Mode selection of China's urban heating and its potential for reducing energy consumption and CO2 emission

China's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission ranks the highest in the world. CO₂ emission from urban central heating, which has an average annual growth rate of 10.3%, is responsible for 4.4% of China's total CO₂ emission. The current policy for improving urban central heating focuses on replacing coal with natural gas. This paper analyzes the existing situation and problems pertaining to urban heating, and evaluates the potential for reducing energy consumption and CO₂ emission by heat pump heating. The results show that the current policy of replacing coal with natural gas for urban central heating decreases energy consumption and CO₂ emission by 16.6% and 63.5%, respectively. On the other hand, replacing coal-based urban central heating with heat pump heating is capable of decreasing energy consumption and CO₂ emission by 57.6% and 81.4%, respectively. Replacing both urban central and decentralized heating with heat pump heating can lead to 67.7% and 85.8% reduction in energy consumption and CO₂ emission, respectively. The decreases in CO₂ emission will account for 24.5% of China's target to reduce total CO₂ emission by 2020.     

Regional development and carbon emissions in China

China announced at the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015 that the country would reach peak carbon emissions around 2030. Since then, widespread attention has been devoted to determining when and how this goal will be achieved. This study aims to explore the role of China's changing regional development patterns in the achievement of this goal. This study uses the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to estimate seven socioeconomic drivers of the changes in CO₂ emissions in China since 2000. The results show that China's carbon emissions have plateaued since 2012 mainly because of energy efficiency gains and structural upgrades (i.e., industrial structure, energy mix and regional structure). Regional structure, measured by provincial economic growth shares, has drastically reduced CO₂ emissions since 2012. The effects of these drivers on emissions changes varied across regions due to their different regional development patterns. Industrial structure and energy mix resulted in emissions growth in some regions, but these two drivers led to emissions reduction at the national level. For example, industrial structure reduced China's CO₂ emissions by 1.0% from 2013 to 2016; however, it increased CO₂ emissions in the Northeast and Northwest regions by 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively. Studying China's plateauing CO₂ emissions in the new normal stage at the regional level yields a strong recommendation that China's regions cooperate to improve development patterns.     

The role of CO2 embodiment in US–China trade

This study examines the influence of US–China trade on national and global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂). The three basic questions are as follows: (1) What amount of CO₂ emissions is avoided in the US by importing Chinese goods? (2) How much are CO₂ emissions in China increased as a result of the production of goods for export to the US? and (3) What are the impacts of US–China trade on global CO₂ emissions? Our initial findings reveal that during 1997–2003: (1) US CO₂ emissions would have increased from 3% to 6% if the goods imported from China had been produced in the US, (2) About 7%–14% of China's current CO₂ emissions were a result of producing exports for US consumers, and (3) US–China trade has increased global CO₂ emissions by an estimated 720 million metric tons. We suggest that the export of US technologies and expertise related to clean production and energy efficiency to China could be a “win–win” strategy for both countries for reducing their trade imbalance and mitigating global CO₂ emissions. Improved international accounting methodologies for assigning responsibility for CO₂ emissions must be designed to account for the dynamic nature of international trade.     

Factors influencing CO2 emissions in China's power industry: Co-integration analysis

More than 40% of China's total CO₂ emissions originate from the power industry. The realization of energy saving and emission reduction within China's power industry is therefore crucial in order to achieve CO₂ emissions reduction in this country. This paper applies the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration model to study the major factors which have influenced CO₂ emissions within China's power industry from 1980 to 2010. Results have shown that CO₂ emissions from China's power industry have been increasing rapidly. From 1980 to 2010, the average annual growth rate was 8.5%, and the average growth rate since 2002 has amounted to 10.5%. Secondly, the equipment utilization hour (as an indicator of the power demand) has the greatest influence on CO₂ emissions within China's power industry. In addition, the impact of the industrial added value of the power sector on CO₂ emissions is also positive from a short-term perspective. Thirdly, the Granger causality results imply that one of the important motivators behind China's technological progress, within the power industry, originates from the pressures created by a desire for CO₂ emissions reduction. Finally, this paper provides policy recommendations for energy saving and emission reduction for China's power industry.     

China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model

Although China became the world's largest CO₂ emitter in 2007, the country has also taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity. This study uses the bottom-up LBNL China End-Use Energy Model to assess the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its 2020 intensity reduction goals. Two scenarios – Continued Improvement and Accelerated Improvement – were developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to reduce energy demand and emissions. This scenario analysis presents an important modeling approach based in the diffusion of end-use technologies and physical drivers of energy demand and thereby help illuminate China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies. The findings suggest that China's CO₂ emissions will not likely continue growing throughout this century because of saturation effects in appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways, fertilizer use; and population peak around 2030 with slowing urban population growth. The scenarios also underscore the significant role that policy-driven efficiency improvements will play in meeting 2020 carbon mitigation goals along with a decarbonized power supply.     

Evaluation of energy saving potential in China's cement industry using the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model and the technology promotion policy analysis

Much of China's cement industry still uses outdated kilns and other inefficient technologies, which are obstacles to improving energy efficiency. Huge improvements in energy consumption intensity can be made by improving this technology. To evaluate the potential for energy-saving and CO₂ emissions reduction in China's cement industry between 2010 and 2020, a model was developed based on the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). Three scenarios (S1, S2 and S3) were developed to describe future technology policy measures in relation to the development of the cement industry. Results show that scenario S3 would realize the potential for CO₂ emissions mitigation of 361.0 million tons, accounting for 25.24% of the predicted emissions, with an additional energy saving potential of 39.0 million tons of coal equivalent by 2020. Technology promotion and industrial structure adjustment are the main measures that can lead to energy savings. Structural adjustment is the most important approach to reduce the CO₂ emissions from the cement industry; the resulting potential for CO₂ emissions reduction will be increasingly large, even exceeding 50% after 2016.     

Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China

China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO₂). As exports account for about one-third of China's GDP, the CO₂ emissions are related to not only China's own consumption but also external demand. Using the input–output analysis (IOA), we analyze the embodied CO₂ emissions of China's import and export. Our results show that about 3357 million tons CO₂ emissions were embodied in the exports and the emissions avoided by imports (EAI) were 2333 million tons in 2005. The average contribution to embodied emission factors by electricity generation was over 35%. And that by cement production was about 20%. It implies that the production-based emissions of China are more than the consumption-based emissions, which is evidence that carbon leakage occurs under the current climate policies and international trade rules. In addition to the call for a new global framework to allocate emission responsibilities, China should make great efforts to improve its energy efficiency, carry out electricity pricing reforms and increase renewable energy. In particular, to use advanced technology in cement production will be helpful to China's CO₂ abatement.     

Can expanding natural gas infrastructure mitigate CO2 emissions? Analysis of heterogeneous and mediation effects for China

To verify whether the expansion of natural gas infrastructure can effectively mitigate carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in China, this study first investigates the impact of natural gas infrastructure on China's CO₂ emissions by employing a balanced panel dataset for 30 Chinese provinces covering 2004–2017. Fully considering the potential heterogeneity and asymmetry, the two-step panel quantile regression approach is utilized. Also, to test the mediation impact mechanism between natural gas infrastructure and CO₂ emissions, this study then analyzes the three major mediation effects of natural gas infrastructure on China's CO₂ emissions (i.e., scale effect, technique effect, and structure effect). The empirical results indicate that expansion of the natural gas infrastructure can effectively mitigate China's CO₂ emissions; however, this impact is significantly heterogeneous and asymmetric across quantiles. Furthermore, through analyzing the mediation impact mechanism, the natural gas infrastructure can indirectly affect CO₂ emissions in China through the scale effect (i.e., gas population and economic effects) and structure effect (i.e., energy structure effect). Conversely, the technique effect (i.e., energy intensity effect) brought by natural gas infrastructure on CO₂ emissions in China has not been significant so far. Finally, policy implications are highlighted for the Chinese government with respect to reducing CO₂ emissions and promoting growth in the natural gas infrastructure.     

Auditing energy use in cities

`Energy auditing’ as a technique for obtaining a ‘snapshot’ of the energy flows in a city or urban conurbation is discussed in the context of meeting national and international targets for CO₂ emissions abatement. An audit methodology is presented which addresses the key questions: Who needs to be involved in the audit? How should the city or conurbation be divided? What data are required? How might these data be obtained and then analysed? Which are the areas of significant consumption? A basis for setting local targets for reducing future energy consumption and CO₂ emissions is presented. The scope for auditing major cities and conurbations in the United Kingdom is identified with reference to implementing Local Agenda 21 and satisfying CO₂ emissions reduction targets.     

Energy and CO2 emissions performance in China's regional economies: Do market-oriented reforms matter?

This paper employs a newly developed non-radial directional distance function to evaluate China's regional energy and CO₂ emission performance for the period 1997–2009. Moreover, we analyze the impact of China's market-oriented reform on China's regional energy and carbon efficiency. The main findings are as follows. First, most of China's regions did not perform efficiently in energy use and CO₂ emissions. Provinces in the east area generally performed better than those in the central and west areas. By contrast, provinces in the west area generally evidenced the lowest efficiency. Second, Market-oriented reforms, especially the promotion of factor market, were found to have positive effect on the efficiency of energy use and CO₂ emissions. Third, the share of coal in the total energy consumption and the expansion of the industrial sector were found to be negatively correlated with China's regional energy and CO₂ emissions performance. Based on the empirical findings, we provide policy suggestions for enhancing energy and carbon efficiency in China.     

China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO₂ emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO₂ emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO₂ emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.     

Firm ownership,China's export related emissions,and the responsibility issue

China's CO₂ emissions and those embodied in its exports have been extensively studied. One often neglected aspect is the prevalence of foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) in China's exports, for which a substantial portion of benefits return to the investing countries. In this paper, we revisit China's export-related CO₂ emission responsibilities by viewing them from a “new”, gross national income perspective. Using a recently developed environmental input–output framework, one which distinguishes firms by ownership and trade mode, we find that China's CO₂ emissions responsibility for each Yuan of national income from FIE exports, is actually higher than that attributable to Chinese owned enterprise (COE) exports. The result has a somewhat surprising implication: it suggests another source of conflict between China's and global interest in reducing CO₂ emissions. From a purely Chinese (as opposed to global) standpoint, a higher share of exports by COEs rather than FIEs is favorable, even though COEs emit more CO₂ when producing each unit of exports. This finding should sound an additional warning to those who still think that global climate change mitigation can be effectively pursued by allocating country-by-country emissions responsibility.     

Urban CO2 emissions in China: Spatial boundary and performance comparison

Different names/concepts and therefore different spatial boundaries for cities in China are responsible for the conflicting and confusing results associated with urban CO₂ emissions accounting. In this study, four types of urban boundaries, i.e., city administrative boundary (UB₁), city district boundary (UB₂), city built-up area (UB₃) and urban proper (UB₄), were identified and defined. Tianjin was subsequently selected as the case city to illustrate the different performances of CO₂ emissions with respect to these four boundaries using a 1-km grid dataset built bottom-up by point-emission sources. Different urban boundaries can induce a difference in CO₂ emissions as large as 654%. UB₁ and UB₂ are not the appropriate proxies for urban boundaries in the analysis of urban CO₂ emissions, although UB₁ is a widely adopted boundary. UB₃ is a good representative of city clusters and urban sprawl in a certain region, whereas UB₄ is the appropriate system boundary for such issues as urban CO₂ emissions in light of landscape characteristics and pertinent human activities, as well as the comparability to counterparts in developed countries. These results provide sound policy implications for the improvement of urban energy management and carbon emission abatement in China.     

The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change

Within 5 years, China's CO₂ emissions have nearly doubled, and China may already be the world's largest emitter of CO₂. Evidence suggests that exports could be a main cause for the rise in Chinese CO₂ emissions; however, no systematic study has analyzed this issue, especially over time. We find that in 2005, around one-third of Chinese emissions (1700 Mt CO₂) were due to production of exports, and this proportion has risen from 12% (230 Mt) in 1987 and only 21% (760 Mt) as recently as 2002. It is likely that consumption in the developed world is driving this trend. A majority of these emissions have largely escaped the scrutiny of arguments over “carbon leakage” due to the current, narrow definition of leakage. Climate policies which would make the developed world responsible for China's export emissions have both benefits and costs, and must be carefully designed to achieve political consensus and equity. Whoever is responsible for these emissions, China's rapidly expanding infrastructure and inefficient coal-powered electricity system need urgent attention.     

CO2 emissions,energy consumption and economic growth in China: A panel data analysis

This paper examines the causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and real economic output using panel cointegration and panel vector error correction modeling techniques based on the panel data for 28 provinces in China over the period 1995–2007. Our empirical results show that CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and economic growth have appeared to be cointegrated. Moreover, there exists bidirectional causality between CO₂ emissions and energy consumption, and also between energy consumption and economic growth. It has also been found that energy consumption and economic growth are the long-run causes for CO₂ emissions and CO₂ emissions and economic growth are the long-run causes for energy consumption. The results indicate that China's CO₂ emissions will not decrease in a long period of time and reducing CO₂ emissions may handicap China's economic growth to some degree. Some policy implications of the empirical results have finally been proposed.     

City density and CO2 efficiency

Cities play a vital role in the global climate change mitigation agenda. City population density is one of the key factors that influence urban energy consumption and the subsequent GHG emissions. However, previous research on the relationship between population density and GHG emissions led to contradictory results due to urban/rural definition conundrum and the varying methodologies for estimating GHG emissions. This work addresses these ambiguities by employing the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA) and utilizing the gridded CO₂ emissions data. Our results, derived from the analysis of all inhabited areas in the US, show a sub-linear relationship between population density and the total emissions (i.e. the sum of on-road and building emissions) on a per capita basis. Accordingly, we find that doubling the population density would entail a reduction in the total CO₂ emissions in buildings and on-road sectors typically by at least 42%. Moreover, we find that population density exerts a higher influence on on-road emissions than buildings emissions. From an energy consumption point of view, our results suggest that on-going urban sprawl will lead to an increase in on-road energy consumption in cities and therefore stresses the importance of developing adequate local policy measures to limit urban sprawl.     

Methane emissions by Chinese economy: Inventory and embodiment analysis

Concrete inventories for methane emissions and associated embodied emissions in production, consumption, and international trade are presented in this paper for the mainland Chinese economy in 2007 with most recent availability of relevant environmental resources statistics and the input–output table. The total CH₄ emission by Chinese economy 2007 estimated as 39,592.70 Gg is equivalent to three quarters of China's CO₂ emission from fuel combustion by the global thermodynamic potentials, and even by the commonly referred lower IPCC global warming potentials is equivalent to one sixth of China's CO₂ emission from fuel combustion and greater than the CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion of many economically developed countries such as UK, Canada, and Germany. Agricultural activities and coal mining are the dominant direct emission sources, and the sector of Construction holds the top embodied emissions in both production and consumption. The emission embodied in gross capital formation is more than those in other components of final demand characterized by extensive investment and limited consumption. China is a net exporter of embodied CH₄ emissions with the emission embodied in exports of 14,021.80 Gg, in magnitude up to 35.42% of the total direct emission. China's exports of textile products, industrial raw materials, and primary machinery and equipment products have a significant impact on its net embodied emissions of international trade balance. Corresponding policy measures such as agricultural carbon-reduction strategies, coalbed methane recovery, export-oriented and low value added industry adjustment, and low carbon energy polices to methane emission mitigation are addressed.     

Good subsidies or bad subsidies? Evidence from low-carbon transition in China's metallurgical industry

Since the metallurgical industry has become the main source of China's carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in recent years, low-carbon transition in that industry is of great significance for achieving China's carbon reduction targets. It is generally believed that phasing out fossil fuel subsidies is an effective way to reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions since it can increase the energy prices and lower its consumption. This paper aims to investigate whether the energy subsidy removal can promote the low-carbon transition of China's metallurgical industry. Taking inter-fuel and inter-factor substitution effects as the link, we calculate the CO₂ mitigation potential on the assumption that the subsidies for each category of fossil energy were eliminated. We find that the metallurgical industry has a sluggish reaction to the changes in energy price. Supposing eliminating the energy subsidies in the period of 2003–2015, the amount of reduced CO₂ would be 487.286 million tons, accounting for a slight proportion of the total emissions in the industry. But it is meaningful for the global CO₂ mitigation since it approximates the whole CO₂ emissions in Norway during the same period. These findings can provide some new insights for the energy subsidy issue and suggest that the additional measures are required to promote the low-carbon transition in China's metallurgical industry rather than just relying on the removal of fossil fuel subsidies.     

Uncovering opportunity of low-carbon city promotion with industrial system innovation: Case study on industrial symbiosis projects in China

There is a dilemma for rapid industrializing China to balance economic growth and low carbonization. Industrial symbiosis (IS) provides a system innovation to utilize the industry to fight climate change and pursue sustainable urban development, while few attentions are paid in literatures. Under this circumstance, this study reviews the low-carbon city practice in China and conducts a case study to calculate the CO₂ emissions reduction potential under promoting IS projects in two cities of China, named Jinan and Liuzhou. With the real national project in Jinan as advanced example, new scenarios related to IS are designed for Liuzhou, including comprehensive energy network, waste plastics recycling, scrap tires recycling and flying ash recycling. The material/waste and energy exchange is quantified in the IS network, as well as the related environmental benefit. The material/energy exchange is over 10 million ton and 20 thousands tce in Jinan's case, and 2.5 million ton and 45 thousand tce in Liuzhou's case. Results highlight that IS could effectively reduce CO₂ emissions. The total reduction potential amounts to 3944.05 thousands tCO₂/year and 2347.88 thousands tCO₂/year in Jinan and Liuzhou. Finally, policy implications on the ever-improvement of industrial symbiosis and China's sustainable urban development are proposed and discussed.     

Identifying the driving forces of national and regional CO2 emissions in China: Based on temporal and spatial decomposition analysis models

This study explores the driving forces of the changes of national and regional CO₂ emissions using temporal decomposition analysis model, and investigates the driving forces of the differences of CO₂ emissions between China's 30 regions and the national average using spatial decomposition analysis model. The changes or the differences in national and regional CO₂ emissions during 2000–2014 are decomposed into nine underlying determinants. Temporal decomposition results show that economic scale effect is the dominant driving force leading to the increases in both national and regional CO₂ emissions, while energy intensity effect is the main contributor to the reduction of CO₂ emissions. Contribution of various variables to CO₂ emissions between eastern region and central region are roughly same. Spatial decomposition results demonstrate that the differences of CO₂ emissions among China's 30 regions are expanding increasingly. Economic scale effect is main driving force responsible for the difference in CO₂ emissions among regions, and energy intensity effect, energy structure effect and industrial structure effect are also important factors which result in the increasing differences in regional CO₂ emissions. In addition, resource-based and less developed regions have greater potential in the reduction of CO₂ emissions. Understanding CO₂ emissions and the driving forces of various regions is critical for developing regional mitigation strategies in China.