改进人工蜂群算法优化RBF神经网络的短时交通流预测

为了提高径向基函数RBF神经网络预测模型对短时交通流的预测准确性,提出了一种基于改进人工蜂群算法优化RBF神经网络的短时交通流预测模型。利用改进人工蜂群算法确定RBF网络隐含层的中心值以及隐含层单元数,然后训练改进的人工蜂群算法RBF神经网络预测模型,并将其应用到某城市4天的短时交通流量数据的验证。将实验结果与传统RBF神经网络预测模型、BP神经网络预测模型和小波神经网络预测模型进行了比较。对比结果表明,该方法对短时交通流具有更高的预测准确性。     

交通流量VNNTF神经网络模型多步预测研究

研究了VNNTF 神经网络（Volterra neural network trafficflow model,VNNTF） 交通流量混沌时间序列多步预测问题. 通过分析比较交通流量混沌时间序列相空间重构的嵌入维数和Volterra 离散模型之间的关系,给出了确定交通流量Volterra 级数模型截断阶数和截断项数的方法,并在此基础上建立了VNNTF 神经网络交通流量时间序列模型;设计了交通流量Volterra 神经网络的快速学习算法;最后,利用交通流量混沌时间序列对VNNTF 网络模型,Volterra 预测滤波器和BP 网络进行了多步预测实验,比较了多步预测结果的仿真图、绝对误差的柱状图以及归一化后的方均根;实验结果表明VNNTF 神经网络的多步预测性能明显优于Volterra 预测滤波器和BP 神经网络.     

径向基函数（RBF）神经网络的一种极大熵学习算法

RBF神经网络中心向量的确定是整个网络学习的关键,该文基于信息论中的极大熵原理构造了训练中心向量的极大熵聚类算法,由此给出了网络的极大熵学习算法。文中最后分别用一个时间序列预测和系统辨识问题验证了该学习算法的有效性,同RBF网络和多层感知机的误差回传算法相比,该算法不仅在学习精度和泛化推广能力上有一定程度的提高,而且学习时间有显著的降低。     

Neural network and neuro-fuzzy assessments for scour depth around bridge piers

The mechanism of flow around a pier structure is so complicated that it is difficult to establish a general empirical model to provide accurate estimation for scour. Interestingly, each of the proposed empirical formula yields good results for a particular data set. Hence, in this study, alternative approaches, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), are proposed to estimate the equilibrium and time-dependent scour depth with numerous reliable data base. Two ANN models, multi-layer perception using back-propagation algorithm (MLP/BP) and radial basis using orthogonal least-squares algorithm (RBF/OLS), were used. The equilibrium scour depth was modeled as a function of five variables; flow depth, mean velocity, critical flow velocity, mean grain diameter and pier diameter. The time variation of scour depth was also modeled in terms of equilibrium scour depth, equilibrium scour time, scour time, mean flow velocity and critical flow velocity. The training and testing data are selected from the experimental data of several valuable references. Numerical tests indicate that MLP/BP model provide a better prediction of scour depth than RBF/OLS and ANFIS models as well as the previous empirical approaches. Finally, sensitivity analysis shows that pier diameter has a greater influence on equilibrium scour depth than the other independent parameters.     

基于RBF神经网络的时间序列预测

前馈神经网络在时间序列预测中的应用已得到充分地认可,一些模型已经提出,例如多层感知器(MLP),误差反向传播(BP)和径向基函数(RBF)网络等等。相对于其他前馈神经网络,RBF网络学习速度快,函数逼近能力强,因而在时间序列预测方面具有很好的应用前景。     

Hybrid multilayered perceptron networks

This paper introduces a modified multilayered perception network (MLP) called the Hybrid Multilayered Perceptron (HMLP) network to improve the performance of a MLP network. The convergence rate of the proposed network is further improved by proposing a modified version of the recursive prediction error algorithm as the training algorithm. The capability of the proposed network architecture trained using the modified recursive prediction error algorithm was demonstrated using simulated and real data sets. The results indicated that the proposed network provides a significant improvement over a standard MLP network. These additional linear input connections do not significantly increase the complexity of the MLP network since the connections are linear. In fact, by using the linear input connections, the number of hidden nodes required by the standard MLP network model can be reduced, which will also reduce computational load. The performance of the HMLP network was also compared with Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Hybrid Radial Basis Function (HRBF) networks. It was found that the proposed HMLP network was much more efficient than both RBF and HRBF networks.     

基于时间图注意力的交通流量预测模型

交通状况预测是智能交通系统的一个重要组成部分,而车流量是交通状况最直接的体现,因而对交通流量进行预测具有重要的应用价值。一方面,城市中的道路本身带有空间拓扑性质,另一方面车流量随时间动态变化。因此交通流量预测问题的关键在于对数据中存在的时间和空间依赖进行建模。针对这一特性,使用神经网络模型和注意力机制来探索交通流量数据中的时空依赖关系,提出基于时间图注意力的交通流量预测模型。空间依赖方面,使用图卷积网络与注意力结合的学习算法对不同影响程度节点分配不同的权重,加入节点自适应学习,有效提取空间特征;时间依赖方面,使用时序卷积网络对时间特征进行提取,通过扩张卷积扩大感受域从而捕获较长时间序列数据的特征。由图注意力网络和时间卷积网络构成一个时空网络层,最终连接到输出层输出预测结果。该模型使用图卷积神经网络和注意力机制结合的方式提取空间特征,充分考虑了道路间的空间关系,利用时序卷积网络捕获时间特征。在两个真实的数据集上进行实验后发现,在未来15 min、30 min、60 min的时间段内该模型都有良好表现,结果优于现有基准模型。     

Performance evaluation of multilayer perceptron,radial basis function,fuzzy inference system,and an adaptively tuned fuzzy wavelet neural network in parameter prediction of multiphase flow measurement instrumentation

Application of predictive models in industrial multiphase flow metering has attracted an increasing attention recently. Void fraction (VF), water–liquid ratio (WLR), and flow regime are key parameters, measured by oil/water/gas multiphase flow metres (MPFM) in petroleum industry. Artificial neural networks and fuzzy inference systems (FIS) are reliable and efficient computational models, which can be simply implemented on microprocessors of MPFMs, having the advantages of trainability, adaptability, and capability to model non‐linear functions. In this paper, a wavelet‐based adaptive neuro‐FIS (WANFIS) is introduced and validated by the prediction of multiphase flow measurement critical parameters including flow regime, VF, and WLR. The performance of the proposed WANFIS model is then compared with multilayer perceptron (MLP), radial basis function (RBF) network, and an FIS trained by fuzzy c‐means and a subtractive clustering method in the prediction of flow parameters in a customized designed structure of oil/water/gas MPFM. Structural parameters of all predictive models are first optimized to yield the most efficient structure for the available dataset. Comparison is then made between the optimized predictive models, in terms of mean squared error of parameter prediction, computation time, and repeatability of the prediction process. According to the obtained results, MLP model using Levenberg–Marquardt training algorithm and WANFIS model using gradient‐based back propagation dynamical iterative learning algorithm are the most efficient models, which give the best performance compared with other used models. All predictive models can predict the flow regime with 100% accuracy, whereas the highest inaccuracy is related to the prediction of WLR. The results of this study can be used to select and develop the most appropriate predictive model applicable in predicting and identifying flow measurement parameters in industrial MPFMs.     

Handwritten characters recognition based on nature-inspired computing and neuro-evolution

The enormous services obtainable by bank and postal systems are not 100 % guaranteed due to variability of handwriting styles. Various methods based on neural networks have been suggested to address this issue. Unfortunately, they often fall into local optima that arises from the use of old learning methods. Global optimization methods provided new directions for neural networks evolution that may be useful in recognition. This paper develops efficient algorithms that compute globally optimal solutions by exploiting the benefits of both swarm intelligence and neuro-evolution in a way to improve the overall performance of a character recognition system. Various adaptations implied to both MLP and RBF networks have been suggested namely: particle swarm optimization (PSO) and the bees algorithm (BA) for characters classification, MLP training or RBF design by co-evolution and effective combinations of MLPs, RBFs or SVMs as an attempt to overcome the drawbacks of old recognition methods. Results proved that networks combination proposals ensure the highest improvement compared to either standard MLP and RBF networks, the co-evolutionary alternatives or other classifiers combination based on common combination rules namely majority voting, the fusion rules of min, max, sum, average, product and Bayes, Decision template and the Behavior Knowledge Space (BKS).     

基于云遗传的RBF神经网络的交通流量预测

以神经网络和混沌时间序列理论为基础,提出了一种基于云遗传的RBF神经网络优化算法。该算法利用云模型云滴的随机性和稳定倾向性的特点,由正态云模型的Y条件云发生器实现交叉操作,由基本云发生器实现变异操作,提高了遗传搜索的效率,精简了网络结构。将该算法应用到Logistic混沌时间序列和实测交通流时间序列进行算法的有效性验证,并与传统的RBF算法和遗传算法优化的RBF算法（GARBF）进行比较。仿真结果表明该算法对混沌时间序列和交通流预测的精度有较大提高,从而证明该算法在交通流时间序列预测领域的可行性和有效性。     

基于栈式自编码的上海地铁短时流量预测

城市公共交通网每时每刻都承载巨大的客流量,客流量的增多为公共交通网和交通智能调度带来了巨大的压力。地铁站点短时的客流预测是智能地铁调度系统中重要的决策基础与技术支持。利用历史刷卡数据,提出了一种基于深度学习的地铁短时客流量预测方法,基于栈式自编码器构建深度神经网络模型,采用自下而上逐层非监督预训练,在预训练结束之后,采用反向传播BP算法自上而下来微调整个网络的参数。利用上海一个月范围内的地铁刷卡记录数据进行实验测试,实验结果优于小波神经网络Wavelet NN与自回归移动平均模型ARIMA。     

一种基于小波和神经网络的短时交通流量预测

针对实际交通流变化的不稳定性和复杂性的特点,应用交通流预测模型获取更准确的交通流信息,是智能交通领域的一个研究热点。提出一种基于小波分析与神经网络结合的预测模型。模型主要思想是通过小波多分辨率分析和Mallat算法对原始交通流数据进行平滑降噪处理,处理过程选用db10小波和软阈值去噪函数使得交通流曲线更加平滑稳定,更能真实反映交通流的真实情况;再采用激活函数为Tan-Sigmoid,训练函数为trainlm,各层神经元节点数为1-12-1的三层BP神经网络对消噪后的交通流数据进行训练,用训练好的预测模型对实际交通流信息进行预测,最后获取准确的交通流信息。实验结果表明,采用小波分析与BP神经网络结合的方法得到的预测结果平均相对误差为0.03%,最大相对误差为0.39,拟合度(EC)达到0.96。仅使用BP神经网络预测模型对交通流数据进行预测后得到的预测结果的平均相对误差为0.08%,最大相对误差为0.89%;实验对比采用BP神经网络预测模型和卡尔曼滤波、GM(1,1)预测模型对交通流的预测,BP神经网络预测模型的误差指标大大减小,拟合度大大提高,有较好的准确性和可行性,能较准确地反映交通流真实情况。而经过小波去噪与BP神经网络结合的预测模型提高了预测精度,为交通流的实时动态预警提供了更加准确真实的情况。     

量子遗传算法优化BP神经网络的网络流量预测

为了提高网络流量的预测精度,提出了一种改进的多种群量子遗传算法优化BP神经网络的网络流量预测模型。在确定了神经网络的结构后,采用多种群量子遗传算法对BP神经网络的初始权值和阈值进行优化。该模型利用K均值聚类算法将种群划分成若干子种群,多个子种群分别进化以保持种群的多样性。子种群间通过移民操作进行信息交互,减小了算法陷入局部最优的概率。同时采用一种自适应的量子旋转门调整策略加快算法的收敛速度。仿真结果表明,相较传统方法,该模型在网络流量预测方面具有收敛速度快、预测精度高的优点。     

基于小波模糊神经网络的实时交通流预测

实时交通流预测是智能运输系统研究的重要内容之一.本文将小波分析的相关知识与模糊神经网络相结合,给出了基于小波模糊神经网络的交通流预测模型,采用小波函数作为模糊隶属度函数,用神经网络来实现模糊推理,完成对下一个周期性交通流的估计.同时,用遗传算法来优化整个网络,实测数据验证这种方法预测精度高,收敛过程平稳,适应性强.     

基于小波神经网络的电梯交通流预测

小波神经网络随着输入维数的增加,网络参数将呈指数倍增加,导致收敛速度下降.在研究统计学理论的基础上,提出了以结构风险最小化为目标的训练方法.该方法最大限度地保证了网络的泛化能力.将该网络应用于电梯交通流的预测,得到了比传统BP神经网络更优的效果.     

基于径向基函数神经网络的混沌背景谐波提取

为提高强混沌背景下谐波信号的提取能力,给出混沌系统的单步预测模型,提出了一种新的径向基函数神经网络模型.由混沌吸引子的维数来确定网络的输入,并给出了基于卡尔曼滤波器的动态学习算法,利用学习算法可以在网络训练时同时确定径向基神经网络隐层中心和输出层权值,提高了网络的收敛速度和预测性能.通过对Bossler混沌背景下低信噪比谐波信号的提取进行计算机认真实验,并且实验表明信噪比最低达一27dB时,仍能有效提取出谐波信号,验证了算法的有效性和可行性.     

一种基于优化的RBF神经网络交通流预测新算法

提出了一种基于遗传算法优化的RBF神经网络交通流预测新方法,该方法把遗传算法应用于RBF神经网络的参数确定中,实现了RBF神经网络隐层高斯函数的中心矢量和基宽向量以及隐层与输出层之间的权值的优化,提高了RBF神经网络的泛化能力。仿真结果表明：改进的RBF网络用于交通流预测中具有可靠的精度和较好的收敛速度,具有广阔的应用推广前景。     

Adaptive Decentralized NN Control of Nonlinear Interconnected Time‐Delay Systems with Input Saturation

In this paper, a novel decentralized adaptive neural control scheme is proposed for a class of interconnected large‐scale uncertain nonlinear time‐delay systems with input saturation. Radial basis function (RBF) neural networks (NNs) are used to tackle unknown nonlinear functions. Then, the decentralized adaptive NN tracking controller is constructed by combining Lyapunov–Krasovskii functions and the dynamic surface control (DSC) technique, along with the minimal‐learning‐parameters (MLP) algorithm. The stability analysis subject to the effect of input saturation constraints are conducted with the help of an auxiliary design system based on the Lyapunov–Krasovskii method. The proposed controller guarantees uniform ultimate boundedness (UUB) of all of the signals in the closed‐loop large‐scale system, while the tracking errors converge to a small neighborhood around the origin. An advantage of the proposed control scheme lies in the number of adaptive parameters of the whole system being reduced to one and in the solution of the three problems of “computational explosion,” “dimension curse,” and “controller singularity”. Finally, simulation results along with comparisons are presented to demonstrate the advantages, effectiveness, and performance of the proposed scheme.     

Short-term traffic flow forecasting: parametric and nonparametric approaches via emotional temporal difference learning

Information signal from real case and natural complex dynamical systems such as traffic flow are usually specified by irregular motions. Chaotic nonlinear dynamics approach is now the most powerful tool for scientists to deal with complexities in real cases, and neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models are widely used for their capabilities in nonlinear modeling of chaotic systems more than the traditional methods. As mentioned, the traffic flow conditions caused the forecasting values of traffic flow to lack robustness and accuracy. In this paper, the traffic flow forecasting is analyzed with emotional concepts and multi-agent systems (MASs) points of view as a new method in this field. The findings enabled the researchers to develop a newly object-oriented method of forecasting traffic flow. Its architecture is based on a temporal difference (TD) Q-learning with a neuro-fuzzy structure, which is the nonparametric approach. The performance of TD Q-learning is improved by emotional learning. The proposed method on the present conditions and the action of the system according to the criteria could forecast traffic signals so that the objectives are reached in minimum time. The ability of presented learning algorithm to prospect gains from future actions and obtain rewards from its past experiences allows emotional TD Q-learning algorithm to improve its decisions for the best possible actions. In addition, to study in a more practical situation, the neuro-fuzzy behaviors could be modeled by MAS. The proposed method (intelligent/nonparametric approach) is compared by parametric approach, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method, which is implemented by multi-layer perceptron neural networks and called ARIMANN. Here, the ARIMANN is updated by backpropagation and temporal difference backpropagation for the first time. The simulation results revealed that the studied forecaster could discover the optimal forecasting by means of the Q-learning algorithm. Difficult to handle through parametric and classic methods, the real traffic flow signals used for fitting the algorithms is obtained from a two-lane street I-494 in Minnesota City.     

Identification and control of dynamical systems using the self-organizing map.

In this paper, we introduce a general modeling technique, called vector-quantized temporal associative memory (VQTAM), which uses Kohonen's self-organizing map (SOM) as an alternative to multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) neural models for dynamical system identification and control. We demonstrate that the estimation errors decrease as the SOM training proceeds, allowing the VQTAM scheme to be understood as a self-supervised gradient-based error reduction method. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated on a variety of complex tasks, namely: i) time series prediction; ii) identification of SISO/MIMO systems; and iii) nonlinear predictive control. For all tasks, the simulation results produced by the SOM are as accurate as those produced by the MLP network, and better than those produced by the RBF network. The SOM has also shown to be less sensitive to weight initialization than MLP networks. We conclude the paper by discussing the main properties of the VQTAM and their relationships to other well established methods for dynamical system identification. We also suggest directions for further work.