The Asia Pacific natural gas market: Large enough for all?

Among natural gas producing nations, there has been some concern about how the Asia Pacific will meet future demand for energy. We argue that natural gas, both regional and global, will play a vital role. Estimates of potential gas consumption in the region are analyzed and used to develop consensus projections to 2030. These consumption profiles are compared with gas supply estimates including indigenous, pipeline and LNG for the Asia Pacific market. From this analytical framework, we find that demand will be sufficiently large to accommodate supplies from diverse sources including North America, the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, and the Asia Pacific itself. An important policy implication is that gas producing and consuming nations should benefit from promoting gas trade and not be concerned about a situation of potential lack of demand coupled with oversupply.     

The relationship between energy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from 66 countries

In this study, we use dynamic panel data models to examine the impact of electricity and non-electricity variables on economic growth for a global panel consisting of 66 countries. The time component of our dataset is 1986–2005 inclusive. We also estimate this relationship for four regional panels; namely, East/South Asian and the Pacific region, Europe and Central Asian region, Latin America and Caribbean region, and Sub-Saharan, North Africa and Middle Eastern region. In total, we use six proxies for energy. The empirical analysis is based on a sound theoretical framework, in that we draw on growth theory and augment the classical growth model, which consists of inflation, capital stock, labour force and trade, with energy. Generally, the results on the impact of energy are mixed.     

走出石油价格困局 实现石油可持续供给

受世界石油需求增加,原油库存减少与欧佩克(石油输出国组织)限产保价、美元贬值、产油国政局紧张和国际投机资本等多方面因素的影响,目前世界油价不断走高。受此影响,我国原油月平均进口价格也持续走高,4月份每吨价格已突破250美元。值得一提的是,原油进口以中东地区为主要供应地区,自亚太地区进口比重有所上升,表明多元化进口战略得到初步实施。高油价可能对我国经济产生重大影响,为此把握国际原油市场的价格变化趋势和规律,改进贸易方式,开放期货市场,加大油气勘探投入,建立储备,提倡节约,这些措施对保障我国国民经济快速健康稳定协调发展具有不可估量的现实意义。     

亚太能源供应受制中东 中亚能否占据一席之地?

在分析了亚太地区能源供需形势、尤其对作为亚太地区最大能源供应方的中东进行分析的基础上,指出中亚作为亚太地区新的能源供应方的可能性。由于亚太地区对石油进口依赖性的增长,中东作为重要的油气输出方,其地位会进一步提升,与此同时,中亚的能源供应潜力越来越多的得到世界的关注,其在亚太的能源战略中将占有更重要的地位。     

Energy trade efficiency and its determinants: A Malmquist index approach

This paper adopts the Malmquist index approach to investigate multi-product energy trade efficiency and its determinants from an empirical perspective. Using trade statistics of coal, oil and gas of 40 countries over the period of 1995 to 2008, we found that the efficiency of bilateral energy trade ranged between 0.26 and 0.35 when imperfect substitution between different energy products is taken into account. This measure is significantly lower than those obtained from traditional gravity models. It suggests that the ability of cross-product substitution affects trade efficiency improvement which results from regional market integration and related trade policy. The results provide useful insights on predicting the pattern of future energy trade and hence have important implications for relevant countries to prioritize product-specific trade policies.     

Lignocellulosic ethanol production from woody biomass: The impact of facility siting on competitiveness

Just as temperate region pulp and paper companies need to compete with Brazilian eucalyptus pulp producers, lignocellulosic biofuel producers in North America and Europe, in the absence of protectionist trade policies, will need to be competitive with tropical and sub-tropical biofuel producers. This work sought to determine the impact of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting on economic performance and minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) for both east and west coast North American fuel markets. Facility sites included the pine-dominated Pacific Northwest Interior, the mixed deciduous forest of Ontario and New York, and the Brazilian state of Espírito Santo. Feedstock scenarios included both plantation (poplar, willow, and eucalyptus, respectively) and managed forest harvest. Site specific variables in the techno-economic model included delivered feedstock cost, ethanol delivery cost, cost of capital, construction cost, labour cost, electricity revenues (and co-product credits), and taxes, insurance, and permits. Despite the long shipping distance from Brazil to North American east and west coast markets, the MESP for Brazilian-produced eucalyptus lignocellulosic ethanol, modelled at $0.74 L⁻¹, was notably lower than that of all North American-produced cases at $0.83–1.02 L⁻¹.     

A framework for technology cooperation to accelerate the deployment of renewable energy in Pacific Island Countries

When considering renewable energy, Pacific Island Countries (PICs) focus on energy security and affordability as primary benefits. In Melanesia, access to modern energy services represents a major unfinished agenda. To that end, Pacific Energy Ministers have endorsed the Framework for Action on Energy Security in the Pacific (FAESP) in April 2011. The associated implementation plan (IPESP) was developed, however never formally endorsed. PICs have instead taken a pathway towards national energy transition roadmaps. This paper describes the current status of the energy sector in PICs, the main challenges and the barriers to the deployment of renewable energy and the role of international cooperation in accelerating deployment. In the context of this analysis, technology cooperation is treated as the sum of cooperation on “orgware”, software and hardware. These three dimensions are explored in the context of the Pacific energy sector, looking at how development finance (DF) is currently distributed among them. Looking at the key barriers identified and the areas where DF has been focused to date, this paper proposes a framework for removal of barriers to the deployment of renewable energy in the Pacific through more focused use of DF and technical cooperation. The framework identifies key goals, actors, activities, resources necessary and indicators to monitor progress.     

Better or worse? The role of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in sustainable development: Case studies of remote atoll communities in Kiribati

The Republic of Kiribati, formerly known as the Gilbert Islands, is a Micronesian (One of the three groups of islands in the Pacific. The eight territories that make up Micronesia are Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Republic of Kiribati, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Republic of Nauru, Republic of Palau, Territory of Guam and Territory of Wake Island. The other two groups of islands in the Pacific are Melanesia and Polynesia) country in the Pacific. The energy sources utilised in Kiribati include petroleum products, biomass, solar energy and wind power. Solar energy was introduced in Kiribati in the early 1980s (Wade H. Survey of RESCO projects – prepared for OPRET, Fiji Department of Energy, 2003; p. 36). Currently, it makes a very insignificant (less than 1%) contribution to the total annual primary energy supply (South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). Pacific Islands Renewable Energy Project (PIREP) – Pacific Regional Energy Assessment (PREA) 2004. Kiribati national report, Vol. 5, 2005). Solar energy in Kiribati is used mostly in the form of solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies for the provision of lighting and electricity.This study examines the role of PV technologies in the sustainable development process in Kiribati, with particular reference to remote atoll communities. Initial results from on-site surveys carried out are reported in this paper. These surveys have sought to identify the reasons why people use or do not use PV systems.     

A comparison of two methods of estimating insolation over the tropical pacific ocean using cloudiness from satellite observations

Two methods of estimating insolation over the tropical Pacific using cloud cover from satellite observations are compared with each other and with average monthly ration data from four Pacific island stations. The two methods yield comparable values for latitudes within 15° of the equator but diverge at higher latitudes. Both methods overestimate insolation in the summer and underestimate insolation in the winter for the two stations above 15° latitude. Results support reports that tropical Pacific cloud types have a high mean transparency.     

Carbon emission,energy consumption and intermediate goods trade: A regional study of East Asia

Using country level panel data from East Asia over the period 1998–2011, this paper examines the implications of international production fragmentation-induced intermediate goods trade on the link between energy consumption and carbon pollution. The paper focuses on the interaction effect between energy consumption and trade in intermediate goods on carbon emission. The empirical results presented suggest that international trade in intermediate goods decreases the positive impact on carbon emission of energy consumption. When compared with the trade in final goods, intermediate goods trade contributes to a greater decrease in carbon pollution resulting from energy consumption. These results confirm that the link between energy consumption and carbon pollution in East Asia is significantly affected by international production fragmentation-induced trade in intermediate goods. The results presented in this paper have some important policy implications.     

A multi-regional input–output analysis of the pollution haven hypothesis from the perspective of global production fragmentation

Pollution haven hypothesis is an important debate on the environmental effects of international trade, the pattern of which has been reshaped obviously by global production fragmentation recently. The production process is distributed globally, and the pollution haven effect of international trade is becoming more complicated. For instance, intermediate product trade corresponds to the largest share of embodied emissions, and the share of emissions induced by the global value chain related trade is increasing gradually. The aim of this paper is to make a comprehensive analysis on the pollution haven hypothesis in carbon emissions embodied in three different trade patterns from global, bilateral, and national perspectives. We propose a method to parcel the pollution haven hypothesis in a multi-regional input–output analysis and discuss the contribution of production fragmentation for global emissions. It is found that international production fragmentation generates global emissions savings. The intermediate product trade has a negative balance of avoided emissions. The final product trade becomes increasingly less environmentally effective during the period 1995–2009. There are significant differences in the environmental effects of different trade patterns for each country.     

GMS电力贸易中心运行机制研究

随着大湄公河次区域（GMS）电力贸易的不断深化,次区域各国资源禀赋与经济发展不协调、资源得不到有效利用的矛盾逐渐显现,搭建次区域电力贸易中心并设计合理的运行机制、保证次区域内电力贸易的有效进行具有重要的现实意义。借鉴跨区域电力市场相关理论,设计了GMS电力贸易中心的机制框架,并根据次区域各国电力贸易的特点,提出了有助于GMS电力贸易中心运行的交易机制、价格机制、协调机制及风险防范机制,使GMS电力贸易中心能更好地起到优化配置次区域丰富资源的作用。     

An analytical model of Nafion™ membrane humidifier for proton exchange membrane fuel cells

This paper introduced a one-dimensional analytical model to quantitatively examine the humidifying capacity of a Nafion™ membrane humidifier. Water permeability for the Nafion™ membrane was calculated, depending on the thickness of the Nafion™ membrane. Relative humidity for a carrier gas passed through the Nafion™ membrane humidifier was simulated at various gas flow rates, which showed good agreement with experimental data. Simulations were also conducted to predict humidity levels as a function of length and height of the gas flow channel. This analytical model can be used in future work to properly design Nafion™ membrane humidifiers for use in PEM fuel cell systems.     

Energy perspective of Sino-US trade imbalance in global supply chains

The unprecedented global supply chain fragmentation brings an ever-increasing trade imbalance in terms of monetary flows between China and the United States. Associated with the bilateral trade imbalance is the reallocation of resources utilization and environmental stress. In this regard, this study presents an embodied energy model to investigate impacts of Sino-US trade imbalance on global energy use during 2000–2014. Distinguished from previous studies that only evaluate the Sino-US trade based on specific bilateral perspective, this study probes into overall impacts of the Sino-US trade on global primary energy use pattern from the perspective of global supply chains for the first time. A boost to eastbound trade and distinct export industrial structures fuel the unprecedented growth of Sino-US embodied energy trade imbalance, accounting for more than half of the total energy transfers embodied in Sino-US trade. Such imbalance firstly increases sharply from 1956.0 PJ in 2000 to 5265.3 PJ in 2006, followed by a short term decrease to hit a low point at 3267.7 PJ in 2009 because of financial crisis and then a gradual resuscitation with a slower pace in the following years. The exported energy embodied in manufacturing products dominates eastbound flows, whereas energy embodied in agricultural products, technology intensive products and primary energy commodities constitute majority of westbound flows. Due to the dispersed production process in global value chains, more than half of primary energy use embodied in the bilateral trade is geographically exploited in other economies along the supply chain (i.e., Europe, the Middle East and South Asia). Furthermore, security of energy supply is evaluated for the two economies. The results can help predict potential influences of trade conflicts on global energy extraction, illustrating policy implications to make Sino-US trade in line with global energy conservation goals. Considering Sino-US trade's impacts along complex supply chains, distinctive domestic energy conservation measures should give way to global collective and inclusive governance.     

Developments in international solid biofuel trade—An analysis of volumes,policies, and market factors

This paper presents and analyses international solid biofuel trade and concludes upon interactions with bioenergy policies and market factors. It shows that trade has grown from about 56 to 300 PJ between 2000 and 2010. Wood pellets grew strongest, i.e. from 8.5 to 120 PJ. Other relevant streams by 2010 included wood waste (77 PJ), fuelwood (76 PJ), wood chips (17 PJ), residues (9 PJ), and roundwood (2.4 PJ). Intra-EU trade covered two thirds of global trade by 2010. Underlying markets are highly heterogeneous; generally though trade evolved whenever supply side market factors coincided with existing/emerging demand patterns. Market factors and policies both defined trade volumes; though policy changes did not have as prominent effects on trade developments as in the liquid biofuel sector. Economic viability is the key limiting factor. Main exporting countries have low feedstock costs and already existing wood processing industries. Trade-relevant aspects are the commodity's monetary value; determined by its homogeneity, heating value, and bulk density. Consumer markets are diverse: in residential heating, demand/trade patterns have been influenced by local biofuel availability and short-term price signals, i.e. mainly price competitiveness and investment support for boilers/stoves. Commodities are mainly sourced regionally, but price differences have triggered a growing trade. The industrial segment is greatly influenced by policy frameworks but more mature (e.g. established routes). Trade is strictly linked to margins (defined mainly by policies) and combustion technologies. Uncertainties in the analysis are due to data gaps across and within databases regarding import/export declarations. To estimate bioenergy related trade, anecdotal data was indispensable. We believe datasets should be streamlined across international institutions to eventually enable reporting of global trade beyond digit-6-level. Research is needed to provide further insights into informal markets. Interrelations between trade factors are particularly relevant when mapping future trade streams under different policy/trade regime scenarios.     

试论我国大型煤炭企业的贸易行为

煤炭企业贸易特指煤炭企业依托煤炭销售和物资采购的有利条件,把煤炭销售和物资采购同企业内外部的商品交易活动结合起来,把单一的煤炭销售、物资采购行为转变成立体的、多品种、多层次的商业交易行为。目的是增加煤炭企业的利润。故可以把煤炭企业的贸易分为外部贸易和内部贸易。从创造企业价值方面看,侧重于企业的外部贸易。     

Output,renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and international trade: Evidence from a panel of 69 countries

This paper uses panel cointegration techniques to examine the causal relationship between output, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, and international trade for a sample of 69 countries during the period 1980–2010. In the short-run, Granger causality tests show that there is a bidirectional causality between output and trade (exports or imports), a bidirectional causality between non-renewable energy and trade, and a one way causality running from renewable energy to trade. In the long-run, a bidirectional causality between renewable energy and trade, is noticed. Our long-run ordinary least squares (OLS), fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimates suggest that renewable, non-renewable energy consumption and trade have a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth. Our energy policy recommendations are the following: i) any non-renewable energy policy should take into account the importance of international trade, ii) more renewable energy use should be encouraged by national and international competent authorities in order to increase international economic exchanges and promote economic growth without harming the environment, and iii) increasing trade is a good vehicle for renewable energy technology transfer and contributes to increase renewable energy consumption in the long-run, thus contributing to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.     

Carbon dioxide emissions and trade: Evidence from disaggregate trade data

The relationship between trade and environmental quality is a major controversial issue. The paper intends to provide robust evidence and new insights into the discussion. Specifically, it examines the effect of trade on carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) systematically in a North-North, North-South, South-North, and South-South context. It employs a panel data instrumental-variable quantile approach to control for endogeneity and account for potential (quantile) parameter heterogeneity. Some important results emerge. First, trade with the North increases CO₂ emissions whereas trade with the South mitigates CO₂ emissions with a relatively larger effect for less polluted host countries. Second, for advanced countries, their trade with the South or the North leads to a reduction in CO₂ emissions, the effect that seems relatively stronger for less polluted advanced countries. Third, for developing countries, their trade with the North worsens CO₂ emissions whereas their trade with the South mitigates CO₂ emissions with a larger effect for less polluted developing countries. Last, the environmental Kuznets hypothesis is also detected across quantiles for the full sample and both developing and advanced countries subsamples. The findings suggest that trade benefits the advanced countries but could hurt the developing countries when trade with high-income trading partners occurs, in terms of CO₂ emissions.     

The evolution of hard coal trade in the Atlantic market

This article analyses the evolution of hard coal trade in West-Europe, known as the Atlantic market, from the 1980s to the end of 2002. It investigates the development of trade pattern, nature of contracts, price setting, supply–demand and the future of trade.     

Environmentally damaging electricity trade

Electricity trade across regions is often considered welfare enhancing. We show in this paper that this should be reconsidered if environmental externalities are taken into account. We consider two cases where trade is beneficial, before accounting for environmental damages: first, when two regions with the same technology display some demand heterogeneity; second when one region endowed with hydropower arbitrages with its “thermal” neighbor. Our results show that under reasonable demand and supply elasticities, trade comes with an additional environmental cost. This calls for integrating environmental externalities into market reforms when redesigning the electricity sector. Two North American applications illustrate our results: trade between Pennsylvania and New York, and trade between hydro-rich Quebec and New York.