Forecasting impacts of climate change on Great Lakes surface water temperatures

Temperature influences the rates of many ecosystem processes. A number of recent studies have found evidence of systematic increases in Great Lakes surface water temperatures. Our study aims to construct empirical relationships between surface water temperatures and local air temperatures that can be used to estimate future water temperatures using future air temperatures generated by global climate models. Remotely sensed data were used to model lake-wide average surface water temperature patterns during the open-water period in Lakes Superior, Huron, Erie, and Ontario. Surface water temperatures typically exhibit linear warming through the spring, form a plateau in mid-summer and then exhibit linear cooling in fall. Lake-specific warming and cooling rates vary little from year to year while plateau values vary substantially across years. These findings were used to construct a set of lake-specific empirical models linking surface water temperatures to local air temperatures for the period 1995–2006. Hindcasted whole-lake water temperatures from these models compare favourably to independently collected offshore water temperatures for the period 1968–2002. Relationships linking offshore water temperatures to inshore water temperatures at specific sites are also described. Predictions of future climates generated by the Canadian Global Climate Model Version 2 (CGCM2) under two future greenhouse gas emission scenarios are used to scope future Great Lakes surface water temperatures: substantial increases are expected, along with increases in the duration of summer stratification.     

The past is a key to the future: Lessons paleoecological data can provide for management of the African Great Lakes

Rapid ecological changes in the African Great Lakes (AGL) present lake managers with extraordinary challenges to understand the changes' underlying causes and forecast what they portend for the future. Monitoring and experimental data from the AGL are essential but are limited in duration and continuity. The magnitude of change suggests that a centennial-millennial timescale perspective is needed to identify drivers of change and prepare for changes yet to come. In this review I propose that paleoecological and paleolimnological approaches can provide this perspective.AGL paleorecords have documented the impacts of excess sedimentation, external nutrient loading, and climate change, and can demonstrate the specific ecosystem responses associated with these various drivers. Paleorecords can help us understand how multiple stressors interact and in some cases can falsify specific cause-and-effect hypotheses when the putative causes can be shown to have occurred after the effect started.The number of useful AGL paleorecords is still quite small. Replication is needed to test if patterns seen and hypotheses inferred from single localities are robust for an entire lake, and to understand regional variability within and between lakes. Because many paleorecord methods are quite inexpensive it would be highly desirable if these approaches were incorporated into the routine tool kit of local AGL scientists working in tandem with fisheries and water-quality scientists. Training African lake scientists and conservation biologists to analyze paleorecords should be a high priority for AGL stakeholders interested in the long-term prognoses for the economic and biodiversity resources that they oversee.     

Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the Great Lakes region driven by three global data sets

The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990–1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-surface temperatures derived from the NCEP Global Reanalysis and output from the CCSM3 and GISS general circulation models (GCMs). The simulation results are compared to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The three RCM simulations appeared to be more accurate in winter and least accurate in summer, and more accurate aloft than near the surface. The reanalysis-constrained simulation adequately captured the spatial distribution and seasonal cycle of the observed surface-air temperature and precipitation, but it produced consistently across all seasons a cold bias that is generally larger over the lakes than over land and a wet bias due to an overestimation of non-convective precipitation. The simulated seasonal cycle of moisture–flux convergence over the region was in very good agreement with NARR. The two GCM-driven runs adequately simulated the spatial and seasonal variation of temperature, but overestimated cold-season precipitation and underestimated summer precipitation, reversing the observed annual precipitation cycle. The GISS-driven run failed to simulate the prevailing low-level flow and moisture convergence patterns. All three RCM simulations successfully captured the impact of the Great Lakes on the region's climate, especially on winter precipitation, a significant improvement over coarse-resolution GCM simulations over the region.     

Reducing current and future risks: Using climate change scenarios to test an agricultural conservation framework

Evaluating the potential effects of changes in climate on conservation practices can help inform strategies to protect freshwater biodiversity that are robust, even as conditions change. Here we apply a climate change “test” to a framework for estimating the amount of agricultural conservation practices needed to achieve desired fish conservation outcomes for four watersheds in the Saginaw Bay region of Michigan, USA. We developed three climate scenarios from global climate model outputs (high emissions scenario, “2080s” timeframe) to provide insight on potential impacts of a climate driver that represents a key uncertainty for this management system, the amount and timing of spring and summer precipitation. These scenarios were used as inputs to agricultural watershed models, which produced water quality outputs that we compared to thresholds in fish biodiversity metrics at the subwatershed scale. Our results suggest that impacts of climate change on evaporation rates and other aspects of hydrology will shift the relative importance of key stressors for fish (i.e., sediment loadings vs. nutrient concentrations) across these different watersheds, highlighting the need to design resilient implementation plans and policies. Overall, we found that changes in climate are likely to increase the need for agricultural conservation practices, but that increasing the implementation rate above current levels will likely remain a good investment under current and future climate conditions.     

Changes in mid-summer water temperature and clarity across the Great Lakes between 1968 and 2002

In recent decades, three important events have likely played a role in changing the water temperature and clarity of the Laurentian Great Lakes: 1) warmer climate, 2) reduced phosphorus loading, and 3) invasion by European Dreissenid mussels. This paper compiled environmental data from government agencies monitoring the middle and lower portions of the Great Lakes basin (lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario) to document changes in aquatic environments between 1968 and 2002. Over this 34-year period, mean annual air temperature increased at an average rate of 0.037 °C/y, resulting in a 1.3 °C increase. Surface water temperature during August has been rising at annual rates of 0.084 °C (Lake Huron) and 0.048 °C (Lake Ontario) resulting in increases of 2.9 °C and 1.6 °C, respectively. In Lake Erie, the trend was also positive, but it was smaller and not significant. Water clarity, measured here by August Secchi depth, increased in all lakes. Secchi depth increased 1.7 m in Lake Huron, 3.1 m in Lake Ontario and 2.4 m in Lake Erie. Prior to the invasion of Dreissenid mussels, increases in Secchi depth were significant (p < 0.05) in lakes Erie and Ontario, suggesting that phosphorus abatement aided water clarity. After Dreissenid mussel invasion, significant increases in Secchi depth were detected in lakes Ontario and Huron.     

Impacts on biodiversity and species changes in the lower Great Lakes

The Great Lakes basin ecosystem evolved after the retreat of the last ice sheet, about 10 000 years ago. Today, the complex of species present in the Great Lakes and much of the visible landscape bears little resemblance to that found some 400 years ago. Rather, the effects of various aspects of human development have caused major changes in the natural biodiversity. Lessons learned in the lower Great Lakes are applicable to many lakes around the world that have undergone agricultural, industrial and urban development in their drainage basins and have become managed, artificial ecosystems.     

Analysis of changes in the Great Lakes hydro-climatic variables

A study of changes in hydro-climatology of the Great Lakes was performed incorporating the nonparametric Mann–Kendall trend detection test and a recently developed Bayesian multiple change point detection model. The Component Net Basin Supply (C-NBS) and its components (runoff, precipitation, evaporation) as well as water levels of Great Lakes were analyzed for gradual (i.e. trend type) and abrupt (i.e. shift type) nonstationary behaviors at seasonal and annual scales. It was found that the C-NBS experienced significant upward trends only in the lower Great Lakes (Erie, Ontario) during the summer portion of the year. At an annual scale upward trends were observed only in Lake Ontario. Change point analysis suggested an upward shift in Great Lakes C-NBS in the late 1960s and early 1970s. A combination of gradual and abrupt change analysis of Great Lakes water levels indicated a common upward shift along with a change in trend direction around the early 1970s. It was also found that precipitation and runoff are on a plateau and in some cases on a decreasing course following an increasing trend in the early twentieth century. Results obtained from this study show that the hydro-climatology of Great Lakes is characterized by nonstationary behavior. Changes in this behavior have caused the Great Lakes water levels to decrease during the last few decades. This study provides valuable insights into the nature of the nonstationary behavior of hydro-climatic variables of Great Lakes and contributes useful information to the future water management planning.     

Dissolved Organic Matter in the Great Lakes: Role and Nature of Allochthonous Material

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) quality and the modifying influence of light on DOM bioavailability were investigated along a natural gradient of allochthonous influence in the lower Great Lakes. Using parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC), three DOM fluorophores were identified. One fluorophore, previously identified as peak C, was of allochthonous (component 1) origin and two previously uncharacterized fluorophores were identified as autochthonous (components 2 and 3). Component 1 was photoreactive and the dominant form in creek water samples while components 2 and 3 were dominant in Hamilton Harbour and lake water samples. Components 2 and 3 showed limited photoreactivity. Exposure to full spectrum irradiance decreased the average molecular weight of DOM (i.e., increased the absorbance ratio (a254:a365)) for all water samples. DOM bioavailability was lowest in creek and highest in lake water samples and was inversely related to DOM average molecular weight. Photomodification of DOM resulted in higher bacterial activity although these differences were not significantly different. This suggests that light plays a significant role in the cycling of terrestrially-derived DOM and to a certain extent autochthonous DOM, potentially increasing metabolism of both terrestrially and microbially derived DOM in the Great Lakes aquatic ecosystems.     

Fish movement and migration studies in the Laurentian Great Lakes: Research trends and knowledge gaps

Resource management agencies in the Laurentian Great Lakes routinely conduct studies of fish movement and migration to understand the temporal and spatial distribution of fishes within and between the lakes and their tributaries. This literature has never been summarized and evaluated to identify common themes and future research opportunities. We reviewed 112 studies, published between 1952 and 2010, with the goal of summarizing existing research on the movement and migration of fishes in the Laurentian Great Lakes. The most commonly studied species were Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush), Walleye (Sander vitreus), and Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens). Studies relied mainly on mark-recapture techniques with comparatively few using newer technologies such as biotelemetry, hydroacoustics, or otolith microchemistry/isotope analysis. Most movement studies addressed questions related to reproductive biology, effects of environmental factors on movement, stocking, and habitat use. Movement-related knowledge gaps were identified through the literature synthesis and a survey distributed to Great Lakes fisheries managers. Future studies on emigration/immigration of fishes through lake corridors, the dispersal of stocked fishes and of stock mixing were identified as being particularly important given their potential for developing lake- or region-wide harvest regulations and stocking strategies. The diversity of tools for studying fish movement across multiple years and various spatial scales gives researchers new abilities to address key science questions and management needs. Addressing these needs has the potential to improve upon existing fisheries management practices within the complexity of multi-jurisdictional governance in the Laurentian Great Lakes.     

Vegetation Change in Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands: Deviation from the Historical Cycle

Water-level change is integral to the structure and function of Great Lakes coastal wetlands, and many studies document predictable relationships between vegetation and water level. However, anthropogenic stressors, such as invasive species, land-use change, and water-level stabilization, interact to shift the historical cycle (of native vegetation migration up- and down-slope) toward dominance by invasive Typha species. Knowing from earlier studies that water-level stabilization alters the historical vegetation cycle, we asked if similar shifts can occur where water levels are not stabilized. Using historical aerial photographs of three coastal wetlands (in Lake Michigan's Green Bay, Wisconsin), we determined that habitat dominated by Typha species has expanded to eliminate wet meadow habitat. Between 1974 and 1992, linear regressions showed strong, significant relationships of both meadow area (R² ≥ 0.894; p < 0.02) and marsh area (R² ≥ 0.784; p < 0.05) to water level in all three wetlands. In 2000, meadow area was below that predicted by the historical pattern due to the landward advance of marsh habitat during a year of decreasing water levels. In the same period, land use in the wetland watersheds converted from agriculture to urban. Urbanization and the replacement of native Typha latifolia by the invasive hybrid Typha xglauca may have overwhelmed the beneficial impact of water-level fluctuation. The documentation of vegetation shifts, as herein, is an essential step in the process of preserving and restoring ecological integrity.     

Exploring market-based environmental policy for groundwater management and ecosystem protection for the Great Lakes region: Lessons learned

The Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact (the Compact) was created to protect future water supplies and aquatic ecosystems in the Great Lakes. The Compact requires the eight Great Lakes state to regulate, among other things, large withdrawals of groundwater and surface water so that they do not negatively affect stream flows and ecosystems within the Great Lakes Basin. Thus, the Compact raises the possibility of increased restrictions on groundwater withdrawals in many locations throughout the Great Lakes region. However, restricting withdrawals is likely to encounter opposition from water users when such restrictions are viewed as an infringement on existing water use rights and/or as negatively impacting local economic development. Such conflicts could hinder effective implementation of state and regional water policy. This paper explores the application of a market-based environmental management tool called “Conservation Credit Offsets Trading (CCOT)” that could facilitate allocation of groundwater withdrawals, and develops a framework for guiding the implementation of CCOT within the context of a groundwater permitting system. Using a watershed in southwestern Michigan, this study demonstrates how bio-physical information and input from various local stakeholders were combined to aid groundwater policy designed to achieve the objective of no net (adverse) impact on stream ecosystems. By allowing flexibility through trading of conservation credit offsets, this groundwater policy tool appears to be more politically acceptable than traditional, less flexible, regulations. The results and discussion provide useful lessons learned with relevance to other areas in the Great Lakes Basin.     

Identifying and classifying Great Lakes ship transits using a state machine approach

Invasive, aquatic organisms have entered the North America Great Lakes from ships' ballast water, often originating from Europe. Current approaches for preventing the introduction of such organisms in ballast water include ballast water treatment (BWT) or ballast water exchange (BWE). This paper examines BWE, which is conducted in (1) waters >200 nautical miles (nm) from shore, or (2) waters >50?nm from shore and >200?m deep. We used historical records of ships transiting from Europe to the Great Lakes during one year (2014) to determine the duration (in days) that ships were within waters that met the criteria for BWE. Ship paths were classified based upon transitions between location-assigned “states” (e.g., from European waters across the North Atlantic Ocean to North America), and from these state transitions, four types of routes were identified. On average, ships sailing these routes had between 3.5 and 4.7 d to perform BWE in areas >200?nm from shore and 4.7 to 6.2 d when >50?nm from shore and >200-m deep water. Conducting BWE in daylight hours, if deemed necessary for safety, shortened the time window for BWE, especially in winter months, by approximately 50–70%. The state “machine” approach could, in the future, be used to identify ships from specific regions (e.g., ports within waterways at high risk of harboring potentially invasive species). Reshaping the definition of regional boundaries based upon time-of-year, water temperature, or other variables would further refine the ability to identify high-risk transits.     

Perchlorate in environmental waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed: Evidence for uneven loading

A database of nearly 500 analyses of perchlorate in water samples from the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL) watershed is presented, including samples from streams, from the Great Lakes and their connecting waters, with a special emphasis on Lake Erie. These data were assessed to test an earlier hypothesis that loading of perchlorate to the LGL watershed is relatively uniform. Higher perchlorate concentrations in streams in more developed and urban areas appear to indicate higher rates of loading from anthropogenic sources in these areas. Variable perchlorate concentrations in samples from Lake Erie indicate transient (un-mixed) conditions, and suggest loss by microbial degradation, focused in the central basin of that lake. Interpretation of the data included estimation of annual loading by streams in various sub-watersheds, and simulations (steady state and transient state) of the mass balance of perchlorate in the Great Lakes. The results suggest uneven loading from atmospheric deposition and other sources.     

Large lakes in climate models: A Great Lakes case study on the usability of CMIP5

Large lakes have an impact on regional weather. In addition, they can be both sensitive to and influence regional climate changes. In the climate models that are used to investigate future climate changes, lakes are greatly simplified and sometimes absent. At the regional scale, this can have strong implications for the quality of the model information about the future. Through our work with climate information users in the Laurentian Great Lakes region, we have found that basic credibility of the information requires the underlying climate models simulate lake-atmosphere-land interactions. We are not aware of efforts within the scientific community to make known how individual large lakes are represented in models and how those representations translate to the quality of the data for particular regions. We share our framework for identifying how the Laurentian Great Lakes are represented in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) version 5 climate models. We found that most CMIP5 models do not simulate the Great Lakes in a way that captures their impact on the regional climate, which is a credibility issue for their projections. We provide a perspective on the usability of CMIP5 for practitioners in the Great Lakes region and offer recommendations for alternative options.     

Fatty acids in Great Lakes lake trout and whitefish

Fish are an excellent source of lean protein and omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) but there is inadequate information on the levels of PUFAs in freshwater fish and specifically Great Lakes fish. Knowledge of PUFAs is necessary to make informed decisions regarding the balance between the benefits of fish consumption due to these factors versus risks of adverse health effects associated with elevated levels of contaminants known to be present in some Great Lakes fish and linked to increased risk of cancer and adverse neurological effects to both infants and adults. Our goal was to determine the lipid profiles in two species of Great Lakes fish, lake trout and whitefish. Total fat and the percentage of total and omega-3 PUFAs were with one exception significantly higher in lake trout than whitefish. Average concentrations of EPA + DHA were 11.2 and 9.7 g/100 g lipid in lake trout and whitefish, respectively. The concentrations of EPA + DHA in fatty marine fish (22.7, 23.9 and 30.2 g/100 g lipid, respectively) are about double those found in Great Lakes lake trout and whitefish. Nevertheless a 100 g serving of Great Lakes lake trout provides more than 500 mg of EPA + DHA, which is the daily intake level recommended by the American Dietetics Association for the prevention of coronary heart disease.     

Sustainable fisheries management in the Great Lakes: Scientific and operational challenges

Fisheries managers seek to sustain Great Lakes' fish populations in a large, complex lake‐watershed ecosystem responding to often competing issues: non‐indigenous species, resource allocation and environmental quality. Within the past 200 years, human activity has caused dramatic changes in the character of this ecosystem. Before the 1900s, the offshore fish communities in each of the Great Lakes were dominated by the piscivorous lake trout and burbot. The current fish fauna of the Great Lakes' basin includes 179 species representing 29 families in 18 orders and two classes of fish. Twenty‐five non‐indigenous fish species have established populations in the Great Lakes' ecosystem. Sustainable management of Great Lakes' fisheries depends on social, economic and ecological factors. Hundreds of millions of dollars are spent annually to protect and preserve Great Lakes' fisheries and their associated ecosystems. Management of Great Lakes' fisheries on a species‐by‐species basis is pointless. Recreational fishing provides larger economic benefits on the Great Lakes, compared to commercial fisheries. Further, quota management, even when practiced at levels well below maximum sustainable yield, does not lead to stable fish communities. Management will be constrained more by ecological reality than by economic forces, but ultimately a managed system comprised of both indigenous and non‐indigenous fishes is a logical objective.     

Polymethylene-interrupted fatty acids: Biomarkers for native and exotic mussels in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Freshwater organisms synthesize a wide variety of fatty acids (FAs); however, the ability to synthesize and/or subsequently modify a particular FA is not universal, making it possible to use certain FAs as biomarkers. Herein we document the occurrence of unusual FAs (polymethylene-interrupted fatty acids; PMI-FAs) in select freshwater organisms in the Laurentian Great Lakes. We did not detect PMI-FAs in: (a) natural seston from Lake Erie and Hamilton Harbor (Lake Ontario), (b) various species of laboratory-cultured algae including a green alga (Scenedesmus obliquus), two cyanobacteria (Aphanizomenon flos-aquae and Synechococystis sp.), two diatoms (Asterionella formosa, Diatoma elongatum) and a chrysophyte (Dinobryon cylindricum) or, (c) zooplankton (Daphnia spp., calanoid or cyclopoid copepods) from Lake Ontario, suggesting that PMI-FAs are not substantively incorporated into consumers at the phytoplankton-zooplankton interface. However, these unusual FAs comprised 4-6% of total fatty acids (on a dry tissue weight basis) of native fat mucket (Lampsilis siliquoidea) and plain pocketbook (L. cardium) mussels and in invasive zebra (Dreissena polymorpha) and quagga (D. bugensis) mussels. We were able to clearly partition Great Lakes' mussels into three separate groups (zebra, quagga, and native mussels) based solely on their PMI-FA profiles. We also provide evidence for the trophic transfer of PMI-FAs from mussels to various fishes in Lakes Ontario and Michigan, further underlining the potential usefulness of PMI-FAs for tracking the dietary contribution of mollusks in food web and contaminant-fate studies.     

Invasive cattail reduces fish diversity and abundance in the emergent marsh of a Great Lakes coastal wetland

Great Lakes coastal wetlands (GLCWs) provide critical fish habitat. The invasion of GLCWs by hybrid and narrow-leaved cattail, Typha × glauca and Typha angustifolia (hereafter Typha), homogenizes wetlands by out-competing native plant species and producing copious litter. However, the effect of this invasion on fish communities is little known. To measure the effect of Typha on fishes, we established plots in Typha invaded and native wetland emergent zones in a northern Lake Michigan coastal wetland, and measured environmental variables, plants, and fishes in each zone over two summers. Dissolved oxygen and water temperature were significantly lower in invaded compared to native plots. Invaded plots were dominated by Typha and its litter; whereas. sedges (Carex spp.) were the most abundant species in native plots. Fish abundance and species richness were significantly lower in Typha compared to native wetland plots. The Typha fish community was dominated by hypoxia tolerant mudminnow whereas other small, schooling, fusiform species such as cyprinids and fundulids were absent. These results illustrate the negative impact of a dominant invasive plant on Great Lakes fishes that is expected to be found in Typha invasions in other GLCWs.