Long-term greenhouse gas emission and petroleum reduction goals: Evolutionary pathways for the light-duty vehicle sector

To meet long-term environmental and energy security goals, the United States must reduce petroleum use in the light-duty vehicle fleet by 70% and greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of ten compared to business-as-usual growth projections for the year 2050. A wedge-based approach was used to quantify the scope of the problem in real terms, and to develop options for meeting mid-century targets. Four mitigation mechanisms were considered: (1) improvements in near-term vehicle technologies; (2) emphasis on low-carbon biofuels; (3) de-carbonization of the electric grid; and (4) demand-side travel-reduction initiatives. Projections from previous studies were used to characterize the potential of individual mitigation mechanisms, which were then integrated into a light-duty vehicle fleet model; particular emphasis was given to systemic constraints on scale and rates of change.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation policies and the transportation sector: The role of feedback effects on policy effectiveness

The US transportation sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As such, policymakers and stakeholder groups have proposed a number of policy instruments aimed at reducing these emissions. In order to fully evaluate the effectiveness of these policies, policymakers must consider both the direct responses associated with policy actions, and the indirect responses that occur through complex relationships within socioeconomic systems. In cases where multiple policy instruments are employed, these indirect effects create policy interactions that are either complementary or competing; policymakers need to understand these interactions in order to leverage policy synergies and manage policy conflicts. Analysis of these indirect effects is particularly difficult in the transportation sector, where system boundaries are uncertain and feedback among systems components can be complicated. This paper begins to address this problem by applying systems dynamics tools (in particular causal loop diagrams) to help identify and understand the role of feedback effects on transportation-related GHG reduction policies. Policymakers can use this framework to qualitatively explore the impacts of various policy instruments, as well as identify important relationships that can be later included in quantitative modeling approaches.     

The challenge of meeting Canada’s greenhouse gas reduction targets

In 2007, the Government of Canada announced its medium- and long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction plan entitled Turning the Corner, proposed emission cuts of 20% below 2006 levels by 2020 and 60–70% below 2006 levels by 2050. A report from a Canadian government advisory organization, the National Round Table on Environment and Economy (NRTEE), Achieving 2050: A carbon pricing policy for Canada, recommended “fast and deep” energy pathways to emissions reduction through large-scale electrification of Canada’s economy by relying on a major expansion of hydroelectricity, adoption of carbon capture and storage for coal and natural gas, and increasing the use of nuclear.     

The strategy of energy-related carbon emission reduction in Shanghai

This paper presents a system analysis approach on carbon emission reduction at urban level, taking Shanghai as a case. Shanghai's current carbon emission was analyzed based on survey. The prospective carbon emission of Shanghai in 2010 and 2020 were estimated based on scenarios analysis. The main results are: (1) the primary energy consumption of Shanghai shows a continuously increasing trend in recent decades; (2) the energy consumption for production is where the majority of Shanghai's energy consumption is being used; (3) among the total energy consumed, secondary industry energy consumption occupies the biggest share; (4) computations indicate that Shanghai's current carbon emission steadily increased from 1990 to 2005 and reached 58.05 Mt C-eq in 2005, a factor of two times its 1990 emission; (5) if Shanghai can realistically meet the target of the 11th Five-Year Plan, the carbon emission reduction will reach to 17.26 and 111.04 Mt C-eq in 2010 and 2020, respectively, which represents a reduction of nearly 46% below its current growth trajectory in 2020. Based on these results, three strategic suggestions for developing low-carbon economy in Shanghai have been proposed, which can also be applied to other similar cities in China.     

Economic and energy impacts from participation in the regional greenhouse gas initiative: A case study of the State of Maryland

Tradable emissions allowance systems to reduce carbon emissions are increasingly promoted as means to mitigate climate change. This paper briefly reviews the application of such systems at the global, regional, and corporate scales. Given the recent expansion of cap-and-trade systems at the regional level, the paper concentrates on energy and economic implications at that level, using the decision of the State of Maryland, USA, to join the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative as an illustration. The paper presents the results of an analysis of the implications for technology choice, generation capacity, energy reliability, and cost to ratepayers of that decision, combining a national electricity market model with a regional model that includes market power and an economic impact model. The results suggest several issues that will be key to the acceptability and effectiveness of cap-and-trade systems for regional climate change mitigation policy, including rules for distribution of allowances and subsidies for energy efficiency programs.     

Prediction of greenhouse gas reduction potential in Japanese residential sector by residential energy end-use model

A model is developed that simulates nationwide energy consumption of the residential sector by considering the diversity of household and building types. Since this model can simulate the energy consumption for each household and building category by dynamic energy use based on the schedule of the occupants’ activities and a heating and cooling load calculation model, various kinds of energy-saving policies can be evaluated with considerable accuracy. In addition, the average energy efficiency of major electric appliances used in the residential sector and the percentages of housing insulation levels of existing houses is predicted by the “stock transition model.” In this paper, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the Japanese residential sector until 2025 are predicted. For example, as a business – as-usual (BAU) case, CO₂ emissions will be reduced by 7% from the 1990 level. Also evaluated are mitigation measures such as the energy efficiency standard for home electric appliances, thermal insulation code, reduction of standby power, high-efficiency water heaters, energy-efficient behavior of occupants, and dissemination of photovoltaic panels.     

The importance of marginal cost electricity pricing to the success of greenhouse gas reduction programs

The efficient reduction of GHG emissions requires appropriate retail pricing of off-peak electricity. However, off-peak electricity for residential consumers is priced at 331% above its marginal cost in the United States as a whole (June 2009). Even for the 1% of residences that are on some form of time-of-use (TOU) rate schedule, the off-peak rate is almost three times higher than the marginal cost. A barrier to marginal-cost based TOU rates is that less than 9% of U.S. households have the “smart” meters in place that can measure and record the time of consumption. Policies should be put in place to achieve full deployment. Another important barrier is consumer concern about TOU rate design. Two TOU rate designs (baseline and two-part tariff) are described that utilize marginal-cost based rates, ensure appropriate cost recovery, and minimize bill changes from current rate structures. A final barrier is to get residences on to these rates. Should a marginal-cost based TOU rate design remain an alternative for which residences could “opt-in,” or become the default choice, or become mandatory? Time-invariant rates are a historical anachronism that subsidize very costly peak-period consumption and penalize off-peak usage to our environmental detriment. They should be phased out.     

Intra-union flexibility of non-ETS emission reduction obligations in the European Union

The EU proposal on greenhouse gas emission reduction has 28 targets for 2020: an EU-wide one for CO₂ emissions covered by the European Trading System (ETS), and one target for non-ETS emissions per Member State. Implementation is more expensive than needed. I consider three alternative proposals to reduce costs. In the Irish proposal, Member States can purchase ETS permits to offset excess non-ETS emissions. In the Polish proposal, Member States can sell excess non-ETS emissions in the ETS. In the Swedish proposal, Member States can trade their non-ETS allocations. I compare these alternatives to the default policy (no flexibility outside the ETS) and the cost-effective solution (full flexibility). I calibrate a simple model to the results of the EU impact assessment, which did not disclose all details and made odd assumptions. The non-ETS allocation exceeds the projected emissions for three Member States. The alternative flexibility mechanisms would be used to only a limited extent, but would cut the costs of meeting the target. The Swedish and Polish proposals come closest to the cost-effective solution because of the hot air. The Irish proposal performs best if there are negative surprises in either abatement costs or emissions. The Swedish proposal will become policy.     

Climate modelling with endogenous technical change: Stochastic learning and optimal greenhouse gas abatement in the PAGE2002 model

This paper looks at the impact of ETC on the costs and benefits of different abatement strategies using a modified version of the PAGE2002 model. It was found that for most standard abatement paths there would be an initial “learning investment” required that would substantially reduce the unit costs of CO₂ abatement as compared to a business as usual scenario. Furthermore, optimising an abatement program where ETC has been included leads to an increase in cost uncertainty during the period of widespread CO₂ abatements due to our lack of knowledge of the learning investments involved. Finally, the inclusion of ETC leads to a slightly deferred optimised abatement path followed by a rapid abatement program. Together, the results draw attention to the possibilities of ‘uncovering uncertainty’ through proactive abatements. ‘Learning about learning’ could become an important consideration for any plan to optimise future abatements.     

The role of technology development in greenhouse gas emissions reduction: The case of Finland

This paper presents results from a total of 27 projects from the Finnish CLIMTECH technology program. These were used to investigate the prospects of greenhouse gas-mitigation technologies under Finnish conditions, including all emissions sources and all Kyoto gases. The estimated impacts of climate change on the energy system were also taken into account in the analysis. Systematic investments in technology development were found to yield substantial benefits in the long term by decreasing emissions reduction costs and by facilitating more ambitious reduction targets. Advanced biofuel production and utilization technologies, as well as offshore wind power, have proved to have the largest potential by the 2030s. Results also indicated a clear relationship between technological development and national emissions-trading patterns.     

Energy intensity and greenhouse gas emission of a purchase in the retail park service sector: An integrative approach

The aim of this paper is to describe the energetic metabolism of a retail park service system under an integrative approach. Energy flow accounting was applied to a case study retail park in Spain, representative of the sector across Europe, after redefining the functional unit to account for both direct energy use (buildings, gardens and outdoor lighting) and indirect energy use (employee and customer transportation). A life cycle assessment (LCA) was then undertaken to determine energy global warming potential (GWP) and some energy intensity and greenhouse gases (GHG) emission indicators were defined and applied. The results emphasise the importance of service systems in global warming policies, as a potential emission of 9.26 kg CO₂/purchase was obtained for the case study, relating to a consumption of 1.64 KOE of energy, of which 21.9% was spent on buildings and 57.9% on customer transportation. Some strategies to reduce these emissions were considered: increased supply, energy efficiency, changes in distribution of modes of transport, changes in location and changes in the mix of land uses. A combination of all of these elements in a new retail park could reduce GHG emissions by more than 50%, as it is planning strategies, which seem to be the most effective.     

Determining marginal electricity for near-term plug-in and fuel cell vehicle demands in California: Impacts on vehicle greenhouse gas emissions

California has taken steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. One example is the recent adoption of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which aims to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels. To effectively implement this and similar policies, it is necessary to understand well-to-wheels emissions associated with distinct vehicle and fuel platforms, including those using electricity. This analysis uses an hourly electricity dispatch model to simulate and investigate operation of the current California grid and its response to added vehicle and fuel-related electricity demands in the near term. The model identifies the “marginal electricity mix” - the mix of power plants that is used to supply the incremental electricity demand from vehicles and fuels - and calculates greenhouse gas emissions from those plants. It also quantifies the contribution from electricity to well-to-wheels greenhouse gas emissions from battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles and explores sensitivities of electricity supply and emissions to hydro-power availability, timing of electricity demand (including vehicle recharging), and demand location within the state. The results suggest that the near-term marginal electricity mix for vehicles and fuels in California will come from natural gas-fired power plants, including a significant fraction (likely as much as 40%) from relatively inefficient steam- and combustion-turbine plants. The marginal electricity emissions rate will be higher than the average rate from all generation - likely to exceed 600 gCO₂ equiv. kWh⁻¹ during most hours of the day and months of the year - and will likely be more than 60% higher than the value estimated in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard. But despite the relatively high fuel carbon intensity of marginal electricity in California, alternative vehicle and fuel platforms still reduce emissions compared to conventional gasoline vehicles and hybrids, through improved vehicle efficiency.     

沼气技术的减排效果与CDM项目合格性探讨

清洁发展机制（CDM）是《京都议定书》确定的三个灵活履约机制之一，如何充分了解和有效利用该机制促进我国可持续发展是一个需要深入研究的问题。介绍了大中型沼气工程与农村户用沼气池对温室气体减排的效果，对两者作为CDM项目的合格性问题进行了分析，重点探讨了其额外性问题，最后对CDM项目可能带来的经济效益、先进技术转移机遇进行了展望，并给出了一些建议。     

Energy and economic growth in industrializing countries: The case of Greece

This paper investigates some aspects of the interrelated paths of economic growth and energy demand, in the case of an industrializing economy, through the use of numerous econometric models. Translog functions have helped establish that income and price elasticities of energy, two critical parameters in the energy– economy interaction, exhibit falling trends with time. The value share of the industrial sector is strongly associated with both energy demand and energy intensity. Any increase in the former will lead to amplified increases in the latter, rendering the continuation of past trends in industrial expansion questionable under conditions of high energy costs. Substitution among capital, labour and energy does take place, though to a limited extent, as indicated by the aggregate measure of energy/non-energy substitution elasticity. All findings appear to suggest that energy policymaking, in an industrializing country like Greece, will be of low effectiveness until certain structural changes in the economy are realized.     

Climate policies for road transport revisited (I): Evaluation of the current framework

The global rise of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and its potentially devastating consequences require a comprehensive regulatory framework for reducing emissions, including those from the transport sector. Alternative fuels and technologies have been promoted as a means for reducing the carbon intensity of the transport sector. However, the overall transport policy framework in major world economies is geared towards the use of conventional fossil fuels. This paper evaluates the effectiveness and efficiency of current climate policies for road transport that (1) target fuel producers and/or car manufacturers, and (2) influence use of alternative fuels and technologies. With diversifying fuel supply chains, carbon intensity of fuels and energy efficiency of vehicles cannot be regulated by a single instrument. We demonstrate that vehicles are best regulated across all fuels in terms of energy per distance. We conclude that price-based policies and a cap on total emissions are essential for alleviating rebound effects and perverse incentives of fuel efficiency standards and low carbon fuel standards. In tandem with existing policy tools, cap and price signal policies incentivize all emissions reduction options. Design and effects of cap and trade in the transport sector are investigated in the companion article (Flachsland et al., in this issue).     

Making an impact: The influence of policies to reduce emissions from aviation on the business travel patterns of individual corporations

The contribution of aviation to global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions is projected to triple by 2050. As nations strive to meet CO₂ reduction targets, policy interventions to manage the growth of emissions arising from air travel are likely. Here, we investigate the potential influence of aviation emissions reduction policies on the business travel patterns of individual corporations. Using travel data from six UK-based companies, we find that increased ticket prices can deliver substantial emissions cuts, particularly on premium class flights, and may provide strong financial incentives to seek modal and/or technological alternatives to flying. We also find that corporations from different business sectors vary in their responsiveness to a range of policy options. Finally, we examine questionnaire data to determine whether companies more broadly are going beyond compliance to mitigate their environmental impact by managing travel-related emissions voluntarily. Although many corporations are measuring and reporting emissions, only a limited number are willing to implement in-house reduction policies prior to regulation.     

Regional model of EKC for air pollution: Evidence from the Republic of Korea

This study aims to investigate a relationship between economic development and air pollution at the regional level, and further suggest energy policies for climate change mitigation. The present study examines an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis analyzing annual panel data of 16 metropolitan regions in Korea over a 16-year time period. The analysis results show that there is no one-dominant shape of EKC for SO₂ and NO₂; each region has its own EKC. That is, although we find the potential existence of U-shaped and N-shaped curves, the region-specific coefficients are enormously heterogeneous across regions. For CO, on the other hand, the random coefficient model shows that there is a dominant U-shaped curve across regions. In addition, energy consumption appears to be the most significant variable in explaining air pollution. Based on these results, we assert that environmental policy should consider the different characteristics of each region and type of pollutant.     

Assessment of energy efficiency measures: The case of the Lebanese energy sector

This paper examines in detail the electric energy sector in Lebanon on the levels of both the supply and end‐use sides. The aim of the study is to assess the feasibility of implementing some energy efficiency options in the country. For this purpose, baseline scenarios will be first developed to examine the effects of government policies with regard to the energy balance, and then energy efficiency scenarios will be built for the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. Feasible options will be highlighted and recommendations to remove barriers hindering the fast penetration of energy efficiency programmes in the Lebanese energy sector will be provided. Throughout the analysis, uncertainties related to factors such as discount rates, demand growth and technology penetration rates will be treated by defining lower and upper bounds on their variations, and will be accommodated through scenario‐type analysis. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

促进我国自愿碳减排市场发展的对策

评析自愿碳减排市场在国内发展的基本状况。解析我国自愿碳减排市场发展缓慢的主要因素,并提出了未来深入推进我国环境自愿碳减排项目建设的激励政策及创新建议。工业企业实施自愿碳减排已成为国际环境政策发展的潮流和趋势,是促进我国企业自愿碳减排的根本途径。工业企业自愿碳减排项目能否顺利实施,在很大程度上取决于企业内部节能低碳管理系统是否到位。最后提出工业企业实施自愿碳减排项目的方案。     

The economic case for low-carbon development in rapidly growing developing world cities: A case study of Palembang,Indonesia

Where costs or risks are higher, evidence is lacking or supporting institutions are less developed, policymakers can struggle to make the case for low-carbon investment. This is especially the case in developing world cities where decision-makers struggle to keep up with the pace and scale of change. Focusing on Palembang in Indonesia, this paper considers the economic case for proactive investment in low-carbon development. We find that a rapidly growing industrial city in a developing country can reduce emissions by 24.1% in 2025, relative to business as usual levels, with investments of USD405.6 million that would reduce energy expenditure in the city by USD436.8 million. Emissions from the regional grid could be reduced by 12.2% in 2025, relative to business as usual trends, with investments of USD2.9 billion that would generate annual savings of USD175 million. These estimates understate the savings from reduced expenditure on energy subsidies and energy infrastructure. The compelling economic case for mainstreaming climate mitigation in this developing country city suggests that the constraints on climate action can be political and institutional rather than economic. There is therefore a need for more effective energy governance to drive the transition to a low-carbon economy.