Speed cameras in Sweden and Victoria, Australia—A case study

In this article, the ideas behind two different speed camera systems in Australia, Victoria, and Sweden are explored and compared. The study shows that even if the both systems technically have the same aim – to reduce speeding – the ideas of how that should be achieved differ substantially. The approach adopted in Victoria is based on the concept that speeding is a deliberate offence in which a rational individual wants to drive as fast as possible and is prepared to calculate the costs and benefits of his behaviour. Therefore, the underlying aim of the intervention is to increase the perceived cost of committing an offence whilst at the same time decrease the perceived benefits, so that the former outweigh the latter. The Swedish approach, on the other hand, appears to be based on a belief that road safety is an important priority for the road users and one of the reasons to why road users drive too fast is lack of information and social support.In order to evaluate road safety interventions and how their effects are created together with the ambition to transfer technology, there is a need for a comprehensive understanding of the systems and their modi operandi in their specific contexts. This study has shown that there are major differences between the ideas behind the two speed camera programs in Victoria, Australia and Sweden and that these ideas have an impact on the actual design of the different systems and how these are intended to create road safety effects.     

How would setting policy priorities according to cost-benefit analyses affect the provision of road safety?

This paper analyses how setting priorities for road safety strictly according to cost-benefit analysis would affect the provision of road safety in Norway and Sweden. The paper is based on recent analyses of the efficiency of road safety policies in these two countries. The argument sometimes made by critics of cost-benefit analysis, that only a few road safety measures are cost-effective (have benefits greater than costs), is not supported. Cost-effective road safety policies could prevent between 50 and 60% of the current number of road accident fatalities in both Norway and Sweden, if pursued consistently during a period of 10 years (2002-2011). If current policies are continued, only about 10-15% of the current number of road accident fatalities are likely to be prevented during the next 10 years. A number of sources of inefficiency in road safety policy are identified. A source of inefficiency is anything that prevents policy priorities from being set according to cost-benefit analysis. These include: (a) lack of power, which means that national governments do not have the formal authority to introduce a certain road safety measure, in Europe, this applies to new vehicle safety standards, which are passed almost exclusively by the European Union; (b) the existence of social dilemmas, which means that measures that are cost-effective from a societal point of view are not so from the point of view of individual road users; (c) priority given to other policy objectives, in particular regional development. Scarcity of resources, which obtains when public budgets have to be increased to make room for all cost-effective measures, was not found to be a constraint. All cost-effective measures can be funded within current budgets, provided the use of inefficient measures ceases.     

The importance of the time factor in fire and rescue service operations in Sweden

The aim of the paper is to measure the benefits and costs for the society if the fire and rescue service is delayed by 5 and 10 min respectively. A 5 min longer turn-out time is often the difference between a full-time and a voluntary crew. A 10 min difference may represent what happens if a voluntary crew on the outskirts of the municipality is closed down and their services are taken over by the centrally located full-time staff. In Sweden a full-time staff costs USD 180,000 more per year and man on duty. When it comes to the costs of a longer turn-out time three items dominates: fires in buildings; road transport accidents; and drowning cases. These three account for 38% of the alarms but 97% of the damage increase if the rescue operation is delayed, whether it is for 5 or 10 min. For all these three items we have carried out calculations based on our own empirical material. To be allowed to fight fires using breathing apparatus Swedish legislation requires a minimum crew of five. For a municipality in Sweden with the average number and distribution of alarms a full time crew of five is not economically justifiable until it reaches a population of 30,000.     

Bicycle helmet legislation: can we reach a consensus?

Debate continues over bicycle helmet laws. Proponents argue that case-control studies of voluntary wearing show helmets reduce head injuries. Opponents argue, even when legislation substantially increased percent helmet wearing, there was no obvious response in percentages of cyclist hospital admissions with head injury-trends for cyclists were virtually identical to those of other road users. Moreover, enforced laws discourage cycling, increasing the costs to society of obesity and lack of exercise and reducing overall safety of cycling through reduced safety in numbers. Countries with low helmet wearing have more cyclists and lower fatality rates per kilometre. Cost-benefit analyses are a useful tool to determine if interventions are worthwhile. The two published cost-benefit analyses of helmet law data found that the cost of buying helmets to satisfy legislation probably exceeded any savings in reduced head injuries. Analyses of other road safety measures, e.g. reducing speeding and drink-driving or treating accident blackspots, often show that benefits are significantly greater than costs. Assuming all parties agree that helmet laws should not be implemented unless benefits exceed costs, agreement is needed on how to derive monetary values for the consequences of helmet laws, including changes in injury rates, cycle-use and enjoyment of cycling. Suggestions are made concerning the data and methodology needed to help clarify the issue, e.g. relating pre- and post-law surveys of cycle use to numbers with head and other injuries and ensuring that trends are not confused with effects of increased helmet wearing.     

Safety Performance Indicator for alcohol in road accidents—International comparison, validity and data quality

Safety Performance Indicators, SPIs, are developed for various areas within road safety such as speed, car occupant protection, alcohol and drugs, vehicle safety, etc. SPIs can be used to indicate the road safety situation and to compare road safety performance between countries and over time and to understand the process leading to accidents, helping to select the measures to reduce them. This article describes an alcohol SPI defined as the percentage of fatalities resulting from accidents involving at least one driver impaired by alcohol. The calculation of the alcohol SPI for 26 European countries shows that the SPI varies from 4.4% in Bulgaria to 72.2% in Italy. These results raise the question if the results reflect the real situation or if there is a methodological explanation. To answer this question three different studies were carried out: comparison with other alcohol SPIs, in-depth studies of data quality in seven selected countries, and a study of correlations between the SPI and influencing factors.These studies indicate clearly that there is a need to improve quality of the data used for the alcohol SPI. Most importantly, the total number of drivers involved in fatal accidents, the number tested for alcohol and the number not tested, should be reported, in addition to the number of alcohol positive and negative drivers among those tested. Until these improvements are made, the validity of this SPI seems poor and comparison of the alcohol SPI results across countries should be made with caution.     

Estimation of the social costs of home injury: a comparison with estimates for road injury

Home injury is thought to constitute a major health burden in most developed countries. However, efforts to address this burden have been hampered by reluctance from outside agencies to interfere with the home environment of individuals, even if it benefits the occupant's safety. This paper outlines cost–benefit evaluation methods established in the transport safety domain applied to home safety to estimate the social cost of unintentional home injury in New Zealand. Estimates of costs imposed on society by home injury can provide an important motivator for initiating research and programmes to reduce home injury risk. Data sources used included mortality data, hospitalisation data and data on minor injuries that required medical treatment, but not hospital admission. We estimated that unintentional home injuries in New Zealand impose an annual social cost of about $NZ 13 billion (about $US 9 billion), which is about 3.5 times the annual social cost of road injury. These estimates provide a rational evidence base for decisions on housing-focused safety regulation or interventions that always carry some cost, and therefore need to be weighed against the benefits of injuries potentially prevented.     

Sources of uncertainty in estimated benefits of road safety programmes

National road safety programmes have been developed in many motorised countries. Some of these programmes contain estimates of the safety benefits that were expected to be realised if the programmes were fully implemented. When these estimates are compared to actual outcomes, it is not uncommon to find large differences. This paper argues that differences between the predicted and actual results of road safety programmes could be the result of a large, but generally unrecognised, uncertainty inherent in estimates of the effects of such programmes. Ten sources of uncertainty are identified and briefly described. The possibility of describing these sources of uncertainty numerically, and of estimating their joint contribution, is discussed. It is concluded that at the current state of knowledge, it is not possible to meaningfully estimate the total uncertainty inherent in road safety programmes. The prospects of reducing uncertainty by means of research are discussed.     

An exploratory analysis of models for estimating the combined effects of road safety measures

Road safety programmes consisting of a large number of road safety measures have been developed in many countries. To estimate the effects of such programmes on the number of accidents, models for estimating the combined effects of road safety measures are needed. This paper presents an exploratory analysis of such models. There is very little empirical evidence to support model building. Based on a few studies that have evaluated the effects of multiple road safety measures introduced at the same locations, the paper compares two models. One of the models, the common residuals model, assumes that the (percentage) effect of a road safety measure remains unchanged when it is combined with other road safety measures. The other model, the dominant common residuals model, assumes that the most effective measure in a set of measures has a dominant effect that weakens the effects of other road safety measures it is combined with. Evidence from the few studies that were found is consistent with both these models. A study of the effects of a road safety programme implemented in Victoria, Australia between 1990 and 1996 indicated that the effects of safety measures are weakened when these measures are combined with other road safety measures.     

Effects on road safety of new urban arterial roads

This paper presents an evaluation of the effects on road safety of new urban arterial roads in Oslo, Norway, and a synthesis of evidence from similar studies that have evaluated the safety effects of new urban arterial roads in other cities. A before-and-after study was made of four urban arterial road projects in Oslo. The study controlled for general accident trends in Oslo and for regression-to-the-mean. A statistically non-significant reduction of 9% in the number of injury accidents was found for all four projects combined. The effects on safety of new urban arterial roads were found to vary, depending on whether a new arterial road was built, or an existing arterial road upgraded by means of lane additions and reconstruction of junctions to interchanges. New arterial roads tend to induce more traffic, which tends to offset the benefits of a lower accident rate on the new roads. The results for other cities are very consistent with those for Oslo. For a total of seven cases in which new arterial roads were built, a statistically non-significant reduction of 1% in the number of injury accidents was found. Two cases that involved lane additions and converting at-grade junctions to interchanges resulted in a mean accident reduction of 51%, which was highly significant. On the average, the nine arterial road projects from which evidence was summarised resulted in a net induced traffic of 16%, and a net reduction in accident rate (accidents per million vehicle kilometres) of 18%. These effects almost cancel each other, leading to a very small net change in the expected number of accidents.     

Estimating the human recovery costs of seriously injured road crash casualties

Road crashes result in substantial trauma and costs to societies around the world. Robust costing methods are an important tool to estimate costs associated with road trauma, and are key inputs into policy development and cost–benefit analysis for road safety programmes and infrastructure projects. With an expanding focus on seriously injured road crash casualties, in addition to the long standing focus on fatalities, methods for costing seriously injured casualties are becoming increasingly important. Some road safety agencies are defining a seriously injured casualty as an individual that was admitted to hospital following a road crash, and as a result, hospital separation data provide substantial potential for estimating the costs associated with seriously injured road crash casualties. The aim of this study is to establish techniques for estimating the human recovery costs of (non-fatal) seriously injured road crash casualties directly from hospital separation data. An individuals’ road crash-related hospitalisation record and their personal injury insurance claim were linked for road crashes that occurred in New South Wales, Australia. These records provided the means for estimating all of the costs to the casualty directly related to their recovery from their injuries. A total of 10,897 seriously injured road crash casualties were identified and four methods for estimating their recovery costs were examined, using either unit record or aggregated hospital separation data. The methods are shown to provide robust techniques for estimating the human recovery costs of seriously injured road crash casualties, that may prove useful for identifying, implementing and evaluating safety programmes intended to reduce the incidence of road crash-related serious injuries.     

To what extent can theory account for the findings of road safety evaluation studies?

This paper proposes a conceptual framework that can be used to assess to what extent the findings of road safety evaluation research make sense from a theoretical point of view. The effects of road safety measures are modelled as passing through two causal chains. One of these, termed the engineering effect, refers to the intended effects of a road safety measure on a set of risk factors related to accident occurrence or injury severity. The engineering effect of road safety measures is modelled in terms of nine basic risk factors, one or more of which any road safety measure needs to influence in order to have the intended effect on accidents or injuries. The other causal chain producing the effects of road safety measures is termed the behavioural effect, and refers to road user behavioural adaptations to road safety measures. The behavioural effect is related to the engineering effect, in the sense that certain properties of the engineering effect of a road safety measure influence the likelihood that behavioural adaptation will occur. The behavioural effect of a road safety measure is modelled in terms of six factors that influence the likelihood that behavioural adaptation will occur. The nine basic risk factors representing the engineering effect of a road safety measure, and the six factors influencing the likelihood of behavioural adaptation can be used as checklists in assessing whether or not the findings of road safety evaluation studies make sense from a theoretical point of view. At the current state of knowledge, a more stringent evaluation of the extent to which theory can explain the findings of road safety evaluation studies is, in most cases, not possible.     

A risk-based optimisation methodology for pavement management system of county roads

A pavement management system (PMS) is a strategic and systematic process to maintain and upgrade the road network. When funding is limited, it is very important to identify the best mix of road preservation projects that provides the maximum benefits to society in terms of overall life cycle cost of the road network. The most common factors that play an important role for identifying projects are the following: budget, traffic volume, Present Serviceability Index (PSI) and risk associated with selecting treatment types. This research develops an optimisation methodology for county paved roads that identify the best mix of preservation projects within budget, maximising traffic (passengers and trucks traffic) on treated roads, maximising the weighted average PSI, and minimising the risk. This methodology will facilitate a statewide implementation of PMS for counties in the state of Wyoming.     

The importance of confounding in observational before-and-after studies of road safety measures

This paper discusses the importance of confounding in observational before-and-after studies of road safety measures. The importance of the approach taken to controlling for confounding factors is shown by means of examples. It is shown that the size of the effect on accidents attributed to a road safety measure can be profoundly affected by which confounding factors are controlled for in an evaluation study, and the way this is done. Simple before-and-after studies, not controlling for any confounding factors should never be trusted and are likely to overstate the effects of road safety measures.     

Health-health analysis-an alternative method for economic appraisal of health policy and safety regulation. Some empirical Swedish estimates

Health-health analysis (HHA) focuses on statistical lives themselves as a numeraire. The underlying principle is that the expected gains in health and safety of reduced risks in one area may result in increasing risks somewhere else in society. By reducing one risk other risks may increase due to changed individual behaviour.In addition to this direct effect, another indirect effect will also be present. Expenditure on a particular health policy or safety regulation must be financed in one way or another, which will result in an opportunity cost or income effect leaving less resources for other health and safety promoting activities in society. Thus, we will have an effect that reduces safety and health benefits induced by that income loss. Whether the total net health effect from a specific safety regulation or health policy is positive or negative must be empirically analysed. One way of estimating the income loss that induces one death, which we call the value of an induced death (VOID), is to estimate it as a multiple of the traditional value to avert a statistical death, also named the value of a statistical life (VOSL).A contingent valuation (CV) study eliciting the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for reducing the overall risk of dying was performed as a postal questionnaire in Sweden in 1998. By use of data from this study, it was possible to estimate the VOID and the VOSL in Sweden amounting to SEK116 and SEK20.8 million respectively, indicating that the net health result confined to mortality effects, will be negative (more lives will be lost than saved) if a health policy or safety regulation will cost more than SEK116 million per life saved.     

Optimal use of warning signs in traffic

The aim of the paper is to develop a model of drivers’ behaviour particularly designed to analyse the safety and total driving cost implications of warning sign installations. One special feature of the model is that it makes a clear distinction between drivers’ perceived risk values at certain speeds and their respective objective values. When focusing on a certain stretch of road only, the paper concludes that warning signs will increase safety and probably reduce total objective driving costs; that is the sum of time costs and objective expected accident costs. Since drivers’ speed will reduce implying higher time costs per distance, the reduction in total objective driving costs will be lower than the reductions in accident costs. The analysis is then extended to comprise the whole road system and using warning signs prior to curves as an example. Besides the driving conditions in different curves, the analysis shows that the optimal number of signs is dependent on the road authorities’ objectives for road traffic and on how drivers form their risk perceptions. Generally speaking, simulations indicate that the safety and economic benefits of warning sign installation are not very high. When considering the whole road system, warning signs seem, however, to have a greater positive impact on total driving costs than on accident costs.     

Visibility in international rankings. Strategies for enhancing the competitiveness of Spanish universities

The world-wide popularity of university rankings has spurred the debate about the quality and performance of higher education systems and has had a considerable impact on global society in light of the internationalisation of higher education. While useful for policy makers, such rankings also furnish information on an institution’s “prestige”, which may in turn contribute to more effective resource capture (students, funding, projects). Certain university profiles and missions may prevent many universities from climbing to higher positions, however. One important question in this regard is: how many of a country’s universities can stand at the top of international rankings? The present article attempts to answer this question on the grounds of a study of the Spanish higher education system, and more specifically of an institutional alliance consisting of four high quality universities. A series of research activity indicators drawn from the IUNE Observatory are used to compare this alliance to leading Spanish and international universities and explore whether their visibility and consequently their position in international rankings would be enhanced if they were able to appear under a joint identity. This prospective study also addresses a series of strategies that the Spanish higher education system might implement to successfully rise to the challenges posed by future scenarios.     

A support tool for identifying evaluation issues of road safety measures

The introduction of new technologies in traffic produces a range of unknown deviations in the desired traffic process. These developments require additional ex-ante assessment procedures for measures which will be implemented in the traffic system. In this paper, the HAZOP methodology is applied to road traffic measures to provide scenarios based upon predicted deviations and problems with new, mainly in-vehicle technologies. To make HAZOP applicable for road safety purposes analysis of the expectations of road users is added to the traditional approach. In this paper, some results are shown for speed reduction measures. The dependency of the results on the membership of the HAZOP team and especially the question if a mixture of expertise is required are also discussed.     

An evaluation of costs and benefits of a vehicle periodic inspection scheme with six-monthly inspections compared to annual inspections

Although previous research suggests that safety benefits accrue from periodic vehicle inspection programmes, little consideration has been given to whether the benefits are sufficient to justify the often considerable costs of such schemes. Methodological barriers impede many attempts to evaluate the overall safety benefits of periodic vehicle inspection schemes, including this study, which did not attempt to evaluate the New Zealand warrant of fitness scheme as a whole. Instead, this study evaluated one aspect of the scheme: the effects of doubling the inspection frequency, from annual to biannual, when the vehicle reaches six years of age. In particular, reductions in safety-related vehicle faults were estimated together with the value of the safety benefits compared to the costs. When merged crash data, licensing data and roadworthiness inspection data were analysed, there were estimated to be improvements in injury crash involvement rates and prevalence of safety-related faults of respectively 8% (95% CI 0.4–15%) and 13.5% (95% CI 12.8–14.2%) associated with the increase from annual to 6-monthly inspections. The wide confidence interval for the drop in crash rate shows considerably statistical uncertainty about the precise size of the drop. Even assuming that this proportion of vehicle faults prevented by doubling the inspection frequency could be maintained over the vehicle age range 7–20 years, the safety benefits are very unlikely to exceed the additional costs of the 6-monthly inspections to the motorists, valued at $NZ 500 million annually excluding the overall costs of administering the scheme. The New Zealand warrant of fitness scheme as a whole cannot be robustly evaluated using the analysis approach used here, but the safety benefits would need to be substantial – yielding an unlikely 12% reduction in injury crashes – for benefits to equal costs.     

Is road safety management linked to road safety performance?

This research aims to explore the relationship between road safety management and road safety performance at country level. For that purpose, an appropriate theoretical framework is selected, namely the ‘SUNflower’ pyramid, which describes road safety management systems in terms of a five-level hierarchy: (i) structure and culture, (ii) programmes and measures, (iii) ‘intermediate’ outcomes’ – safety performance indicators (SPIs), (iv) final outcomes – fatalities and injuries, and (v) social costs. For each layer of the pyramid, a composite indicator is implemented, on the basis of data for 30 European countries. Especially as regards road safety management indicators, these are estimated on the basis of Categorical Principal Component Analysis upon the responses of a dedicated road safety management questionnaire, jointly created and dispatched by the ETSC/PIN group and the ‘DaCoTA’ research project. Then, quasi-Poisson models and Beta regression models are developed for linking road safety management indicators and other indicators (i.e. background characteristics, SPIs) with road safety performance. In this context, different indicators of road safety performance are explored: mortality and fatality rates, percentage reduction in fatalities over a given period, a composite indicator of road safety final outcomes, and a composite indicator of ‘intermediate’ outcomes (SPIs). The results of the analyses suggest that road safety management can be described on the basis of three composite indicators: “vision and strategy”, “budget, evaluation and reporting”, and “measurement of road user attitudes and behaviours”. Moreover, no direct statistical relationship could be established between road safety management indicators and final outcomes. However, a statistical relationship was found between road safety management and ‘intermediate’ outcomes, which were in turn found to affect ‘final’ outcomes, confirming the SUNflower approach on the consecutive effect of each layer.