Future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Jordanian industries

Most, i.e. 85%, of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Jordan emanate as a result of fossil fuel combustion. The industrial sector consumed 23.3% of the total national fuel consumption for heat and electric-power generation in 1999. The CO₂ emissions from energy use in manufacturing processes represent 12.1% of the total national CO₂ emissions. Carbon dioxide is also released as a result of the calcining of carbonates during the manufacture of cement and iron. Electricity, which is the most expensive form of energy, in 1999 represented 45% of total fuel used for heat and power nationally. Heavy fuel oil and diesel oil represented 46% and 7%, respectively, of all energy used by industry. Scenarios for future energy-demands and the emissions of gaseous pollutants, including GHGs, have been predicted for the industrial sector. For these, the development of a baseline scenario relied on historical data concerning consumption, major industries’ outputs, as well as upon pertinent published governmental policies and plans. Possible mitigation options that could lead to a reduction in GHG emissions are assessed, with the aim of achieving a 10% reduction by 2010, compared with the baseline scenario. Many viable CO₂ emission mitigation measures have been identified for the industrial sector, and some of these can be considered as attractive opportunities due to the low financial investments required and short pay back periods. These mitigation options have been selected on the basis of low GHG emission rates and expert judgement as to their viability for wide-scale implementation and economic benefits. The predictions show that the use of more efficient lighting and motors, advanced energy systems and more effective boilers and furnaces will result in a significant reduction in the rates of GHG emissions at an initial cost of between 30 and 90 US$ t⁻¹ of CO₂ release avoided. However, most of these measures have a negative cost per ton of CO₂ reduced, indicating short pay-back periods for the capital investments needed.     

Physical sustainability assessment for the China society: Exergy-based systems account for resources use and environmental emissions

As a physical assessment of the sustainability of the China society, presented in this paper is an exergy-based systems account for resources use and environmental emissions of the China society in 2006 as the most recent year with statistics availability. Exergy analysis is applied to elucidate the resources flows from the natural environment into the society, between other countries or regions and the society, between the sectors of the society, and the emissions outflows into the natural environment from different sectors. For the China society broken down into seven sectors (i.e., extraction, conversion, agriculture, industry, transportation, tertiary and households) as one of the most complicated cases, systems account of environmental emissions as greenhouse gases and “three wastes” is carried out for the first time, combined with an updated resources account. The total societal exergy consumption amounts to 101.1 EJ, of which 93.6% is due to resources use accounted as 94.6 EJ, of which 23.2% is by the industry sector, 22.8% by conversion, 20.4% by households, 12.3% by agriculture, 9.0% by tertiary, 6.9% by extraction and 5.4% by transport, and 6.4% due to environmental emissions accounted as 6481.6 PJ, including greenhouse gas emissions of 5706.1 PJ, with the highly remarkable fraction of 49.05% from CH₄ of the same importance as 50.91% from CO₂ and only 0.04% from N₂O, and “three wastes” emissions of only 775.5 PJ. The extraction sector is shown as the leading emitter with 32.6% of the total emissions, followed by the industry with 20.0%, agriculture with 17.3%, and conversion sector with 16.8%. To characterize the network performance in context of environmental resources from a systems ecological perspective, exergy-based ecological efficiency and resources conversion coefficient are found as 88.8% and 91.3% for the extraction sector, 29.0% and 30.0% for the conversion sector, 31.5% and 33.5% for the agriculture sector, 34.8% and 36.1% for the industry sector, 16.3% and 17.3% for the transportation sector, 38.4% and 38.5% for the tertiary sector, and only 1.3% and 1.3% for the households sector, respectively. Comparisons with other societies and with China society in previous years are made to further illustrate the physical sustainability of the societal system on the international and development horizons.     

Assessing the sustainability of the UK society using thermodynamic concepts: Part 2

By building on the first part of our analysis, this second part attempts to provide a further understanding of the UK society's metabolism, its impact and offer policy suggestions that could promote a shift towards sustainability. The methodologies employed in this second part include Exergy Analysis (EA) and Extended Exergy Analysis (EEA). Exergy inputs and outputs amounted to 17423.9 and 11888.7 PJ, respectively, with energy carries, mainly fossil fuels, being both the predominant inputs (15597.1 PJ) and outputs (5147.1 PJ). Exergy consumption and efficiency for various economic sectors and subsectors have been calculated with the residential and service sector showing the lowest exergy conversion efficiencies (11.2% and 12.3%, respectively) while certain industrial subsectors, such as the aluminium and iron/steel industries showed the highest exergy conversion factors (67.0 and 62.1%). Extended exergy efficiencies were somewhat different owing to the different calculation procedure. Extended exergy efficiencies were 91.4% for the extraction sector, 38.9% for the conversion sector, 49.1% for the agriculture sector, 31.5% for the transportation sector, 38.6% for the industrial sector and 80.0% for the tertiary sector.     

Scaling up concentrating solar thermal technology in China

More than 1300 GW new generating capacity will be added in China's power sector over the period 2005–2030 under the BAU scenario in [1], even higher than the total installed capacity in the United States to date. China’s industrial and service sectors are expected to maintain rapid development rate over the next decades, driving up the demand for electric power and heat. However, China’s power and industrial process heat generation are heavily relying upon coal-fired thermal power plants resulting in tremendous rise in greenhouse gas emissions. Clean technology such as concentrating solar thermal (CST) needs to play a more important role in power and heat generation in China to accelerate the decarbonisation in the power sector and commercial and industrial process heat generation cost-effectively. This paper attempts to explore the opportunity and challenge of development and deployment of CST in China from both technical and socioeconomic analysis perspectives. It is argued that rapid deployment of CST in China will contribute to enabling sustainable energy supply and environmental securities, as well as improved economic performance in new technology innovation in Asia Pacific area over the next decades. Supportive policy framework should be set up to encourage scaling up CST industry. The success of deployment of CST technology will also allow Chinese power and heat generators to strengthen their competitiveness in the context of intensified global constraint of carbon emissions. Institutional innovation and policy instruments for scaling up this technology and the enabling conditions of successful implementation are also investigated.     

Cost‐effectiveness analysis of energy efficiency measures in the Swiss chemical and pharmaceutical industry

Energy efficiency improvement is an effective way of reducing energy demand and CO₂ emissions. Although the overall final energy savings potential in chemical industry has been estimated in a few countries, energy efficiency potentials by concrete measures applicable in the sector have been scarcely explored and their associated costs are hardly analyzed. In Switzerland, the production of chemicals and pharmaceuticals exceeds all other industrial sectors in terms of energy use and CO₂ emissions, and it accounted for 22% of the total industry's overall final energy demand and 25% of the CO₂ emissions related to non‐renewable energy sources in 2016. In this study, the economic potentials for energy efficiency improvement and CO₂ emissions reduction in the Swiss chemical and pharmaceutical industry are investigated in the form of energy efficiency cost curves. The economic potential for final energy savings and CO₂ abatement based on energy‐relevant investments is estimated at 15% and 22% of the sector's final energy use and fossil fuel‐related CO₂ emissions in 2016, respectively. Measures related to process heat integration are expected to play a key role for final energy savings. The economic electricity savings potential by improving motor systems is estimated at 15% of the electricity demand by these systems in 2016. The size of economic potential of energy efficiency improvement across the sector decreases from 15% to 11% for 0.5 times lower final energy prices while the size increases insignificantly for 1.5 times higher final energy prices. The additional power generation potential based on Combined Heat and Power plants is estimated at 14 MW for 2016. This study is a contribution to the so far limited international literature on economic energy efficiency measures applicable in this heterogeneous sector and can support policy development. The results for specific costs of energy efficiency measures can also be adapted to other parts of the world by making suitable adjustments which in return may provide useful insights for decision makers to invest in economically viable clean energy solutions.     

Multiple criteria evaluation of current energy resources for Turkish manufacturing industry

Energy is the main component of natural resources of developing, as well as developed, countries like Turkey. Because of economic and social developments, the demand for energy, in general, has increased considerably in Turkey. Since Turkey is not an oil or natural gas (NG) producing country, the energy resource usage for energy consumption should be effective. The Turkish industrial sector comprises approximately 36% of Turkey’s primary energy consumption, and the manufacturing industry is the largest industrial sector. In this study, the focus was on the manufacturing industry as the major energy consuming sector in Turkey, and it was analyzed in terms of efficient use of energy resources. The most widely used energy resources in the Turkish manufacturing industry, namely fuel-oil, coal, electricity, LPG and NG were taken into account. Evaluation and selection of current energy resources in this selected industry can be viewed as a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem, including human judgments, tangible and intangible criteria and priorities and trade offs between goals and criteria. The analytic network process (ANP), one of the MCDM methods, was used to evaluate the most suitable energy resources for the manufacturing industry in this study.     

Modeling of current and future energyintensity and greenhouse gas emissions ofthe Lebanese industrial sector: assessmentof mitigation options

Greenhouse gas emissions in Lebanon mainly come from energy activities, which are responsible for 85% of all CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from energy use in manufacturing industries and construction represent 24% of the total emissions of the energy sector. Lebanese manufacturers' accounted for 39.15 million gigajoules of fuel consumption for heat and power generation in 1994, including both fuel used directly and fuel burned remotely to generate electricity used in the sector. In addition to being processed by combustion, CO₂ is generated in calcining of carbonates in the manufacture of cement, iron and glass. Electricity, the most expensive form of energy, represented 25.87% of all fuel used for heat and power. Residual fuel oil and diesel, which are used mainly in direct combustion processes, represent 26.85 and 26.55% of all energy use by industry, respectively. Scenarios for future energy use and CO₂ emissions are developed for the industrial sector in Lebanon. The development of the baseline scenario relied on available data on major plants' outputs, and on reported amounts of fuels used by the industrial sector as a whole. Energy use in industry and the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Lebanon are projected in baseline scenarios that reflect technologies, activities and practices that are likely to evolve from the base year 1994 to year 2040. Mitigation work targets a 15% of CO₂ emissions from the baseline scenario by year 2005 and a 20–30% reduction of CO₂ emissions by year 2040. The mitigation options selected for analysis are screened on the basis of GHG emissions and expert judgement on the viability of their wide-scale implementation and economic benefits. Using macroeconomic assessment and energy price assumptions, the final estimates of potential GHG emissions and reduction costs of various mitigation scenarios are calculated. The results show that the use of efficient electric motors, efficient boilers and furnaces with fuel switching from fuel oil to natural gas has the largest impact on GHG emissions at a levelized annual cost that ranges from −20 to −5 US$/tonne of CO₂ reduced. The negative costs are indicative of direct savings obtained in energy cost for those mitigation options.     

Factors influencing CO2 emissions in China's power industry: Co-integration analysis

More than 40% of China's total CO₂ emissions originate from the power industry. The realization of energy saving and emission reduction within China's power industry is therefore crucial in order to achieve CO₂ emissions reduction in this country. This paper applies the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration model to study the major factors which have influenced CO₂ emissions within China's power industry from 1980 to 2010. Results have shown that CO₂ emissions from China's power industry have been increasing rapidly. From 1980 to 2010, the average annual growth rate was 8.5%, and the average growth rate since 2002 has amounted to 10.5%. Secondly, the equipment utilization hour (as an indicator of the power demand) has the greatest influence on CO₂ emissions within China's power industry. In addition, the impact of the industrial added value of the power sector on CO₂ emissions is also positive from a short-term perspective. Thirdly, the Granger causality results imply that one of the important motivators behind China's technological progress, within the power industry, originates from the pressures created by a desire for CO₂ emissions reduction. Finally, this paper provides policy recommendations for energy saving and emission reduction for China's power industry.     

The Philippines' five-year energy program: 1981–85

The paper states the rationale behind the Philippines' Five-Year Energy Program; its underlying philosophy which is to provide the consumer with cost-effective energy alternatives that are essential to the economic, social and political progress of the nation; the basic policy objectives as well as the concrete plans of action and quantitative goals of each sector.Assuming a 6.3% growth rate in energy demand, it is envisioned that the Philippines' total commercial energy requirements by 1985 will amount to about 120 million barrels-of-oil equivalent. The industrial sector will absorb 47.5%, in consonance with the industrial expansion program of the government. The share of transportation is expected to reach 26.6%, with the balance to be accounted for by the residential and commercial sectors (25.9%).Pursuant to the state's policy to achieve self-reliance in energy supply, national dependence on oil is programmed to decline from 87.9% in 1980 to 49.7% in 1985, as the expected energy demand is met by indigenous sources. Hydro, coal and geothermal power will substantially displace oil utilization, their share increasing from 12.1% in 1980 to 45.2% in 1985. In addition to domestic crude oil production, development of non-oil resources could realize for the Philippines a 56% self-sufficiency target by the end of 1985.A total financial package of $8.29 billion is required over the next five years to fully operationalize the target program. This corresponds to an average yearly requirement of $1.66 billion—the financial magnitude of this program underscores the premium attached to long-term national aspirations for energy self-reliance.     

我国发电行业面临的形势和发展道路研究

截至2011年底,我国发电设备容量已达105576×104kW,非化石能源装机比重合计为27.50%,较2005年提高3.3个百分点;平均供电煤耗330g/(kW.h),较2005年下降11%;线路损失率6.31%,较2005年下降0.87%。发电行业的整体经济性和环保性指标有了较大提升,电力结构通过调整已有了向好的转变势头。但是,火电机组装机容量仍占到70%以上,而其中60×104kW以上超临界参数机组仅占33%,无法满足可持续发展的要求。发电行业正面临着来自市场、资源、环保的压力以及运营的不可持续性、无法为投资者带来回报的挑战,发展与困难都将是长期的。在面临长期发展困难的同时,由于全球能源产业革命、政策支持力度的加大以及较为旺盛的电力需求,也使发电行业面临着难得的历史性机遇。我国发电行业必须加快经济发展方式转变,加大科技投入,促进结构调整,提高可再生能源、清洁能源发电比重,推广火力发电新技术,大力改善火电机组结构,向综合化集约化方向发展,全面风险防范并提升综合实力。只有如此,才能适应未来发电行业的发展要求和走向。     

Contributing to local policy making on GHG emission reduction through inventorying and attribution: A case study of Shenyang,China

Cities consumed 84% of commercial energy in China, which indicates cities should be the main areas for GHG emissions reduction. Our case study of Shenyang in this paper shows how a clear inventory analysis on GHG emissions at city level can help to identify the major industries and societal sectors for reduction efforts so as to facilitate low-carbon policy-making. The results showed total carbon emission in 2007 was 57 Mt CO₂ equivalents (CO₂e), of which 41 Mt CO₂e was in-boundary emissions and 16 Mt CO₂e was out-of-boundary emissions. The energy sector was dominant in the emission inventory, accounting for 93.1% of total emissions. Within energy sector, emissions from energy production industry, manufacturing and construction industry accounted for 88.4% of this sector. Our analysis showed that comparing with geographical boundary, setting system boundary based on single process standard could provide better information to decision makers for carbon emission reduction. After attributing electricity and heating consumption to final users, the resident and commercial sector became the largest emitter, accounting for 28.5% of total emissions. Spatial analysis of emissions showed that industrial districts such as Shenbei and Tiexi had the large potential to reduce their carbon emissions. Implications of results are finally discussed.     

An energy balance and greenhouse gas profile for county Wexford,Ireland in 2006

In this paper an energy balance and a greenhouse gas profile has been formulated for the county of Wexford, situated in the south east of Ireland. The energy balance aims to aggregate all energy consumption in the county for the year 2006 across the following sectors; residential, agriculture, commerce and industry, and transport. The results of the energy balance are compared with the previous energy balance of 2001 where it is found that the residential sector is the biggest emitter of CO₂ with 38% of total emissions with the transport and industry/commerce sectors sharing second place on 28%. Consumption of oil is seen to have increased significantly in nearly all sectors, accounting for over 70% of the total final energy consumed (TFC) while the total primary energy requirement (TPER) sees oil consumption accounting for 91% of all fuels consumed. To take into account the contribution of agriculture in total GHG emissions the gases CH₄ and N₂O will be estimated from the agricultural and waste sectors. The results show that methane contributes 25% of total GHG emissions with agriculture being the primary contributor accounting for 36% of total emissions.     

Exergoeconomic aspects of sectoral energy utilization for Turkish industrial sector and their impact on energy policies

This study deals with this thermo-economic analysis of energy utilization in the industrial sector (IS) towards establishing energy policies. The relations between capital costs and thermodynamic losses for subsectors in the IS are investigated. In the analysis, Turkey is taken as an application country based on its actual data over the period from 1990 to 2003. Energy and exergy analyses are performed for eight industrial modes, namely iron–steel, chemical–petrochemical, petrochemical–feedstock, cement, fertilizer, sugar, non-metal industry, other industry. The energy and exergy utilization efficiency values for the entire Turkish IS are obtained to range from 63.45% to 70.11%, and from 29.72% to 33.23%, respectively. The ratio of thermodynamic loss rate-to-capital cost values is also calculated to vary from 0.76 to 1.01.     

通过技术升级实现现代煤化工的产业升级探讨

按照《能源发展＂十二五＂规划》要求,＂十二五＂期间,我国煤炭深加工产业已经进入总结现有示范项目经验,并按照能量梯级利用、节能减排等要求稳步开展升级示范的新阶段。本文以我国现代煤化工产业为研究对象,探讨如何通过煤气化、多联产、动力岛优化配置等能量梯级利用先进技术,在兼顾公用工程动力供应可靠性要求的同时提高煤制烯烃等现代煤化工项目的整体能源转化效率,并探索一条既能满足我国当前最严厉环保与排放指导要求,又兼顾经济效益的产业升级新模式。研究认为,通过煤气化技术升级,优化配置动力岛及采用多联产等方案,满足国家对煤化工产业发展的全新要求并实现产业的健康可持续发展是可行的。     

A feasibility study of improved heat recovery and excess heat export at a Swedish chemical complex site

New ambitious targets for reduced greenhouse gas emissions and increased energy efficiency in industry and in the stationary energy sector provide incentives for industrial plants to investigate opportunities for substantially increasing recovery and use of excess heat from their operations. This work investigates the economic feasibility of recovering industrial excess heat at a Swedish chemical complex site for increased site internal heat recovery or export to a regional district heating (DH) network. The work is based on investment cost data estimated in previous work by the authors. A site‐wide heat collection and distribution system based on circulating hot water was envisioned, which is also connected to a regional DH network. With the help of multiobjective optimization, the optimal heat contributions from the individual plant sites were identified that minimize the total system cost for a large range of options involving different quantities of internally recovered heat and heat export to the DH system. A payback period analysis was conducted together with a risk assessment to take into account uncertainty regarding utility steam production cost and heat sale price. The results of the study indicate that a payback period of around 3 years can be achieved for a number of cases in which 30% to 50% of the total excess heat produced by the site plants is recovered. Although it seems more profitable to recover heat at the site rather than exporting heat to the DH system only, profitability appears to be maximized by hybrid solutions that allow a share of the excess heat to be sold to the DH system and some heat to be recovered at the site simultaneously.     

Energetic and exergetic performance evaluation of the quadruple-effect evaporator unit in tomato paste production

Quadruple-effect evaporator units are commonly used in food focus area in sector is evaporative unit. It consumes about 60% of total energy input. The present study evaluates the performance of quadruple-effect evaporator unit (QEEU) by using exergy analysis based on actual operational data. A tomato paste factory is chosen for the analysis. The highest exergy destruction/loss occurs in the first effect with 158.2 kW, 52.7% of exergy input in first effect. Steam temperature should be decreased in order to decrease exergy destruction in first effect. Also, third effect achieves the highest exergy efficiency with 93.3%. Exergetic improvement potential of each effect varies between 0.3 kW and 83.6 kW. The highest and lowest exergetic improvement potential occurs in first and third effect of QEEU system, respectively. Exergetic improvement potential is equals to 52.80%, 11.10%, 6.73% and 69.8% of exergy loss/destruction from the first effect to the last effect, respectively. Total exergetic improvement potential is achieved as 128 kW (55% of total exergy loss/destruction) in QEEU system. It is expected that analyses result provide important information for designer and/or resources of multiple effect evaporator unit.     

Enabling technologies for industrial energy demand management

This state-of-science review sets out to provide an indicative assessment of enabling technologies for reducing UK industrial energy demand and carbon emissions to 2050. In the short term, i.e. the period that will rely on current or existing technologies, the road map and priorities are clear. A variety of available technologies will lead to energy demand reduction in industrial processes, boiler operation, compressed air usage, electric motor efficiency, heating and lighting, and ancillary uses such as transport. The prospects for the commercial exploitation of innovative technologies by the middle of the 21st century are more speculative. Emphasis is therefore placed on the range of technology assessment methods that are likely to provide policy makers with a guide to progress in the development of high-temperature processes, improved materials, process integration and intensification, and improved industrial process control and monitoring. Key among the appraisal methods applicable to the energy sector is thermodynamic analysis, making use of energy, exergy and ‘exergoeconomic’ techniques. Technical and economic barriers will limit the improvement potential to perhaps a 30% cut in industrial energy use, which would make a significant contribution to reducing energy demand and carbon emissions in UK industry. Non-technological drivers for, and barriers to, the take-up of innovative, low-carbon energy technologies for industry are also outlined.     

The economics of hybrid power systems for sustainable desert agriculture in Egypt

Egypt has embarked on an ambitious desert land reclamation program in order to increase total food production. Energy planners for these desert agriculture locations have chosen diesel generation power technology because minimization of the initial capital cost of a power supply system is their top priority. This heavy reliance on diesel generation has negative effects on the surrounding environment including soil, groundwater, and air pollution. Although good solar and wind resource prospects exist for the use of cleaner hybrid power systems in certain desert locations, little research has been done to investigate the economic potential of such systems in Egypt’s desert agriculture sector. Using optimization software, we assess the economics of hybrid power systems versus the present diesel generation technology in a remote agricultural development area. We also consider the emission reduction advantages of using hybrid systems. Interestingly enough, optimization results show that hybrid systems are less costly than diesel generation from a net present cost perspective even with the high diesel fuel price subsidies. Since hybrids are also more environmentally friendly, they represent a strong step towards achieving sustainable desert agriculture.     

农村沼气转型升级机遇与对策

我国农村沼气经过多年的发展,已经具备了一定的产业基础和发展优势,成为促进现代农业发展的重要动力和实现农村节能减排的有效载体。结合当前农村经济社会的发展需求,分析现阶段农村沼气产业发展中矛盾,进一步研究、探索沼气转型与升级对策,促进沼气可持续发展。     

Interfuel substitution and energy consumption in the industrial sector

This paper examines the possibilities for fuel substitution in the industrial sector. First, we determine the total demand for fuel and power for the industrial sector from 1955 to 1972. We then examine fuel substitution possibilities for electricity and eight major fossil fuels consumed by the industrial sector. These are coal, natural gas, residual oil, distillate oil, kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas, still gas and petroleum coke. The analysis includes an estimation of the fuel split equations, the dynamic simulation of the industrial sector demands for fuel and the computation of short- and long-run demand elasticities for each fuel.