Ecological tax reform in Germany: handling two hot potatoes at the same time

Combining environmental with employment objectives, ecological tax reform (ETR) envisages a double dividend. While research has mainly focused on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of ETR, there is less literature on the social responses. This paper gives an overview and history of German ETR as well as investigating the understanding of perceptions and attitudes towards ETR of those being “subject to tax”. The research is based on qualitative social research methods. As with the other PETRAS papers, interviews were conducted with policy-makers and business leaders and focus groups were formed with lay persons. The results show that responses of policy-makers and business leaders are modest. Although some criticisms about the specific design of the German ETR remain, complaints towards ETR are settled. Attitudes appear influenced by more fundamental convictions such as economic interest or altruistic views. In contrast, ETR appears to politicise common people. Attitudes are influenced by the overall comprehension of the ETR concept, the expected impacts, perceived information deficits, as well as a general distrust in politics. Our data show that the linking of environmental and employment objectives is not understood and not welcomed. In order to increase social acceptance, the paper discusses refocusing ETR on environmental objectives, modestly increasing the share of ETR revenue spent for environmental purposes, removing inconsistencies in the ETR design, and improving information policy.     

Distributional effects of a carbon tax on car fuels in France

This paper analyses the distributional effects of alternative scenarios of carbon taxes on car fuels using disaggregated French panel data from 2003 to 2006. It incorporates household price responsiveness that differs across income groups into a consumer surplus measure of tax burden. Carbon taxation is regressive before revenue recycling. However, taking into account the benefits from congestion reduction induced by the tax mitigates regressivity. We show also that recycling additional revenues from the carbon tax either in equal amounts to each household or according to household size makes poorest households better off.     

Output-based allocations and revenue recycling: Implications for the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme

The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) is more comprehensive in its coverage of emissions than schemes introduced or proposed to date in any other country in that it includes agricultural greenhouse gases, which account for half of New Zealand’s total emissions. But, motivated by concerns for the international competitiveness of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed industrial and agricultural activities, current legislation provides for substantial ongoing free allocations to such activities, linked to their output. Here we use a computable general equilibrium model to analyse the impacts of output-based allocation, given the possibility of recycling net revenues to reduce prior distorting taxes. Unlike previous modelling studies of alternative NZ ETS designs, we allow for a more realistic modelling both of capital and labour supply. We find that, as suggested by theoretical results, interactions between the ETS and existing taxes are important. Given any level of output-based allocation, the negative macroeconomic impacts can be reduced by recycling net revenues as efficiently as possible. Less obviously, we find that there may be an optimal non-zero level of output-based allocation. This optimal level increases as the carbon price and/or factor supply elasticities increase, but decreases if revenues are recycled with greater efficiency.     

Gasoline taxes and revenue volatility: An application to California

This paper examines how applying different combinations of excise and sales taxes on motor fuels impact the volatility of retail fuel prices and tax revenues. Two features of gasoline and diesel markets make the choice of tax mechanism a unique problem. First, prices are very volatile. Second, demand for motor fuels is extremely inelastic. As a result, fuel expenditures vary substantially over time. Tying state revenues to these expenditures, as is the case with a sales tax, results in a volatile stream of revenue which imposes real costs on agents in an economy. On July 1, 2010, California enacted Assembly Bill x8-6, the “Gas Tax Swap”, increasing the excise tax and decreasing the sales tax on gasoline purchases. While the initial motivation behind the revenue neutral swap was to provide the state with greater flexibility within its budget, we highlight that this change has two potentially overlooked benefits; it reduces retail fuel price volatility and tax revenue volatility. Simulating the monthly fuel prices and tax revenues under alternative tax policies, we quantify the potential reductions in revenue volatility. The results reveal that greater benefits can be achieved by going beyond the tax swap and eliminating the gasoline sales tax entirely.     

Carbon taxation in Russia: Prospects for a double dividend and improved energy efficiency

This study analyses the sectoral and macroeconomic impact of carbon taxes on the Russian economy, one of the world's most energy- and carbon-intensive economies, while assessing the hypothesis of a double dividend. Substituting carbon taxes for labour taxes can reduce GHG emissions and enhance welfare by improving the efficiency of the tax system — a strong double dividend. The analyses confirm, when capital is not internationally mobile, that a double dividend is likely to occur under (i) a high elasticity of labour supply, (ii) high elasticities of substitution between labour and the capital-energy aggregate, (iii) low elasticities of substitution between capital and energy. It is the tax-shifting effect between capital and labour that is crucial. In contrast, welfare losses resulting from the environmental tax reform may be substantial if capital is internationally mobile.     

Taxing pollution and profits: A bargaining approach

This paper analyzes the taxation of polluting firms in a model where the government and firms bargain over emissions and profits taxes. We demonstrate that under reasonable assumptions, the bargaining position of firms is a determinant of the profits tax yet has no impact on the emissions tax. The emissions tax is affected by market structure, firm technologies, and environmental awareness. An emissions tax may not be imposed in some circumstances, although it would raise public revenue and reduce pollution. In that case, the transfer of profits taxes to people can be used to address their environmental suffering. We then extend the model to consider that the government spends a fraction of tax revenue to partner with firms in pollution abatement. Public environmental spending will increase with the demand for polluting goods and facilitate a cut in the emissions tax, which leads to a higher output level and less abatement effort at firms.     

“Investments and public finance in a green,low carbon,economy”

The paper evaluates the impacts on investments and public finance of a transition to a green, low carbon, economy induced by carbon taxation. Four global tax scenarios are examined using the integrated assessment model WITCH. Taxes are levied on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and lead to global GHG concentrations equal to 680, 560, 500 and 460 ppm CO₂-eq in 2100. Investments in the power sector increase with respect to the Reference scenario only with the two highest taxes. Investments in energy-related R&D increase in all tax scenarios, but they are a small fraction of GDP. Investments in oil upstream decline in all scenarios. As a result, total investments decline with respect to the Reference scenario. Carbon tax revenues are high in absolute terms and as share of GDP. With high carbon taxes, tax revenues follow a “carbon Laffer” curve. The model assumes that tax revenues are flawlessly recycled lump-sum into the economy. In all scenarios, the power sector becomes a net recipient of subsidies to support the absorption of GHGs. In some regions, with high carbon taxes, subsidies to GHG removal are higher than tax revenues at the end of the century.     

History and social responses to environmental tax reform in the United Kingdom

This paper gives a short history of fuel taxation and the Climate Change Levy in the UK. The research described was based around the use of interviews and focus groups to inform the assessment of social responses to ETR policies and the development of improved designs for them. Interviews were conducted with selected policy makers and companies. Focus groups were conducted with quota samples of the general public. The research shows that the problem that ETR faces in terms of public acceptance is not so much outright hostility to environmental taxation as conceptual problems with the design. Similar conceptual problems were also found in the interviews with business people. These can be summarised as lack of trust about use of the revenues, difficulty in understanding the purpose of a tax shift and a desire for incentives for good behaviour as well as perceived ‘penalties’ for bad behaviour.     

Economic analysis of the climate pledges of the Copenhagen Accord for the EU and other major countries

This article uses the world GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic consequences of the climate ‘Copenhagen Accord’. The model allows analyzing the macroeconomic costs in terms of GDP, the change in employment, as well as the impacts on production of specific energy-intensive sectors. Various 2020 climate scenarios are evaluated depending on the GHG mitigation pledges. We find that the cost for the developed countries is around 0.5% of GDP in 2020 for the more ambitious pledges, whereas the GDP effects are more heterogeneous across developing countries and Russia, reflecting the different pledges and the assumptions in the reference scenario across these countries. Further, the article explores whether there is a form of double dividend in the EU when the revenues from auctioning or taxation of GHG emissions are used to reduce the social security contributions of employees. We conclude that GDP and employment perform better compared to the free allocation of permits when more sectors are subject to auctioning or GHG taxes and the additional government revenues are used to reduce the cost of labour.     

The incidence of fuel taxation in India

Fuel taxes have returned to centre stage as a potential policy instrument for greenhouse gas abatement. On the basis of some studies in developed countries, critics have complained that a fuel tax would be regressive. This paper uses data from a representative household survey covering more than 124 thousand Indian households to examine this claim. It finds that a fuel tax would be progressive as would a carbon tax. Using an input–output approach, it is found that the progressivity results holds good even when one considers indirect consumption of fuel through its use as an intermediate input. Sensitivity checks allowing for differing price elasticities of demand between rich and poor confirm this result for most of fuels. A tax on kerosene is the only fuel tax that is regressive in all situations.     

Can a carbon permit system reduce Spanish unemployment?

This paper analyses the impact of carbon policy on unemployment in Spain and whether recycling the public revenues earned from permit auctions can alleviate this problem. While Spain's deviation from the European Union's intermediate emission goals is more serious than most other member countries' unemployment in Spain is also well above average for the European Union. We use a computable general equilibrium model that includes unemployment in the markets for unskilled and skilled labour. We find that introducing carbon permits does not aggravate Spanish unemployment. In fact, if supplied with revenue recycling schemes, unemployment rates may actually fall. Contrary to other European studies, we find that the best option is to reduce payroll taxes on relatively skilled types of labour. This reform is successful in both increasing labour demand and dampening the supply response to rising wages. However, while all of the recycling schemes generate dividends in terms of aggregate welfare, none entirely offsets the abatement costs.     

Environmental tax reform: an assessment of social responses in Ireland

Environmental tax reform (ETR) is widely accepted to be a policy with desirable environmental, and other economic effects. The question arises then as to why its implementation has been so patchy. There is a broad literature on the economic impact of ETR, however, there have been very few research efforts devoted to understanding the roles and imperatives of the public, policy makers, businesses and other stakeholders who are addressed by ETR. This paper examines the impediments to ETR in Ireland. Focus groups were formed comprising of members of the general public and these provided a forum for detailed reactions to the ETR concept. Interviews were conducted with policy makers and key business people in an attempt to identify both the patterns of thinking behind ETR and the main obstacles to its introduction. Having presented the results, a theory of the main impediments to ETR is developed. The opinions of the members of the public, the business community and the policy makers highlight a number of issues that need to be addressed in the future design of ETR in Ireland. The principal potential impediments to ETR include: mistrust of the government, implausibility of the policy, means of hypothecation, information asymmetries, the political system, the structure of government, the macroeconomic environment, the impact on competitiveness, inequity between sectors, regressivity, elasticities and the level of the tax, terminology, and the marketing of ETR.     

The distributional implications of a carbon tax in Ireland

We study the effects of carbon tax and revenue recycling across the income distribution in the Republic of Ireland. In absolute terms, a carbon tax of €20/tCO₂ would cost the poorest households less than €3/week and the richest households more than €4/week. A carbon tax is regressive, therefore. However, if the tax revenue is used to increase social benefits and tax credits, households across the income distribution can be made better off without exhausting the total carbon tax revenue.     

Tracking global carbon revenues: A survey of carbon taxes versus cap-and-trade in the real world

We investigate the current use of public revenues which are generated through both carbon taxes and cap-and-trade systems. More than $28.3 billion in government “carbon revenues” are currently collected each year in 40 countries and another 16 states or provinces around the world. Of those revenues, 27% ($7.8 billion) are used to subsidize “green” spending in energy efficiency or renewable energy; 26% ($7.4 billion) go toward state general funds; and 36% ($10.1 billion) are returned to corporate or individual taxpayers through paired tax cuts or direct rebates. Cap-and-trade systems ($6.57 billion in total public revenue) earmark a larger share of revenues for “green” spending (70%), while carbon tax systems ($21.7 billion) more commonly refund revenues or otherwise direct them towards government general funds (72% of revenues). Drawing from an empirical dataset, we also identify various trends in systems’ use of “carbon revenues” in terms of the total revenues collected annually per capita in each jurisdiction and offer commensurate qualitative observations on carbon policy design choices.     

When environmental and redistribution concerns collide: The case of electricity pricing

Countries worldwide face major income inequality and environmental challenges. However, recent social upheavals reveal the conflict of interests induced by policies designed to address these concerns. One example relates to residential electricity, where volumetric grid charges and taxes may impede the affordability of electricity. We develop and calibrate a model that captures the social planner's trade-off between inequality aversion and environmental concerns. We employ panel data on 105,000 households in the Swiss Canton of Bern from 2008 to 2013, including electricity consumption, household income and tax payment characteristics. The results show that with inequity aversion and no negative environmental externalities electricity consumption should be subsidised by income tax revenue. With negative environmental externalities, or asymmetric information between the government and the utility, end-user electricity prices are shifted upwards. For high degrees of inequality aversion, the optimal electricity end-user price is below the marginal cost, even in the presence of negative environmental externalities.     

Energy taxes: A method for financing national health insurance

The research shows that an energy tax could be used to finance a national health care program. The tax would generate sufficient revenues for the plan, reduce imports, and reduce pollution. The tax could be altered to decrease its regressive nature and still maintain sufficient revenues.     

油气资源税对新疆经济社会的影响

2010年6月1日起新疆原油、天然气资源税实行从价计征,税率为5%。本文按照从价计征的方法,对新疆油气资源税税额做了测算分析。本次油气资源税改革在新疆先行先试,对新疆有三大利好:一是国家放宽了对新疆天然气利用的政策,放宽了相关行业的准入限制,鼓励LNG项目或天然气化工产业发展,增加当地利用天然气规模。二是可大幅增加地方税收。初步测算,与从量计征的征收方式相比,从价计征可增加税额6～7倍。三是有助于"气化南疆"工程的推进。新疆在资源税费改革先行先试所获得的成果,有助于为资源税改革的全面推行提供经验和借鉴。     

Extracting the resource rent from the CDM projects: Can the Chinese Government do better?

The revenue generated from a CDM project in China will be shared by the government and the project owner, and is also subject to the corporate income tax. This paper studies the impacts of the revenue sharing policy and income tax on the CDM market. The economic model presented in this paper shows that higher-cost CDM projects will be more affected by the CDM policies than lower-cost projects. In addition, the majority of CERs will be generated from lower-cost projects. This kind of distribution of CERs across different types of CDM projects, which is in line with the current picture of the CDM market in China, is not consistent with the goal of sustainable development. A simulation shows that a type-by-type tax/fee scheme would be more effective in assisting sustainable development than the current CDM policies. The study also suggests the government use negative tax/fee with the type-by-type scheme to subsidize the CDM projects that generate large sustainability benefits but would otherwise not be developed due to high costs. If all of the revenue from the CDM is recycled, it is estimated that CERs generation will increase by 98.28 MtC, mainly from the CDM projects that have substantial sustainability benefits for the host country.     

Social and political responses to ecological tax reform in Europe: an introduction to the special issue

This paper introduces the special issue on the Policies for Ecological Tax Reform: Assessment of Social Responses (PETRAS) project about responses to ecological tax reform (ETR) in Europe. Although ETR is widely accepted to be a policy with desirable effects, its implementation has been limited by problems of political acceptability. The project aimed to address the question of how to make such a policy more acceptable. It is the first study to examine in depth the thinking of members of the general public about the ETR policies and is also the first international comparative study of the thinking of ordinary business people about ETR policies. The PETRAS project methodology was based around the use of interviews and focus groups to inform the assessment of social responses to ETR policies and the development of improved designs for them. A number of issues emerged relating to awareness, trust, understanding of the purpose, visibility, incentives, regressivity, levels of taxation, terminology, communication about ETR and the use of alternative instruments. Together with these similarities, a pattern of differences between the countries can also be seen. The final section of this paper introduces the national studies described in the following papers.