE, MAE, MAPE, R, and R² values in testing data with major difference. Moreover, the final developed model of SPOT which is interpreted as the RAC elastic modulus equation consists of all input variables constructed in the equation. Hence, having the high accuracy and capability to construct relationship between RAC properties, this model conclusively demonstrated an auspicious capability in accomplishing the objectives specified in this research, especially within this research scope of RAC.

     

Forecasting highway casualties under the effect of railway development policy in Turkey using artificial neural networks

This study presents forecast of highway casualties in Turkey using nonlinear multiple regression (NLMR) and artificial neural network (ANN) approaches. Also, the effect of railway development on highway safety using ANN models was evaluated. Two separate NLMR and ANN models for forecasting the number of accidents (A) and injuries (I) were developed using 27 years of historical data (1980–2006). The first 23 years data were used for training, while the remaining data were utilized for testing. The model parameters include gross national product per capita (GNP-C), numbers of vehicles per thousand people (V-TP), and percentage of highways, railways, and airways usages (TSUP-H, TSUP-R, and TSUP-A, respectively). In the ANN models development, the sigmoid and linear activation functions were employed with feed-forward back propagation algorithm. The performances of the developed NLMR and ANN models were evaluated by means of error measurements including mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R ²). ANN models were used for future estimates because NLMR models produced unreasonably decreasing projections. The number of road accidents and as well as injuries was forecasted until 2020 via different possible scenarios based on (1) taking TSUPs at their current trends with no change in the national transport policy at present, and (2) shifting passenger traffic from highway to railway at given percentages but leaving airway traffic with its current trend. The model results indicate that shifting passenger traffic from the highway system to railway system resulted in a significant decrease on highway casualties in Turkey.