中国能源温室气体排放与可持续发展

全球气候变化对经济社会的可持续发展带来严重挑战。影响温室气体排放的因素主要有经济增长、人口、能源消费强度、能源结构等。预计中国2005～2020年GDP年均增长率为8.0%～8.6%。基准情景下,中国2050年能源需求总量达到66.19×108t标煤,人均能源消费量4.4t标煤,CO2排放量117.3×108t,能源消费弹性系数0.42,2020年CO2排放强度比2005年下降43%～48%;减排情景下,中国2050年能源消费量50.4×108t标煤,人均能源消费量3.5t标煤左右,CO2排放量70.7×108t,人均CO2排放量4.8t左右,能源消费弹性系数0.32,2020年CO2排放强度比2005年下降48%～52%,若能实现减排情景,则意味着中国已做到了低碳经济;而从可预见的技术条件以及清洁能源和可再生能源利用的规模来看,实现低碳情景难度很大。中国正处于工业化中期的发展阶段,能源需求增加是客观存在的,应力争转变经济增长方式,优化产业与产品结构,减少与控制高耗能产品出口,提高非化石能源比重和能源利用效率。发展中国家在应对全球气候变化行动中应制定中、短期目标与长期目标。中、短期目标即相对减排,中国政府制定的2020年CO2排放强度相对2005年降低40%～45%的约束性目标就属于相对减排;长期目标指的是当发展中国家实现工业化后,若全球技术发展迅猛,这时发展中国家温室气体的总量控制与减排才有可能做到。     

英国成为全球第一个立法确定减排目标国家

英国众议院2008年11月19目批准一项议案,决定在2050年前将温室气体排放量减少80％。这使得英国成为世界上第一个以立法框架确定减排目标的国家。 英国气候变化大臣埃德·米利班德表示,这项议案使英国成为世界气候政策的领导者,“这是世界上第一份关于减排的法律,将使政府从法律义务上实践减排目标。到2050年,温室气体排放减少80％。这给欧洲和世界的气候谈判传递了明确的信息,采取严肃的行动是可能的。”     

低碳发展时代的世界与中国能源格局

哥本哈根会议认定了"2℃"和"在2050年前全球排放量减到1990年的一半",到2050年,碳减排要求世界人均能耗不高于2.5t标煤/a。能源碳强度ω是一个反映碳排放与能源结构关系的新指标,利用它与一次能源消费中生成并排放二氧化碳的各种形式能源所占比率γ的关联式ω=2.4γ进行推算:按照450情景方案,二氧化碳排放峰值307×108t出现在2020年,而能耗峰值在2030年左右;按照丹麦方案,二氧化碳排放峰值320×108t出现在2025年,能耗峰值也大约在2030年,将达到273×108t标煤/a,人均3.3t标煤/a。碳排放峰值年越推迟,达到2050年远期目标的难度越大。按照丹麦方案,2030~2050年的20年间,需平均每年减排10×108t二氧化碳,同时与450情景方案相比,大气中二氧化碳总量将增加400×108t以上。根据中国政府宣布的2010~2020年的减排目标推算,2020年能耗为41×108t标煤,二氧化碳排放约74×108t,中国只要能做到能耗强度每5年降低20%,就能够实现此目标。中国应在2020年之前快速发展非化石能源、加速产业转型、大力发展天然气、大幅提高能效,这样就完全能够与世界减排同行。     

《哥本哈根协议》现状与气候谈判前景

世界瞩目的哥本哈根气候大会在跌宕起伏中落幕后,依然精彩不断。截至2010年2月底,有106个国家或表示加入《哥本哈根协议》,或提交了国家减排目标和行动。其中发达国家各自提出的减排目标依然薄弱,没有达到减缓气候变化所需的25%～40%的减排幅度。对于未来国际应对气候变化进程有可能为三种情景:启动《哥本哈根协议》、按照巴厘路线图继续双轨制谈判和公约下形成新的单一法律文件。     

国际可再生能源新闻

综合类欧盟发布2050年实现减排目标"能源路线图"2011年12月15日,欧盟委员会在布鲁塞尔发布"2050能源路线图",即实现欧盟到2050年碳排放量比1990年下降80%～95%这一目标的具体路径。据欧委会介绍,欧盟将通过四种路径的组合来实现这一目标:提高能源利用效率、发展可再生     

美国2050年实现净零排放的气候战略及启示

美国长期气候战略报告公布了2050年前实现净零排放目标的技术路线图，阐明其实现2050年净零排放气候战略目标的三大时间节点、四大战略支柱、五大关键领域等，指明了未来发展方向和目标。美国实现2050年温室气体净零排放的主要途径有“电力清洁零碳、能源结构替碳、节能增效降碳、非二气体减碳、生态系统汇碳和地下空间封碳”等。建议充分借鉴美国碳中和经验做法，加强中国碳中和情景综合研究和关键领域减排贡献研判，形成共识凝聚合力，探索一条适合中国国情的碳中和道路。     

德国法兰克福市100%可再生能源发展之路及启示

德国法兰克福市是全球低碳和100%可再生能源城市行动计划的先行者。在详实的可行性研究的基础上,2015年法兰克福市议会批准了"法兰克福市100%气候保护总体规划",提出到2050年实现能源消费总量减少50%、温室气体减排95%、100%可再生能源的城市发展目标。本文分析了法兰克福100%可再生能源城市发展目标的形成路径;重点介绍了2050年100%气候保护总体规划的可行性研究工作,包括分行业能源需求总量的控制和目标、100%可再生能源供应情景研究和供应方案的确定、保障措施等;并提出了我国建设100%可再生能源城市的思考和建议。     

气候变化谈判与行动

本文分析了1997年《京都议定书》签署以来,国际气候变化的政治生态发生的巨大的变化,使气候变化谈判更加复杂和艰巨。近几年谈判进展迟缓,反映了金融危机和经济衰退对气候变化谈判的巨大负面影响,也反映了许多发达国家在气候变化问题上的迟疑不决和缺乏较高的政治意愿。本文指出,在气候谈判中要继续坚持共同但有区别责任的原则和公平原则,促进谈判的进展。在面对新的更大的气候变化挑战下,要选择尽早采取减排行动的方案,减少未来的巨大成本和代价。本文也提出了一些气候变化谈判策略的调整,联合绝大多数国家继续坚持谈判。贯彻实施并实现本国承诺的减排目标,是对气候谈判的最有力的支持。培养和加强中国NGO在国际气候谈判的能力建设,在全球范围内倡导超越国家承诺目标的减排行动。     

英国发布“碳计划” 完成减排量

英国政府日前发布了一份"碳计划",英国即将超额完成2020年的减排目标,如果坚持优化能源结构和技术应用,还有望实现到2050年时人均能源消耗量减半的目标英国的2020年目标是将排放量降低34%,这一目标是根     

IPCC第五次评估报告对2015协议谈判的影响分析

IPCC第五次评估第三工作组报告《气候变化2014：减缓气候变化》的重要结论涉及到包括历史责任划分、全球长期目标、各方减排目标、落实“共同但有区别的责任”原则等《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判的核心内容,将对德班平台下2015协议的谈判产生重要影响.为了能够更好的利用IPCC相关科学结论开展国际谈判和国内工作,本文辨析解读了IPCC第五次评估第三工作组报告中政策相关性较强的主要结论,分析并指出了其对国际气候谈判的可能影响.     

The impact of household behavioral changes on GHG emission reduction in Lithuania

It is commonly understood that households must change their behavior to reduce problems related increased energy consumption and climate change therefore in the search of cheap GHG emission reduction measures households are an important target group because they are responsible for more than 20% of total energy consumption in developed countries. In addition waste management and responsible consumption of products are the key issues in GHG emission reduction.The aim of the paper is to assess GHG emission reduction potential in households in terms of behavioral changes towards sustainable consumption. The review of literature on analysis of households behavioral changes impact on GHG emission reduction was performed; the daily survey of household agenda and energy use records were performed in Lithuania for two scenarios – baseline and GHG emission reduction scenario including energy saving. GHG emission reduction potential in household was assessed based on daily survey data and energy consumption records by applying carbon calculator based on modified coefficients. Evaluated GHG emission reduction potential in households was compared with GHG emission reduction potentials in other sectors of Lithuania. Based on analysis performed in the paper the tools to promote household behavioral changes towards sustainable consumption were proposed.     

Comparative assessment of future power generation technologies based on carbon price development

The long-term assessment of new electricity generation was performed for various long-run policy scenarios taking into account two main criteria: private costs and external GHG emission costs. Such policy oriented power generation technologies assessment based on carbon price and private costs of technologies can provide information on the most attractive future electricity generation technologies taking into account climate change mitigation targets and GHG emission reduction commitments for world regions.Analysis of life cycle GHG emissions and private costs of the main future electricity generation technologies performed in this paper indicated that biomass technologies except large scale straw combustion technologies followed by nuclear have the lowest life cycle GHG emission. Biomass IGCC with CO₂ capture has even negative life cycle GHG emissions. The cheapest future electricity generation technologies in terms of private costs in long-term perspective are: nuclear and hard coal technologies followed by large scale biomass combustion and biomass CHPs. The most expensive technologies in terms of private costs are: oil and natural gas technologies. As the electricity generation technologies having the lowest life cycle GHG emissions are not the cheapest one in terms of private costs the ranking of technologies in terms of competitiveness highly depend on the carbon price implied by various policy scenarios integrating specific GHG emission reduction commitments taken by countries and climate change mitigation targets.     

Feasibility analysis of GHG reduction target: Lessons from Taiwan's energy policy

It is the opinion of this study that more than 10 years of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations have been wasted on determining the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. This study discussed two approaches of GHG reduction targets: top-down approach and bottom-up. This study criticized the top-down approach for reduction target determination has created a new problem for emission reduction efforts. Using Taiwan as a case study, this study adopted the GACMO model to decompose the energy policy and analyzed the cost effectiveness of various reduction strategies. Reviewing the emission reduction measures based on the bottom-up approach is the proper way to address GHG emission reductions. Thus, the countries should refocus on implementation of reduction strategies in the spirit of the UNFCCC. Finally, this study believes that if the reduction cost curves of each nation can be made, the Bali roadmap reached through the 2007 UNFCCC COP13/MOP3 in Bali, Indonesia, can be more defined and practical.     

发达国家碳排放贸易政策对比分析

《京都议定书》第17条规定附件1国家之间可以通过排放贸易帮助其实现温室气体量化减排承诺。欧盟、新西兰、澳大利亚等附件1国家还在区域、国家和地方层面制定和实施了排放贸易政策,通过设定温室气体排放配额,并允许国家、企业和个人交易这些配额来达到成本有效地控制温室气体排放的目的。但各国的排放贸易政策存在很大差别,从政策制定过程、政策的性质、排放目标的设定、排放配额的分配、排放量的测量报告和核查以及市场运行方面都存在明显的国家或区域特征,本文旨在挖掘和分析这些特征,建立对发达国家实施排放贸易这一市场手段的更深入的理解。     

基础四国温室气体排放及未来挑战

基础四国包括中国、印度、巴西和南非,是发展中国家参与应对气候变化国际谈判与合作的重要力量.本文从研读基础四国第二次国家信息通报入手,分析比较基础四国温室气体排放情况、减排目标以及减缓措施,并提出以下几点对策建议：在谈判策略上,四国应以人均GDP和人年均二氧化碳排放为核心,形成共同立场;在减缓措施上,四国应在提高能效、发展可再生能源领域方面加强合作;在适应气候变化方面交流推广相关经验;在清单核算方面强化沟通交流.     

Gains from emission trading under multiple stabilization targets and technological constraints

This study quantified the effectiveness of emission trading by considering multiple technological constraints, burden sharing schemes, and climate stabilization targets. We used a global computable general equilibrium model, and evaluated the effectiveness of emission trading using welfare losses associated with climate mitigation for scenarios with and without emission trading, as measured by the Hicksian Equivalent Variation (HEV). We found that emission trading contributed to a reduction in the economic losses associated with climate mitigation for all technological assumptions, burden sharing schemes, and stabilization targets. The net global welfare losses in scenarios without emission trading ranged between 0.7% and 1.9%, whereas emission trading reduced the losses by 0.1% to 0.5%. The range depended on the assumptions in the burden sharing schemes, technological constraints, and stabilization targets. The percentage change in welfare gain from emission trading varied regionally, and was relatively high in low-income or middle-income countries (0.2% to 1.0% and − 0.1% to 1.2%, respectively) compared to high-income countries (− 0.1% to 0.3%). Some regions displayed negative values with regard to the effectiveness of emission trading, which might be due to the change in goods and service trades associated with emission trading. If the usage of carbon capture and storage was constrained, welfare loss became large and the effectiveness of emission trading ultimately increased. The use of a burden sharing scheme was a significant factor in changing the effectiveness of emission trading, and the per capita emission convergence in 2050 was more effective for emission trading than a per income convergence.     

Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission in long-term climate stabilization scenarios

To achieve the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, the international community will need to intensify its long-term efforts. Many EU countries have released national long-term scenarios toward 2050, and their ambitious targets for CO₂ emission reduction are aiming at a decrease of more than 50% of today's emission. In April 2004, Japan began a research project on its long-term climate policy. This paper discusses the long-term scenarios in other countries and the medium-term scenarios in Japan to support the development of a Japan's long-term climate stabilization scenario. In this study, CO₂ emission is decomposed with an extended Kaya identity (indexes: CO₂ capture and storage, carbon intensity, energy efficiency, energy intensity, economic activity) and a Reduction Balance Table is developed.     

Emission intensity in New Zealand manufacturing and the short-run impacts of emissions pricing

This paper reports the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of the New Zealand (NZ) manufacturing sector at a combination of industry group and class levels (sub-sectors). The short-run impacts of a price on emissions are investigated with a focus on exporting activities. Sub-sectors that could be materially impacted by an expected range of emissions prices accounted for slightly over 9% of national gross domestic product. It is found that there is much variability of emission intensity within manufacturing and even within sub-sectors. An assessment of trade intensities further indicates that several emissions-intensive activities are also export-intensive. These activities are at most risk of losing competitiveness in the short-run if they are subjected to a price on GHG emissions that their competitors in other countries are not. Emissions reduction policies must take account of trade competitiveness imperatives if NZ is to meet its international GHG emissions target while maintaining manufacturing sector competitiveness.     

Croatia energy planning and Kyoto Protocol

Croatia as an Annex I country of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and a country that has pledged in the Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its GHG emissions by 5% will have to envisage a new energy strategy. Compared to the energy consumption collapse in some transitional countries, Croatia has passed through a relatively short-term reduction of GHG emissions since 1990 because of higher energy efficiency of its pretransition economy. It is expected that in case of baseline scenario, it will breach the Kyoto target in 2003. Several scenarios of power generation are compared from the point of view of GHG emissions. The cost-effective scenario expects a mixture of coal and gas fired power plants to be built to satisfy the new demand and to replace the old power plants that are being decommissioned. More Kyoto friendly scenario envisages forcing the compliance with the Protocol with measures only in power generation sector by the construction of mainly zero emission generating capacity in the future, while decommissioning the old plants as planned, and is compared to the others from the GHG emissions point of view. The conclusion is that by measures tackling only power generation, it will not be possible to keep GHG emission under the Kyoto target level. The case of including the emissions from Croatian owned power plants in former Yugoslavia is also discussed.     

The Triptych approach revisited: A staged sectoral approach for climate mitigation

The Triptych approach is a method for allocating future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions among countries under a post-2012 international climate mitigation regime based on technological criteria at the sector level, and accounting for structural differences. The emission allowances are decomposed according to sectors, thereby enabling the link to real-world emission reduction strategies to be more concrete. The new Triptych approach presented here is a refinement of an earlier version in terms of an increased transparency and allowing a delayed participation for developing countries (initial participation of developing countries with incentives but no penalties through ‘no lose’ targets or sustainable development policies and measures). For this article we calculated the emission reductions for countries for two technology-oriented scenarios, which stabilize GHG concentrations at 450 and 550 ppm CO₂-eq, respectively. The reductions are ambitious, but nonetheless compatible with existing technical reduction potentials as growth is allowed but efficiency has to be improved.