共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Mingming Hu Håvard Bergsdal Ester van der Voet Gjalt Huppes Daniel B. Müller 《Building Research & Information》2013,41(3):301-317
The massive migration flows from rural to urban areas in China, combined with an expected decline in the total population over the next decades, leads to two important challenges for China's housing: the growth of its urban housing stock and the shrinkage of rural housing. The rural and urban housing systems in China were analyzed using a dynamic material flow analysis model for the period 1900–2100 for several scenarios assuming different development paths for population, urbanization, housing demand per capita, and building lifetime. The simulation results indicate that new housing construction is likely to decline for several decades due to the fast growth over the past 30 years and the expected increased longevity of dwellings. Such an oscillation of new construction activity would have significant implications for the construction industry, employment, raw material demand, and greenhouse gas emissions to produce the construction materials. Policy and practical options for mitigating the negative impacts are considered. Les flux migratoires massifs des zones rurales vers les zones urbaines en Chine, conjugués à un déclin prévu de la population totale au cours des prochaines décennies, entraînent deux défis importants pour le logement en Chine : la croissance de son parc de logements urbains et la diminution des logements ruraux. Les systèmes de logements ruraux et urbains en Chine ont été analysés en utilisant un modèle d'analyse dynamique des flux de matériaux sur la période 1900-2100 appliqué à plusieurs scénarios supposant différentes voies de développement concernant la population, l'urbanisation, la demande de logements par habitant et la durée de vie des bâtiments. Les résultats de la simulation indiquent qu'il est probable que la construction de logements neufs diminuera pendant plusieurs décennies en raison de la croissance rapide des 30 dernières années et de l'accroissement prévu de la durée de vie des logements. Une telle oscillation de l'activité de construction de logements neufs aurait d'importantes implications pour l'industrie du bâtiment, l'emploi, la demande en matières premières et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre résultant de la production des matériaux de construction. Les choix politiques et pratiques qui permettraient d'en atténuer les effets négatifs sont envisagés. Mots clés: parcs de bâtiments, demande de constructions neuves, analyse dynamique des flux de matériaux, parc de logements, durée de vie, tendances, urbanisation, Chine 相似文献
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北京住宅建设活动的物质流分析 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
基于物质流分析方法,对北京市1990~2002年新建和拆除的住宅建筑的物质流进行了分析,并对2010年北京市住宅建筑的物质流进行了估计,揭示了北京市住宅建设活动的物质消耗现状和对环境的潜在压力。结果表明:北京市住宅建设活动的直接物质投入已经达到了7 253.7×104t/年,物质产出达到了4 137.8×104t/年;万元产值的物质投入量和物质产出量在1993年后基本保持不变;住宅建设活动的能耗已经占到北京市总能耗的15%,而这其中,生产建筑材料的能源消耗就占到了89%。最后提出了改进建材的生产工艺,加强建筑垃圾的再循环利用对减少能源消耗能起到积极的推动作用,并能促进住宅建筑的可持续发展。 相似文献
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Carla Gallardo Nina Holck Sandberg Helge Brattebø 《Building Research & Information》2014,42(3):343-358
The dynamics and metabolism of the built environment are important for understanding the construction, renovation and demolition activities that characterize its long-term physical development. Previous research on building stock development is limited, particularly for developing countries. As one of the most seismically active countries in the world, Chile's built environment is constantly subjected to losses. This study included earthquake vulnerability and damage in a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) of the Chilean housing stock. Stock and flows of residential floor area were modelled using population and life style parameters. Demolition was modelled assuming a constant demolition rate. By characterizing the building stock according to vulnerability classes and establishing a mass balance per class, the effects of different typology distributions on the overall damage to the stock caused by earthquakes could be assessed. Scenarios with different trends in typology distribution for new construction and renovation suggest that significant potential exists for reducing future earthquake damage in the Chilean housing stock. This is best achieved by gradually reducing the vulnerability of buildings to earthquakes. Legislation, building standards and financial instruments could be used to ensure such reductions in earthquake damage and thereby provide socio-economic benefits in the future. 相似文献
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Igor Sartori Håvard Bergsdal Daniel B. Müller Helge Brattebø 《Building Research & Information》2013,41(5):412-425
The activities of construction, renovation and demolition related to the dwelling (housing) stock have a strong impact on both material and energy demands. A deeper understanding of the dynamics driving these activities is a precondition for a more consistent way to address material and energy demands. The method presented herein is based on a dynamic material flow analysis and is applied to the Norwegian dwelling stock. Input data to the model are population and socio-economic lifestyle indicators such as the average number of persons per dwelling and the average size of dwellings; these determine the size of the floor area stock. Parameters such as the lifetime of dwellings and renovation intervals complete the input set. Outputs of the model are the stock and flows of floor area for the period 1900–2100. Analysis of the renovation activity is given particular attention. Several scenarios are considered in order to test the model's sensitivity to input's uncertainties. Results are compared with statistical data, where the latter are available. The main conclusion is that in the coming decades renovation is likely to overtake construction as the major activity in the Norwegian residential sector. Les activités de construction, de rénovation et démolition relatives au parc de logements ont un fort impact sur la demande de matériaux et d'énergie. Une meilleure compréhension de la dynamique qui anime ces activités est une condition préalable à une méthode plus cohérente de traitement des demandes de matériaux et d'énergie. La méthode présentée ici repose sur une analyse dynamique des flux de matériaux telle qu'elle est appliquée au parc de logements en Norvège. Les données fournies au modèle sont des indicateurs du mode de vie de la population et des indicateurs socio-économiques comme le nombre moyen de personnes par logement et la taille moyenne des logements; ces indicateurs déterminent la superficie des logements. Des paramètres comme la durée de vie des logements et les intervalles de rénovation complètent les données d'entrée. Les résultats du modèle sont le parc de logements et sa superficie pour la période 1900–2100. L'analyse de l'activité de rénovation reçoit une attention particulière. Plusieurs scénarios sont envisagés afin de mettre à l'épreuve la sensibilité du modèle par rapport aux incertitudes des entrées. Les résultats sont comparés aux données statistiques lorsque ces dernières sont disponibles. La conclusion principale réside dans le fait que dans les prochaines décennies, le secteur de rénovation risque de dépasser celui de la construction en tant qu'activité majeure du secteur résidentiel norvégien. Mots clés: parc de bâtiments, construction, démographie, démolition, prévisions, logement, analyse des flux de matériaux, rénovation, parc résidentiel, Norvège 相似文献
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Statistical analysis of the Greek residential building stock 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The latest developments in the field of energy supply, along with the major issue of the environment protection, set new priorities and yardsticks concerning the energy policies implemented worldwide. The development and implementation of effective energy conservation policies has been a target of the European Union ever since the days when it was still called European Economic Community. In this framework, and despite the successes already monitored, the need for further energy conservation in the building sector is a both an aim and a tool. Emphasis is being placed on the residential building stock and the improvement of its energy performance. Greece has been one of the last countries to adopt the Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings. A thorough research regarding the nature of the Greek residential building stock helps in highlighting the problems associated with this delay, but also the perspectives for catching up with the other EU member states and achieving the aims set for the coming years. This paper aims at providing detailed information on the residential urban building stock, as determined in a field study in typical big and smaller Greek cities. 相似文献
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采用国际上流行的物质流分析法,基于“欧盟导则”确定的物质流分析框架,对调研水泥企业建立直接物质投入、总物质需求等帐户,并根据这些帐户衍生的基础指标作为环境载荷指标,对调研水泥企业造成的环境压力进行比较分析。 相似文献
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Since their introduction in 1929, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been used in a wide range of applications, mainly in industrialized countries. Although production of PCBs was largely banned in the 1970s, they are still present in various applications as well as in the environment where they remain a potential threat to animal and human health. PCBs were applied in different building materials in Norway in the period between 1950 and 1980. This study attempts to estimate the use for various applications in buildings, and to distinguish between residential and non-residential buildings. The results are combined with a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) to estimate past and future stocks and flows of building-related PCBs in Norway. Results indicate that PCBs in the building stock peaked around 1980, and have since decreased as PCBs have been banned and efforts made to remove the substance from existing applications. However, considerable amounts remain in the building stock and will be released in smaller amounts for many more decades. While current legislation focuses mainly on the applications with short lifetimes, the handling of building applications with long lifetimes represent the main unresolved challenges of the future. 相似文献
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调湿建材调节室内湿度的可行性分析 总被引:14,自引:1,他引:13
探讨了调湿建材作为一种室内湿度调节方式的可行性,计算了北京地区气候条件下某办公室全年的湿负荷,估算了所需调湿建材的蓄湿量,介绍了一种以高分子树脂凝胶为主要材料的调湿建材。 相似文献
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A new methodology is presented for estimating age distribution and survival functions of an urban building stock. This allows for a random sample of the undemolished stock together with a complete inventory count of the demolished part to create a Kaplan–Meier estimator for the survival function. This method can be applied to any building stock with difficult access to data. A demonstration of this method is applied to a sample of German urban stock and used to illustrate the data-collection process, the survival analysis and an estimate of the dynamics. Findings from this sample indicate a slower dynamic in the residential part in comparison with the non-residential part, which is related to seemingly different survival functions. Another finding is that the percentage of undemolished buildings seems much lower for older buildings than for the younger structures. Through a Weibull fit, little future change in this survival pattern is estimated. The estimates obtained in this preliminary study challenge many assumptions of service life, economic life and effective life time. It is found that the effective life time of building stocks is much higher than generally assumed, and possibly independent of their age. For recent buildings, the implication is whether the existing service life or economic life approaches are adequate to understand and plan for a potentially higher survival rate. Nous présentons ici une nouvelle méthodologie pour l'estimation de la répartition des âges et des fonctions de survie d'un parc de bâtiments urbains. A partir d'un échantillon aléatoire du parc non démoli et d'un inventaire complet de la partie démolie, cette méthodologie permet la création d'un estimateur Kaplan–Meier pour la fonction de survie. La méthode peut être appliquée à tout parc de bâtiments pour lequel les données sont difficiles à obtenir. Une démonstration est appliquée à un échantillon de parc urbain allemand et permet d'illustrer le processus de collecte de données, l'analyse de survie ainsi qu'une estimation de la dynamique. L'analyse de cet échantillon révèle une dynamique plus lente dans la partie résidentielle par rapport à la partie non résidentielle et qui est associée à des fonctions de survie apparemment différentes. Une autre conclusion est que le pourcentage des bâtiments non démolis est bien plus faible pour les bâtiments anciens que pour les structures plus récentes. Une régression de Weibull permet de prédire la faible évolution de ce modèle de survie à terme. Les estimations obtenues dans cette étude préliminaire remettent en cause bon nombre d'hypothèses sur les durées de vie utile, économique et effective. La durée de vie utile des parcs de bâtiments apparaît ainsi bien plus longue que l'on croît habituellement et pourrait être indépendante de l'âge. Pour les bâtiments récents, l'étude suggère que l'on est en droit de s'interroger quant à la pertinence des démarches actuelles appuyées sur la durée de vie utile ou économique pour comprendre et prévoir des mesures de relèvement du taux de survie. Mots clés: répartition des âges, parc de bâtiments, conservation, taux de démolition, planification, gestion de biens, durée de vie utile, analyse de survie, tissu urbain 相似文献
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围护结构传热系数动态分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
分析了围护结构内表面热流的动态特性,得出了反映室外气候与围护结构热惰性共同作用的室外加权温度,并以此为基础讨论了夏季现场测量围护结构传热系数的有效性。 相似文献
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As large amounts of materials are used and have accumulated in buildings and civil engineering projects, it is necessary to understand material flow in terms of construction sectors for resource management. The consumption, discard and in-use stock of four metals (steel, aluminium, copper and zinc) in Japan's building stock are forecast through to 2050. To clarify the factors that affect metal stocks and flows in construction, the metal consumption was decomposed into annual new floor area constructed and metal intensity (i.e. the amount of metal used per unit floor area). The decomposition was meaningful for understanding characteristic patterns of factors of different metals and for envisaging future scenarios based on past trends. It was estimated that the annual new floor area constructed will remain at current levels, whereas metal intensity will have a significant impact on stocks and flows. The methodology developed in this study can be used to evaluate the impact of technology changes that would take place in building and civil engineering projects. 相似文献
15.
现场测量建筑围护结构热阻动态分析法的应用 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
目前现场测量建筑围护结构热阻普遍使用算术平均法,本文根据实际中遇到的一些问题,阐明了动态分析法的原理,并编制了动态分析法处理数据的程序。通过在实验室中用热箱法验证了动态分析法理论以及自编程序的正确性,并通过现场工程检测验证了动态分析法用于实际工程的可行性,说明动态分析法能够在保证一定准确性的同时缩短测量时间,提高现场测量围护结构的工作效率。 相似文献
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某工程是存在多项基本不规则项的复杂超高层建筑,文中采用弹塑性动力时程分析法,分析结构在罕遏地震作用下的变形特征、构件内力及剪力墙、连梁、框架柱及框架梁损伤等非线性动力响应;研究结构在罕遇地震作用下的整体抗震性能,找出薄弱部位和构件,为施工图设计中采取有针对性的加强措施来实现"大震不倒"的设防目标提供设计依据。 相似文献
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For fatigue damage prognosis of a long-span steel bridge, the dynamic stress analysis of critical structural components of the bridge under the future dynamic vehicle loading is essential. This paper thus presents a framework of dynamic stress analysis for fatigue damage prognosis of long-span steel bridges under the future dynamic vehicle loading. The multi-scale finite element (FE) model of the bridge is first developed using shell/plate elements to simulate the critical structural components (local models) and using beam/truss elements to simulate the rest part of the bridge (global model). With the appropriate coupling of the global and local models, the multi-scale FE model can accurately capture simultaneously not only the global behavior in terms of displacement and acceleration but also the local behavior in terms of stress and strain. A vehicle traffic load model is then developed for forecasting the future vehicle loading based on the recorded weigh-in-motion (WIM) data and using the agent-based traffic flow microsimulation. The forecasted future vehicle loading is finally applied on the multi-scale model of a real long-span cable-stayed bridge for dynamic stress analysis and fatigue damage prognosis. The obtained results show that the proposed framework is effective and accurate for dynamic stress analysis and fatigue damage prognosis. 相似文献
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在分离模式钢筋混凝土梁的有限元模型基础上,对粘钢加固钢筋混凝土梁建立了钢筋混凝土梁—粘结剂层—加固薄钢板的层叠结构有限元模型,并利用此模型对粘钢加固钢筋混凝土梁进行了动力学特性分析与动力响应计算。 相似文献