An integrated approach to inventory and flexible capacity management subject to fixed costs and non-stationary stochastic demand

In a manufacturing system with flexible capacity, inventory management can be coupled with capacity management in order to handle fluctuations in demand more effectively. Typical examples include the effective use of temporary workforce and overtime production. In this paper, we discuss an integrated model for inventory and flexible capacity management under non-stationary stochastic demand with the possibility of positive fixed costs, both for initiating production and for using contingent capacity. We analyze the characteristics of the optimal policies for the integrated problem. We also evaluate the value of utilizing flexible capacity under different settings, which enable us to develop managerial insights.     

A periodic review inventory model with loss-averse retailer,random supply capacity and demand

This paper studies a periodic review inventory model with random supply capacity and demand, where the retailer is loss-averse. For the single-period problem, it is shown that the retailer will not order unless the initial inventory level is less than a critical value, and the order-up-to level is generally not a constant. Moreover, the critical value and optimal order quantity are only dependent on the random demand and independent on the random capacity. We also investigate the impacts of loss aversion, price and cost on the optimal order quantity and maximum expected utility. Then a dynamic programming approach is used to analyse the retailer’s ordering policy in the multi-period case. In each period, if the initial inventory level is above a given value, an order will not be placed. Otherwise, the upper bound on the optimal order quantity is given. The numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the optimal ordering policies.     

Tactical capacity management under capacity flexibility

In many production systems a certain level of flexibility in the production capacity is either inherent or can be acquired. In that case, system costs may be decreased by managing the capacity and inventory in a joint fashion. In this paper we consider such a make-to-stock production environment with flexible capacity subject to periodic review under non-stationary stochastic demand, where we allow for positive fixed costs both for initiating production and for acquiring external capacity. Our focus is on tactical-level capacity management which refers to the determination of in-house production capacity while the operational-level integrated capacity and inventory management is executed in an optimal manner. We first develop a simple model to represent this relatively complicated problem. Then we elaborate on the characteristics of the general problem and provide the solution to some special cases. Finally, we develop several useful managerial insights as to the optimal capacity level, the effect of operating at a suboptimal capacity level and the value of utilizing flexible capacity.     

Dynamic planned safety stocks in supply networks

Safety stocks are commonly used in inventory management for tactically planning against uncertainty in demand and/or supply. The usual approach is to plan a single safety stock value for the entire planning horizon. More advanced methods allow for dynamically updating this value. We introduce a new line of research in inventory management: the notion of planning time-phased safety stocks. We assert that planning a time-phased set of safety stocks over a planning horizon makes sense because larger safety stocks are appropriate in times of greater uncertainty while lower safety stocks are more appropriate when demand and/or supply are more predictable. Projecting a vector of safety stock values is necessary to assure upstream members in the supply network have advanced warning of changes. We perform an empirical study of U.S. industry, which demonstrates that significant savings can be achieved by employing dynamic planned safety stocks, confirming recent case study reports. We provide a simple optimisation model for the problem of minimising inventory given a vector of safety stock targets. We propose a computationally efficient solution procedure and demonstrate its implementation in an MRP/ERP system. We then illustrate an MRP/ERP planning system feature, which employs a dynamic planned safety stock module that supports a production planner by showing the inventory implications of safety stock plans.     

A CAPACITY PLANNING MODEL FOR A MULTI-PRODUCT FACILITY

A deterministic capacity planning model for a multi-product facility is analyzed to determine (he sizes to be expanded (or disposed of) in each period so as to supply the known demand for N products on time and to minimize the total cost incurred over a finite planning horizon of T periods. The model assumes that each capacity unit of the facility simultaneously serves a prespecified number of demand units of each product, that costs considered include capacity expansion costs, capacity disposal costs, and excess (idle) capacity holding costs, and all the associated cost functions are nondecreasing and concave, and that backlogging is not allowed. The structure of an optimal solution is characterized and then used in developing an efficient dynamic programming algorithm that finds optimal capacity planning policies. The required computational effort is a polynomial function of N and T.     

供应中断情况下动态混合应急策略研究

动态刻画市场需求中断反应行为:自动留存订单、等待制造商应急采购延迟完成订单、由安全库存完成订单、取消订单。综合考虑应急采购的提前期及成本、安全库存储备量、企业恢复能力,构建以中断负面影响最小化为目标的最优控制模型。应用最大值原理,提出三种最优的制造商动态响应策略,包含一种纯库存与两种混合策略,决策如何基于库存量、中断持续时长等相关因素实时消耗库存,同时进行应急采购。     

A dynamic system model for proactive control of dynamic events in full-load states of manufacturing chains

Risk management is a major concern in supply chains that have high levels of uncertainty in product demand, manufacturing process or part supply. The uncertainties frequently manifest as dynamic events that pose a threat to interrupting supply chain operation. Depending on the nature and severity of uncertainty, the impact of dynamic events can be distinguished into three categories: deviation, disruption, and disaster. Many studies in literature addressed modelling of deviation events. In this paper, a dynamic system model of supply chains is described which can be applied to managing disruptive events in full-load states of manufacturing chains. An example of disruptive events is given which arises from demand shocks in distribution channel. The procedure to construct full-load production functions of complex manufacturing nodes with internal queuing delay is described. Analytic optimal solution is derived for the dynamic model. Given an unordinary event of demand shock, this model can be used to determine if demand shock can be absorbed by a manufacturing chain and the level of contingent resources that must be synchronously activated in multiple nodes of the chain. This model can be used to reduce what could have been a disruptive event into a deviation event, thus enhancing risk management.     

Replenishment planning in discrete-time, capacitated, non-stationary, stochastic inventory systems

In this paper, we examine a single-product, discrete-time, non-stationary, inventory replenishment problem with both supply and demand uncertainty, capacity limits on replenishment quantities, and service level requirements. A scenario-based stochastic program for the static, finite-horizon problem is presented to determine replenishment orders over the horizon. We propose a heuristic that is based on the first two moments of the random variables and a normal approximation, whose solution is compared with the optimal from a simulation-based optimization method. Computational experiments show that the heuristic performs very well (within 0.25% of optimal, on average) even when the uncertainty is non-normal or when there are periods without any supply. We also present insights obtained from sensitivity analyses on the effects of supply parameters, shortage penalty costs, capacity limits, and demand variance. A rolling-horizon implementation is illustrated.     

Developing a temporary workforce transaction mechanism from risk sharing perspectives

In a low-profit environment, numerous firms no longer use traditional hiring practices and are forced to use a temporary workforce; these practices result in a more flexible workforce. Although outsourcing provides several benefits, it has a high level of risk. Therefore, implementing an enterprise risk management programme is crucial for using temporary labour. This study investigated the condition under which the multiperiod contract of a temporary work agency prohibits labour shortages. This investigation was performed to improve the effectiveness of dispatch contract designs. This study incorporated the concepts of labour demand forecasting and risk sharing and proposes two types of quantity flexibility contracts, period quantity adjustment and total quantity adjustment, to develop an optimal manpower dispatch contract model. An optimal manpower dispatch contract model must coordinate the interests of a temporary work agency and user firms to increase profits for both firms and must be flexible enough to allow for numerous order adjustments. To achieve this objective, this study used sensitivity analysis and an experimental design methodology to analyse the benefits of period quantity adjustment and total quantity adjustment and, accordingly, determine the factors that influence the total expected profit.     

Managing two-stage serial inventory systems under demand and supply uncertainty and customer service level requirements

We consider a two-echelon serial inventory system with demand and supply uncertainty, non-zero lead times for component procurement and end-product assembly, and a minimum customer service level requirement. We present two supply models which incorporate both quantity and timing uncertainty; these models correspond to current and proposed supply environments. Assuming that installation base-stock ordering policies are followed and that the demand distribution is quasi-concave, we show that the chance-constrained problem of determining optimal base-stock levels which minimize the total inventory investment (cost-weighted stock levels) subject to a service constraint is a convex programming problem. We characterize the relation between the optimal base-stock levels of the component and the end-product. We also illustrate how an optimal internal (component) service level can be computed, which permits decomposition of the two-stage serial system into two coordinated single-echelon systems. Computational experiments illustrate insights on the effects of supply uncertainty and other problem parameters on stock-positioning in a two-echelon serial system. In particular, we evaluate the benefits of switching from one supply environment to another.     

Roles of inventory and reserve capacity in mitigating supply chain disruption risk

This research focuses on managing disruption risk in supply chains using inventory and reserve capacity under stochastic demand. While inventory can be considered as a speculative risk mitigation lever, reserve capacity can be used in a reactive fashion when a disruption occurs. We determine optimal inventory levels and reserve capacity production rates for a firm that is exposed to supply chain disruption risk. We fully characterise four main risk mitigation strategies: inventory strategy, reserve capacity strategy, mixed strategy and passive acceptance. We illustrate how the optimal risk mitigation strategy depends on product characteristics (functional versus innovative) and supply chain characteristics (agile versus efficient). This work is inspired from a risk management problem of a leading pharmaceutical company.     

Integrated inventory valuation in multi-echelon production/distribution systems

The pressure to reduce inventory has increased as competition expands, product variety grows, and capital costs increase. This investigation addresses the problem of inventory quantification and distribution within multi-echelon supply chains under market uncertainty and management flexibility. This approach is based on an optimisation model emphasising demand uncertainty and the relevant dimensions of network design as number of echelons, lead time, service level, and cost of processing activities. Overstock quantification enables the understanding of inventory level sensitivity to market uncertainty. A comparison among production sites and storage facilities revealed that higher downstream overstock levels decrease upstream echelons of uncertainty exposition. The contribution of this study relies on management's ability to establish inventory targets for each stocking point according to risk exposure and to promote the optimisation of working capital. Overall, this investigation increases knowledge related to the treatment of demand uncertainty in flexible and integrated supply chains     

Capacitated dynamic lot sizing with capacity acquisition

One of the fundamental problems in operations management is determining the optimal investment in capacity. Capacity investment consumes resources and the decision, once made, is often irreversible. Moreover, the available capacity level affects the action space for production and inventory planning decisions directly. In this article, we address the joint capacitated lot-sizing and capacity-acquisition problems. The firm can produce goods in each of the finite periods into which the production season is partitioned. Fixed as well as variable production costs are incurred for each production batch, along with inventory carrying costs. The production per period is limited by a capacity restriction. The underlying capacity must be purchased up front for the upcoming season and remains constant over the entire season. We assume that the capacity acquisition cost is smooth and convex. For this situation, we develop a model which combines the complexity of time-varying demand and cost functions and of scale economies arising from dynamic lot-sizing costs with the purchase cost of capacity. We propose a heuristic algorithm that runs in polynomial time to determine a good capacity level and corresponding lot-sizing plan simultaneously. Numerical experiments show that our method is a good trade-off between solution quality and running time.     

基于模糊需求的三级供应链库存协调策略

以一个制造商、一个分销商和一个零售商组成的三级供应链系统为研究对象,将市场需求预测视为一个三角模糊数,利用模糊数学工具和运筹学计算得到了无协调机制情况下供应链成员企业面对模糊需求时最优决策的具体表达式。然后,在此基础之上,通过构建一个关于分销商的目标规划问题建立了基于转移支付的三级供应链库存协调模型。为了验证模型的有效性和可行性,设计了一个应用算例。算例分析表明:在模糊需求环境下,利用转移支付协调机制,制造商和零售商的收益不变,但分销商和供应链的总收益增加了。     

Dynamic warehouse size planning with demand forecast and contract flexibility

This paper develops a dynamic warehouse planning model incorporating demand forecast and contract flexibility, and addresses how demand forecast and contract flexibility affect warehouse size planning. In this model, a manager announces a nominal size of the warehouse space to rent before the planning horizon begins (strategic decision), and determines the ordering quantity and actual warehouse size during the horizon (operational decision). In particular, the manager can adjust the actual warehouse size within a range according to dynamically updating demand forecast during the horizon, which reflects the contract flexibility. We start with the characterisation of the operational decision. For any given nominal size, we show the monotonicity of optimal inventory replenishment and warehousing decisions w.r.t. demand forecast and contract flexibility. However, this monotonicity does not necessarily hold for the strategic choice of the nominal size. Finally, a case study is presented to investigate the interaction between demand forecast information and contract flexibility. We find that the value of demand forecast can be enhanced as the contract flexibility improves. However, more forecasted demands do not imply higher value of contract flexibility.     

A dynamic model for serial supply chain with periodic delivery policy

A three-echelon, dynamic lot-sizing model is presented for computing the parameters of a serial supply chain, which consists of integrated material replenishment, production at a capacity constraint, and outbound dispatching with a periodic delivery policy. The model is applicable in the general context of a three-echelon model with capacity constraint at the middle echelon of the serial supply chain which was not considered in most of the literature. This paper addresses a number of structural properties of the model and proposes a polynomial-time algorithm for deriving the optimal solution of minimising the total system costs over the planning horizon. Examples are provided to describe the algorithm.     

A stochastic dynamic programming based model for uncertain production planning of re-manufacturing system

Re-manufacturing is recycling by manufacturing as-good-as-new products from used products, often involving disassembly, cleaning, testing, part replacement/repair, and re-assembly operations. Production planning and inventory control is one of the most important research issues for re-manufacturing system, which are faced with a greater degree of uncertainty and complexity. This leads to a critical need for planning and control systems designed to deal with the added uncertainty and complexity. We formulate a stochastic dynamic programming based model to study the production planning, i.e. dynamic lot sizing problem, of re-manufacturing systems. In the model the demand and return amounts are stochastic over the finite planning horizon. The objective is to determine the quantities that have to be re-manufactured at each period in order to minimise the total cost, including re-manufacturing cost, holding cost for returns and re-manufactured products and backlog cost. The optimal production plan of the re-manufacturing system over a finite planning horizon can be obtained with the policy iteration method. In the end, a numerical example is performed to illustrate how the model is applied and to prove its feasibility.     

Planning of capacity,production and inventory decisions in a generic reverse supply chain under uncertain demand and returns

There is a growing interest for the design and operation of reverse supply chain systems due to the cost and the legislation issues. In this paper, we address the disassembly, refurbishing and production operations in a reverse supply chain setting for modular products such as computers and mobile phones considering the uncertainties in this system, which are the return amounts of the used products and demand for final products. We develop a large-scale mixed integer programming model in order to capture all characteristics of this system, and use two-stage stochastic optimisation and robust optimisation approaches to analyse the system behaviour. In the first stage, we focus on the strategic decisions about the capacities at disassembly and refurbishing sites considering different scenarios regarding the uncertainties in the system. In the second stage, we analyse the operational decisions such as production, inventory and disposal rates. We observe through our extensive numerical analysis that the randomness of demand and return values effect the performance of the system substantially and the uncertainty of the return amounts of used products is much more important than the uncertainty of demand in this system.     

Service capability procurement decision in logistics service supply chain: a research under demand updating and quality guarantee

Though existing researches have already studied on service quality guarantee and demand updating in a supply chain respectively, there is little attention paid to integrated research on service quality guarantee problem with demand updating. This paper aims to investigate the impacts of demand uncertainty revelation and quality guarantee change cost (GCC) on the optimal decisions of logistics service integrator (LSI) and functional logistics service provider (FLSP) in a logistics service supply chain. At the beginning of the first period, the FLSP first guarantees an initial quality level and the LSI procures service capacity from the FLSP based on the demand prediction. Then the demand information is updated after the first-period demand being satisfied, and the LSI and the FLSP make their optimal decisions based on the renewed demand in the next period. Before the second period, uncertainty complete revelation/uncertainty incomplete revelation (UCR/UIR) and GCC/no guarantee change cost (NGCC) may take place, which will affect the decisions the LSI and the FLSP make. Consequently, four situations are considered: (1) UCR and GCC; (2) UIR and GCC; (3) UCR and NGCC; and (4) UIR and NGCC. In each situation, we derive the optimal decisions of the FLSP and the LSI, and a comparison between the first- and second-period decisions in each situation is conducted. Several managerial insights are concluded, and the most important one is that the LSI is supposed to reduce the procurement quantity and the FLSP is supposed to promise a higher quality defect rate in the case of UIR and NGCC. Furthermore, in case of UIR and GCC, we specify a critical condition in which the LSI and the FLSP insist on the initial decisions of the first period. At last, we conducted numerical analysis and gave a practical example of China Yuantong Express Company to support our conclusions.     

Manufacturing lot-sizing,procurement and delivery schedules over a finite planning horizon

In this study, an integrated manufacturing system for technology-related companies whose products are experiencing continuous price decrease during the life cycle is studied for optimal procurement, production and delivery schedules over a finite planning horizon. The model considers the inventory cost both at manufacturing and at delivery from supplier. Since the price is continuously decreasing, a manufacturing firm delivers the finished goods in small quantities frequently. Frequent deliveries in small lots are effective to reduce the total cost of the supply chain. The key for high-tech industries is to reduce the inventory holding time since the component prices are continuously decreasing, and this can only be achieved by implementing an efficient supply chain. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to develop an integrated inventory model for high-tech industries in JIT environment under continuous price decrease over finite planning horizon while effectively and successfully accomplishing supply chain integration so that the total cost of the system is minimal. An efficient algorithm is developed to determine the optimal or near-optimal lot sizes for raw material procurement, and manufacturing batch under a finite planning horizon. Finally, the solution technique developed for the model is illustrated with numerical examples.