Long-term CO2 emissions reduction target and scenarios of power sector in Taiwan

This study analyses a series of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions abatement scenarios of the power sector in Taiwan according to the Sustainable Energy Policy Guidelines, which was released by Executive Yuan in June 2008. The MARKAL-MACRO energy model was adopted to evaluate economic impacts and optimal energy deployment for CO₂ emissions reduction scenarios. This study includes analyses of life extension of nuclear power plant, the construction of new nuclear power units, commercialized timing of fossil fuel power plants with CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) technology and two alternative flexible trajectories of CO₂ emissions constraints. The CO₂ emissions reduction target in reference reduction scenario is back to 70% of 2000 levels in 2050. The two alternative flexible scenarios, Rt4 and Rt5, are back to 70% of 2005 and 80% of 2005 levels in 2050. The results show that nuclear power plants and CCS technology will further lower the marginal cost of CO₂ emissions reduction. Gross domestic product (GDP) loss rate in reference reduction scenario is 16.9% in 2050, but 8.9% and 6.4% in Rt4 and Rt5, respectively. This study shows the economic impacts in achieving Taiwan's CO₂ emissions mitigation targets and reveals feasible CO₂ emissions reduction strategies for the power sector.     

Light vehicle energy efficiency programs and their impact on Brazilian CO2 emissions

This paper analyses the impact of an energy efficiency program for light vehicles in Brazil on emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the main greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Several energy efficiency programs for light vehicles around the world are reviewed. The cases of Japan and Europe were selected for presentation here given their status as current and future world leaders in the control of passenger vehicle fuel consumption. The launching of the National Climate Change Plan and the pressure on the Brazilian car industry due to the world financial crisis make it a good time for the Brazilian government to implement such a program, and its various benefits are highlighted in this study. Three scenarios are established for Brazil covering the 2000–2030 period: the first with no efficiency goals, the second with the Japanese goals applied with a 10 years delay, and the third, with the Japanese goals applied with no delay. The consequences of a vehicular efficiency program and its middle and long-term effects on the consumption of energy and the CO₂ emissions are quantified and discussed. The simulation results indicate that efficiency goals may make an important contribution to reducing vehicular emissions and fuel consumption in Brazil, compared to a baseline scenario.     

Impact of the economic recession on the European power sector’s CO2 emissions

This paper investigates the impact of the economic recession on CO₂ emissions in the European power sector, during the years 2008 and 2009. Three main determinants of the power sector’s emissions are identified: the demand for electricity, the CO₂ price, and fuel prices. A counterfactual scenario has been set up for each of these, i.e., what these parameters would have been if not affected by the recession. A simulation model of the European power sector is then employed, comparing a historical reference simulation (taking the parameters as actually occurred) with the counterfactual scenarios. The lower electricity demand (due to the recession) is shown to have by far the largest impact, accounting for an emission reduction of about 175 Mton. The lower CO₂ price (due to the recession) resulted in an increase in emissions by about 30 Mton. The impact of fuel prices is more difficult to retrieve; an indicative reduction of about 17 Mton is obtained, mainly as a consequence of the low gas prices in 2009. The simulated combined impact of the parameters results in an emission reduction of about 150 Mton in the European power sector over the years 2008 and 2009 as a consequence of the recession.     

Factors affecting CO2 emission from the power sector of selected countries in Asia and the Pacific

This study analyzes the key factors behind the CO₂ emissions from the power sector in fifteen selected countries in Asia and the Pacific using the Log-Mean Divisia Index method of decomposition. The roles of changes in economic output, electricity intensity of the economy, fuel intensity of power generation and generation structure are examined in the evolution of CO₂ emission from the power sector of the selected countries during 1980–2004. The study shows that the economic growth was the dominant factor behind the increase in CO₂ emission in ten of the selected countries (i.e., Australia, China, India, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, while the increasing electricity intensity of the economy was the main factor in three countries (Bangladesh, Indonesia and Philippines). Structural changes in power generation were found to be the main contributor to changes in the CO₂ emission in the case of Sri Lanka and New Zealand.     

Insight into the Greek electric sector and energy planning with mature technologies and fuel diversification

The numerous available options for the development of the Greek electric sector in combination with the various techno-economic and political constraints make energy planning rather complex. Furthermore, as full auctioning of CO₂ allowances shall be the rule from 2013 onwards for the electric sector following free allocation, even more uncertainties emerge. This work aims at investigating the main characteristics of the Greek electric system taking into consideration the various allowance allocation schemes, evaluates fundamental energy scenarios and ultimately performs energy planning. The reliability of the algorithm utilised is assessed by predicting successfully key figure energy results for years 2004–2008. Main parameter under investigation in the study is the cost of CO₂ emissions allowances, while expansion scenarios are evaluated according to a newly developed set of indices standing for feasibility, environmental performance, cost effectiveness and energy safety. Many expansion scenarios examined were proved unrealistic as led to extremely high utilization of imported fuels for electricity production, while others proved inefficient on environmental or economic basis. Finally, it was proved that if a “conservative” energy planning is adopted, emissions reduction in 2020 can reach 6.3% over 2005.     

Analyses of CO2 emissions embodied in Japan–China trade

This paper examines CO₂ emissions embodied in Japan–China trade. Besides directly quantifying the flow of CO₂ emissions between the two countries by using a traditional input–output (IO) model, this study also estimates the effect of bilateral trade to CO₂ emissions by scenario analysis. The time series of quantifications indicate that CO₂ emissions embodied in exported goods from Japan to China increased overall from 1990 to 2000. The exported CO₂ emissions from China to Japan greatly increased in the first half of the 1990s. However, by 2000, the amount of emissions had reduced from 1995 levels. Regardless, there was a net export of CO₂ emissions from China to Japan during 1990–2000. The scenario comparison shows that the bilateral trade has helped the reduction of CO₂ emissions. On average, the Chinese economy was confirmed to be much more carbon-intensive than Japan. The regression analysis shows a significant but not perfect correlation between the carbon intensities at the sector level of the two countries. In terms of CO₂ emission reduction opportunities, most sectors of Chinese industry could benefit from learning Japanese technologies that produce lower carbon intensities.     

A long-term view of fossil-fuelled power generation in Europe

The paper presents a view into the long term future of fossil-fuelled power generation in the European Union, based on a number of alternative scenarios for the development of the coal, natural gas and CO₂ markets, and the penetration of renewable and nuclear technologies. The new fossil fuelled capacity needed and the likely technology mix are estimated using a cost optimisation model based on the screening curve method, taking into consideration the rate of retirement of the current power plant fleet, the capacity already planned or under construction and the role of carbon capture and storage technologies. This analysis shows that measures to increase both non-fossil-fuel-based power generation and the price of CO₂ are necessary to drive the composition of the European power generation capacity so that the European policy goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions is achieved. Meeting this goal will however require a high capital investment for the creation of an optimal fossil fuel power plant technology mix.     

Status of thermal power generation in India—Perspectives on capacity,generation and carbon dioxide emissions

India’s reliance on fossil-fuel based electricity generation has aggravated the problem of high carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, primarily coal, in the country’s energy sector. The objective of this paper is to analyze thermal power generation in India for a four-year period and determine the net generation from thermal power stations and the total and specific CO₂ emissions. The installed generating capacity, net generation and CO₂ emissions figures for the plants have been compared and large generators, large emitters, fuel types and also plant vintage have been identified. Specific emissions and dates of commissioning of plants have been taken into account for assessing whether specific plants need to be modernized. The focus is to find out areas and stations which are contributing more to the total emissions from all thermal power generating stations in the country and identify the overall trends that are emerging.     

Achieving 60% CO2 reductions within the UK energy system—Implications for the electricity generation sector

This paper explores how investment in the UK electricity generation sector can contribute to the UK goal of reducing CO₂ emissions with 60% by the year 2050 relative to the 1990 emissions. Considering likely development of the transportation sector and industry over the period, i.e. a continued demand growth and dependency on fossil fuels and electricity, the analysis shows that this implies CO₂ emission reductions of up to 90% by 2050 for the electricity sector. Emphasis is put on limitations imposed by the present system, described by a detailed database of existing power plants, together with meeting targets on renewable electricity generation (RES) including assumptions on gas acting as backup technology for intermittent RES. In particular, it is investigated to what extent new fossil fuelled and nuclear power is required to meet the year 2050 demand as specified by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP). In addition, the number of sites required for centralized electricity generation (large power plants) is compared with the present number of sites. A simulation model was developed for the analysis. The model applies the UK national targets on RES, taken from Renewable Obligation (RO) for 2010 and 2020 and potentials given by RCEP for 2050, and assumed technical lifetimes of the power plants of the existing system and thus, links this system with targets for the years 2010, 2020 and 2050.     

Electricity savings and CO2 emissions reduction in buildings sector: How important the network losses are in the calculation?

The increase of CO₂ emissions and the emerging climate change are the most serious environmental problems nowadays and limit economic development. This increase is mainly attributed to the growing world population and the related growth in energy demand, which results in the vast consumption of fossil fuels in the power generation sector. Significant actions for the implementation of energy saving measures have been adopted worldwide for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. CO₂ calculators have been developed to evaluate the effectiveness of these measures, relating energy to CO₂ emissions. These calculators include in most cases the entire power system. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the role of the electricity networks' losses in the actual CO₂ reduction potential, following the implementation of energy saving measures, in relation to the network's voltage level in which the infrastructure is connected. Buildings are representative due to their volume and to different voltage levels of power supply. The work presented was conducted in the framework of the Intelligent Energy Europe Programme entitled Bottom Up to Kyoto (BUtK), as a part of an evaluation of the CO₂ emissions' reduction potential through energy savings measures in 6 municipalities of EU's New Member States.     

Does a regional greenhouse gas policy make sense? A case study of carbon leakage and emissions spillover

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is a state-level effort by ten northeast states in the U.S. to control CO₂ emissions from the electric sector. The approach adopted by RGGI is a regional cap-and-trade program, which sets a maximal annual amount of regional CO₂ emissions that can be emitted from the electric sector. However, incoherence of the geographic scope of the regional electricity market is expected to produce two undesirable consequences: CO₂ leakage and NO_x and SO₂ emissions spillover. This paper addresses these two issues using transmission-constrained electricity market models. The results show that although larger CO₂ leakage is associated with higher allowance prices, it is negatively related to CO₂ prices if measured in percentage terms. On the other hand, SO₂ and NO_x emissions spillover increase in commensurate with CO₂ allowance prices. Demand elasticity attenuates the effect of emissions trading on leakage and emissions spillover. This highlights the difficulties of designing a regional or local climate policy.     

Cost of energy and environmental policy in Portuguese CO2 abatement—scenario analysis to 2020

This paper quantifies the contribution of Portuguese energy policies for total and marginal abatement costs (MAC) for CO₂ emissions for 2020. The TIMES_PT optimisation model was used to derive MAC curves from a set of policy scenarios including one or more of the following policies: ban on nuclear power; ban on new coal power plants without carbon sequestration and storage; incentives to natural gas power plants; and a cap on biomass use. The different MAC shows the policies’ effects in the potential for CO₂ abatement. In 2020, in the most encompassing policy scenario, with all current and planned policies, is possible to abate only up to +35% of 1990 emissions at a cost below 23 € t/CO₂. In the more flexible policy scenarios, it is possible to abate up to −10% of 1990 emissions below the same cost. The total energy system costs are 10–13% higher if all policies are implemented—76 to 101 B€—roughly the equivalent to 2.01–2.65% of the 2005 GDP. Thus, from a CO₂ emission mitigation perspective, the existing policies introduce significant inefficiencies, possibly related to other policy goals. The ban on nuclear power is the instrument that has the most significant effect in MAC.     

Experimental studies on cofiring of coal and biomass blends in India

Concerns regarding the potential global environmental impacts of fossil fuels used in power generation and other energy supplies are increasing worldwide. One of the methods of mitigating these environmental impacts is increasing the fraction of renewable and sustainable energy in the national energy usage. A number of techniques and methods have been proposed for reducing gaseous emissions of NO_x,SO₂ and CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion and for reducing costs associated with these mitigation techniques. Some of the control methods are expensive and therefore increase production costs. Among the less expensive alternatives, cofiring has gained popularity with the electric utility producers. This paper discusses the ‘gaseous emission characteristics namely NO_x,SO₂, suspended particulate matter and other characteristics like specific fuel consumption, total fuel required, actual and equivalent evaporation, total cost of fuel, etc. from a 18.68 MW power plant with a travelling grate boiler, when biomass was cofired with bituminous coal in three proportions of 20%, 40% and 60% by mass. Bagasse, wood chips (Julia flora), sugarcane trash and coconut shell are the biomass fuels cofired with coal in this study.     

Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: Underlying factors and policy options

This study analyze the potential factors influencing the growth of transport sector carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in selected Asian countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing annual emissions growth into components representing changes in fuel mix, modal shift, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and population, as well as changes in emission coefficients and transportation energy intensity. We find that changes in per capita GDP, population growth and transportation energy intensity are the main factors driving transport sector CO₂ emission growth in the countries considered. While growth in per capita income and population are responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand; the decline of transportation energy intensity is driving CO₂ emissions down in Mongolia. Per capita GDP, population and transportation energy intensity effects are all found responsible for transport sector CO₂ emissions growth in Bangladesh, the Philippines and Vietnam. The study also reviews existing government policies to limit CO₂ emissions growth, such as fiscal instruments, fuel economy standards and policies to encourage switching to less emission intensive fuels and transportation modes.     

Recycling a hydrogen rich residual stream to the power and steam plant

The benefits of using a residual hydrogen rich stream as a clean combustion fuel in order to reduce Carbon dioxide emissions and cost is quantified. A residual stream containing 86% of hydrogen, coming from the top of the demethanizer column of the cryogenic separation sector of an ethylene plant, is recycled to be mixed with natural gas and burned in the boilers of the utility plant to generate high pressure steam and power. The main advantage is due to the fact that the hydrogen rich residual gas has a higher heating value and less CO₂ combustion emissions than the natural gas. The residual gas flowrate to be recycled is selected optimally together with other continuous and binary operating variables. A Mixed Integer Non Linear Programming problem is formulated in GAMS to select the operating conditions to minimize life cycle CO₂ emissions.     

Methodology for assessing emission reduction of truck-only toll lanes

The emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the largest component of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, emitted from heavy trucks is second only to passenger cars in terms of GHG emissions from the transportation sector. Truck-only toll (TOT) lanes have been proposed in several cities as a means of improving truck flows and reducing freeway congestion. This paper describes an analysis that utilized the US EPA's MOBILE6.2 vehicle emissions modeling software to identify freeway locations with large pollutant emissions and estimated the changes in emission associated with TOT lanes. Emissions including hydrocarbon (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NO_x), and CO₂ were estimated by multiplying vehicle kilometers traveled by emission factors associated with various vehicle types and average speeds. The CO₂ calculation was limited due to lack of sensitivity in the model of speed variation, which is one of the benefits of the implementation of TOT lanes. Mechanical equations of engine horsepower involving the change in vehicle speeds is applied to estimate the change in CO₂ fuel consumption and then converted to estimate the change in CO₂ emissions. The results show that voluntary and mandatory use of TOT lanes would reduce total CO₂ emissions on all freeway lanes by 62% and 60%.     

Modelling the impacts of a carbon emission-differentiated vehicle tax system on CO2 emissions intensity from new vehicle purchases in Ireland

The increasing awareness of the effects of climate change on the environment and the economic pressure on oil supply has focused international attention on reducing CO₂ emissions and energy usage across all sectors. In order to meet their Kyoto protocol commitments and in line with European Union policy, the Irish government has introduced a carbon-based tax system for new vehicles purchased from the 1st of July 2008. This new legislation aims to reduce carbon emissions in the transport sector, a sector which is responsible for a significant proportion of both. This paper presents the results of the development, calibration, and application of a car choice model which predicts the changes in CO₂ emissions intensity from new vehicle purchases as a result of the changes in vehicle tax policy and fuel price in Ireland. The model also predicts the impact of such changes on tax revenue for the Irish government and the changes in the split between the number of diesel and petrol vehicles purchased. The investigation found that the introduction of these new carbon-based taxes in Ireland will result in a reduction of 3.6–3.8% in CO₂ emissions intensity and a reduction in annual tax revenue of €191 M.     

Can EV (electric vehicles) address Ireland’s CO2 emissions from transport?

In the period 1990–2007, CO₂ emissions from Ireland’s Transport sector increased by 181%. It has been proposed that a transition to EV (electrically-powered vehicles) – either BEV (battery-powered) or PHEV (plug-in hybrids) – offers the potential for significant reductions in these emissions. However, the benefits of PHEV – and of plug-in vehicles generally – accrue because some fraction of the fossil fuel normally consumed by the vehicle is displaced by electricity extracted from the national grid. The net benefit therefore depends on many factors, including the characteristics of the electricity generation and distribution system, and the proportion of vkm (vehicle-kilometres) completed under electric power.     

Spatial variation of emissions impacts due to renewable energy siting decisions in the Western U.S. under high-renewable penetration scenarios

One of the policy goals motivating programs to increase renewable energy investment is that renewable electric generation will help reduce emissions of CO₂ as well as emissions of conventional pollutants (e.g., SO₂ and NO_x). As a policy instrument, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) encourage investments in wind, solar and other generation sources with the goal of reducing air emissions from electricity production. Increased electricity production from wind turbines is expected to displace electricity production from fossil-fired plants, thus reducing overall system emissions. We analyze the emissions impacts of incremental investments in utility-scale wind power, on the order of 1 GW beyond RPS goals, in the Western United States using a utility-scale generation dispatch model that incorporates the impacts of transmission constraints. We find that wind investment in some locations leads to slight increases in overall emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x. The location of wind farms influences the environmental impact by changing the utilization of transmission assets, which affects the overall utilization of power generation sources and thus system-level emissions. Our results suggest that renewable energy policy beyond RPS targets should be carefully crafted to ensure consistency with environmental goals.     

Empirical study on the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 in France: The role of nuclear energy

This paper attempts to estimate the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in the case of France by taking the role of nuclear energy in electricity production into account. We adopt the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration as the estimation method. Additionally, we examine the stability of the estimated models and investigate the Granger causality relationships between the variables in the system. The results from our estimation provide evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis, and the estimated models are shown to be stable over the sample period. The uni-direction running from other variables to CO₂ emissions are confirmed from the casualty tests. Specifically, the uni-directional causality relationship running from nuclear energy to CO₂ emissions statistically provides evidence on the important role of nuclear energy in reducing CO₂ emissions.