Exploring the impact of boundedly rational power plant investment decision-making by applying prospect theory

In liberalized electricity markets, empirical findings suggest that power plant investment decision-making under uncertainty exhibits bounded rationality. This study leverages the Nobel-prize-winning theory – prospect theory – to evaluate the impact of various boundedly rational elements on electric power system transition. Results show that boundedly rational investment behavior renders higher uncertainties and higher system costs. Further analysis highlighted that reference dependence, a factor overlooked in existing studies, can dominate the system's evolution. In light of the presented results, it could be relevant for energy policy evaluation to consider, among others, the perspective and status of investors.     

Cost–benefit analysis for optimal distributed generation placement in distribution systems

This paper presents an optimisation method to determine optimal allocations of distributed generation (DGs) and capacitors based on maximisation of a profit/worth analysis approach. The optimal locations and sizes of DGs and capacitors have been determined by minimising the power distribution loss. This method considers various technical and economic factors such as line losses, sizes of DGs and capacitors at optimal locations, investment costs, operating costs and maintenance costs of DG and capacitor to achieve the objective for a predetermined number. The electricity market price of grid power has been considered to recover initial investment in a specified time period. The improvement in the voltage profile of the system has also been considered in this work. The particle swarm optimisation technique has been used to solve the optimal placement of DGs and capacitors to maximise the profit. The proposed technique is tested on 33-bus and 69-bus test systems.     

水源热泵空调系统在火电厂的应用

针对凝汽器冷却水余热的特点,某电厂空调系统采用水源热泵。详细介绍了该空调系统的供水方案和设备配置,并与常规的空调系统方案进行了初投资和运行费用的比较,结果表明,该水源热泵空调方案初投资降低,运行费用减少。测试结果表明空调系统能满足供冷供热的需求。     

Modelling and economic evaluation of pressure-retarded osmosis power plant case study: Iran

In recent years, a growing interest in investigation of new energies has been observed. Pressure-retarded osmosis (PRO) could be a feasible source of renewable energy. This study aims to present a model based on the present technology of PRO power plant components for design and economic evaluation of a PRO power plant, and to investigate case studies in order to demonstrate how each main component of a PRO power plant affects the economic evaluation. Therefore, all the mechanisms including intake and outfall systems, pre-treatment system, membrane system, and transportation and generation systems are explicated and meant to present the capability of the model to design the PRO power plant. Finally, places with a great potential to implement an osmotic power plant in Iran are evaluated. Therefore, the two best feasible sites are selected and three osmotic power plants by different capacities are designed and investigated in each site and the results are compared to explore an applicable site. Sensitivity analysis has been done to investigate effective economic factors for launching a PRO power plant. In conclusion, reducing the intake and outfall systems and pre-treatment system costs will make implementing an osmotic power plant more economical in the coming years.     

集中式污水处理系统的最佳规模研究

综合分析污水处理厂的吨水投资、管网投资和运行费用有助于弄清城镇污水末端处理的规模效应。研究表明,中、小规模污水处理厂的吨水投资、运行费用在不同处理工艺间均存在规模效应,且相关性显著;大型和特大型污水处理厂的吨水投资和运行费用均保持在较低的范围内,且随着处理规模的增加而逐步稳定;当污水管网的收集规模<6×104m3/d时,其吨水投资的规模效应突出;随着污水管网规模的增大,吨水管网投资趋于较低的水平。当污水处理厂仅作为排水系统的末端环节时,综合考虑污水处理厂和收集管网的单位投资及运行费用等因素,最佳的处理规模为10×104m3/d左右;当污水处理厂具有污染治理和污水再生回用的双重功能而成为水资源循环的中间环节时,适宜的污水处理规模受多种因素的影响,区域性的半集中式处理模式将成为一种可行的选择。     

Feasibility study of wind farms: A case study for Izmir, Turkey

Wind is one of the world's fastest growing renewable energy sources. The rapid growth in wind power is a result of improvements accomplished in technology. This paper presents the technical and economical feasibility of wind farms. The method is applied to a potential wind farm site located in Izmir, Turkey. The site is considered on technical and economical parameters for the complete plant and its running costs. For technical consideration wind speed, prevailing wind direction, and temperature measurements are performed. For economical consideration, three different scenarios namely, autoproducer, autoproducer group, and independent power producer (IPP) cases, are investigated and compared with respect to net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and pay back period (PBP) criteria. The study indicates the costs of generated energy by wind turbines with different characteristics as a function of the installed capacity. It is concluded that, the larger the installed capacity, the smaller the generating cost per kWh. The generating cost was calculated as low as 2.68 UScent/kWh for the IPP scenario. The profitability analysis also shows that, larger installed capacity with larger rated power wind turbines present higher IRR of the investment. The sensitivity analysis backs up the findings.     

电厂通风方式选择的可行性分析

电厂厂房选择合理的通风方式至关重要,在机械通风的基础上适当的引入自然风,能够起到节能、降低投资成本的作用。通过CFD模拟验证了自然进风、自然排风以及自然排风与机械排风相结合的方式的合理性,同时数值模拟手段也可为通风设计优化提供有力指导。     

Technology choices for new entrants in liberalized markets: The value of operating flexibility and contractual arrangements

New entrants in liberalized electricity markets which are not vertically integrated and do not operate a large and diversified portfolio of generation technologies are likely to favour technologies which offer the best prospects to manage fuel and electricity price risks through contractual arrangements and operating flexibility. Monte Carlo simulations of a discounted cash flow model of investment in combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), coal and nuclear power plant are run to compare the impact of fuel and electricity price risks on these different technologies, as well as the value of operating flexibility and contractual hedges. In the absence of long-term fixed-price power purchase contracts, CCGT is the least risky option as its cash flow is “self-hedged” given the high correlation between electricity and gas prices observed in many markets. Moreover, the value associated with operating flexibility and arbitrage between gas and power market is greater for CCGT plant. This makes CCGT particularly attractive to new entrants.     

巴基斯坦人马座项目供配电系统优化设计

介绍巴基斯坦人马座工程11kV配电系统、自备柴油发电机供电系统,及两系统的优化设计。依据国内外规范和标准,结合项目负荷性质、用电容量等工程特点,优化原国外设计方的供电方案,在满足相关标准的基础上,为建造方大大节约了投资。     

Innovative method for energy management: Modelling and optimal operation of energy systems

This paper presents an optimal management control strategy for power systems in industrial plants. A dedicated code has been developed to perform system analysis and simulation. The energy/mass balances existing between building and power plant has been depicted through a mathematical model based on vector equations, taking into account the behaviour of each system component. The main result is the definition of the power plant component set points satisfying the energy load under predefined optimization criterion (i.e. system efficiency, costs, pollutant emissions). Input data are the industrial plant loads, both electric and thermal, the technical characteristic of the installations, and the cost of electricity and fuel. As a general result we show that the optimal management of a power plant is as significant as the efficiency of its components for energy saving purposes. In particular, the correlation between the component set point profiles and the energy/cost/pollution savings is highlighted. Yearly simulations are performed on an existing energy system of an industrial plant varying the frequency of energy load dataset. The considered time steps are month, half a day, 4 h and 1 h. The results demonstrate that the whole power plant management leads to a global reduction of the cost and that the availability of more detailed energy load dataset leads to better operation cost estimation. As expected, considering a large time-step, the variation of energy load is not appreciable.The energy saving potential of this method is demonstrated allowing the best plant management solution under different energy loads.     

复合实物期权在风电项目投资评估中的应用

与传统的能源发电投资相比,风电项目投资存在更多风险因素,从而带来了更大的不确定性,为确保风电项目投资的效益,无论对风电项目投资者而言,还是从我国风能资源发展角度出发,都迫切需要一个可量化风险的投资决策工具来辅助指导投资者做出科学的投资决策。基于实物期权理论的投资决策方法能有效地处理投资中各种风险因素带来的不确定性,弥补传统NPV 法在这方面的不足,是一种更为科学、合理的投资决策评价方法。针对风电项目工程具有的复合实物期权特性,提出了在风电项目投资决策中引入复合实物期权思路和模型,并以实例讨论了Geske 复合期权定价模型的应用方法,验证了实物期权方法在评估风电项目投资项目价值时的有效性。     

Advantages of Using 3-D CAD Plant Models on the Construction Site

Abstract: For many engineering and construction firms, the majority of a project's total cost is often incurred in the construction phase. In order to address the productivity and profitability of construction projects, one has to consider a variety of factors. This paper presents new techniques that RUST International has employed to address construction cost reduction. It focuses on using the intelligence built into the three-dimensional (3-D) computer-aided design (CAD) plant model during design and applying it to construction project management at the job site. The Jacobus Technology JSpace system is used for modeling and interacting with the large and complex 3-D plant model. Applications developed by RUST on the JSpace platform, which provide for construction planning, material control, and support of plant startup, will be introduced. The analysis shows that use of the 3-D CAD model on the job site can provide substantial reductions in work hours and office costs, provide marked reductions in craft labor costs, and help reduce bulk material surplus as well as shorten project schedules. The system is shown to be an effective communication tool in bringing engineers, contractors, and owners together by using advanced 3-D animation of the plant.     

管式膜——生物反应器处理城市污水的工艺设计

在中试的基础上,提出了膜－生物反应器工艺设计的基本原则,方法,步骤,以某民小区的中水回用为目标进行了模拟设计计算,并探讨了该工艺的运行能耗及固定投资。     

MIP approach for designing heating systems in residential buildings and neighbourhoods

In this work, a mixed integer linear programming (MIP) approach for the optimal design of energy systems in residential buildings is presented. The optimization model considers the economic criteria of the guideline VDI 2067. The objective of the MIP is to minimize the annual costs which comprise the investment as well as demand- and operation-related costs. Conventional boilers, electrical heaters, combined heat and power (CHP) units, heat pumps (HPs), photovoltaic (PV) systems and thermal storages as well as local heating networks (HNs) are defined as options. The investigation on a building level shows that a boiler is the economically optimal solution for small buildings, followed by a HP unit. In multi-family buildings, both boilers and CHP units hold an economical advantage over HPs. For apartment buildings, CHP is identified as the economically optimal system. In the neighbourhood analysis of six buildings, the solver establishes a local HN which allows for both economical and CO₂-emission reductions.     

PPP 模式下电网公司参与合肥市城市地下综合管廊项目的融资分析

随着城镇化进程的加快,城市管线的铺设问题成为当今关注的热点,政府开始大力推动城市地下综合管廊的建设。在综合管廊项目的建设中,投资难成为其发展的阻力。因此,各地政府积极通过 PPP 模式吸引社会资本参与综合管廊的建设。以安徽电网公司在合肥的某综合管廊项目为背景,介绍了 PPP 模式下城市地下综合管廊融资的因素,从全寿命周期成本的角度,分析不同模式下电网公司在综合管廊中铺设 110kV 电缆的情况。根据分析结果,针对电力管线通过 PPP 模式纳入地下综合管廊提出了相应的对策建议。     

集中供热、燃气锅炉及电热供暖系统的经济分析

对采用集中供热，燃气锅炉及电热供暖系统分别进行了经济比较，其结果表明集中供热系统运行费用最低，电热供暖系统运行费用最高；电暖器供暖系统初投资最低，除集中供热地板供暖系统之外顶棚电热膜供暖系统初投资最高。     

The determinants of location choice: Single plants versus multi‐plants*

This paper adopts a count data model to explore the distinction between single plant and multi‐plant location choices. It is hypothesized that start‐up location decisions would be determined by supply variables (land, labour and capital costs, workforce and technological characteristics); demand variables (market size and market accessibility) and agglomeration economies. We use plant data and focus on location choices within Portuguese municipalities. Our research shows that new multi‐plants are particularly sensitive to urbanization economies, land costs and the size of the local market, while new single plants are more responsive to labour costs, both localization and urbanization economies and accessibility to main markets.     

The role of investment and regulatory reforms in the development of infrastructure across transition economies

The main aim of this paper is to assess whether investment in infrastructure and broader institutional infrastructure reforms have been reflected in better infrastructure service provision across transition economies. Our econometric analysis corroborated by case studies evidence shows that at the enterprise level the reduction of utility arrears is significantly associated to lower costs in terms of interruption of power and telecom service provision. This suggests that the discipline exercised by private sector involvement is starting to have some impact. At the country level, our regression results show that increased investment, tariff increases and the establishment of an independent regulator are all significantly associated to the reduction of power and telecom outages.     

尾水发电在重庆市鸡冠石污水处理厂的应用

重庆市鸡冠石污水处理厂是我国西南地区规模最大的污水处理厂,目前运行规模旱季为60×104m3/d,雨季为135×104m3/d,出水水质执行《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》(GB18918—2002)的一级B标准。为响应国家节能减排的号召,该厂利用尾水发电,即污水处理量为(55～60)×104m3/d,发电量为18 000～19 300 kW.h/d,占污水厂用电总量的15%以上,4～5年即可收回投资。这为污水厂降低运行成本、合理利用处理出水开辟了新的领域。     

煤改电项目中空气源热泵系统分析

为了治理环境,改善人居环境,近年来越来越多的煤改电项目中,用空气源热泵来替代小煤炉,在改造过程中,空气源热泵系统的选择对整个系统的初投资及运行费用都有很大影响.本文比较了煤改电项目中几种形式系统的特点和经济性,得出了闭式空气源热泵系统在煤改电项目中更具优势的结论.