Postponement in supply chain risk management: a complexity perspective

While the poor response implications of supply are often not elaborated on in the literature, postponement has recently been mentioned as a useful tool for managing supply risk and disruptions. To interpret this in a more complete manner, this paper has attempted to explore the role of postponement in supply chain risk management from a complexity perspective. After a review of the relevant literature, it first draws insights emerging from normal accident theory that addresses the system characteristics of catastrophic accidents and applies them to supply chain disruptions. This is followed by the utilisation of normal accident theory to explain the role of postponement in supply chain risk management. Building on this, this paper also investigates the complexity implications of some commonly recommended measures to mitigate supply chain disruptions. In certain circumstances, the introduction of those measures may add to the complexity of a system and thus become inherently infeasible. The paper concludes with a summary and some suggestions for further research.     

Real options approach to evaluate postponement as supply chain disruptions mitigation strategy

The purpose of this paper is to assess the value of postponement as strategy for mitigating supply chain disruptions. To accomplish this objective, we develop a real option computational model that quantifies the value of postponement in mitigating both supply and demand disruptions by taking into account the value of managerial flexibility to decide whether exploiting or not the strategy, if and when disruptions occur, and whenever product differentiation proves valuable based on information available at that time. Numerical experiments show the importance of incorporating an option valuation method when pricing the value of postponement. This ensures managers implement postponement only when it is valuable, thus avoiding burdening the company with its initial sunk costs. By modelling the postponement implementation under different conditions, we identify the situations in which postponement performs better as supply chain disruptions mitigation strategy. We derive the operational configurations, in terms of decoupling point position, and external conditions, in terms of riskiness of the environment, which make the postponement an effective mitigation strategy.     

客户化供应链中的延迟策略

简单介绍了客户化供应链的概念,描述了延迟策略的内涵。在与客户化供应链整个业务流程结合的基础上,提出了延迟策略可以分为供应延迟、制造延迟、交付延迟和服务延迟,并分别研究了它们的实施目标、实现方式以及运作过程。这四种延迟策略不仅能降低供应链成本．实现产品和服务多样化,而且能够提高供应链的敏捷性,快速响应客户个性化需求。     

Postponement: an inter-organizational perspective

In view of the slow rate of postponement applications, this paper attempts to examine postponement strategies from an inter-organizational perspective. The paper first reviews the literature on different postponement strategies (including logistics postponement, production postponement, purchasing postponement, and product-development postponement) mainly within the context of the supply chain or supply network. Then, two research questions are formulated. This is followed by the investigation into the inter-organizational structure and capacity planning in postponement applications. The paper concludes with some suggestions for further research.     

基于缩短供应链响应周期的运作模式研究

通过分析总结推动式和拉动式供应链的特点及对用户需求响应时间的变化，阐明基于延迟策略的推-拉结合式供应链的综合优势，提出利用延迟和压缩提前期的方法缩短供应链的响应周期；论述了对于不同生产类型企业为缩短响应时间可以采取不同的供应链运作模式；构建了基于延迟策略的模块化供应链模型，描述了该模型的运作流程以及实施中应注意的问题。     

供应链虚拟库存决策的仿真

在供应链延迟策略和供应商管理库存（VMI）策略研究的基础上,建立了供应链延迟策略下的仿真模型,再引入虚拟库存,通过计算机仿真,探讨了虚拟库存实施前后供应链绩效的变化情况。研究结果表明,与一般的供应商管理库存相比,虚拟库存的引入使得供应链总成本和企业的服务水平均有所增加。     

延迟制造技术在制造业中的应用研究

在分析延迟制造技术的理论基础上，提出基于延迟制造技术的供应链结构模型，并结合延迟制造技术理论与某企业具体条件和特点，探讨延迟制造技术在该制造业中实施的方法和效果。     

基于熵权TOPSIS的客户订单分离点定位研究

客户订单分离点(CODP)定位是延迟策略实施过程的中心问题,它直接决定了供应链的精益程度.以CODP定位问题为切入点,分析了CODP上、下游的基本特征,按照功能、成本和提前期,构建了CODP定位决策模型,提出了基于熵权TOPSIS的决策模型的评价方法.最后,以某拉链公司的工艺生产流程为例,验证了该决策模型和模型评价方法的可行性.     

Operationalising form postponement from a decision-making perspective

Form postponement means delaying the commitment of inventory to the final configuration of a product as long as possible. Many firms today are striving to redesign their products and/or their manufacturing and supply chain processes to implement form postponement. Opportunities for form postponement, however, are sometimes lost in the companies’ production-planning processes. By focusing on the deferring of product mix decisions in the master production scheduling process, this paper shows that form postponement opportunities can be divided into two components: one whose pursuit necessarily requires product and/or transformation process redesign, the other that can be pursued by changing the sales forecasting and master production scheduling process alone. We develop an operational procedure to identify and quantify, for a given product family, all opportunities for form postponement and their two respective components. Then, we discuss and empirically illustrate how the proposed measurement procedure may support companies in changing their decision-making routines to implement form postponement. Finally, we set future research directions on form postponement suggested by our results.     

基于制造延迟的VMI模型的仿真研究

在供应链延迟策略和供应商管理库存(VMI)策略研究的基础上,首先建立了供应链延迟策略下的仿真模型,然后再引入供应商管理库存策略,通过计算机仿真,探讨了供应商管理库存策略实施前后供应链绩效的变化情况.研究结果表明,与单纯的延迟策略相比,延迟与供应商库存相结合的策略能明显改善供应链的绩效.     

Model for integrating the supply chain of an appliance company: a value of information approach

A supply chain management model is presented in the context of a major household appliance manufacturer in Mexico. Specifically, it provides a capacitated, multistage, multiperiod, multicommodity, multifacility inventory planning model. The mixed-integer programming model deals with the efficient allocation of resources in the supply chain network under the premise that information is a valuable resource that also requires optimal allocation in order to enhance the flow of products and to minimize system-wide costs. The model employs the strategy of risk pooling or time postponement as a cost-reduction driver to account for the provision of safety stocks in the system. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of the application of the real-world, large-scale supply chain models.     

Agile supply chain strategy and supply chain performance: complementary roles of supply chain practices and information systems capability for agility

The paper examines the mediating effect of supply chain (SC) practices on the relationship between agile supply chain (ASC) strategy and SC performance. It further examines the moderating effect of information systems (IS) capability for agility on this mediated relationship. Using the theoretical lenses of complementarity and the information processing view of the supply chain, we hypothesise that strategic supplier partnership, customer relationship, postponement and lean practices, mediate the relationship between ASC strategy and SC performance. We further hypothesise that IS capability for agility moderates each of these mediated relationships. We empirically test the hypotheses using survey data from members of senior and executive management in the logistics/supply chain functions of 205 firms. The paper contributes to the literature on ASCs by theoretically explaining and empirically demonstrating how SC practices and IS capability for agility act together to effect a positive relationship between ASC strategy and supply chain performance.     

A structural approach to assessing postponement strategies: construct development and validation

This paper endeavours to introduce and validate constructs and measured variables for postponement strategies. Although empirical researchers have examined postponement, a consistent set of valid, reliable factors has not been developed and used. The lack of valid constructs is a barrier to hypothesis testing and meta-analysis on postponement. Using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), the validity and reliability of the proposed postponement constructs are examined. This is performed through a pilot study and a large scale survey on a sample of 219 manufacturing firms which represent a wide range of manufacturing operations. The outcomes of this paper establish a set of variables which can measure shipment, manufacturing, purchasing and design postponements.     

Simulation-based ripple effect modelling in the supply chain

In light of low-frequency/high-impact disruptions, the ripple effect has recently been introduced into academic literature on supply chain management. The ripple effect in the supply chain results from disruption propagation from the initial disruption point to the supply, production and distribution networks. While optimisation modelling dominates this research field, the potential of simulation modelling still remains under-explored. The objective of this study is to reveal research gaps that can be closed with the help of simulation modelling. First, recent literature on both optimisation and simulation modelling is analysed. Second, a simulation model for multi-stage supply chain design with consideration of capacity disruptions and experimental results is presented in order to depict major areas of simulation application to the ripple effect modelling. Based on both literature analysis and the modelling example, managerial insights and future research areas are identified in regard to simulation modelling application to the ripple effect analysis in the supply chain. The paper concludes by summarising the most important insights and outlining a future research agenda.     

Multiple decoupling point paradigms in a global supply chain syndrome: a relational analysis

A responsive and flexible supply chain in the global product value chain set-up links the manufacturer with various inter-company entities, such as suppliers, distributors, contract manufacturers and customers to deal with volatile demand. It is imperative and prudent to look at the overall product chain rather than focusing on any single supply chain entity. From a supply chain perspective, it is crucial that these individual entities are lean and agile (leagile) themselves, as well as the overall product value chain. As a result of the global nature of the product value chain, the concept of the decoupling point has undergone a paradigm shift. Through the literature review the authors establish three different types of decoupling point existing in product value chains, namely: (1) product structure decoupling point (PSDP), bill of materials decoupling; (2) supply structure decoupling point (SSDP), supply network decoupling; and (3) demand transfer decoupling point (DTDP), associated with information sharing. It is argued that such decoupling points are already an established and accepted phenomena, but have not been comprehensively discussed until now. It is proposed that, in the global supply chain, PSDP and SSDP are elemental decoupling points and DTDP is a logical decoupling, which is a function of PSDP and SSDP. It is proposed that DTDP swings between PSDP and SSDP and the swing direction is a critical piece of supply chain information that helps identify distortion. A multidimensional scaling (MDS) method is proposed to discover the relationship of DTDP with SSDP and PSDP using interpretation matrices and stress coefficients. Considering the supply chain as a fuzzy system, a combined effect of MDS over fuzzy applications has been used to determine the extent of swing of DTDP in the particular application of the supply chain.     

柔性供应链的优化及供应商响应时间分析

针对Ricardo提出的柔性供应链结构,赋予其新的涵义：在顾客订单分离点之前,采用模块化技术,以获得规模经济效益;在订单分离点之后,采用延迟生产,以获得范围经济效益。同时以柔性供应链各节点的成本和客户服务水平为优化参数,建立多目标函数优化模型,并借助于MATLAB的GAOT,利用遗传算法求解。最后在优化结果的基础上,研究了柔性供应链的供应商响应时间(Supplier Response Time,SRT),描述了目标SRT与安全库存、客户服务水平的关系及相互影响。     

A framework for designing robust supply chains considering product development issues

The primary objective of the design for supply chain (DFSC) is the selection of an appropriate product family. Moreover, it deals with the selection of the optimal combination among the different conflicting criteria while making a trade-off between the supply chain cost, sales profit and the product design complexities. In this research, to address the DFSC issues a product platform approach has been proposed which amalgamates the component modularity as well as the function modularity in the product design. The optimisation model proposed in this paper for the product development and the supply chain design is based on a generic bill of materials (GBOM) representation. The complete framework includes vital decision-making needed for designing a robust supply chain such as locating plants to alleviate the likely dominance of production cost and market mediation cost on product variety and imparting process flexibility of the located plants. The optimisation model proposed in this paper, models the supply chain cost, sales profit and product design complexity as three criteria that altogether determine the robustness of the supply chain and the underlying product development approach. Certain parameters like process flexibility, flow types and drivers of the product variety dominance have been controlled in the design framework. To resolve the complexity of the proposed model a genetic algorithm (GA) technique has been proposed. The proposed GA adopts an arithmetic crossover, a dynamic mutation and a variable penalty strategy to produce optimal results in a very short computational time. To validate the proposed model, a simulated case study of the wiring harness supplier of an AGV manufacturer has been studied.     

Management of uncertainty through postponement

It has long been recognized that one of the most important tasks for any organization to cope with is uncertainties. However, uncertainty in the business environment has still been the main cause of failure in industry. The paper investigates the role of postponement in the management of uncertainty. The concept of postponement is developed to include product development postponement, purchasing postponement, production postponement and logistics postponement. These postponement strategies are all presented to cope with different levels of uncertainty. Finally, conclusions are drawn and some remarks about further research are made.     

Implications of form postponement to manufacturing: a case study

Postponement is an approach that helps to deliver more responsive supply chains. Form postponement involves the delay of final manufacturing until a customer order is received and is commonly regarded as an approach to mass customization. However, while much is written in the literature about the benefits and strategic impact of form postponement, little is still known about its application. This paper addresses how form postponement was applied in terms of its operational implications within a manufacturing facility through a retrospective study that tracked implementation of form postponement in a manufacturer of specialist high-voltage cabling equipment, called here ‘ElectriCo’. The operational measures for products selected for form postponement were compared with those for products that continued to be made under make-to-order and make-to-stock regimes. Propositions were tested that addressed the operational implications of form postponement within the manufacturing facility, the impact of form postponement on selected performance metrics, and the demand profile for which form postponement was the preferred regime. Multiple data collection methods were used whereby documentary, archival and database evidence were used to measure operational characteristics across a broad front. The findings show that form postponement improved responsiveness but did not necessarily improve delivery reliability. The extent to which the order lead time can be reduced is dependent not only on the responsiveness of the postponed process, but also crucially on the responsiveness of the planning system. It was found that the problem of adapting the manufacturing planning and production scheduling systems at ElectriCo had been underestimated. This and other problems subsequently undermined the form postponement application and led to its eventual abandonment. The authors are undertaking further research of form postponement applications in different production contexts to provide further evidence for its operational implications.     

Lean,agile or leagile? Matching your supply chain to the marketplace

Many enterprises have pursued the lean thinking paradigm to improve the efficiency of their business processes. More recently, the agile manufacturing paradigm has been highlighted as an alternative to, and possibly an improvement on, leanness. In pursuing such arguments in isolation, the power of each paradigm may be lost, which is basically that agile manufacturing is adopted where demand is volatile, and lean manufacturing adopted where there is a stable demand. However, in some situations it is advisable to utilize a different paradigm on either side of the material flow de-coupling point to enable a total supply chain strategy. This approach we have termed the Leagile Paradigm. This paper therefore considers the effect of the marketplace environment on strategy selection to ensure optimal supply chain performance. Real-world case studies in the mechanical precision products, carpet making, and electronic products market sectors demonstrate the new approach to matching supply chain design to the actual needs of the marketplace.