Prioritizing towards a green export portfolio for India: An environmental input–output approach

Proponents of free trade have often hailed international trade as an engine of economic growth. However, the foreign trade sector, like many other sectors in developing countries, frequently involves these countries walking a tightrope between their developmental objectives and environmental goals. In this regard, prioritizing for developing a ‘green’ yet internationally competitive export portfolio provides a quintessential win–win solution to the problem. This study factors in both environmental benignity (indicated by total CO₂ emission intensity) as well as trade competitiveness (indicated by revealed comparative advantage index) in identifying the ‘ideal’ Indian export portfolio. The analysis calculates the level of direct and indirect emissions from the foreign trade sector (exports and imports) using the environmental input–output (EIO) matrix for 2003/04 for India that has been jointly developed by researchers from Keio University, Japan, and The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), New Delhi. The derived basket is compared to the current portfolio to estimate the potential saving from compositional changes and to suggest directions for policymaking to emphasize or de-emphasize the export of certain categories of exports.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city,China

To assess the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures, a detailed Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is developed and applied to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in Xiamen city. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies in relation to the development of Xiamen city. The ‘Business as Usual’ scenario assumes that the government will do nothing to influence the long-term trends of urban energy demand. An ‘Integrated’ scenario, on the other hand, is generated to assess the cumulative impact of a series of available reduction measures: clean energy substitution, industrial energy conservation, combined heat and power generation, energy conservation in building, motor vehicle control, and new and renewable energy development and utilization. The reduction potentials in energy consumption and GHG emissions are estimated for a time span of 2007–2020 under these different scenarios. The calculation results in Xiamen show that the clean energy substitution measure is the most effective in terms of energy saving and GHG emissions mitigation, while the industrial sector has the largest abatement potential.     

Consumer–supplier–government triangular relations: Rethinking the UK policy path for carbon emissions reduction from the UK residential sector

The UK residential (household) sector is responsible for approximately 30% of total carbon dioxide emissions and is often seen as the most promising in terms of early reductions. As most direct household emissions come from only two fuel sources, this paper critically examines how existing emissions reduction policies for the sector shape – and are shaped by – relations between the three main groups of actor in this policy domain: central government, gas and electricity suppliers, and energy users. Focusing on relations between three dyads (government–suppliers, suppliers–consumers and consumers–government) enables us to examine aspects of demand reduction that have often been overlooked to date. By ‘relations’ we refer to services, power relationships and flows of capital and information, as well as less easily defined elements such as loyalty, trust and accountability. The paper argues that the chosen government policy path to deliver demand reduction, which heavily emphasises the suppliers’ role, suffers from principal-agent problems, fails to align consumers and supplier interests toward emissions reduction, and does not yet portray a lower-carbon future in positive terms. It suggests that more attention should be paid to government–consumer relations, recognising that energy consumers are also citizens.     

Prediction of greenhouse gas reduction potential in Japanese residential sector by residential energy end-use model

A model is developed that simulates nationwide energy consumption of the residential sector by considering the diversity of household and building types. Since this model can simulate the energy consumption for each household and building category by dynamic energy use based on the schedule of the occupants’ activities and a heating and cooling load calculation model, various kinds of energy-saving policies can be evaluated with considerable accuracy. In addition, the average energy efficiency of major electric appliances used in the residential sector and the percentages of housing insulation levels of existing houses is predicted by the “stock transition model.” In this paper, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the Japanese residential sector until 2025 are predicted. For example, as a business – as-usual (BAU) case, CO₂ emissions will be reduced by 7% from the 1990 level. Also evaluated are mitigation measures such as the energy efficiency standard for home electric appliances, thermal insulation code, reduction of standby power, high-efficiency water heaters, energy-efficient behavior of occupants, and dissemination of photovoltaic panels.     

Comparison of CO2 emission scenarios and mitigation opportunities in China's five sectors in 2020

This study has been created in order to better inform climate policy recommendations for China through the study of emissions reduction potential and mitigation opportunities in the major emission sectors in the country. The LEAP model along with three scenarios has been employed in this study. The study has projected that under all scenarios, China's emissions in major sectors will increase. However, through the current sustainable development strategy and even more aggressive emission reduction policies, an annual average of 201–486 million metric tons (MMT) of emissions could be reduced. The cost analysis shows that opportunities are available to achieve significant additional emission reductions at reasonable rates. Besides the results on mitigation opportunities in each sector, this research also explores sectoral preference when determining policies from different perspectives. This study concludes that China's “unilateral actions” since 2000 should be recognized and encouraged. If further emission reduction were required, sector-based mitigation policies would be a very good option and selecting proper policy-making perspective(s) and identifying the most cost-effective mitigation measures within sector and across sectors would be the key information needed to devise these policies.     

Germany's path towards nearly zero-energy buildings—Enabling the greenhouse gas mitigation potential in the building stock

On 19 May 2010, the European Union adopted a Directive stipulating that by the end of 2020, Member States must ensure that all newly constructed buildings consume ‘nearly zero’ energy. In Germany, drastic reductions of energy demand for space heating have already become a policy target over the last decade, both for new and existing dwellings. In this article, we evaluate the impact of past and future policies on the development of buildings with a very high energy performance (VHEP) and on their primary energy demand and emissions. These dwellings account for 4% of all dwellings which have been constructed since 2001 and 1% of the total building stock. We have defined different policy scenarios, all of which assume a gradual increase of requirements for new and existing buildings and a continuation of the support policies that stimulate both new constructions and ambitious refurbishments. In the most ambitious scenario, the proportion of VHEP dwellings will increase by up to 30% of the total stock in 2020 and the share of nearly zero and zero-energy dwellings will then make up 6%. This will lead to emission reductions of over 50% of the 1990 level and primary energy reductions of 25% compared with today.     

Towards a low-carbon future in China's building sector—A review of energy and climate models forecast

This article investigates the potentials of energy saving and greenhouse gases emission mitigation offered by implementation of building energy efficiency policies in China. An overview of existing literature regarding long-term energy-demand and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission forecast scenarios is presented. Energy consumption in buildings could be reduced by 100–300 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2030 compared with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which means that 600–700 million metric tons of CO₂ emissions could be saved by implementing appropriate energy policies within an adapted institutional framework. The main energy-saving potentials in buildings can be achieved by improving a building's thermal performance and district heating system efficiency. The analyses also reveal that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of penetration. Our analysis on the reviewed models suggests that more ambitious efficiency improvement policies in both supply- and demand-side as well as the carbon price should be taken into account in the policy scenarios to address drastic reduction of CO₂ emission in the building sector to ensure climate security over the next decades.     

How can China reach its CO2 intensity reduction targets by 2020? A regional allocation based on equity and development

In late 2009, the Chinese government committed to cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 40% to 45% of 2005 levels by 2020. This has raised the issue of how to allocate the CO₂ reduction target regionally to meet the national reduction target. To meet this objective, the following aspects may be taken into consideration: equity principles, ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’; intensity reduction target fulfillment; and economic difference and reduction potential among provinces. This paper selects per capita GDP, accumulated fossil fuel related CO₂ emissions and energy consumption per unit of industrial added value as indicators for emission reduction capacity, responsibility and potential, respectively. Based on these three indicators, a comprehensive index is developed and an intensity allocation model constructed. As decision makers may have different preferences when allocating the reduction burden, we allocate different weights to the indicators, analyzing the results using cluster analysis. The following aspects may also be considered together with the national regional development strategy to determine how to share the burden: the reduction potential of various regions; implementation potential of the plans; and promotion of a highly efficient low carbon economic development model.     

Integrated evaluation of radiative heating systems for residential buildings

Based on the need to reduce CO₂ emissions and minimize energy dependency, the EU Member States have set ambitious energy policies goals and have developed respective, specific regulations, in order to improve the energy performance of the building sector. Thus, specific measures regarding the buildings’ envelope, the use of efficient HVAC technologies and the integration of renewable energy systems are being constantly studied and promoted. The effective combination of these three main aspects will consequently result in maximum energy efficiency. Germany has played a key role in this development, with intensive work focusing in the improvement of the energy behaviour of the residential building stock. In this paper, the use of radiative heating systems placing special emphasis on infrared is being studied as part of the energy renovation of residential buildings from the 1970’s. This is done by applying an integrated assessment model to evaluate specific interventions regarding the improvement of the energy behaviour of the buildings’ envelope and the use of radiative heating systems, based on a thorough Life Cycle Analysis according to criteria of energy, economic and environmental performance, as well as thermal comfort.     

Revisiting the case for intensity targets: Better incentives and less uncertainty for developing countries

In the debate on post-Kyoto global climate policy, intensity targets, which set a maximum amount of emissions per GDP, figure as prominent alternative to Kyoto-style absolute emission targets, especially for developing countries. This paper re-examines the case for intensity targets by critically assessing several of its properties, namely (i) reduction of cost-uncertainty, (ii) reduction of ‘hot air’, (iii) compatibility with international emissions trading, (iv) incentive to decouple carbon emissions and economic output (decarbonization), and, (v) use as a substitute for banking/borrowing. Relying on simple analytical models, it is shown that the effect on cost-uncertainty is ambiguous and depends on parameter values, and that the same holds for the risk of ‘hot air’; that the intensity target distorts international emissions trading; that despite potential asymmetries in the choice of abatement technology between absolute and intensity target, the incentive for a lasting transformation of the energy system is not necessarily stronger under the latter; and, finally, that only a well-working intensity target could substitute banking/borrowing to some extent—but also vice versa. Overall, the results suggest that due to the increased complexity and the potentially only modest benefits of an intensity target, absolute targets remain a robust choice for a cautious policy maker.     

Getting ready for carbon capture and storage through a ‘CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) Ready Hub’: A case study of Shenzhen city in Guangdong province, China

China has been building approximately 1 GW of new coal-fired power plant per week since 2005. Power plants now in construction may continue to operate until 2040. “CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) Ready” enables and eases the subsequent retrofitting of a plant to be able to capture carbon dioxide later in that plant’s lifetime. Building on the definitions of the IEA GHG (IEA Greenhouse Gas Programme) and GCCSI (Global Carbon Capture and Storage Institute), this study suggests a novel concept ‘CCS Ready Hub’ for implementing CCS Ready. A CCS Ready Hub not only includes a number of new coal-fired power plants but also integrates other existing stationary carbon dioxide emissions sources into the planning for potential infrastructure. We conducted a case study of Guangdong province in China with a detailed engineering and economic assessment in Shenzhen City. The study first reviewed the potential storage sites and analysed the existing stationary emissions sources in Guangdong using a GIS (Geographic Information System) approach. Thereafter, we focused on investigating the economic benefits of a ‘CCS Ready Hub’ at a potential 4 GW new USCPC (ultra-supercritical pulverised coal-fired) power plant in Shenzhen. Using the cost of carbon dioxide avoidance in 2020 as a criterion, we found that the concept of a CCS Ready Hub to finance CCS Ready at a regional planning level rather than at an individual plant is preferred since it significantly reduces the overall cost of building an integrated CCS system to reduce carbon emissions in the future.     

Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector

Rapid growth of road vehicles, private vehicles in particular, has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand and imports, which has been widely accepted as a major factor effecting future oil availability and prices, and a major contributor to China's GHG emission increase. This paper is intended to analyze the future trends of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector and to assess the effectiveness of possible reduction measures. A detailed model has been developed to derive a reliable historical trend of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector between 2000 and 2005 and to project future trends. Two scenarios have been designed to describe the future strategies relating to the development of China's road transport sector. The ‘Business as Usual’ scenario is used as a baseline reference scenario, in which the government is assumed to do nothing to influence the long-term trends of road transport energy demand. The ‘Best Case’ scenario is considered to be the most optimized case where a series of available reduction measures such as private vehicle control, fuel economy regulation, promoting diesel and gas vehicles, fuel tax and biofuel promotion, are assumed to be implemented. Energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector up to 2030 are estimated in these two scenarios. The total reduction potentials in the ‘Best Case’ scenario and the relative reduction potentials of each measure have been estimated.     

How ambitious are China and India’s emissions intensity targets?

Several developing economies have announced carbon emissions targets for 2020 as part of the negotiating process for a post-Kyoto climate policy regime. China and India’s commitments are framed as reductions in the emissions intensity of the economy by 40–45% and 20–25%, respectively, between 2005 and 2020. How feasible are the proposed reductions in emissions intensity for China and India, and how do they compare with the targeted reductions in the US and the EU? In this paper, we use a stochastic frontier model of energy intensity to decompose energy intensity into the effects of input and output mix, climate, and a residual technology variable. We use the model to produce emissions projections for China and India under a number of scenarios regarding the pace of technological change and changes in the share of non-fossil energy. We find that China is likely to need to adopt ambitious carbon mitigation policies in order to achieve its stated target, and that its targeted reductions in emissions intensity are on par with those implicit in the US and EU targets. India’s target is less ambitious and might be met with only limited or even no dedicated mitigation policies.     

Climate policies in a second-best world—A case study on India

The aim of this article is to analyze the potential for synergies between climate policies and development in a case study on India focusing on the power sector sub-optimalities. To do so, we use Imaclim-R, a dynamic recursive energy–economy model that represents a second best world with market imperfections and short-run adjustments constraints along a long-term growth path. The analysis suggests (i) global carbon pricing induces prohibitive macroeconomic costs for the Indian economy, even in the case of significant financial transfers associated with a global cap-and-trade system and a ‘Contraction and Convergence in 2100’ allocation scheme and (ii) the most cost efficient climate policies are not uniform carbon pricing only. The implementation of domestic policies suited to the national context, for instance targeting sub-optimalities in the power sector for India, allows reducing significantly the macroeconomic costs induced by international mitigation policies.     

German and Norwegian policy approach to residential buildings’ energy efficiency—a comparative assessment

Buildings in private and domestic use are responsible for about 30% of the global greenhouse gas emissions attributable mainly to their need for heating and cooling energy. This corresponds to about 40% of the global final energy consumption. Therefore, a viable implementation of building energy efficiency policies is inevitable to realize a transformation of the energy system to mitigate climate change. Within the building sector lies a huge potential for emission reduction consisting in the renovation of the existing building stock and climate-friendly building guidelines applicable to new constructions, both adapting CO₂-neutral technology solutions. However, as there are several different pathways leading to a decarbonized energy system, there is always the question which political and technological solutions are most efficient, effective, and feasible. This paper aims to analyze building efficiency policy measures and instruments and the related technological solutions in two front-runner countries of the energy transition, possessing different structural conditions: Germany and Norway. We hence apply a comparative approach which allows us to present and assess the policies in place. The paper answers three research questions: (1) Which policies prevail in Germany and Norway to foster the deployment of energy efficient and decarbonized solutions for residential buildings? (2) How do these policies respond to country-specific barriers to the energy transition in the building sector, and (3) What effects do they have on the actual implementation of technological and societal solutions? This research provides a new insight to the highly relevant topic of energy efficiency in buildings in the context of international Intended Nationally Determined Contribution benchmarking and discusses some unsolved trade-offs in the translation of the global climate governance into the national building sector.     

Modelling the potential to achieve deep carbon emission cuts in existing UK social housing: The case of Peabody

As part of the UK’s effort to combat climate change, deep cuts in carbon emissions will be required from existing housing over the coming decades. The viability of achieving such emission cuts for the UK social housing sector has been explored through a case study of Peabody, a housing association operating in London. Various approaches to stock refurbishment were modelled for Peabody’s existing stock up to the year 2030, incorporating insulation, communal heating and micro-generation technologies. Outputs were evaluated under four future socio-economic scenarios. The results indicate that the Greater London Authority’s target of a 60% carbon emission cut by 2025 can be achieved if extensive stock refurbishment is coupled with a background of wider societal efforts to reduce carbon emissions. The two key external requirements identified are a significant reduction in the carbon intensity of grid electricity and a stabilisation or reduction in householder demand for energy. A target of achieving zero net carbon emissions across Peabody stock by 2030 can only be achieved if grid electricity becomes available from entirely zero-carbon sources. These results imply that stronger action is needed from both social landlords and Government to enable deep emission cuts to be achieved in UK social housing.     

Does the Gold Standard label hold its promise in delivering higher Sustainable Development benefits? A multi-criteria comparison of CDM projects

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has a twin objective: to help developed countries reduce GHG emissions, and to support developing countries in achieving Sustainable Development (SD). As a response to the widespread criticism of the CDM's unsatisfactory SD record, initiatives have developed premium labels like the Gold Standard, which applies two additional ‘screens’ to filter CDM projects for higher SD benefits. In order to determine whether Gold Standard projects can be associated with higher local SD benefits, this paper evaluates the potential benefits of 48 CDM projects using a multi-criteria method and building on existing work. The 18 evaluated Gold Standard projects are compared to a ‘representative portfolio’ of 30 unlabeled CDM projects in order to capture the ‘full’ effect of the additional Gold Standard requirements, which is further decomposed into the two ‘screen’ effects. The results suggest that Gold Standard Certified Emission Reductions can be associated with higher potential local SD benefits when compared to the ‘representative portfolio’ of unlabeled CDM projects, while the comparison of projects of the same type remains inconclusive. The results support previous findings showing that renewable energy projects may deliver comparatively high SD benefits.     

Cost of energy and environmental policy in Portuguese CO2 abatement—scenario analysis to 2020

This paper quantifies the contribution of Portuguese energy policies for total and marginal abatement costs (MAC) for CO₂ emissions for 2020. The TIMES_PT optimisation model was used to derive MAC curves from a set of policy scenarios including one or more of the following policies: ban on nuclear power; ban on new coal power plants without carbon sequestration and storage; incentives to natural gas power plants; and a cap on biomass use. The different MAC shows the policies’ effects in the potential for CO₂ abatement. In 2020, in the most encompassing policy scenario, with all current and planned policies, is possible to abate only up to +35% of 1990 emissions at a cost below 23 € t/CO₂. In the more flexible policy scenarios, it is possible to abate up to −10% of 1990 emissions below the same cost. The total energy system costs are 10–13% higher if all policies are implemented—76 to 101 B€—roughly the equivalent to 2.01–2.65% of the 2005 GDP. Thus, from a CO₂ emission mitigation perspective, the existing policies introduce significant inefficiencies, possibly related to other policy goals. The ban on nuclear power is the instrument that has the most significant effect in MAC.     

Exploring the ancillary benefits of the Kyoto Protocol for air pollution in Europe

An integrated approach to climate change and regional air pollution can harvest considerable ancillary benefits in terms of environmental impacts and costs. This is because both problems are caused to a large extent by the same activity (fossil fuel combustion). Substantial ancillary benefits were found for regional air pollution (SO₂, NO_x, VOC and particulate matter) of implementing the Kyoto Protocol (intended to control greenhouse gas emissions) in Europe. For instance, while three different scenarios on Kyoto implementation were found to reduce European CO₂ emissions by 4–7%, they also reduced European emissions of SO₂ by 5–14% compared with a no Kyoto policies case. The magnitude of ancillary benefits depends on how flexible mechanisms and surplus emission allowances are used in meeting the Kyoto targets. The total cost savings for implementing current policies for regional air pollution of the Kyoto Protocol are of an order of 2.5–7 billion Euro. In all cases, this is in the order of half the costs of the climate policy (4–12 billion Euro). Using flexible mechanisms reduces emissions of air pollutants for Europe as a whole even further than domestic implementation (e.g. 10–14% versus 5% for SO₂ emissions), but the reductions are shifted from Western Europe to Central and Eastern Europe and Russia. The use of surplus emission allowances to achieve the Kyoto targets decreases the ancillary benefits, in particular for the latter group of countries (e.g. unprotected area against acidification increases from 1.3 to 1.7 million ha).     

Energy and greenhouse gas balance of the use of forest residues for bioenergy production in the UK

Life cycle analysis is used to assess the energy requirements and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with extracting UK forest harvesting residues for use as a biomass resource. Three forest harvesting residues were examined (whole tree thinnings, roundwood and brash bales), and each have their own energy and emission profile. The whole forest rotation was examined, including original site establishment, forest road construction, biomass harvesting during thinning and final clear-fell events, chipping and transportation. Generally, higher yielding sites give lower GHG emissions per ‘oven dried tonne’ (ODT) forest residues, but GHG emissions ‘per hectare’ are higher as more biomass is extracted. Greater quantities of biomass, however, ultimately mean greater displacement of conventional fuels and therefore greater potential for GHG emission mitigation. Although forest road construction and site establishment are “one off” events they are highly energy-intensive operations associated with high diesel fuel consumption, when placed in context with the full forest rotation, however, their relative contributions to the overall energy requirements and GHG emissions are small. The lower bulk density of wood chips means that transportation energy requirements and GHG emissions are higher compared with roundwood logs and brash bales, suggesting that chipping should occur near the end-user of application.