The impact of oil prices on bioenergy,emissions and land use

We evaluate how alternative future oil prices will influence the penetration of biofuels, energy production, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, land use and other outcomes. Our analysis employs a global economy wide model and simulates alternative oil prices out to 2050 with and without a price on GHG emissions. In one case considered, based on estimates of available resources, technological progress and energy demand, the reference oil price rises to $124 by 2050. Other cases separately consider constant reference oil prices of $50, $75 and $100, which are targeted by adjusting the quantity of oil resources. In our simulations, higher oil prices lead to more biofuel production, more land being used for bioenergy crops, and fewer GHG emissions. Reducing oil resources to simulate higher oil prices has a strong income effect, so decreased food demand under higher oil prices results in an increase in land allocated to natural forests. We also find that introducing a carbon price reduces the differences in oil use and GHG emissions across oil price cases.     

Monetary value of the environmental and health externalities associated with production of ethanol from biomass feedstocks

This research is aimed at monetizing the life cycle environmental and health externalities associated with production of ethanol from corn, corn stover, switchgrass, and forest residue. The results of this study reveal current average external costs for the production of 1 l of ethanol ranged from $0.07 for forest residue to $0.57 for ethanol production from corn. Among the various feedstocks, the external costs of PM₁₀, NO_X, and PM_2.5 are among the greatest contributors to these costs. The combustion of fossil fuels in upstream fertilizer and energy production processes is the primary source of these emissions and their costs, especially for corn ethanol. The combined costs of emissions associated with the production and use of nitrogen fertilizer also contribute substantially to the net external costs. For cellulosic ethanol production, the combustion of waste lignin to generate heat and power helps to keep the external costs lower than corn ethanol. Credits both for the biogenic carbon combustion and displacement of grid electricity by exporting excess electricity substantially negate many of the emissions and external costs. External costs associated with greenhouse gas emissions were not significant. However, adding estimates of indirect GHG emissions from land use changes would nearly double corn ethanol cost estimates.     

Economics of herbaceous bioenergy crops for electricity generation: Implications for greenhouse gas mitigation

This paper examines the optimal land allocation for two perennial crops, switchgrass and miscanthus that can be co-fired with coal for electricity generation. Detailed spatial data at county level is used to determine the costs of producing and transporting biomass to power plants in Illinois over a 15-year period. A supply curve for bioenergy is generated at various levels of bioenergy subsidies and the implications of production for farm income and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are analyzed. GHG emissions are estimated using lifecycle analysis and include the soil carbon sequestered by perennial grasses and the carbon emissions displaced by these grasses due to both conversion of land from row crops and co-firing the grasses with coal. We find that the conversion of less than 2% of the cropland to bioenergy crops could produce 5.5% of the electricity generated by coal-fired power plants in Illinois and reduce carbon emissions by 11% over the 15-year period. However, the cost of energy from biomass in Illinois is more than twice as high as that of coal. Costly government subsidies for bioenergy or mandates in the form of Renewable Portfolio Standards would be needed to induce the production and use of bioenergy for electricity generation. Alternatively, a modest price for GHG emissions under a cap-and-trade policy could make bioenergy competitive with coal without imposing a fiscal burden on the government.     

The potential for renewable energy in industrial applications

To date, insufficient attention has been paid to the potential of renewable energy resources in industrial applications. Our analysis suggests that up to 21% of final energy demand and feedstock-use in the manufacturing industry sector could be of renewable origin by 2050, a five-fold increase over current levels in absolute terms. This estimate is considerably higher than other recent global scenario studies. In addition, if a 50% share of renewables in power generation is assumed, the share of direct and indirect renewable energy use rises to 31% in 2050. Our analysis further suggests that bioenergy and biofeedstocks can constitute three-quarters of the direct renewables use in this sector by 2050. The remainder is roughly evenly divided between solar heating and heat pumps. The potential for solar cooling is considered to be limited.While low-temperature solar process heat can reach cost-effectiveness today in locations with good insolation, some bioenergy applications will require a CO₂ price even on the longer term. Biomass feedstock for synthetic organic materials will require a CO₂ price up to USD 100/t CO₂, or even more if embodied carbon is not considered properly in CO₂ accounts. Future fossil fuel prices and bioenergy prices in addition to the development of feedstock commodity markets for biomass will be critical. Decision makers are recommended to pay more attention to the potential for renewables in industry. Finally, we propose the development of a detailed technology roadmap to explore this potential further and discuss key issues that need to be elaborated in such a framework.     

Exploring the potential of Eucalyptus for energy production in the Southern United States: Financial analysis of delivered biomass. Part I

Eucalyptus plantations in the Southern United States offer a viable feedstock for renewable bioenergy. Delivered cost of eucalypt biomass to a bioenergy facility was simulated in order to understand how key variables affect biomass delivered cost. Three production rates (16.8, 22.4 and 28.0 Mg ha⁻¹ y⁻¹, dry weight basis) in two investment scenarios were compared in terms of financial analysis, to evaluate the effect of productivity and land investment on the financial indicators of the project. Delivered cost of biomass was simulated to range from $55.1 to $66.1 per delivered Mg (with freight distance of 48.3 km from plantation to biorefinery) depending on site productivity (without considering land investment) at 6% IRR. When land investment was included in the analysis, delivered biomass cost increased to range from $65.0 to $79.4 per delivered Mg depending on site productivity at 6% IRR. Conversion into cellulosic ethanol might be promising with biomass delivered cost lower than $66 Mg⁻¹. These delivered costs and investment analysis show that Eucalyptus plantations are a potential biomass source for bioenergy production for Southern U.S.     

Global bioenergy potentials through 2050

Estimates of world regional potentials of the sustainable use of biomass for energy uses through the year 2050 are presented. The estimated potentials are consistent with scenarios of agricultural production and land use developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria. They thus avoid inconsistent land use, in particular conflicts between the agricultural and bioenergy land use. As an illustration of the circumstances under which a large part of this potential could be used in practice, a global energy scenario with high economic growth and low greenhouse gas emissions, developed by IIASA and the World Energy Council is summarised. In that scenario, bioenergy supplies 15% of global primary energy by 2050. Our estimation method is transparent and reproducible. A computer program to repeat the calculation of the estimates with possibly changed assumptions is available on request.     

Global bioenergy potentials from agricultural land in 2050: Sensitivity to climate change, diets and yields

There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a "food first" approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP) and its human appropriation as well as socioeconomic biomass flow balances for the year 2000 that are modified according to a set of scenario assumptions to derive the biomass potential for 2050. We calculate the amount of biomass required to feed humans and livestock, considering losses between biomass supply and provision of final products. Based on this biomass balance as well as on global land-use data, we evaluate the potential to grow bioenergy crops and estimate the residue potentials from cropland (forestry is outside the scope of this study). We assess the sensitivity of the biomass potential to assumptions on diets, agricultural yields, cropland expansion and climate change. We use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL to evaluate possible impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and elevated CO(2) on agricultural yields. We find that the gross (primary) bioenergy potential ranges from 64 to 161?EJ?y(-1), depending on climate impact, yields and diet, while the dependency on cropland expansion is weak. We conclude that food requirements for a growing world population, in particular feed required for livestock, strongly influence bioenergy potentials, and that integrated approaches are needed to optimize food and bioenergy supply.     

Cost-effective CO2 emission reduction through heat,power and biofuel production from woody biomass: A spatially explicit comparison of conversion technologies

Bioenergy is regarded as cost-effective option to reduce CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Among newly developed biomass conversion technologies are biomass integrated gas combined cycle plants (BIGCC) as well as ethanol and methanol production based on woody biomass feedstock. Furthermore, bioenergy systems with carbon capture and storage (BECS) may allow negative CO₂ emissions in the future. It is still not clear which woody biomass conversion technology reduces fossil CO₂ emissions at least costs. This article presents a spatial explicit optimization model that assesses new biomass conversion technologies for fuel, heat and power production and compares them with woody pellets for heat production in Austria. The spatial distributions of biomass supply and energy demand have significant impact on the total supply costs of alternative bioenergy systems and are therefore included in the modeling process. Many model parameters that describe new bioenergy technologies are uncertain, because some of the technologies are not commercially developed yet. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to analyze model parameter uncertainty. Model results show that heat production with pellets is to be preferred over BIGCC at low carbon prices while BECS is cost-effective to reduce CO₂ emissions at higher carbon prices. Fuel production – methanol as well as ethanol – reduces less CO₂ emissions and is therefore less cost-effective in reducing CO₂ emissions.     

On sustainability of bioenergy production: Integrating co-emissions from agricultural intensification

Biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops is seen as a substantial part of future energy systems, especially if climate policy aims at stabilizing CO₂ concentration at low levels. However, among other concerns of sustainability, the large-scale use of bioenergy is controversial because it is hypothesized to increase the competition for land and therefore raise N₂O emissions from agricultural soils due to intensification. We apply a global land-use model that is suited to assess agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emissions. First, we describe how fertilization of cellulosic bioenergy crops and associated N₂O emissions are implemented in the land-use model and how future bioenergy demand is derived by an energy-economy-climate model. We then assess regional N₂O emissions from the soil due to large-scale bioenergy application, the expansion of cropland and the importance of technological change for dedicated bioenergy crops. Finally, we compare simulated N₂O emissions from the agricultural sector with CO₂ emissions from the energy sector to investigate the real contribution of bioenergy for low stabilization scenarios.As a result, we find that N₂O emissions due to energy crop production are a minor factor. Nevertheless, these co-emissions can be significant for the option of removing CO₂ from the atmosphere (by combining bioenergy use with carbon capture and storage (CCS) options) possibly needed at the end of the century for climate mitigation. Furthermore, our assessment shows that bioenergy crops will occupy large shares of available cropland and will require high rates of technological change at additional costs.     

Carbon dioxide emissions from switchgrass and cottonwood grown as bioenergy crops in the Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley

Marginal land of the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (LMAV) has the potential to be utilized for substantial production of bioenergy feedstocks. However, resulting ecosystem services associated with dedicated bioenergy crop production, such as soil respiration and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, which play an important role in global carbon (C) cycling, are not well understood. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of land use [i.e., switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) and eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides) grown as dedicated bioenergy crops and a soybean (Glycine max)-grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) agroecosystem rotation] on monthly respiration and estimated annual CO₂ emissions for 2012 and 2013 from a silt -loam soil in east-central Arkansas. Peak monthly fluxes achieved each year differed (p < 0.05) somewhat among ecosystems. Annual CO₂ emissions differed among ecosystems (p < 0.001), but not between years (p = 0.45). Cottonwood emitted less CO₂ in both years (7.3 and 7.4 Mg ha⁻¹ for 2012 and 2013, respectively) compared to the other two ecosystems, while emissions from the switchgrass did not differ from those from the soybean in 2012 (10.3 and 9.5 Mg ha⁻¹, respectively) or grain sorghum in 2013 (9.7 and 9.2 Mg ha⁻¹, respectively). Results showed established bioenergy feedstock cropping systems do not have greater soil CO₂ emissions compared with a traditional soybean-grain sorghum crop rotation. Results also indicated that different bioenergy feedstocks can produce different quantities of CO₂ emissions, which may be important to consider when converting marginal lands to bioenergy feedstock cropping systems.     

The long-term life cycle private and external costs of high coal usage in the US

Using four times as much coal in 2050 for electricity production need not degrade air quality or increase greenhouse gas emissions. Current SO_x and NO_x emissions from the power sector could be reduced from 12 to less than 1 and from 5 to 2 million tons annually, respectively, using advanced technology. While direct CO₂ emissions from new power plants could be reduced by over 87%, life cycle emissions could increase by over 25% due to the additional coal that is required to be mined and transported to compensate for the energy penalty of the carbon capture and storage technology. Strict environmental controls push capital costs of pulverized coal (PC) and integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants to $1500–1700/kW and $1600–2000/kW, respectively. Adding carbon capture and storage (CCS) increases costs to $2400–2700/kW and $2100–3000/kW (2005 dollars), respectively. Adding CCS reduces the 40–43% efficiency of the ultra-supercritical PC plant to 31–34%; adding CCS reduces the 32–38% efficiency of the GE IGCC plant to 27–33%. For IGCC, PC, and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants, the carbon dioxide tax would have to be $53, $74, and $61, respectively, to make electricity from a plant with CCS cheaper. Capturing and storing 90% of the CO₂ emissions increases life cycle costs from 5.4 to 11.6 cents/kWh. This analysis shows that 90% CCS removal efficiency, although being a large improvement over current electricity generation emissions, results in life cycle emissions that are large enough that additional effort is required to achieve significant economy-wide reductions in the US for this large increase in electricity generation using either coal or natural gas.     

What is the global potential for renewable energy?

World energy demand is projected to rise to 1000 EJ (EJ = 10¹⁸ J) or more by 2050 if economic growth continues its course of recent decades. Both reserve depletion and greenhouse gas emissions will necessitate a major shift from fossil fuels as the dominant energy source. Since nuclear power is now unlikely to increase its present modest share, renewable energy (RE) will have to provide for most energy in the future. This paper addresses the questions of what energy levels RE can eventually provide, and in what time frame. We find that when the energy costs of energy are considered, it is unlikely that RE can provide anywhere near a 1000 EJ by 2050. We further show that the overall technical potential for RE will fall if climate change continues. We conclude that the global shift to RE will have to be accompanied by large reductions in overall energy use for environmental sustainability.     

Biomass-Balance Table for evaluating bioenergy resources

Bioenergy is expected to become one of the key energy resources to cope with global warming and exhaustion of fossil fuel resources. Biomass is renewable and free from net CO₂ emissions as long as it is maintained sustainably. There are several studies concerning bioenergy potential, but they are hardly comparable because of the complexity of the assumed parameters, which relate to food, timber and paper supply, forest management, etc. In this study, bioenergy (expressed in Joules) is divided into plantation bioenergy produced on land and bioenergy recovered from biomass residues in the processes of harvest, conversion and consumption for food, timber and paper. We propose a “Biomass Balance Table”, which shows systematically the flows of various biomass forms. The scheme of a Biomass-Balance Table is similar to that of an energy-balance table. The steps of the biomass processing (i.e. harvesting, conversion and consumption) are expressed in the column, and biomass forms are expressed in the row. Tables have been constructed for 10 regions in the world in 1990. The world has an existing energy potential from biomass residues of 88 EJ (i.e. 26% of 335 EJ of primary energy supply in 1990) and Japan has 2.02 EJ (10% of 19.52 EJ of primary energy supply in 1990). North America, the former USSR and eastern Europe, and Western Europe have large potentials of wood biomass residues and other Asian countries and the centrally-planned economies of Asia have large potentials food biomass residues.     

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO₂ emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO₂ price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO₂ price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO₂ price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO₂ storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role.     

The GHG balance of biofuels taking into account land use change

The contribution of biofuels to the saving of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has recently been questioned because of emissions resulting from land use change (LUC) for bioenergy feedstock production. We investigate how the inclusion of the carbon effect of LUC into the carbon accounting framework, as scheduled by the European Commission, impacts on land use choices for an expanding biofuel feedstock production. We first illustrate the change in the carbon balances of various biofuels, using methodology and data from the IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. It becomes apparent that the conversion of natural land, apart from grassy savannahs, impedes meeting the EU's 35% minimum emissions reduction target for biofuels. We show that the current accounting method mainly promotes biofuel feedstock production on former cropland, thus increasing the competition between food and fuel production on the currently available cropland area. We further discuss whether it is profitable to use degraded land for commercial bioenergy production as requested by the European Commission to avoid undesirable LUC and conclude that the current regulation provides little incentive to use such land. The exclusive consideration of LUC for bioenergy production minimizes direct LUC at the expense of increasing indirect LUC.     

Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model®

This study analyzes the potential impacts of changes in temperature due to climate change on the U.S. power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes due to temperature changes under two emissions trajectories—with and without emissions mitigation. It estimates the impact of temperature change on heating and cooling degree days, electricity demand, and generating unit output and efficiency. These effects are then integrated into a dispatch and capacity planning model to estimate impacts on investment decisions, emissions, system costs, and power prices for 32 U.S. regions. Without mitigation actions, total annual electricity production costs in 2050 are projected to increase 14% ($51 billion) because of greater cooling demand as compared to a control scenario without future temperature changes. For a scenario with global emissions mitigation, including a reduction in U.S. power sector emissions of 36% below 2005 levels in 2050, the increase in total annual electricity production costs is approximately the same as the increase in system costs to satisfy the increased demand associated with unmitigated rising temperatures.     

Economic accounting and high-tech strategy for sustainable production: A case study of methanol production from CO2 hydrogenation

The global proposal of ‘carbon neutrality’ puts forward higher innovation demand for the cleaner energy production. The potential for employing “green” methanol produced from hydrogen obtained by water electrolysis and collected CO₂ from a gas-fired power station is examined in this study.The consumption of electricity for renewable methanol production is 1.045 times as much as that for traditional methanol production, the traditional method consumes 2.5 times as much thermal energy as the renewable methanol process. In addition, the total direct and indirect CO₂ emissions from renewable methanol production are almost one-third of the emissions from the traditional method. The total cost of setting up the units of a renewable and a traditional methanol production plant with an annual capacity of 100,000 tons is $50.1 million and $46.806 million in this study case, respectively. If the methanol price hits $310 per ton, renewable methanol production will be highly economically viable. But if electricity and gas prices rise or CO2 emission tax is imposed, renewable and conventional methanol production plants will lose their economic feasibility. Therefore, in order to deal with this risk, the establishment of special high-tech parks is of great significance to reduce costs and stabilize the sustainable development of relevant industries.     

Renewable and low carbon hydrogen for California – Modeling the long term evolution of fuel infrastructure using a quasi-spatial TIMES model

This paper describes the development and use of a hydrogen infrastructure optimization model using the TIMES modeling framework, H2TIMES, to analyze hydrogen development in California to 2050. H2TIMES is a quasi-spatial model that develops the infrastructure to supply hydrogen fuel in order to meet demand in eight separate California regions in a least cost manner subject to various resource, technology and policy constraints. A Base case, with a suite of hydrogen policies now in effect or proposed in California (renewable hydrogen mandate, fuel carbon intensity constraint and prohibition on using coal without carbon capture and sequestration) leads to hydrogen fuel with significant reductions in carbon intensity (85% below gasoline on an efficiency-adjusted basis, 75% below on a raw energy basis) and competitive hydrogen costs (∼$4.00/kg in 2025–2050). A number of sensitivity scenarios investigate the cost and emissions implications of altering policy constraints, technology and resource availability, and modeling decisions. The availability of biomass for hydrogen production and carbon capture and sequestration are two critical factors for achieving low-cost and low-emission hydrogen.     

Ethanol production under endogenous crop prices: Theoretical analysis and application to barley

We examine the social desirability of ethanol production from agricultural crops when the greenhouse gas balance, land competition and crop price determination are taken into account. We focus on the whole production chain and examine how the life cycle CO₂-equivalent (CO₂-eq) emissions and the endogenous crop prices impact social benefits from ethanol production. Ethanol production is desirable under current ethanol price only if the side products, grain residue for animal feed and the straw for energy, are produced. If either these cannot be produced or emissions from soil are high, social returns to ethanol production either vanish or become small.     

Biomass and CCS: The influence of technical change

The combination of bioenergy production and carbon capture and storage technologies (BECCS) provides an opportunity to create negative emissions of CO₂ in biofuel production. However, high capture costs reduce profitability. This paper investigates carbon price uncertainty and technological uncertainty through a real option approach. We compare the cases of early and delayed CCS deployments. An early technological progress may arise from aggressive R&D and pilot project programs, but the expected cost reduction remains uncertain. We show that this approach results in lower emissions and more rapid investment returns although these returns will not fully materialise until after 2030. In a second set of simulations, we apply an incentive that prioritises sequestered emissions rather than avoided emissions. In other words, this economic instrument does not account for CO₂ emissions from the CCS implementation itself, but rewards all the sequestered emissions. In contrast with technological innovations, this subsidy is certain for the investor. The resulting investment level is higher, and the project may become profitable before 2030. Negative emission in bioethanol production does not seem to be a short-term solution in our framework, whatever the carbon price drift.