Energy prices,labour productivity and causality: An empirical examination

This paper is directed at examining the impact of changing energy prices on productivity in the USA. By using a cross correlation test for unidirectional causality, it is clearly demonstrated that for the period 1947–1980, the rate of change of productivity was adversely affected by changing energy prices. Furthermore, there is at least a four to five year lag before the entire impact is exhausted.     

Energy prices and investment over the business cycle

This paper develops a theoretical investment equation for the firm which explicitly includes the relationship between investment and the price of energy. Using intertemporal comparative statics, we investigate how economic conditions affect that relationship. In a two-period model, the net present value of the firm's cash inflows is maximized subject to constraints. The resulting investment equation for the firm is summed over all firms to produce an aggregate investment equation. By assuming that aggregate shocks do not affect every firm simultaneously, we could investigate the effects of varying economic conditions on the relationship under study. We find that energy price increases will retard aggregate real investment. Also, this restraining impact will be greatest during boom periods and least during recessions. Further, the impact of an energy price increase on aggregate investment diminishes as the level of energy prices increases. We show that simple OLS techniques are not appropriate for empirical estimation of the relationship between aggregate investment and energy price; they could produce inconsistent results depending on the time period studied because of the business cycle effects. A survey of corporations along product lines would be useful to test for such non-linearity.     

Energy planning and investment for increased earnings The case of Nigeria's oil and gas resources

In view of Nigeria's limited reserves of oil and the high growth rate of oil consumption, and in the wake of the developments in the world oil market since 1981 which have resulted in a drastic shortfall in Nigeria's revenues, the main objective of this article is to highlight some important issues that would spur policymakers towards improved energy planning and increased energy investment in Nigeria so as to assist her in the rationalization of the energy production-mix and consumption, as well as in earning increased revenues from her oil and gas resources. Policymakers in Nigeria are called upon to put an end to further procrastination concerning the LNG investment project so that the bulk of the country's gas, which is presently being flared, can be re-injected, consumed locally and exported to supplement dwindling oil revenues.     

Energy performance ratings and house prices in Wales: An empirical study

This paper investigates the effect of Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) ratings on residential prices in Wales. Drawing on a sample of approximately 192,000 transactions, the capitalisation of energy efficiency ratings into house prices is investigated using two approaches. The first adopts a cross-sectional framework to investigate the effect of EPC rating on price. The second approach applies a repeat-sales methodology to investigate the impact of EPC rating on house price appreciation. Statistically significant positive price premiums are estimated for dwellings in EPC bands A/B (12.8%) and C (3.5%) compared to houses in band D. For dwellings in band E (−3.6%) and F (−6.5%) there are statistically significant discounts. Such effects may not be the result of energy performance alone. In addition to energy cost differences, the price effect may be due to additional benefits of energy efficient features. An analysis of the private rental segment reveals that, in contrast to the general market, low-EPC rated dwellings were not traded at a significant discount. This suggests different implicit prices of potential energy savings for landlords and owner-occupiers.     

An empirical analysis of lumpy investment: the case of US petroleum refining industry

This paper employs five econometric models to examine lumpy investment and investigates the investment behavior of the US petroleum refining industry. Firms in the industry are classified into three groups by their size. All three groups show zero investment, disinvestment and investment in accordance with economic conditions. The analysis finds the minimum amount of investment and disinvestment for each group, which suggests that the size of fixed costs of investment is substantial, regardless of firm size. However, small firms adjust capital stock more slowly than medium or large firms. The analysis also suggests the existence of a convex adjustment cost.     

Space and time: Wind in an investment planning model

Investment planning models inform investment decisions and government policies. Current models do not capture the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, restricting the applicability of the models for high penetrations of renewables. We provide a methodology to capture spatial variation in wind output in combination with transmission constraints. The representation of wind distributions using stochastic approaches or using extensive historic data sets exceeds computational constraints for real world application. Hence we restrict the amount of input data, and use bootstrapping to illustrate the robustness of the results. For the UK power system we model wind deployment and the value of transmission capacity.     

Energy structure,marginal efficiency and substitution rate: An empirical study of China

Energy efficiency is an important factor in developing energy policies as it represents the extent to which resources support economic output. In recent literature, relevant studies have mainly focused on aggregate energy efficiency, but rarely touched on the marginal efficiency of diverse energy resources and their comparative substitution rate. During 1978–2003, China's energy efficiency continually increased; and consequently became a hot topic in contemporary literature. However, there is no empirical study on the relationship between energy structure and energy efficiency. In order to close the gap, this paper reports the empirical study of the impact of China's energy structure on its energy efficiency from 1978 to 2003. The work covered primary estimation of the marginal efficiency of coal and petroleum in China, as well as the comparative substitution rate. Results indicate that the substitution rate between petroleum and coal is a factor of 5.38.     

Energy taxes as a signaling device: An empirical analysis of consumer preferences

This paper presents an econometric study dealing with household demand in Sweden. The main objective is to empirically examine the differences in consumer reaction to the introduction of, or the change, in environmental taxes. Main focus is on environmental taxes as a signaling device. The hypothesis is that the introduction of an environmental tax provides new information about the properties of the directly taxed goods. This in turn may affect consumer preferences for these goods, hence altering the consumption choice. The result from the econometric analysis shows that all goods have negative own-price elasticities, and positive income elasticities. Concerning the signalling effect of environmental taxes the results are somewhat ambiguous. The tax elasticity for energy goods used for heating seems to be significantly higher than the traditional price elasticity, whereas the opposite seems to be the case for energy goods used for transportation.     

Energy saving by firms: decision-making, barriers and policies

Promoting investments in energy-saving technologies is an important means for achieving environmental goals. Empirical evidence on success conditions of associated policies, however, is scarce. Based on a survey among Dutch firms, this paper sets out to identify the factors that determine the investment behaviour of firms, their attitude towards various types of energy policy, and their responsiveness to changes in environmental policy in the Netherlands. On the basis of discrete choice models, this paper aims to investigate empirically, whether (and how) these strategic features vary over firm characteristics and over sectors.     

Energy investment and economic growth : A simplified approach

A model is developed to investigate the effect of energy investment on economic growth under a set of simplifying assumptions. The economy is treated as a two sector aggregate; the energy sector and the rest of the economy, whereas the model describing the energy-economy interaction is linear to the differential changes of the variables, adaptable to structural evolution and requires a modest amount of data for initialization. It can be used in a single stage or an iterative mode to produce outcomes for the short and medium run. The analysis reveals that energy productive investment has had an impact on the rate of formation of the non-energy capital stock and subsequently on economic growth. These effects appear amplified under a regime of increasing energy price.     

Testing for stability: Motor gasoline demand and distillate fuel oil demand

The structural stability of energy demand relationships is an important question in light of the events of the 1970s. This paper looks at this issue for two energy types, motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil (home heating oil). From the results of a statistical test developed by Brown, Durbin and Evans, it appears that the demand for motor gasoline destabilized following the 1979 Iranian revolution while the demand for distillate fuel oil destabilized following the very severe winter of 1976–1977. Once destabilized, neither of the demand relationships returned to their prior form.     

Energy resource development and the British economy: A review

The last decade or so has seen major changes in the structure of the UK economy. There has been a continual decline in manufacturing, both relatively (not unique to the UK) as well as absolutely (unique to the UK of all the major industrialized economies), while the discovery and exploitation of oil in the North Sea has moved the UK from a position of total dependence on imported oil, through self sufficiency, to its becoming a significant net exporter. Such oil developments have occurred against the background of two major oil price increases, in 1973/74 and 1979/80, which have also had major implications not only for the UK but also for its trading partners. The accelerated decline of the traditional manufacturing industries, and the associated rise in unemployment, to many observers, is at least partly a result of the emergence of the UK as a major oil producer. The theoretical justification for such a viewpoint is identified. This paper is predominantly concerned with outlining the importance of oil and gas production to the UK economy. It also discusses the major theoretical models that have been developed to analyse both the short run and long run impact of oil on that economy. A quantitative assessment is made of the impact of oil on the UK economy, and of the role of the Government arising from such a discovery.     

Energy,industry and politics: Energy,vested interests,and long-term economic growth and development

The article seeks to explicate a link between energy and long-term economic growth and development. While in many ways intuitive, attempts at sketching theoretical frameworks explicating this link have been few and simplistic, typically limited to technology and economics. This article emphasizes the importance of politics as well, fostering a symbiosis between the dominant industries of a historical epoch and the energy system that enabled them to flourish. The framework combines Joseph Schumpeter and Mancur Olson, emphasizing 1) the importance of structural economic change for long-term growth and development and 2) vested interests. The framework yields one theoretical proposition: In order to rise, states must prevent vested interests from blocking structural change. States that are unable to do this will get locked into yesterday's technologies, industries and energy systems, effectively consigning themselves to stagnation and decline. A brief empirical section provides historical data from 6 historical epochs (including present-day renewables) over a period of 250 years to demonstrate the usefulness of the approach. While no exhaustive test, the data suggests that countries that have prevented vested interests from blocking change have been far more successful in fostering a symbiosis between energy and industry than those countries that have not.     

Structural change and technology choice: Energy use in Mexican manufacturing industry, 1970–1981

This paper analyses industrial energy use in a country that has experienced falling, instead of rising, energy prices. Mexico subsidizes domestic energy consumption with the avowed purpose of stimulating industrialization. Methods are developed to distinguish the effects of technology choice from the effects of changing industrial structure, and are then used to analyse the increased energy intensity of manufacturing industry, 1970–1981. The increase is found to depend entirely on the adoption of more energy-using technology, whereas the changes in output structure have had little or no effect. There has been a slight bias in favour of the less energy-intensive sectors.     

Climate policy and energy-intensive manufacturing: A comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of cost mitigation provisions in the American Energy and Security Act of 2009

In response to the ongoing climate policy debates, this study examines the cost impacts of carbon-pricing legislation on selected US energy-intensive manufacturing industries. Specifically, it evaluates output-based rebate measures and the border adjustment provision specified in the bill, and tests the effectiveness of cost containment features of the policy, such as the international offsets, under various market assumptions. Results of the examination confirm that in all policy cases or industries, the output-based rebates would effectively mitigate the manufacturers' carbon-pricing costs in the short-to-medium term. However as the rebates decline after 2020, especially in a case where low-carbon electricity generation or international offsets are not readily available or implemented, these industries would suffer greater declines in profitability. At the same time, the study's findings were mixed concerning the effectiveness of the border adjustment measure in reducing cost impacts after 2020. While border adjustments could reduce costs to US manufacturing sectors, at least temporarily, they could create problems for domestic downstream producers and exports, under cost pass-along conditions. However at best, the output-based rebates, international offset, and border adjustment and measures primarily buy time for manufacturers. The only long-term solution is for EITE industries to invest in energy-saving and next-generation low-carbon technologies.     

Heating value of biodiesel: An empirical and theoretical exploration

The heating value of a fuel affects both the brake thermal efficiency and combustion characteristics of an engine. Its value for fuel blend cannot be calculated based on the blend ratio even though the heating values of blend fuels are known. Therefore, a relationship was formulated from the experimental data to predict the heating values of fuel blends. This study was carried out to compute the theoretical heating values of raw as well as purified pungamia oil with different blend ratio by means of SPSS software (ver. 16). The Durbin–Watson (multiple regressions) tests were carried out in the present study to validate the experimental results. The values of density, flash point, viscosity, and percentage of blends were considered an independent variable, and the heating value was considered a dependent variable for the analysis of heating values of different pungamia oil blends with diesel. The theoretically calculated heating values and relationship between the independent variables were around ± 1%. Also, these values were compared with that of the experimental results of other researchers and the variation was only about 2%. Thus, the validations of developed relation with experimental results show good compliance.     

The electronic properties and structural stability of LaFeO3 oxide by niobium doping: A density functional theory study

The niobium doping perovskite has been used in anode materials of solid oxide fuel cell. The electronic properties and structural stability of LaFeO₃ (LFO) oxide by Nb-doping and the adsorption of H₂ molecule at the clean and Nb-doped LFO (001) surface are investigated by theoretical calculations. The calculated results reveal that the band gap of the orthorhombic LFO is 2.04 eV and the gap disappears after the Nb-doping, which improves the electrical conductivity. The Nb-doping increases the formation energy of oxygen vacancy in orthorhombic LFO. The calculated results of binding energy and formation enthalpy imply that the structural stability is strengthened after Nb-doping, which provides a theoretical explanation for recent experimental observations. This result can be attributed to the change of electronic structure after the Nb-doping. The bond mechanisms for LFO and Nb-doped LFO are obtained by analyzing density of states, Mulliken charges and bond population. Based on adsorption properties, it can be found that the adsorption of H₂ molecule is slightly enhanced after Nb-doping and the Nb-doping facilitates that H₂ molecule dissociates to H atoms. These results could provide powerful interpretations for the origin of experimental phenomenon.     

Time-of use rates and peak period electricity consumption : An empirical note

Data on seven Californian hydraulic cement plants are used to estimate the effect of time-of-use electricity rates on peak period electricity usage. The results indicate a small dampening of on-peak demand which is more pronounced in the winter. There is also weak support for a reduction in peak demand variance, but this is more evident in the summer.     

First-principle prediction of one-dimensional silicon allotropes: Promising new candidate for chemical and electrochemical hydrogen storage

Silicon is an excellent candidate for efficient hydrogen-storage medium, but hydrogen is mainly stored on the surface of silicon structure and the large volume expansion and contraction of structure during hydrogen storage/release seriously damages its structural stability. In order to increase hydrogen concentration values in silicon nanostructures and enhance the cyclic stability of structure, we predicted 1D silicon allotropes at different ambient hydrogen concentration conditions, and investigated the structural stability and electronic properties of these allotropes. The results show that the spaces around these structures give them a larger degree of freedom and the H₂ filled in the interspaces also continuously provides them with sufficient hydrogen sources for supplement and replacement. Most of the generated 1D silicon allotropes are both dynamically and thermodynamically stable and most of them are semiconductors. The low structural dimension ensures that these 1D silicon allotropes have high chemical hydrogen storage capacity, and the structural stability at ambient hydrogen concentration provides a strong guarantee for the cyclic stability of chemical and electrochemical hydrogen storage for these allotropes. Moreover, hydrogen atoms can diffuse not only on the surface of 1D silicon allotropes but also between two closely spaced 1D silicon allotropes, which provides more convenience for the application of 1D silicon allotropes in chemical and electrochemical hydrogen storage. Our results can enrich the library of 1D silicon nanostructures used for hydrogen storage and provide more understanding of their structural stability and electronic properties, which can provide theoretical reference for their future application.     

Regulatory reforms and productivity: An empirical analysis of the Japanese electricity industry

The Japanese electricity industry has experienced regulatory reforms since the mid-1990s. This article measures productivity in Japan's steam power-generation sector and examines the effect of reforms on the productivity of this industry over the period 1978–2003. We estimate the Luenberger productivity indicator, which is a generalization of the commonly used Malmquist productivity index, using a data envelopment analysis approach. Factors associated with productivity change are investigated through dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of panel data. Our empirical analysis shows that the regulatory reforms have contributed to productivity growth in the steam power-generation sector in Japan.