Spread of large LNG pools on the sea

A review of the standard model of LNG pool spreading on water, comparing it with the model and experiments on oil pool spread from which the LNG model is extrapolated, raises questions about the validity of the former as applied to spills from marine tankers. These questions arise from the difference in fluid density ratios, in the multi-dimensional flow at the pool edge, in the effects of LNG pool boiling at the LNG–water interface, and in the model and experimental initial conditions compared with the inflow conditions from a marine tanker spill. An alternate supercritical flow model is proposed that avoids these difficulties; it predicts significant increase in the maximum pool radius compared with the standard model and is partially corroborated by tests of LNG pool fires on water. Wind driven ocean wave interaction has little effect on either spread model.     

Keys to modeling LNG spills on water

Although no LNG ship has experienced a loss of containment in over 40 years of shipping, it is important for risk management planning to understand the predicted consequences of a spill. A key parameter in assessing the impact of an LNG spill is the pool size. LNG spills onto water generally result in larger pools than land spills because they are unconfined. Modeling of LNG spills onto water is much more difficult than for land spills because the phenomena are more complex and the experimental basis is more limited.

The most prevalent practice in predicting pool sizes is to treat the release as instantaneous or constant-rate, and to calculate the pool size using an empirical evaporation or burn rate. The evaporation or burn rate is particularly difficult to estimate for LNG spills on water, because the available data are so limited, scattered, and difficult to extrapolate to the large releases of interest.

A more effective modeling of possible spills of LNG onto water calculates, rather than estimating, the evaporation or burn rate. The keys to this approach are to:

• Use rigorous multicomponent physical properties.

• Use a time-varying analysis of spill and evaporation.

• Use a material and energy balance approach.

• Estimate the heat transfer from water to LNG in a way that reflects the turbulence.

These keys are explained and demonstrated by predictions of a model that incorporates these features. The major challenges are describing the effects of the LNG–water turbulence and the heat transfer from the pool fire to the underlying LNG pool. The model includes a fundamentally based framework for these terms, and the current formulation is based on some of the largest tests to-date. The heat transfer coefficient between the water and LNG is obtained by applying a “turbulence factor” to the value from correlations for quiescent film and transition boiling. The turbulence factor is based on two of the largest unignited tests on water to-date. The heat transfer from the fire to the pool is based on the burning rate for the largest pool fire test on land to-date.     

Coupling dynamic blow down and pool evaporation model for LNG

Treating the dynamic effects of accidental discharges of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is important for realistic predictions of pool radius. Two phenomena have important influence on pool spread dynamics, time-varying discharge (blow down) and pool ignition. Time-varying discharge occurs because a punctured LNG tanker or storage tank drains with a decreasing liquid head and decreasing head-space pressure. Pool ignition increases the evaporation rate of a pool and consequently decreases the ultimate pool area. This paper describes an approach to treat these phenomena in a dynamic pool evaporation model.

The pool evaporation model developed here has two separate regimes. Early in the spill, momentum forces dominate and the pool spreads independently of pool evaporation rate and the corresponding heat transfer rate. After the average pool depth drops below a minimum value, momentum forces are largely dissipated and the thin edges of the pool completely evaporate, so pool area is established by the heat transfer rate. The maximum extent of a burning pool is predicted to be significantly less than that of an unignited pool because the duration of the first regime is reduced by higher heat transfer rates. The maximum extent of an LNG pool is predicted to be larger upon accounting for blow down compared with using a constant average discharge rate. However, the maximum pool extent occurs only momentarily before retreating.     

A review of large-scale LNG spills: experiments and modeling

The prediction of the possible hazards associated with the storage and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by ship has motivated a substantial number of experimental and analytical studies. This paper reviews the experimental and analytical work performed to date on large-scale spills of LNG. Specifically, experiments on the dispersion of LNG, as well as experiments of LNG fires from spills on water and land are reviewed. Explosion, pool boiling, and rapid phase transition (RPT) explosion studies are described and discussed, as well as models used to predict dispersion and thermal hazard distances. Although there have been significant advances in understanding the behavior of LNG spills, technical knowledge gaps to improve hazard prediction are identified. Some of these gaps can be addressed with current modeling and testing capabilities. A discussion of the state of knowledge and recommendations to further improve the understanding of the behavior of LNG spills on water is provided.     

An LNG release, transport, and fate model system for marine spills

LNGMAP, a fully integrated, geographic information based modular system, has been developed to predict the fate and transport of marine spills of LNG. The model is organized as a discrete set of linked algorithms that represent the processes (time dependent release rate, spreading, transport on the water surface, evaporation from the water surface, transport and dispersion in the atmosphere, and, if ignited, burning and associated radiated heat fields) affecting LNG once it is released into the environment. A particle-based approach is employed in which discrete masses of LNG released from the source are modeled as individual masses of LNG or spillets. The model is designed to predict the gas mass balance as a function of time and to display the spatial and temporal evolution of the gas (and radiated energy field).

LNGMAP has been validated by comparisons to predictions of models developed by ABS Consulting and Sandia for time dependent point releases from a draining tank, with and without burning. Simulations were in excellent agreement with those performed by ABS Consulting and consistent with Sandia's steady state results.

To illustrate the model predictive capability for realistic emergency scenarios, simulations were performed for a tanker entering Block Island Sound. Three hypothetical cases were studied: the first assumes the vessel continues on course after the spill starts, the second that the vessel stops as soon as practical after the release begins (3 min), and the third that the vessel grounds at the closest site practical. The model shows that the areas of the surface pool and the incident thermal radiation field (with burning) are minimized and dispersed vapor cloud area (without burning) maximized if the vessel continues on course. For this case the surface pool area, with burning, is substantially smaller than for the without burning case because of the higher mass loss rate from the surface pool due to burning. Since the vessel speed substantially exceeds the spill spreading rate, both the thermal radiation fields and surface pool trail the vessel. The relative directions and speeds of the wind and vessel movement govern the orientation of the dispersed plume.

If the vessel stops, the areas of the surface pool and incident radiation field (with burning) are maximized and the dispersed cloud area (without burning) minimized. The longer the delay in stopping the vessel, the smaller the peak values are for the pool area and the size of the thermal radiation field. Once the vessel stops, the spill pool is adjacent to the vessel and moving down current. The thermal radiation field is oriented similarly. These results may be particularly useful in contingency planning for underway vessels.     

In-depth analysis of accidental oil spills from tankers in the context of global spill trends from all sources

This study gives a global overview of accidental oil spills from all sources (> or =700t) for the period 1970-2004, followed by a detailed examination of trends in accidental tanker spills. The present analysis of the number and volume of tanker spills includes temporal and spatial spill trends, aspects of spill size distribution as well as trends of key factors (i.e., flag state, hull type, tanker age, accident cause and sensitivity of location). Results show that the total number and volume of tanker spills have significantly decreased since the 1970s, which is in contrast to increases in maritime transport of oil and to popular perceptions following recent catastrophic events. However, many spills still occur in ecologically sensitive locations because the major maritime transport routes often cross the boundaries of the Large Marine Ecosystems, but the substantially lower total spill volume is an important contribution to potentially reduce overall ecosystem impacts. In summary, the improvements achieved in the past decades have been the result of a set of initiatives and regulations implemented by governments, international organizations and the shipping industry.     

Cost-effectiveness criteria for marine oil spill preventive measures

Oil tanker accidents resulting in large quantities of oil spills and severe pollution have occurred in the past, leading to major public attention and an international focus on finding solutions for minimising the risks related to such events. This paper proposes a novel approach for evaluating measures for prevention and control of marine oil spills, based on considerations of oil spill risk and cost effectiveness. A cost model that incorporates all costs of a shipping accident has been established and oil tanker spill accidents have been further elaborated as a special case of such accidents. Utilising this model, novel implementation criteria, in terms of the Cost of Averting a Tonne of oil Spilt (CATS), for risk control options aiming at mitigating the environmental risk of accidental oil spills, are proposed. The paper presents a review of previous studies on the costs associated with oil spills from shipping, which is a function of many factors such as location of spill, spill amount, type of oil, etc. However, ships are designed for global trade, transporting different oil qualities. Therefore, globally applicable criteria must average over most of these factors, and the spill amount is the remaining factor that will be used to measure cost effectiveness against. A weighted, global average cleanup cost of USD 16,000/tonne of oil spilt has been calculated, considering the distribution of oil tanker traffic densities. Finally, the criteria are compared with some existing regulations for oil spill prevention, response and compensation (OPA 90).     

United states regulations for siting LNG terminals: problems and potential

The regulations being applied to liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal siting in the United States are reviewed. There are no requirements for exclusion zones to protect the public from LNG spills onto water. Serious problems with current practices used to determine exclusion zones on the land-based part of the facility are identified. Many of the questions that are considered relate to the use of computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models, which appear to offer the best potential for realistic modeling to determine vapor cloud exclusion zones that result from LNG spills into impounded areas with or without dispersion in the presence of other obstacles to the wind flow. Failure to use CFD models, which are already approved by the regulation, and continued use of practices which have been demonstrated to be in error, raises important questions of credibility as well as denies the applicant full use of scientific tools that are available to optimize the design of such facilities so as to best provide for safety of the public.     

Model of large pool fires

A two zone entrainment model of pool fires is proposed to depict the fluid flow and flame properties of the fire. Consisting of combustion and plume zones, it provides a consistent scheme for developing non-dimensional scaling parameters for correlating and extrapolating pool fire visible flame length, flame tilt, surface emissive power, and fuel evaporation rate. The model is extended to include grey gas thermal radiation from soot particles in the flame zone, accounting for emission and absorption in both optically thin and thick regions. A model of convective heat transfer from the combustion zone to the liquid fuel pool, and from a water substrate to cryogenic fuel pools spreading on water, provides evaporation rates for both adiabatic and non-adiabatic fires. The model is tested against field measurements of large scale pool fires, principally of LNG, and is generally in agreement with experimental values of all variables.     

Large hydrocarbon fuel pool fires: physical characteristics and thermal emission variations with height

In a recent paper [P.K. Raj, Large LNG fire thermal radiation-modeling issues and hazard criteria revisited, Process Safety Progr., 24 (3) (2005)] it was shown that large, turbulent fires on hydrocarbon liquid pools display several characteristics including, pulsating burning, production of smoke, and reduced thermal radiation, with increasing size. In this paper, a semi-empirical mathematical model is proposed which considers several of these important fire characteristics. Also included in this paper are the experimental results for the variation of the fire radiance from bottom to top of the fire (and their statistical distribution) from the largest land spill LNG pool fire test conducted to date. The purpose of the model described in this paper is to predict the variation of thermal radiation output along the fire plume and to estimate the overall thermal emission from the fire as a function its size taking into consideration the smoke effects. The model utilizes experimentally measured data for different parameters and uses correlations developed from laboratory and field tests with different fuels. The fire dynamics and combustion of the fuel are modeled using known entrainment and combustion efficiency parameter values. The mean emissive power data from field tests are compared with model predictions. Model results for the average emissive powers of large, hypothetical LNG fires are indicated.     

Modeling the release, spreading, and burning of LNG, LPG, and gasoline on water

Current interest in the shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has renewed the debate about the safety of shipping large volumes of flammable fuels. The size of a spreading pool following a release of LNG from an LNG tank ship has been the subject of numerous papers and studies dating back to the mid-1970s. Several papers have presented idealized views of how the LNG would be released and spread across a quiescent water surface. There is a considerable amount of publicly available material describing these idealized releases, but little discussion of how other flammable fuels would behave if released from similar sized ships. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether the models currently available from the United States Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) can be used to simulate the release, spreading, vaporization, and pool fire impacts for materials other than LNG, and if so, identify which material-specific parameters are required.

The review of the basic equations and principles in FERC's LNG release, spreading, and burning models did not reveal a critical fault that would prevent their use in evaluating the consequences of other flammable fluid releases. With the correct physical data, the models can be used with the same level of confidence for materials such as LPG and gasoline as they are for LNG.     

A quantitative risk analysis approach to port hydrocarbon logistics

A method is presented that allows quantitative risk analysis to be performed on marine hydrocarbon terminals sited in ports. A significant gap was identified in the technical literature on QRA for the handling of hazardous materials in harbours published prior to this work. The analysis is extended to tanker navigation through port waters and loading and unloading facilities. The steps of the method are discussed, beginning with data collecting. As to accident scenario identification, an approach is proposed that takes into account minor and massive spills due to loading arm failures and tank rupture. Frequency estimation is thoroughly reviewed and a shortcut approach is proposed for frequency calculation. This allows for the two-fold possibility of a tanker colliding/grounding at/near the berth or while navigating to/from the berth. A number of probability data defining the possibility of a cargo spill after an external impact on a tanker are discussed. As to consequence and vulnerability estimates, a scheme is proposed for the use of ratios between the numbers of fatal victims, injured and evacuated people. Finally, an example application is given, based on a pilot study conducted in the Port of Barcelona, where the method was tested.     

Analysis of large LNG spills on water part 1: Liquid spread and evaporation

The first part of this two-part review considers the theoretical and experimental results obtained on liquid spread and evaporation on large LNG spills on water. Both instantaneous spills, in which the spill time is much smaller than the time for complete vaporization, and continuous spills are considered. Also applications of the correlations are discussed.     

Fire performance of LNG carriers insulated with polystyrene foam

Analysis of the response of a liquid-full Moss Sphere LNG tank insulated with polystyrene foam to an engulfing LNG fire indicates that current regulatory requirements for pressure relief capacity sufficient to prevent tank rupture are inadequate. The inadequacy of the current requirements stems primarily from two factors. Firstly, the area of the Moss Sphere protruding above what would be the nominal deck on a conventional carrier, which is protected only by a steel weather cover from exposure to heat from a tank-engulfing fire, is being underestimated. Secondly, aluminum foil-covered polystyrene foam insulation applied to the exterior of the LNG tank is protected above the deck only by the steel weather cover under which the insulation could begin to melt in as little as 1-3min, and could completely liquefy in as few as 10min. U.S. and International Regulations require that the insulations on the above-deck portion of tanks have approved fire proofing and stability under fire exposure. Polystyrene foam, as currently installed on LNG carriers, does not appear to meet these criteria. As a result of these findings, but giving no consideration to the significant potential for further damage if the polystyrene should burn, the boil-off rate is predicted to be an order-of-magnitude higher than provided for by current PRV sizing requirements.     

LNG fires: a review of experimental results, models and hazard prediction challenges

A number of experimental investigations of LNG fires (of sizes 35 m diameter and smaller) were undertaken, world wide, during the 1970s and 1980s to study their physical and radiative characteristics. This paper reviews the published data from several of these tests including from the largest test to date, the 35 m, Montoir tests.

Also reviewed in this paper is the state of the art in modeling LNG pool and vapor fires, including thermal radiation hazard modeling. The review is limited to considering the integral and semi-empirical models (solid flame and point source); CFD models are not reviewed. Several aspects of modeling LNG fires are reviewed including, the physical characteristics, such as the (visible) fire size and shape, tilt and drag in windy conditions, smoke production, radiant thermal output, etc., and the consideration of experimental data in the models. Comparisons of model results with experimental data are indicated and current deficiencies in modeling are discussed.

The requirements in the US and European regulations related to LNG fire hazard assessment are reviewed, in brief, in the light of model inaccuracies, criteria for hazards to people and structures, and the effects of mitigating circumstances. The paper identifies: (i) critical parameters for which there exist no data, (ii) uncertainties and unknowns in modeling and (iii) deficiencies and gaps in current regulatory recipes for predicting hazards.     

Application of CFD (Fluent) to LNG spills into geometrically complex environments

Recent discussions on the fate of LNG spills into impoundments have suggested that the commonly used combination of SOURCE5 and DEGADIS to predict the flammable vapor dispersion distances is not accurate, as it does not account for vapor entrainment by wind. SOURCE5 assumes the vapor layer to grow upward uniformly in the form of a quiescent saturated gas cloud that ultimately spills over impoundment walls. The rate of spillage is then used as the source term for DEGADIS. A more rigorous approach to predict the flammable vapor dispersion distance is to use a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. CFD codes can take into account the physical phenomena that govern the fate of LNG spills into impoundments, such as the mixing between air and the evaporated gas. Before a CFD code can be proposed as an alternate method for the prediction of flammable vapor cloud distances, it has to be validated with proper experimental data. This paper describes the use of Fluent, a widely-used commercial CFD code, to simulate one of the tests in the "Falcon" series of LNG spill tests. The "Falcon" test series was the only series that specifically addressed the effects of impoundment walls and construction obstructions on the behavior and dispersion of the vapor cloud. Most other tests, such as the Coyote and the Burro series, involved spills onto water and relatively flat ground. The paper discusses the critical parameters necessary for a CFD model to accurately predict the behavior of a cryogenic spill in a geometrically complex domain, and presents comparisons between the gas concentrations measured during the Falcon-1 test and those predicted using Fluent. Finally, the paper discusses the effect vapor barriers have in containing part of the spill thereby shortening the ignitable vapor cloud and therefore the required hazard area. This issue was addressed by comparing the Falcon-1 simulation (spill into the impoundment) with the simulation of an identical spill without any impoundment walls, or obstacles within the impoundment area.     

Dispersion hazard from spills of LNG on land and on water

Previously published data on the dispersion of vapours from LNG spills on both land and water are correlated using common dispersion relationships     

The 1973 marine pollution convention's impact on ships transporting hazardous materials

In October 1973, 70 nations met under the auspices of the Inter-Governmental Maritime Consultative Organization (IMCO) and adopted the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, 1973. This new Convention will regulate discharges of oil, noxious chemicals, sewage, and garbage into the sea. The Convention also includes control provisions for ensuring that vessels comply with its provisions.The transportation of chemicals in bulk impacts or threatens the marine environment in two ways: first, through the intentional discharge of tank washings; and second, through the accidental discharge of cargo following a casualty. Prior to the 1973 Convention there were no internationally accepted regulations controlling the intentional discharge; IMCO had, however, begun addressing the problem of minimizing accidental pollution by developing a recommended Code for the Construction and Equipment of Ships Carrying Dangerous Chemicals in Bulk, (IMCO Resolution A. 212 (VII)). Annex II of the new Convention provides the international controls for limiting intentional discharges and requires that Contracting States implement the Code. Taken together these provisions substantially fulfill the objective of the 1973 Conference, i.e., “? the achievement by 1975 if possible, but certainly by the end of the decade, the complete elimination of the willful and intentional pollution of the seas by oil and noxious substances other than oil, and the minimization of accidental spills ?” (IMCO Assembly Resolution A. 237 (VII)).